Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

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Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 

Post#1 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 23, 2024 6:42 pm

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 1973-74.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 12:00pm PST on Thursday, September 26th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:07 pm

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Rick Barry
2. Calvin Murphy
3. Julius Erving


Thought about this a little more, and I was definitely over-penalising the postseason absences for this award relative to how I will vote next year. Barry not bringing the Warriors to the postseason in Thurmond’s absence is why he has no case for Player of the Year, but solely on offence, I like him more than Erving and Havlicek, and probably more than this version of Frazier and Kareem too. Similar premise with Calvin Murphy; no real case for Frazier above him offensively this year, and it is not like Murphy was some ineffectual playoff performer where I could just attribute that to empty production. And then Erving can take third for securing his title and for being a more reliable ballhandler/creator than Kareem was.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Dave Cowens
3. Elvin Hayes


Kareem has what I consider his best defensive season. Cowens earns second for his brilliant performance in the Finals, although generally I see the Celtics’ defence as more of an ensemble effort. And then third place goes to minute and rebound leader Elvin Hayes, with acknowledgment that Nate Thurmond would have been here if not for missing a quarter of the season and costing his team a playoff spot. Artis Gilmore toughest cut, but disappointed in the lack of postseason resistance against the Nets.

Player of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Bob Lanier
3. Dave Cowens
4. Julius Erving
5. Bob McAdoo


Kareem is again the runaway best player. Loses Game 7 of the Finals with a highly disadvantaged team. I think he was worse than Dave Cowens in that Game 7, but while I may be willing to let a full series flip where I place players, a single game is not enough to overwrite the other ~hundred. And then Bob McAdoo puts up an impressive pre-MVP season which I cannot justify any higher than fifth. Gilmore is comparatively disappointing, and McAdoo led his Braves to a far more serious series against the eventual champions than Frazier did.

The trouble for me is #2-4. Bob Lanier is my sincere pick for second-best player in the sport this year. Put him on the Celtics and I think you win a title all the same (true both this year and in 1976, although Lanier misses more time in 1976). However, Lanier is also a first round exit and trails distantly in achievement behind the other contenders here.
AEnigma wrote:The Pistons had the league’s second-best SRS (well behind the Bucks) and were a 4 defence. Lanier had career high marks in block rates and steal rates, and nearly in rebounding rate, and this was by all accounts the healthiest season of his career. 1974 was his peak defensive season, by a distance which I think comfortably secures it as his overall peak season.

Lanier finished second that season in both PIPM and BPM (and PIPM wins added and VORP), closely behind Kareem and well ahead of anyone else. Lanier also led the league in BBR’s individual defensive rating and finished third in defensive win shares (Hayes and Kareem), which you would expect from anchoring the league’s third best defence without the strong defensive support you see on the Bullets or Celtics or Bulls.
Sports Illustrated wrote:Detroit has won 10 of its 15 most recent games against .500-plus clubs, and in one heady burst clobbered the NBA's two most successful clubs, Milwaukee (twice) and Boston. These winning ways continued last week as the Pistons swept three weak opponents at Cobo before losing at Chicago 109-91. That defeat prevented Detroit from moving ahead of the Bulls into second place in the Midwest Division, easily the league's toughest, but hardly tarnished the Pistons' 33-19 record, fourth-best in the NBA.

It is defense in its many forms—trap presses, switching man-to-man and occasionally a thinly disguised zone of the sort used by most good pro teams—that has turned the Detroit Pistons, for 16 seasons one of the NBA's most persistent losers, into insistent winners. Last year Detroit ranked 10th in defense, allowing 110 points per game—and that was a six-point improvement over 1971-72. Now the Pistons have a 98.9 defensive average and are getting better with almost every game; only three of their last 13 opponents have scored as many as 100 points.

Bob Lanier was accused of having too much gut and not enough guts. Today, he is no worse than the third-best NBA center and may well be named the NBA's Most Valuable Player.
According to Lanier, it has only been in the last year that he has overcome the physical and psychological effects of the knee injury that ended his college career in 1970 when he was playing in the NCAA regionals for St. Bonaventure and fell over Villanova's (now, ironically, the Pistons') Chris Ford… The most versatile shooter among pro centers, Lanier is grinding down opponents with his inside game and wearing them out with his defense. He averages 23.9 points and 14 rebounds per game, but impressive as those numbers are, his best statistic is the Pistons' defensive average, for which he is most responsible.

Lanier is not only clogging the middle with his immense frame, but is using his unexpected quickness to move away from the basket and help Detroit's switching defense in much the same manner that last year's MVP, Dave Cowens, does for the Celtics. Twice in the Pistons' 93-89 win over Houston last week, Lanier switched onto Rocket Calvin Murphy, the smallest (5'9") and perhaps the fastest man in the league. Both times Murphy attempted to drive past Lanier, only to end up passing off in frustration when he could not get by. The next night Lanier put together one of the tidiest performances of the season as Detroit beat Seattle 94-83. He scored 27 points, grabbed 19 rebounds, had five assists, stole the ball three times and blocked seven shots. He said of that night's work: "I've had quite a few games like this so far this year, and I expect I'm going to have even more of them in the future."

The Pistons went on to lose to that Bulls team, but against the league’s top defence Lanier elevated his already impressive regular season scoring level, and the Pistons actually outscored the Bulls over the course of that seven-game road series. Unfortunately for the Pistons, it turns out winning four games matters more than outscoring in aggregate, and total wins matters more for seeding than total SRS; in a seventh game decided by two points, that Chicago home advantage may well have been the difference.
Greg Eno wrote:The Pistons lost a brutal, angry seven-game series to the Chicago Bulls in the first round. The Pistons weren't done until the final inbounds pass of Game 7, with just seconds to play and the Pistons trailing by one. But David Bing's throw-in was batted away by Dennis Awtrey. Game over. Series over. Season over.

And the tears flowed; not just for 10 year-old Greg Eno, but for Ray Scott's grown-up Pistons players.

"Yeah, we cried, too," Scott said when I told him of my crying jag. "Bob was a spartan; he did everything that we could possibly get him to do… We got beat by Clifford Ray.” Clifford Ray was a big, long-armed shot-blocker and rebounder. He was not, by any stretch, an offensive threat. Kind of like Ben Wallace that way. But, Scott said, Ray was able to match Bob Lanier's offensive production in Game 7 -- a matchup that hadn't worked in the Bulls favor in the previous six games.

In my own film watched of Lanier, I have always been impressed by his overall play, and his defence at least seems like something you could clearly build around. The 1974 postseason section which 70sFan linked was maybe the worst stretch of Pistons play you could find in that series — Pistons end the video down 34-14! — but even there you can see Lanier switching onto Van Lier and switching onto multiple players in one possession and clearly pushing the Bulls to take jumpshots (which unfortunately for Lanier and the Pistons they made at a disproportionately high rate), with the commentators highlighting how Detroit is switching everything and asking a lot of Lanier. Here we have an impact giant who can anchor a good defence, is one of the best ever big man scorers, elevates in the postseason, has great range, has good passing vision and instincts for his position (a few steps behind guys like KMalone or Walton, but well ahead of anything you see from Ewing or Gilmore or Mourning or McAdoo or Moses), fits well with a variety of teammates because of that passing and that range… Oh, and had his biggest outlier season perfectly coincide with the only year he could claim a reasonably normal level of health.
TrueLAFan wrote:This is Peak Bob Lanier. Think of it like this: Clifford Ray got all the juice for being such a great defender in the 1975 playoffs. And Ray was a very good defender. Lanier averaged 26 and 15 with 3 assists and 2 blocks in the playoff series where they were matched up.

Cowens wins the NBA title and outplays arguably peak Kareem on the road in Game 7 of the Finals. But he does have a good supporting cast, and while I can entertain him over Erving or McAdoo or Gilmore, I can more easily argue him outside the top five than I can argue him at second as a player.
Cort Reynolds wrote:In game seven of the epic 1974 NBA Finals, the Celtics faced the tall task of beating Milwaukee on the road. Buck center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in his youthful prime and enjoyed nearly a six-inch height advantage - which was probably close to a foot when reach is included - over Cowens.



The Bucks had forced a seventh game by winning a double overtime classic in Boston just two days earlier, when Jabbar's long running baseline hook over Celtic backup center Hank Finkel gave Milwaukee a see-saw 102-101 victory.

Cowens had fouled out earlier in overtime, or the outcome may well have been different, with the Celtics likely celebrating title number 12 at home.

John Havlicek had traded baskets with the 7-2 Jabbar throughout the final extra session, scoring nine of his 36 points in the second OT, but Kareem got the last shot in.

Yet a hustling play by Cowens that came to epitomize his career happened late in that classic sixth contest. Dave switched off on a pick defensively to cover Robertson, then used his quick hands to poke the ball away from the Hall of Famer.

The speedy center then out-sprinted the 6-5 guard for the loose ball, which rolled into the backcourt. Cowens dove for the ball and slid with it near the sidelines while the loose leather bobbled in and out of his arms. Oscar trailed the play and never left his feet, almost in disbelief at the bigger man's reckless dive.

Cowens left a sweat streak about 10 feet long on the old Garden parquet, probably along with some skin. While the Bucks argued that he never had possession of the ball, the referees correctly ruled that the 24-second clock had nevertheless run out to give Boston the ball.

Not long after, Cowens fouled out with just 13 points on five of 19 shooting, and his absence contributed to the series-tying Buck win. Determined to redeem himself, the proud Celtic star came out firing in game seven.

Boston came up with a new strategy to aid Dave. The Boston braintrust decided to pressure the aging Robertson hard with defensive ace Don Chaney while he brought the ball upcourt.

And then once Milwaukee was into its halfcourt offense, coach Tom Heinsohn had Paul Silas, Havlicek and others also double down and help while Cowens fronted and battled Jabbar for position.

After he was told about the change in defensive strategy, Dave would relate years later in an interview that he felt like saying, "Yes! I am finally going to get some help on this guy."

After having the redhead go one-on-one for six games with the much bigger man who was the total focal point of their offense, Jabbar had averaged almost 34 points per game, so the Celtic brass felt it had to try something.

By not having to expend as much energy defending the 7-2 Jabbar alone, it seemed as if Cowens had been unchained and energized for the decisive contest.

On offense, the muscular Cowens used his superior speed and quickness to take the slower Jabbar out on the floor and drive by him, taking advantage of Kareem's relative lack of lateral quickness.

The high-leaping, aggressive Cowens won the opening jump over Jabbar and tapped it it to Havlicek, who fed a cutting Chaney perfectly for a layup that set an immediate, positive tone in the contest for the Celtics.

As time ran out in the first period, Dave bombed a 25-footer from the right side at the buzzer that went straight in to give Boston a 22-20 lead.

The Celtics lengthened the lead late in the half as their defense stymied Jabbar and Robertson. Dave triggered the vaunted Celtic fast break with a defensive rebound and airborne outlet pass that led to a 16-footer by Don Nelson.

Shortly afterward, Cowens nailed consecutive foul line jumpers that gave the visitors a 53-40 intermission edge. Their defensive strategy, cooked up between games six and seven by Celtic patriarch Red Auerbach, Heinsohn and the legendary Bob Cousy, was working almost to perfection.

Robertson, who had played for Cousy in Cincinnati before their falling out led to the Big O's trade to Milwaukee, was hounded into perhaps the worst playoff game of his career at a very inopportune time.

If nothing else, the all-court pressure put on by the quicker Celtics rushed the Bucks and took vital seconds off the shot clock, forcing hurried decisions and field goal tries. With veteran leader and playmaker Robertson flustered, the Buck offense floundered.

As a result, scoring machine Jabbar was amazingly held without a single point in the entire second stanza and for half of the third period. This was a major drought when one realizes that Kareem came into game seven averaging his number per outing in the 1974 playoffs (33).



At the other end, Boston closed the door with a clever bit of body control and quick reactions. Cowens missed a half hook in the lane that richocheted off Jabbar's hands to a nearly-prone Westphal, who was just getting up off the hardwood after being floored while setting a screen.

Paul then hung in the air as he looked to shoot a short jumper over the looming 7-2 Buck center. But at the last second, he double-clutched and instead tossed a beautifully improvised short alley-oop pass to Cowens past Jabbar. Dave caught the ball in the air on the right side of the lane and cleverly kissed it in off glass before Kareem could recover. That was the final nail in the Milwaukee coffin.



Havlicek, who enjoyed a great series, was named Finals MVP even though he tallied a modest 16 points on six of 20 shooting in the decisive contest.

His second fourth quarter three-point play on a foul line jumper as he was hit in the stomach capped a decisive 11-0 spurt that put the game well out of reach, 98-79.

But the game seven MVP was definitely Big Red. The final box score showed Cowens with game-high totals of 28 points and 14 rebounds, compared to 26 and 13 for Jabbar.

Yet the considerable numbers did not show his great intangible contribution, as well. Or how much energy the fiery redhead had supplied his team. Nor how his defense had helped Kareem wear down and fade. He sank just six of 11 free throws in the game and went scoreless for over a third of the game in the crucial middle section when Boston took command.

Or how Cowens had ignited the deadly Celtic transition game with his defensive rebounding and quick outlet bullets, often firing his passes in midair while coming down with the carom.



Due in large part to the scrambling defensive strategy of Boston, Jabbar only took 21 shots in the decisive seventh contest, six below his series average for attempts to that point.

He also converted only 10 field goals after making 14.5 baskets per contest over the first six games - well below his 54 percent shooting accuracy to that point in the title series.

Finally, Erving mows through the ABA with a decent cast, but while the ABA is rapidly closing the per-team talent gap with the NBA, I would still expect his Nets to lose to the Celtics or Bucks, and I do not think it is a given that his scoring output makes him a more valuable player than some of these NBA bigs. I expect he will be a close to unanimous #2 regardless of how I vote.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#3 » by Narigo » Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:12 pm

1. Kareem Abdul Jabbar- Best player in the regular season and ps

2. Bob Lanier Peak season for Lanier imo and seems to committed on the defensive end.

3. Bob McAdoo- Crazy offensive season and takes the champs to 6 games in ps in close series

4.John Havichek- I think he was best player for the Celtics run and in the playoffs he was even better scoring around 27ppg on good efficiency

5.Dave Cowens-
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PG: Damian Lillard
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PF: James Worthy
C: Tim Duncan

BE: Robert Horry
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BE:
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#4 » by AEnigma » Mon Sep 23, 2024 7:42 pm

Narigo wrote:5. Walt Frazier/ Dave Cowens-

Letting you know that you should commit to one before voting concludes.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#5 » by One_and_Done » Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:15 pm

1. Kareem
Kareem is easily the best player in the league, and will likely be my vote every year from 1970-80, except 1975. Maybe I’m missing someone, but I doubt it. He’s the best player with the best impact, which was apparent from his rookie year on the Bucks.

2. Dr J
Just as Kareem is in a tier of his own, so is Dr J. None of the other guys in the league compare to this years ABA champion. Honestly, he should be #2 at the very least from 72 to 76, and maybe beyond that for several years. Why should I punish Erving for sacrificing his volume stats to benefit the team concept? I guess I’d give Walton a push over him 1 or 2 years, but I honestly don’t think there’s too many people close to him.

3. Gilmore.
The 2nd best player in the ABA, and the 3rd best player overall IMO. Best defensive player, and huge 2 way impact on the Colonels which is pretty self-evident.

4. McAdoo
5. Frazier

I don’t feel strongly about 4 and 5. A bunch of guys have a case, but I’ve landed with the 2 I feel probably had the most impact.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 8:46 pm

A few things.

First, if there is ever a year to have Bob Lanier on a top 5 list, this is it. It's the only year of his career where Detroit played good defense and he didn't give anything back on the offensive end where he had always been excellent.

Second, this is the first year where the ABA is reasonably close to equivalent in average talent per team (75 will be even better, 76 arguably has more talent per team than the NBA discounting for Virginia but team cohesion goes out the window as teams go belly up and expansion drafts redistribute midyear). Arguably Doc's greatest year.

Third, assist leaders are Ernie Digregorio and Al Smith . . . please ignore.

1. Kareem
2. Erving
3. McAdoo
4. Lanier
5. Gilmore

Lot of candidates for the #5 spot
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#7 » by Djoker » Mon Sep 23, 2024 10:08 pm

Obviously Cap is first and then some mix of Lanier, McAdoo, Havlicek, Cowens, Frazier for the other spots. I think this is the first year I'll have an ABA player make the ballot. Looking at Erving.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#8 » by trelos6 » Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:06 am

Finally we get to 1973-74, we have a lot more data to go off.

OPOY

A few new names here, with some familiar names too. Kareem, Rick Barry, Bob McAdoo, Calvin Murphy, Walt Frazier, Pete Maravich, Rudy Tomjanovich, Julius Erving.

1. Bob McAdoo. 22.9 pp75 with a whopping +9.1 rTS%. His team was also the 4th ranked offense. Yes, a lot of credit should go to Jack Ramsay for unlocking McAdoo's playstyle, but then again, you need a guy with McAdoo's skillset to make it work.

2. Calvin Murphy. Both Calvin and Rudy put up some good scoring and efficiency. Calvin Murphy was 19.2 pp75 with +7rTS%, but get's the nod over Rudy and others with his playmaking. The Rockets were the 3rd best offense in the NBA.

3. Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Kareem was 21.1 pp75, +6.1 rTS% leading the best offense in the regular season AND post season in the NBA.

HM: Julius Erving. Great year in the ABA. 23.2 pp75, +6% rTS. Started to up his assist % also. Nets were a top 3 offense in the ABA.

DPOY

Again,a few new names. Bob Lanier, Elvin Hayes, Kareem, Elmore Smith, Clifford Ray, Dave Cowens, Nate Thurmond, Artis Gilmore and even Julius Erving all deserve to be shortlisted.

1. Bob Lanier. Anchored a top 3 defense.

2. Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Anchored the best defense in the regular season,and 2nd best in playoffs. Probably the best Kareem defensive year.

3. Elvin Hayes. Anchored a top 4 defense.

HM: Julius Erving. Wreaked havoc on the wing as an additional shot blocker and generating lots of steals. Nets were the #1 defense in the ABA.

POY

1. Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Who else in 74? Kareem was a monster on both ends.

2. Julius Erving. Despite the ABA being a weaker league by a little bit, Dr. J was also a 2 way demon.

3. Bob Lanier. Great defensively, pretty good offensively also (20, +4.5%).

4. Bob McAdoo. Terrific offensively, pretty good defensively.

5. John Havlicek. Really elevated his game in the post season. Great 2 way play.

HM: Rick Barry.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#9 » by OhayoKD » Tue Sep 24, 2024 12:43 pm

1. Kareem Abdul Jabbar

Probably an even stronger argument for a unanimous POY vote than 1972. Let's summarize:

-> Leads a massive regular-season outlier despite both Dandridge and Oscar falling off (both now average under 36 minutes while Kareem averages 43) as the Bucks post an srs 3.5 points higher than any other team.

-> With his starting PG out ups both his scoring volume (4 point spike) and efficiency as the Bucks:

A. Outscored the +3 (4th highest in the league) Chicago Bulls by an average of 14 points; the Bulls knocked off the one team to get within 3.5 of Milwaukee in the regular season

B. Went 8-1 with an average M.O.V of 13.5 to make the final

C. Nearly knocked off a Boston team that nearly beat last year's champion with Hondo injured and was a bigger outlier(at least by san's standard deviation) than the 1990 Pistons.

-> Was the league's best offensive and defensive player during the regular-season and probably even better in the playoffs
-> Would see a massive signal in 75 (30-wins by record, 22 by srs) during what should have been a down-year.

Little reason to think Jabbar didn't have one of the best regular season performances ever. Also, little reason to think he didn't have one of the best post-season performances ever. Combine the two and it's an easy #1 for me.

2. Bob Lanier

From 74-77 the Pistons had a win-pace of 25 without Lanier over 42 games (that's an unusually large sample for a 3-season stretch). With him they played like a 44-win team. In 74, they won 52 games and posted a +4 SRS making them the 2nd best team after the Bucks both by SRS and by record before narrowly losing to the 4th best team despite an increase in both Lanier's scoring volume and efficiency. For the Pistons, a top 2 regular season team, and a top 5 playoff performer, Lanier was

-> Far and away the primary paint-protector
-> The highest volume scorer
-> The most efficiently scoring starter
-> Far and away the lead rebounder

Disappointing way to end the year, but that all looks like a pretty decent case for 2nd to me.

3. Dave Cowens

He was my #1 as the best player on a team that nearly knocked off the eventual champion. Now he's the best player on a team that won the championship. Honestly am wondering if this is too low (if you go by in-season signals, cowens are probably a bit more impressive than Lanier's), but he scored significantly less efficiently than Lanier did and I'm skeptical there's a notable defensive gap. Still might flip.

4. Bob Mcadoo

In 74 Bob Mcadoo became the Braves' minutes leader overseeing an improvement of 8 points and 21 wins. Maybe a threat to Kareem? Well, in-season signals from 74, 76, and 77 are not nearly as impressive and there were more significant changes to Buffalo's starting rotation than Mcadoo seeing more minutes. So yeah, probably not.

Still, Mcadoo was at least a co-primary paint-protector as well as an efficient 30-point scorer for the only team other than Kareem's Bucks to give the Celtics a serious challenge. Between notching a more individually impressive result than the two centers above him, decent in-season signals, and the big turnaround referenced above, I have to wonder if those extra points made-up for the defensive gap.

5. Julius Erving

Last thread I said my bar for ABA inclusion at this point was being the clear best player. Well, with his arrival coinciding with a massive 9-point and 25-win single-season turn around, his team cruising to its first championship (12-2), and with him winning the first of 3 straight MVP's, I'd have to say Julius Erving probably clears that bar (and then some).
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#10 » by AEnigma » Tue Sep 24, 2024 5:19 pm

One_and_Done wrote:4. McAdoo
5. Frazier

I don’t feel strongly about 4 and 5. A bunch of guys have a case, but I’ve landed with the 2 I feel probably had the most impact.

I do not see much, if anything, to suggest either was more “impactful” than Lanier was.
70sFan wrote:It's true that Pistons teams were usually poor defensively, but I don't think you can count it against Lanier to the point of having him below someone like Parish. Lanier missed many games in his best seasons and the team was absolutely terrible without him. Besides, look at Pistons in 1980 when they traded Lanier - they became far worse on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee got far better for what it's worth and although I wouldn't give Lanier a lot of credit for that, he fit very well defensively in these 1980s Bucks teams. I'd call his situation closer to Anthony Davis in Pelicans - Davis was never bad defensively yet Pelicans were terrible more times than not. I don't say that Lanier is as good as Davis defensively, but from what I've seen he was definitely above average.

I spent some time analyzing Lanier's teams stats with and without him in the second part of the 1970s. He came out fantastic (as WOWY stats show). I'm also starting to believe that his defense is undervalued due to his teams being consistently poor on that end:

1976 Pistons with Lanier: 106.8 points allowed (+3.2 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
1976 Pistons without Lanier: 103.5 points allowed (-0.1 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
3.3 worse

1977 Pistons with Lanier: 109.8 points allowed (+1.4 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
1977 Pistons without Lanier: 112.7 points allowed (+4.1 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
2.9 better

1978 Pistons with Lanier: 108.2 points allowed (-0.4 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
1978 Pistons without Lanier: 116.9 points allowed (+7.6 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
8.7 better

1979 Pistons with Lanier: 111.7 points allowed (+0.4 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
1979 Pistons without Lanier: 114.6 points allowed (+3.1 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
2.9 better

1980 Pistons with Lanier: 114.4 points allowed (+1.5 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
1980 Pistons without Lanier: 119.5 points allowed (+6.3 rDRtg assuming the same pace)
4.8 better

Lanier consistently made Pistons team better defensively (outside of 1976). In fact, Pistons were around average with Lanier in that period and absolutely terrible without him (again, assuming pace stays the same without Lanier). Granted, it's a rough estimate but I don't think we should count Pistons defensive weakness against Lanier.
Owly wrote:In large samples Lanier was having a substantial impact in '76-'78. The difference with him to without him (per game in points diff) was ...

'76: 5.2
team points differential over the year -86 over 82 games, -1.05 per game
team points differential over 18 games without Lanier -92 over 18 games, -5.1 per game
team points differential over 64 games with Lanier +6 over 64 games, 0.1 per game

'77: 6.3
team points differential over the year -85 over 82 games, -1.04 per game
team points differential over 18 games without Lanier -107 over 18 games, -5.95 per game
team points differential over 64 games with Lanier 22 over 64 games, 0.35 per game

'78: 4.3
team points differential over the year -102 over 82 games, -1.24 per game
team points differential over 19 games without Lanier -100 over 19 games, -4.35 per game
team points differential over 63 games with Lanier -2 over 63 games, -0.05 per game

This is from a guy hitting his apex in '74. In '75 still more or less as healthy as he ever was (he was injured late in his NCAA career and the Pistons hurried him back in his rookie year, which may have altered his career trajectory, but I digress), he's still blocking more than two shots a game, and I think for those first two years of my span ('74, '75) he's having a larger impact overall and a larger impact on D (than for ’76-’78). But even if it were just at these levels, I just don't buy that his impact was exclusively offensive, and in later Pistons years I don't think Lanier was put in a position to look good in terms of turnover, coaching turnover, coaching quality and teammates.

The Bucks in net in year improvement upon Lanier's arrival is huge suggesting at worst non-harmful at that point on that end. Those games with Lanier, and Lanier played in them all, they go +287, or +11.04 per game. Before that point, over 56 games they had been +36 or 0.64 per game.

I can't think really of another angle to analyse this from. I'd guess he's portable as he can score from the post, he space the floor and shoot the J, and it seems like at his best (anecdotally) he could defend guys out on the floor as well as play a more conventional anchor, and his assist % is pretty strong for a big man

Short-version:
- Mid-70s boxscore composite "advanced" metrics not too far off Kareem (on a per-minute basis).
- Despite missing time in his prime, above metrics were at a high level for a long time.
- With-without splits from when injured during prime indicates significant impact.
- Post-prime splits after trade for the more stable team (Milwaukee) suggest (on a small, but non-trivial sample) huge impact.
- From '74 on, a prominent yearly publication far more bullish on Lanier's D

I think the most I can say on Lanier is the more I got into (1) the numbers and (2) the year by year history rather than the big, broad strokes, after the fact histories (and related rankings), the more I thought "Isn't he better than much more fabled 70s centers (Reed, Unseld, Cowens)?" Instinctively I'd say maybe in Ewing's ballpark.
trex_8063 wrote:With/Without Records/Wins added per season (pro-rated to 82 games)
‘75: 39-37 (.513) with Lanier, 1-5 (.167) without him/+28.4 wins
‘76: 30-34 (.469) with Lanier, 6-12 (.333) without him/+11.1 wins
‘77: 38-26 (.594) with Lanier, 6-12 (.333) without him/+21.4 wins
‘78: 31-32 (.492) with Lanier, 7-12 (.368) without him/+10.2 wins
‘79: 21-32 (396) with Lanier, 9-20 (.310) without him/+7.1 wins
‘80 Pistons: 9-28 (.243) with Lanier, 5-12 (.294) without
‘80 Pistons overall before trade (for Kent Benson): 14-40 (.259)
‘80 Pistons after trade: 2-26 (.071)
‘80 Bucks before obtaining Lanier: 29-27 (.518)
‘80 Bucks after obtaining Lanier: 20-6 (.769) (Lanier played all 26 games)
*‘81: 48/49-18/19 with Lanier, *11/12-3/4 without him
*he actually played 67 games, but game log data only recording 66 (48-18); is possible [likely] they won they other game he played in, making the with record 49-18 (.731) and 11-4 (.733) without. Would be -0.1 wins added in that instance.
‘82: 53-21 (.716) with Lanier, 2-6 (.250) without him/+38.2 wins

The above data spans eight years, SIX different head coaches, and a fair amount of supporting cast turnover.

So one way are another, Lanier's impact appears to have been pretty consistently substantial in nature (and was so across multiple settings).
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#11 » by Djoker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:41 pm

Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#12 » by OhayoKD » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:46 pm

Djoker wrote:Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.

Billy Cunningham walking into an MVP and being top 3 makes me think aba performances should be "well-salted" before consideration
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#13 » by Dutchball97 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 4:48 pm

Kareem 1st and Dr J 2nd is pretty locked in for me. After that it could still go a lot of ways. Lanier, McAdoo and Hayes form a group of bigs with very strong regular seasons and all performed very well in the play-offs despite none of them managing to make it out of the first round. I'm pretty confident Lanier has the most impactful overall season among them though. Havlicek and Cowens were difficult to seperate in the regular season but it does seem like Havlicek had the better post-season. Havlicek should likely make it somewhere on my ballot with Cowens probably on the outside looking in. Frazier will also be in the mix with a solid all around season. Don't think I'll strongly consider many ABA guys outside of Erving this season.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#14 » by AEnigma » Wed Sep 25, 2024 5:13 pm

Djoker wrote:Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.

Agree Erving is a tricky one. The relatively tepid regular season impact signals we see when he joins the NBA have be litigated to exhaustion, but the ABA is much less explored, and there is a wide range in interpretation on whether he was substantially better in the ABA — whether because the more offensively skewed environment of the ABA or because of a reliance on youthful athleticism characteristic of the era — or that he was mostly the same player but was simply playing on less talented teams in a less talented league and thus stood out more.

He is compared semi-regularly to Barry, but I have always been a little more interested in the comparison with George McGinnis. And where that comparison makes me pause is that aside from that stunning 1976 Finals against the Nuggets, peak Erving’s postseasons were not as far removed from peak McGinnis’s postseason as typically portrayed.

McGinnis averages versus the 1974 Stars: 27.4/14.3/4.3 (with ~4 turnovers) on 55.3% efficiency
Erving averages versus the 1974 Stars: 28.2/11.4/5 (with 4.6 turnovers) on 55.5% efficiency

McGinnis averages versus the 3.89 SRS 1975 Spurs: 38.3/18.8/9.2 (with 7.3 turnovers) on 50.1% efficiency
Erving averages versus the 3.82 SRS 1976 Spurs: 32.1/11.3/4.6 (with 3.3 turnovers) on 56.7% efficiency

For anyone who characterises ABA Erving as an elite defender, the comparability of those statlines may not mean much, but for those of us who are more reserved on his defensive impact, it kind-of feels like either peak Erving should be rated lower or peak McGinnis should be rated higher. And I only bring that up because I expect McGinnis to maybe receive a few scattered fifth place votes next round, while I expect Erving to be a strong #2 this year and a comfortable #1 in 1976.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#15 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:21 pm

Player of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Bob Lanier
4. John Havlicek
5. Dave Cowens


HM: Walt Frazier, Bob McAdoo


This is another clear win for Kareem, a bit down RS for his standards (still the best in both leagues though), but finished with top tier postseason run. We have surprisingly big amount of footage from the NBA finals and Kareem was easily the best player on the court in the series, which is backed up by the available stats.

Number 2 spot is between Lanier and Erving to me and although Bob has a very reasonable case over Julius, I decided to give Erving the benefit of doubt due to more complete postseason run. AEnigma already provided my thoughts about Lanier's defense, I don't think he was ever a weak defender - far from it. The impact data we have paints him as a solid contributor throughout his whole prime. At the same time though, I think he's sometimes overcredited for Pistons solid defensive performance in 1974. That's why I decided to put Julius slightly ahead. Still though - Lanier is one of the most underrated bigmen ever, his overall offensive repertoire is matched by very few bigs.

The last spot was between Celtics stars and Frazier. I think I could put Clyde ahead of Hondo, but Havlicek outplayed him h2h and played brilliantly in the finals. I am torn between Cowens and John, postseason performance was quite close but I like Havlicek slightly more.

Bob was a great player, but I don't think he's on top 5 level yet.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Rick Barry


Not much to add here, except that younger versions of Barry are underrated in comparison to his 1975 self, which will likely fight for OPOY in the next thread. I don't find anything supporting the idea that Barry magically improved next year to that degree.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Dave Cowens
3. Artis Gilmore

HM: Elvin Hayes


I can see all 4 in various order, decided to go this way. Gilmore was a bit underwhelming in the playoffs, but I just like him more on defense than Big E.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#16 » by Dutchball97 » Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:35 pm

Player of the Year
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Clear best player in the regular season who then stepped up big time in the play-offs. Kareem was elite on both ends, the Bucks were the best regular season by a mile with a pretty average supporting cast and they were 1 game away from another title. Not much else needs to be said really, he should by all means be unanimous POY this season.

2. Julius Erving - The best player in the ABA in both the regular season and play-offs. He didn't have as much seperation with his competition as Kareem and that while playing in a weaker league so there isn't much of an argument for the #1 spot but I still view it as a comfortably more complete season than the rest of the field who either had so-so regular seasons or short play-off runs.

3. Bob Lanier - I don't think it's a wild claim to make Lanier was the second best player behind Kareem in both the regular season and play-offs. If only he had a deeper run at this same level of impact I'd have likely taken him over Erving.

4. Bob McAdoo - McAdoo had a top 3 regular season alongside Kareem and Lanier but I wasn't as impressed by his play-offs in comparison. It's nonetheless enough to stay on the ballot though as the other contenders have bigger points against them imo.

5. John Havlicek - It'd be strange not to have anyone from the champion Celtics in the top 5 but it wasn't an easy choice as to who it'd be between Havlicek and Cowens. In the end Havlicek seperated himself in the post-season where he played at a high level throughout. I also considered Hayes and Frazier but while I think they had comparable regular seasons and strong post-seasons in their own right, it wasn't enough to make the cut.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. John Havlicek


Kareem has solid playmaking for a big but he really sets himself apart with his scoring. He was already elite in the regular season and then stepped up in both volume and efficiency in the play-offs. The Bucks were also the top offense in both the regular season and post-season. McAdoo was on pace to make the ballot in the regular season with outlier scoring. In the play-offs he had a dip in efficiency though and his complete lack of playmaking and the Braves not seeming to hold up offensively in the post-season is enough to keep him behind Dr J and Hondo, who both had elite scoring and added about 6 assists on top of that in the post-season. While their play-offs are comparable, Erving was the clearly superior player on offense in the regular season so he takes the second spot.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Dave Cowens
3. Julius Erving


The Bucks are the top defense in the regular season and the 2nd best defense behind the Celtics in the play-offs. I still have Kareem ahead though as the Celtics were a bit behind in the regular season and with the likes of Silas and Havlicek providing significant impact on defense as well next to Cowens. Erving at 3 is a bit of a stretch maybe but the Nets were the best defense in the regular season by a decent margin and by a lot in the play-offs. Neither Kenon or Paultz were known as elite defenders and Dr J was leading the team in both steals and blocks so I think it's fair to reward him here. The Pistons weren't convincing enough defensively in the play-offs for Lanier to make it on my ballot. Hayes has a good case but the Bullets aren't really elite defensively and that's with Unseld there as well. Gilmore deserves consideration but doesn't make it due to the large gap to the Nets in the post-season.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#17 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:42 pm

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - I see the best players in the world as Kareem and Dr J at this point while I value the NBA competition higher. Kareem was good in the playoffs, I think the minutes riding caught up to them in the end (49mpg in the finals).

2. Julius Erving - This isn't that hard for me, 2nd most talented player in the world in true prime title year in surprisingly dominant Nets run, the teams he beat like Kentucky looks better than Kareem's conference competition in post Wilt/West Lakers or Bulls.

3. John Havlicek - Everyone else is so close that I'm just looking for players with standout playoffs.

4. Bob McAdoo - Best offensive player in the league and at least has shotblocking on D, good 1st round. Didn't realize he made a serious run at MVP despite winning 42 games.

5. Bob Lanier - Solid well rounded season winning 50 games with Bing

Offensive player of the year

1. Bob McAdoo
2. Julius Erving
3. Rick Barry

Defensive player of the year

1. Dave Cowens
2. Kareem Adbul-Jabbar
3. Artis Gilmore
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#18 » by Djoker » Wed Sep 25, 2024 6:42 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Djoker wrote:Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.

Agree Erving is a tricky one. The relatively tepid regular season impact signals we see when he joins the NBA have be litigated to exhaustion, but the ABA is much less explored, and there is a wide range in interpretation on whether he was substantially better in the ABA — whether because the more offensively skewed environment of the ABA or because of a reliance on youthful athleticism characteristic of the era — or that he was mostly the same player but was simply playing on less talented teams in a less talented league and thus stood out more.

He is compared semi-regularly to Barry, but I have always been a little more interested in the comparison with George McGinnis. And where that comparison makes me pause is that aside from that stunning 1976 Finals against the Nuggets, peak Erving’s postseasons were not as far removed from peak McGinnis’s postseason as typically portrayed.

McGinnis averages versus the 1974 Stars: 27.4/14.3/4.3 (with ~4 turnovers) on 55.3% efficiency
Erving averages versus the 1974 Stars: 28.2/11.4/5 (with 4.6 turnovers) on 55.5% efficiency

McGinnis averages versus the 3.89 SRS 1975 Spurs: 38.3/18.8/9.2 (with 7.3 turnovers) on 50.1% efficiency
Erving averages versus the 3.82 SRS 1976 Spurs: 32.1/11.3/4.6 (with 3.3 turnovers) on 56.7% efficiency

For anyone who characterises ABA Erving as an elite defender, the comparability of those statlines may not mean much, but for those of us who are more reserved on his defensive impact, it kind-of feels like either peak Erving should be rated lower or peak McGinnis should be rated higher. And I only bring that up because I expect McGinnis to maybe receive a few scattered fifth place votes next round, while I expect Erving to be a strong #2 this year and a comfortable #1 in 1976.


Good post.

ABA numbers are definitely inflated and I don't buy that Erving is as good a defender as his blocks and steals appear to make him although in the ABA which was a smaller more faster faced league, his value on both ends was probably greater than it would be in the NBA. It's tough whether to penalize him for being in an easier league or reward him for dominating that league nonetheless. In 1976, the gap between the two leagues is the smallest and his run is even more dominant that I'll probably put him #1.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#19 » by AEnigma » Wed Sep 25, 2024 7:48 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:3. John Havlicek - Everyone else is so close that I'm just looking for players with standout playoffs.

4. Bob McAdoo - Best offensive player in the league and at least has shotblocking on D, good 1st round. Didn't realize he made a serious run at MVP despite winning 42 games.

5. Bob Lanier - Solid well rounded season winning 50 games with Bing

Defensive player of the year

1. Dave Cowens
2. Kareem Adbul-Jabbar
3. Artis Gilmore
Dr Positivity wrote:Lanier and McAdoo look like the next best players in the NBA as the most impressive players in the raw stats, advanced stats, and MVP voting. Cowens, Barry, Hayes, Frazier, Havlicek also have good years, with Cowens/Hondo of course winning the title. Next best players in the ABA are Gilmore, Issel, McGinnis, Gervin. I put Lanier and McAdoo above all those guys this year. Lanier has a more complete game on both sides, and McAdoo is just too statistically dominant. So Lanier or McAdoo? Lanier has the defense, McAdoo more offense. I'm taking Lanier for one reason - I value experience. McAdoo is a young 22 years and really playing his first year as the man. I don't like +/-, but one of the things it's taught me through it's use this decade is players in their first couple years almost uniformly do poorly on it. Unsurprisingly, franchise players usually take until their 3rd year before their team starts winning. Also when in doubt, go with the guy who's stats turned into wins, albeit I do think Lanier had the better team around him (but maybe not 10 games better). With this into account, I like Lanier here.

3. Bob Lanier
4. Bob McAdoo

5th place... Cowens, Frazier, Issel, Gilmore, Hayes. I'll take Cowens and Barry over the rest. Cowens was the best player on the title team, dropped a 19/16/4.4 with great intangibles.

5. Cowens

Curious what made you change semi-dramatically from your 2010 vote, especially with you also giving Cowens DPoY.

If the Lanier downshift is because of Bing, not really seeing the case: the Pistons barely missed him in both 1972 (injury) and 1976 (trade for Kevin Porter, who was out for nearly the entire season).
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE 

Post#20 » by One_and_Done » Wed Sep 25, 2024 8:32 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Djoker wrote:Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.

Billy Cunningham walking into an MVP and being top 3 makes me think aba performances should be "well-salted" before consideration

The Spurs playing as well or better from 77-79, than 74-76 with Silas healthy, makes me think the NBA needs to be even more salted. Cunningham unjustly winning an MVP shouldn't change things any more than Cowens or Unseld unjustly winning one.
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