Retro Player of the Year 1972-73 UPDATE — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

[One_and_Done]

That's a weird response.

Nah wierd is opening with "consistent MVP performance" and completely sidestepping that Cowens mollywhops 3 of your top 5 in "consistent MVP performance".

Obviously when I said the Celtics were still good without Cowens I was talking about the early years with a still good Havlicek, not 77 to 79. Once you remove them from the sample the Celtics were a positive win team without Cowens.

And what is your point? He had top 3-5 impact on a "positive win team" then he had top 3-5 impact on a "bad team". Explain to me how that adds up to "not top 5"?

How does the team's success in Hondo's final years and after, or lack thereof, indicate a top 3-5 impact on a bad team? Rather, it suggests without Havlicek he couldn't carry the team.

[OhayoKD]

That's a weird response.

Nah wierd is opening with "consistent MVP performance" and completely sidestepping that Cowens mollywhops 3 of your top 5 in "consistent MVP performance".

Obviously when I said the Celtics were still good without Cowens I was talking about the early years with a still good Havlicek, not 77 to 79. Once you remove them from the sample the Celtics were a positive win team without Cowens.

And what is your point? He had top 3-5 impact on a "positive win team" then he had top 3-5 impact on a "bad team". Explain to me how that adds up to "not top 5"?

How does the team's success in Hondo's final years and after, or lack thereof, indicate a top 3-5 impact on a bad team? Rather, it suggests without Havlicek he couldn't carry the team.

Read better.

The Celtics without Cowens were bad. With Cowens they were good. Aka: Carrying a team.

Perhaps the consistent top 3-5 MVP voting actually makes sense for the player who was consistently showing top 3-5 lift?

[AEnigma]

That's a weird response. Obviously when I said the Celtics were still good without Cowens I was talking about the early years with a still good Havlicek, not 77 to 79. Once you remove them from the sample the Celtics were a positive win team without Cowens.

How does the team's success in Hondo's final years and after, or lack thereof, indicate a top 3-5 impact on a bad team? Rather, it suggests without Havlicek he couldn't carry the team. Would they have been a 500 team if you took out Havlicek and kept Cowens? I kind of doubt it, because of what happened once Havlicek fell off and retired.

The 1973-77 Celtics were 9-8 without Havlicek before he retired (or I suppose 9-9 counting the double overtime road playoff loss to the Knicks).

Yes, Havlicek was missed in 1979. So was their entire power forward rotation, with Wicks, Washington, and Boswell all gone, replaced by a miserable group of defensive players in Tiny, Knight, and “Bad News” Barnes. Jo Jo White was traded midseason for a draft pick, and then Cowens missed an extra nine games:

32-45 in 1978 (Havlicek present) = 34-win pace
27-41 in 1979 (no Havlicek) = 32.5-win pace

They would have been better with him, but that is not a noteworthy change, no — and it is notably smaller than what we see from rookie Cowens, and also notably smaller than the effect of Paul Silas joining the team in 1973 and leaving the team in 1977, despite how badly you want to act as if that signal actually speaks to Havlicek “dropping off” instead.

[One_and_Done]

I'm not even sure who was better between Havlicek and Cowens, and have said so, but the limited signals we do have could actually indicate Cowens was the less important of the 2. As I said, it's tough to be sure because Hondo was so damn healthy, but the way the team fell off as he got older and then retired certainly isn't a great look for Cowens.

[OhayoKD]

I'm not even sure who was better between Havlicek and Cowens, and have said so, but the limited signals we do have could actually indicate Cowens was the less important of the 2. As I said, it's tough to be sure because Hondo was so damn healthy, but the way the team fell off as he got older and then retired certainly isn't a great look for Cowens.

Why do you keep comparing cowens to hondo instead of...you know...the people you're actually voting over him

[One_and_Done]

Well the only one I've heard real pushback on is Frazier, and as I noted in an earlier thread Frazier's record leading the Knicks without Reed was really good. I don't think having Frazier above Cowens is a particularly controversial opinion.

[penbeast0]

One of our good posters, TrueLAFan I believe, had a series of posts in an earlier project about how the media strongly favored Willis Reed over Walt Frazier in the MVP/finals MVP voting when all signals indicated they were close during the first title run and Frazier was clearly the leader in the second title run. Frazier's "street" image hurt him with the old time voters while Reed was not triggering in that sense. Cowens is an even stronger argument. He was white, there may have been (not saying there was but it's a possibility) racist voting going on for MVP in that sense as well.

[Dr Positivity]

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: He was by far the best player in RS to me and he went against the worst defensive matchup of all time for him which accounts for some of the gap in playoff performance.

2. Walt Frazier - One of the better offensive players in the league and great D, Reed didn't give them much until the finals so beating very solid Bullets team and Celtics was hard even with Havlicek injury for the latter, and they had advantage in series even before that.

3. Wilt Chamberlain - He may have been going for FG% stat a bit but was still valuable there while being great defender and solid passer.

4. Dave Cowens - I see him as KG/Draymond type defender in the wrong era for it, nonetheless still has nice impact on that end with passing and upped his scoring in Rd 2. 68 Ws is a lot, whlie players like Silas and Chaney are no doubt non boxscore heroes, I also think White was overrated.

5. Artis Gilmore - Gilmore seems to be the most valuable ABA player at this point over Erving when considering efficiency, defense, etc.

Offensive player of the year

1. Tiny Archibald
2. Walt Frazier
3. Jerry West

Weird Tiny can't get in with pretty easy #1 offensive player of the year, but hard to knock off those three bigs.

Defensive player of the year

1. Wilt Chamberlain
2. Dave Cowens
3. Dave DeBusschere

[ShaqAttac]

THURMOND

Huge impact on good team and cooks a top 3 OAT. Prob the DPOY.

COWENS

Big impact like Thurmond 68 wins and wins MVP takes champs to 7 with great D and good O.

KAREEM

Best rs player and prob the most impact but cant be 1 when you choke 1st round of playoffs

WILT
Chokes again but still leads team to final and teammate injured.

GILMORE
Great D and good O and cooks doctor J and nearly wins. Also 2nd in MVP vote.

[falcolombardi]

It feels weird to reward kareem for a relatively unimpressive season achievent wise but no one is comparable to him as a player

This is like 2011 lebron but no wade or dirk to bridge the gap

[Dutchball97]

Player of the Year
1. Walt Frazier - His scoring in the finals wasn't the best, which makes it harder to confidently put his season over some of the other serious contenders but overall I do think he firmly had the best overall season. To be fair I've never really rated players with dominant regular seasons and subpar post-seasons so I don't really see Kareem as a real option for #1 here. It might be just 1 post-season series but if **** the bed like that doesn't have an impact on regular season performance then we might as well ignore the post-season completely. Frazier had a top 5 regular season and a very strong play-off run without a real running mate. Having such consistent 2-way impact helps his case significantly with him carrying the Knicks to the best post-season offense putting the stamp on it for me.

2. Wilt Chamberlain - Similar situation as Frazier here as Wilt was one of the top defenders in the regular season and once again seperated himself from the pack in the post-season. I do admit his scoring wasn't particularly helpful but like I've said previously, it doesn't make sense to eliminate arguably the best defender in the league just because of lackluster post-season scoring when comparing how votes went in previous rounds. With the second best regular season behind Kareem he was poised to get the top spot here but he had an even more disappointing finals than Frazier as well as imo more help from his teammates, while also playing in the weaker conference so Frazier holds on to that top spot but I can't justify to put Wilt below Kareem.

3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Feels like I'm being generous as a play-offs performance like that usually boots players right off my ballot, especially considering Kareem's regular season advantage isn't as big over his competition as the previous 2 years. The Bucks did hold up decently enough on both sides of the floor though, while Kareem was matched up against a tough out for him in Thurmond. A combination of not completely collapsing as well as a pretty weak field this season is enough for Kareem to at least stay in the top 5.

4. Dave Cowens - Cowens had a good season with him winning MVP and taking the eventual champs to 7 but I'm not really seeing the same "clear impact" as some of the other voters. In the regular season I'd say Cowens is the 1A with Havlicek as the 1B but with Cowens taking more primacy in the post-season the offense gets better but the #1 defense regresses to about average. With post-season stats it's always important to take into account small sample sizes and opposition but I'm not seeing a top player in the league in him tbh.

5. Artis Gilmore - Similarly dominant in the regular season as last year and while still not as convincing in the play-offs, he had a significantly deeper run than last year. I do think he has the best season in the ABA this season, which this time around is just enough to sneak on the ballot.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Walt Frazier
2. Billy Cunningham
3. Tiny Archibald

It's an odd year all over the place tbh. I went with Frazier 1st because of the Knicks' post-season dominance on that end. With Frazier being the leading scorer and leading playmaker on the Knicks as well as being very efficienct, it seems pretty clear to me this is mainly because of him. Cunningham leads the top offense in both the regular season and play-offs in the ABA. Tiny Archibald went off in the regular season, leading the Kings to the best offense in the league while posting ridiculous offensive numbers. He'd have likely been number 1 if the Kings made the play-offs.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Wilt Chamberlain
2. Artis Gilmore
3. Dave Cowens

I think Wilt is the clear defensive standout this year with the Lakers being among the top defenses in the regular season and leaving everyone in the dust in the post-season. Gilmore once again led the Colonels to the best defense in the ABA and held up much better in the play-offs this time around. The last spot mostly came down to Cowens, Kareem, Thurmond and Daniels but I wanted to reward Cowens for being the most consistent.

[AEnigma]

Odd to see Thurmond be a general consensus DPoY #2 last year… and now that he pulls off the Bucks upset, suddenly he is off that ballot for multiple people.

[Dutchball97]

Odd to see Thurmond be a general consensus DPoY #2 last year… and now that he pulls off the Bucks upset, suddenly he is off that ballot for multiple people.

This is mostly because of how good the Warriors are relative to the league this season, which isn't as good as last year. Another reason is Kareem not struggling nearly as much against Wilt as against Thurmond in 72, this really made it look like Kareem was just about unstoppable, except for Thurmond. Now in 73 Kareem didn't give us a chance to compare Thurmond's performance on him vs anyone else as they quickly got eliminated, while Thurmond didn't look particularly impressive on either side of the ball against the Lakers in the next round.

I don't think it's as simple as 72 and 73 being the exact same quality but now he also gets a round further.

[Owly]

I too won't have Kareem #1 this year and I'm a big Kareem guy. Getting upset in the 1st round by an average team and playing like crap won't cut it to get the top spot for me. Not to mention he didn't build nearly as large a gap in the RS like he did in 1972.

Criteria will differ ...

It's a really ugly shooting series and as a result an ugly series on the box-side versus especially his high level expectations. He is still outshooting his matchup from the field with a higher creation burden. Versus expectations that's a win for Thurmond. But it's not necessarily a given that Thurmond outplayed him in the series. KAJ has a substantial rebounding lead (obviously hard to know how many are safe "team" rebounds and how many added significant value - we don't even have off, def split). Obviously the non-box stuff of that time leaves a fair bit of a gap, which without watching leaves significant uncertainty. Thurmond is a great defender ... the following is team level but fwiw away from the noise of a single series of shooting ... Milwaukee posted their best relDrtg of this run and their second best ever (to 2020) of -5.7 so it's not implausible KAJ still performed well on D (perhaps more than Nate).

They are upset but this misses the context that they outscore GS on the series with GS's first three wins coming by 3, 5 and 3 points respectively.

As summaries go ...
"an average team" 3.12 SRS is "average". No matter how one is bucketing ... that isn't even "above average"?

It's a tough matchup for him.
It's a real bad time to shoot .543 from the line (a close series, and for the purposes of this exercise, gives him a first round out and all his playoff production done versus a Thurmond team).
His production (in a limited boxscore) in this small sample (versus a particular opponent) is pedestrian in absolute terms and very far below his norms. This is because of bad shooting.
It depends what you care about.

For "a Kareem guy" the framing ("crap", "average") seems a little ungenerous.

3.12 SRS is admittedly better than I thought the Warriors were. Still Bucks were a 7.84 SRS team. It was a horrible upset. It was a close series as you said but Warriors had no business beating the Bucks that year.

And yes I will stick with "crap" performance too. 22.8/16.2/2.8 on -3.5 rTS is awful. It's not terrible to still vote Kareem #1 this year if you value RS more but I won't. It wouldn't be consistent with my general criteria. And yes I know the context of his brethren being killed in DC and how it affected him psychologically. Kareem will still be on my ballot just not #1.

My issue on the latter point would be
1) Related to the discussion above it isn't clear if that's absolute terms or versus expectations. I'd disagree in absolute terms. And I think relative terms is to hold his RS against him.
2) Related to the discussion above ... a slashline isn't the player. And I would, if forced, guess that Kareem provided significant defensive value in the series or otherwise hold that as my first level approximation allowing for uncertainty.

Marginal, clarity point ... "And yes I will stick with "crap" performance too." Does that mean you're sticking with GSW as "average"? It didn't read as though you were initially but to have "too" referring back to the first para, after "stick" as the main verb. It makes perfect sense without it so it seems like an explicit choice to include it and reach back to the other point debated and to say "and I stick by this as well". But then that doesn't really fit with what you wrote in the first paragraph (as I read it, at least).

[Djoker]

Criteria will differ ...

It's a really ugly shooting series and as a result an ugly series on the box-side versus especially his high level expectations. He is still outshooting his matchup from the field with a higher creation burden. Versus expectations that's a win for Thurmond. But it's not necessarily a given that Thurmond outplayed him in the series. KAJ has a substantial rebounding lead (obviously hard to know how many are safe "team" rebounds and how many added significant value - we don't even have off, def split). Obviously the non-box stuff of that time leaves a fair bit of a gap, which without watching leaves significant uncertainty. Thurmond is a great defender ... the following is team level but fwiw away from the noise of a single series of shooting ... Milwaukee posted their best relDrtg of this run and their second best ever (to 2020) of -5.7 so it's not implausible KAJ still performed well on D (perhaps more than Nate).

They are upset but this misses the context that they outscore GS on the series with GS's first three wins coming by 3, 5 and 3 points respectively.

As summaries go ...
"an average team" 3.12 SRS is "average". No matter how one is bucketing ... that isn't even "above average"?

It's a tough matchup for him.
It's a real bad time to shoot .543 from the line (a close series, and for the purposes of this exercise, gives him a first round out and all his playoff production done versus a Thurmond team).
His production (in a limited boxscore) in this small sample (versus a particular opponent) is pedestrian in absolute terms and very far below his norms. This is because of bad shooting.
It depends what you care about.

For "a Kareem guy" the framing ("crap", "average") seems a little ungenerous.

3.12 SRS is admittedly better than I thought the Warriors were. Still Bucks were a 7.84 SRS team. It was a horrible upset. It was a close series as you said but Warriors had no business beating the Bucks that year.

And yes I will stick with "crap" performance too. 22.8/16.2/2.8 on -3.5 rTS is awful. It's not terrible to still vote Kareem #1 this year if you value RS more but I won't. It wouldn't be consistent with my general criteria. And yes I know the context of his brethren being killed in DC and how it affected him psychologically. Kareem will still be on my ballot just not #1.

My issue on the latter point would be
1) Related to the discussion above it isn't clear if that's absolute terms or versus expectations. I'd disagree in absolute terms. And I think relative terms is to hold his RS against him.
2) Related to the discussion above ... a slashline isn't the player. And I would, if forced, guess that Kareem provided significant defensive value in the series or otherwise hold that as my first level approximation allowing for uncertainty.

Marginal, clarity point ... "And yes I will stick with "crap" performance too." Does that mean you're sticking with GSW as "average"? It didn't read as though you were initially but to have "too" referring back to the first para, after "stick" as the main verb. It makes perfect sense without it so it seems like an explicit choice to include it and reach back to the other point debated and to say "and I stick by this as well". But then that doesn't really fit with what you wrote in the first paragraph (as I read it, at least).

A slashline obviously isn't everything but it is still a major way to evaluate individual performance.

GSW is definitely above average (as opposed to average as I mistakenly stated at first) but I don't think that warrants a change in my overall conclusion that Kareem had a crap postseason. He performed poorly from an individual standpoint and dragged his team to getting upset.

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Walt Frazier - 2nd Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Led the Knicks to a title behind a very strong PS. Along with the prior year, this is his peak as a player. Averaged 21.1/7.3/5.9 on 53.4 %TS (+3.6 rTS) in the RS then 21.9/7.3/6.2 on 55.9 %TS (+7.8 rTS). In the PS he faced three elite defensive teams and still elevated his performance. And he was particularly impressive in the ECF against the Celtics which was the only truly difficult series for the Knicks with averages of 26.1/7.3/6.3 on 57.8 %TS (+10.2 rTS).

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1st Team All-NBA. Should have been RS MVP in my eyes. It's hard to argue that Kareem is not the BEST player in the league and I tried but I couldn't give #1 after a horrible PS showing he had. The Bucks lost as heavy favorites in the WCSF to Thurmond's Warriors and Kareem had a terrible individual performance. Averaged 30.2/16.1/5.0 on 58.0 %TS (+8.2 rTS) in the RS then 22.8/16.2/2.8 on 44.7 %TS (-3.5 rTS) in the PS.

3. Dave Cowens - 2nd Team All-NBA. Seems difficult to justify Cowens' MVP given Kareem's huge superiority on the offensive end. It was a classic case of voter fatigue and voters wanted to reward Cowens for the Celtics' impressive 68-win season (although their SRS was lower than that of the Bucks and Lakers). Dave was a bonafide hustle player and extremely durable but I don't buy that he's anywhere close to the best or most impactful player in the league. In fact it's hard for me to discern if he or Havlicek was the Celtics best player. He did carry the Celtics without Hondo in the PS and did an admirable job in those few games against the Knicks even if in a losing effort. Averaged 20.5/16.2/4.1 on 48.1 %TS (-1.7 rTS) in the RS then 21.9/16.6/3.7 on 49.0 %TS (+1.7 rTS) in the PS. At the end of the day, I see Kareem's RS as much better and Cowens' PS as maybe a bit better than Kareem's. He still isn't a very efficient offensive player and I don't even buy that he's a superior defender to Cap whose much greater size allows for contesting more shots.

4. Tiny Archibald - 1st Team All-NBA. Historic RS statistically leading the league in both scoring and assists while captaining the #1 offense. The Kings missed the playoffs because of their putrid defense and we can point out Tiny's major deficiencies on that end but it seems unfair to blame him too much for that. Averaged 34.0/2.8/11.4 on 55.5 %TS (+5.7 rTS). I wonder if he has a case for higher on the list too because with those teammates, I'm not sure anyone could have done much more.

5. Jerry West - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Basically a slightly lesser version of Walt Frazier at this point and didn't win the title either. Also missed a couple of RS games. Averaged 22.8/4.2/8.8 on 53.3 %TS (+3.5 rTS) in the RS then 23.6/4.5/7.8 on 51.2 %TS (+3.1 rTS) in the PS.

HM:

John Havlicek - 1st Team All-NBA and 1st Team All-Defense. Co-anchored the Celtics but injured in the PS drops him off the list.

Wilt Chamberlain - 1st Team All-Defense. Defensive specialist at this point. Not able to take advantage of weak Knicks frontline a major story of the Finals.

OPOY

1. Tiny Archibald - Huge combo of scoring and playmaking. Anchored the #1 offense.

2. Walt Frazier - Very good efficiency in the PS.

3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Great RS scoring volume and efficiency but a terrible PS.

DPOY

1. Wilt Chamberlain - Anchored the #3 defense. Still a huge paint protector and elite rebounder.

2. Dave Cowens - Anchored the #1 defense. Won MVP based on his defense and rebounding but couldn't protect the paint like Wilt.

3. Nate Thurmond - Anchored the #6 defense. Put a serious clamp on Kareem in the PS.

[One_and_Done]

How guys like Billy Cunningham or Frazier rank ahead of Dr J for offensive potency I will never know.

[AEnigma]

Passing.

[One_and_Done]

It's not Dr J's fault his Squire's team mates sucked.

[ardee]

PoY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: This is kind of like a 2010 LeBron year. Far and away the best RS player, has a relatively poor Playoff series but no one else is in the ballpark for impact to overcome him.

2. Walt Frazier: kind of the default pick, best player on the champs, very efficient for his time and also still one of the best defensive guards of all time.

3. Wilt Chamberlain: he's worse than the previous year because I think his offensive impact actually declined as a consequence of the goal to be hyper-efficient, but he still led the Lakers to 60 wins and an 8.2 SRS with West clearly somewhat diminished now.

4. Dave Cowens: just going by SRS I don't think the Celtics were as good as their win total suggests, but either ways the return to contention is clearly driven by Cowens' improvement and he deserves to be top 5 here.

5. Artis Gilmore: was gonna vote for the Doctor here based purely on raw numbers, but when I look into it a bit more Gilmore likely still had him on overall impact. LA Bird's post was particularly convincing

OPoY

1. Nate Archibald
2. Walt Frazier
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

DPoY

1. Wilt Chamberlain
2. Dave Cowens
3. Nate Thurmond