Retro Player of the Year 1973-74 UPDATE — Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

[Dr Positivity]

Curious what made you change semi-dramatically from your 2010 vote, especially with you also giving Cowens DPoY.

It was 14 years ago and honestly I consider Havlicek/Lanier/McAdoo/Cowens/Gilmore to be pretty close this year, I just had to pick someone, I'll change my vote if someone in this thread convinces me.

[AEnigma]

Come on y'all get in this thread! This is the least active thread since the project started.

I'm pretty much ready to post my ballot but I'd rather see some discussion first. In particular still thinking and unsure where to put Erving relative to the NBA guys.

Billy Cunningham walking into an MVP and being top 3 makes me think aba performances should be "well-salted" before consideration

The Spurs playing as well or better from 77-79, than 74-76 with Silas healthy, makes me think the NBA needs to be even more salted. Cunningham unjustly winning an MVP shouldn't change things any more than Cowens or Unseld unjustly winning one.

What exactly indicates they were any better in 1977/78? They were significantly worse in the regular season, and they were never more relevant in the postseason than they were in 1976.

1979 at least has a nice little SRS spike before dropping back down in 1980 and 1981, but those are peak years from Gervin and Kenon with a healthy (albeit diminished) Silas, and they still do not even look like a top three team in the postseason (Sonics, Suns, Bullets, arguably Lakers).

[One_and_Done]

Billy Cunningham walking into an MVP and being top 3 makes me think aba performances should be "well-salted" before consideration

The Spurs playing as well or better from 77-79, than 74-76 with Silas healthy, makes me think the NBA needs to be even more salted. Cunningham unjustly winning an MVP shouldn't change things any more than Cowens or Unseld unjustly winning one.

What exactly indicates they were any better in 1977/78? They were significantly worse in the regular season, and they were never more relevant in the postseason than they were in 1976.

1979 at least has a nice little SRS spike before dropping back down in 1980 and 1981, but those are peak years from Gervin and Kenon with a healthy (albeit diminished) Silas, and they still do not even look like a top three team in the postseason (Sonics, Suns, Bullets, arguably Lakers).

Their records across those 3 years are basically identical. Yeh, their SRS drops a bit initially, but they lost superstar James Silas who barely played in 77 or 78, and when he got back in 79 (even though he was a shell of his past self) they had their best SRS by far.

For them to be that good without all-ABA 1st teamer and MVP runner up James Silas suggests the healthy version of the 74-76 Spurs would be maybe the best team in the NBA.

[70sFan]

Cunningham unjustly winning an MVP shouldn't change things any more than Cowens or Unseld unjustly winning one.

That's not the case though, Billy was a well deserved MVP candidate in the ABA.

[AEnigma]

The Spurs playing as well or better from 77-79, than 74-76 with Silas healthy, makes me think the NBA needs to be even more salted. Cunningham unjustly winning an MVP shouldn't change things any more than Cowens or Unseld unjustly winning one.

What exactly indicates they were any better in 1977/78? They were significantly worse in the regular season, and they were never more relevant in the postseason than they were in 1976.

1979 at least has a nice little SRS spike before dropping back down in 1980 and 1981, but those are peak years from Gervin and Kenon with a healthy (albeit diminished) Silas, and they still do not even look like a top three team in the postseason (Sonics, Suns, Bullets, arguably Lakers).

Their records across those 3 years are basically identical. Yeh, their SRS drops a bit initially, but they lost superstar James Silas who barely played in 77 or 78, and when he got back in 79 (even though he was a shell of his past self) they had their best SRS by far.

For them to be that good without all-ABA 1st teamer and MVP runner up James Silas suggests the healthy version of the 74-76 Spurs would be the best team in the NBA.

If you sincerely believe that — doubt it but no way for me to know — then you are substantially higher on James Silas than anyone I have ever met.

Pacers go from 0.29 SRS in 1976 to -1.68 SRS in 1977.

Nuggets go from 6.63 SRS in 1975 and 5.45 SRS in 1976 to 4.95 SRS in 1977 before a drop-down to 0.8 in 1978, and then they trade Bobby Jones.

No player older than 25 looks better in the NBA.

By my count there are less than a fifth of ABA players still hanging around as starters (or meaningful rotation players on good teams) three years later.

You want to say the 1975 Colonels stack up fine against any team in the NBA, fair enough. Any other year, no, it was very much inferior, even if only to the extent of the 2001-03 conference talent split.

[One_and_Done]

What exactly indicates they were any better in 1977/78? They were significantly worse in the regular season, and they were never more relevant in the postseason than they were in 1976.

1979 at least has a nice little SRS spike before dropping back down in 1980 and 1981, but those are peak years from Gervin and Kenon with a healthy (albeit diminished) Silas, and they still do not even look like a top three team in the postseason (Sonics, Suns, Bullets, arguably Lakers).

Their records across those 3 years are basically identical. Yeh, their SRS drops a bit initially, but they lost superstar James Silas who barely played in 77 or 78, and when he got back in 79 (even though he was a shell of his past self) they had their best SRS by far.

For them to be that good without all-ABA 1st teamer and MVP runner up James Silas suggests the healthy version of the 74-76 Spurs would be the best team in the NBA.

If you sincerely believe that — doubt it but no way for me to know — then you are substantially higher on James Silas than anyone I have ever met.

Pacers go from 0.29 SRS in 1976 to -1.68 SRS in 1977.

Nuggets go from 6.63 SRS in 1975 and 5.45 SRS in 1976 to 4.95 SRS in 1977 before a drop-down to 0.8 in 1978, and then they trade Bobby Jones.

No player older than 25 looks better in the NBA.

By my count there are less than a fifth of ABA players still hanging around as starters (or meaningful rotation players on good teams) three years later.

You want to say the 1975 Colonels stack up fine against any team in the NBA, fair enough. Any other year, no, it was very much inferior, even if only to the extent of the 2001-03 conference talent split.

You can only compare teams transitioning over to the NBA if they retained substantially the same roster. There are really only 2 teams you can say that about to any meaningful extent; the Spurs and the Nuggets. The Spurs are a much better case study, because the Nuggets lost 5 time all-star Ralph Simpson. That said, they dropped from 60 wins to 50, so clearly they were still very good in the NBA.

The Spurs are a much better case study. From 74-76 they won 45, 51 and 50 games. From 77-79 they won 44, 52 and 48 games. That’s close to identical. Their SRS is also eerily similar; 0.74, 3.89, and 3.82 v.s 0.53, 3.20 and 4.97. So on the whole, you’d say they might have been the better team in the NBA than the ABA. If that was where the analysis ended, my takeaway would be the 2 leagues were of similar strength. But the James Silas factor makes it seem like the ABA might have actually been the stronger league.

I don’t think you need to be especially high on James Silas to think him being injured in 77 and 78, then never recovering as a player, had a huge effect on the Spurs. Silas was their 2nd best player at least, and had been an all-aba 1st teamer. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote in 76. No reasonable person could think that his loss was anything other than huge. Silas is one of the tragic “what if” stories in basketball history, as he has a very Derrick Rose like trajectory. He gets better every year, culminating in his 4th season where at age 26 he’s finally become one of the stars of the league; 2nd in MVP, 1st team, all-star, leads the 50 win Spurs in winshares… then bam. He gets a career altering injury, and he’s never the same again. The Spurs almost beat the ABA champs that year, going down in 7 close games.

I think it’s clear that with a healthy Silas, the Spurs probably win an NBA championship, and are remembered very differently. As it was they barely lost in 7 to the defending champs in the Conference Finals in 79. Honestly, they’d have been a good shot to win multiple titles between 77 and 79.

[AEnigma]

Their records across those 3 years are basically identical. Yeh, their SRS drops a bit initially, but they lost superstar James Silas who barely played in 77 or 78, and when he got back in 79 (even though he was a shell of his past self) they had their best SRS by far.

For them to be that good without all-ABA 1st teamer and MVP runner up James Silas suggests the healthy version of the 74-76 Spurs would be the best team in the NBA.

If you sincerely believe that — doubt it but no way for me to know — then you are substantially higher on James Silas than anyone I have ever met.

Pacers go from 0.29 SRS in 1976 to -1.68 SRS in 1977.

Nuggets go from 6.63 SRS in 1975 and 5.45 SRS in 1976 to 4.95 SRS in 1977 before a drop-down to 0.8 in 1978, and then they trade Bobby Jones.

No player older than 25 looks better in the NBA.

By my count there are less than a fifth of ABA players still hanging around as starters (or meaningful rotation players on good teams) three years later.

You want to say the 1975 Colonels stack up fine against any team in the NBA, fair enough. Any other year, no, it was very much inferior, even if only to the extent of the 2001-03 conference talent split.

You can only compare teams transitioning over to the NBA if they retained substantially the same roster. There are really only 2 teams you can say that about to any meaningful extent; the Spurs and the Nuggets.

The 1976 Pacers were led by Don Buse, Billy Knight, Len Elmore, Dave Robisch, Bill Keller (never played in the NBA), and Darnell Hillman. The 1977 Pacers were led by Billy Knight, Don Buse, Wil Jones (starting forward for the 1975/76 Colonels), Darnell Hillman, Dave Robisch, and famous no-name Dan Roundfield. Yeah, totally different, definitely makes sense to toss this result…

The Spurs are a much better case study, because the Nuggets lost 5 time all-star Ralph Simpson.

That five-time all-star played 21 minutes a game on the Detroit Pistons, then returned to Denver the next year playing 18 minutes a game. And this paired with the prior is especially oily, because…

That said, they dropped from 60 wins to 50, so clearly they were still very good in the NBA.

For one year, which just so happened to be the year they picked up Paul Silas from the Celtics, plus two-time ABA champion Ted McClain, plus ABA champion and two-time all-ABA Willie Wise (Squires) plus Fatty Taylor (Squires), plus Jim Price (Bucks/Braves). Then the following year they lost all those guys except Price, picked up two-time ABA champion Brian Taylor (and brought back “5-time all-star Ralph Simpson”), and dropped down to 0.8 SRS, all while maintaining that core three of Jones/Issel/Skywalker from 1976.

The Spurs are a much better case study. From 74-76 they won 45, 51 and 50 games. From 77-79 they won 44, 52 and 48 games. That’s close to identical. Their SRS is also eerily similar; 0.74, 3.89, and 3.82 v.s 0.53, 3.20 and 4.97. So on the whole, you’d say they might have been the better team in the NBA than the ABA. If that was where the analysis ended, my takeaway would be the 2 leagues were of similar strength. But the James Silas factor makes it seem like the ABA might have actually been the stronger league.

I don’t think you need to be especially high on James Silas to think him being injured in 77 and 78, then never recovering as a player, had a huge effect on the Spurs. Silas was their 2nd best player at least, and had been an all-aba 1st teamer. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote in 76. No reasonable person could think that his loss was anything other than huge.

And no reasonable person could think George Gervin was the same player in 1978/79 as he was in 1974-76, yet here we are.

Is this where I should mention the 1974 team had a whole 25 games of Gervin and their “0.74 SRS” jumped up to +3 in the games he played? In the ABA, Gervin’s Spurs were a consistent +3 SRS, so your argument is not only that Silas was responsible for that entire difference — reasonable enough for 1977 at least — but actually that he was worth more than that because the ABA was just so obviously better than the NBA (despite no actual evidence supporting that stance).

I think it’s clear that with a healthy Silas, the Spurs probably win an NBA championship, and are remembered very differently. As it was they barely lost in 7 to the defending champs in the Conference Finals in 79. Honestly, they’d have been a good shot to win multiple titles between 77 and 79.

Let me see, so the contention is this:

The 0.5 SRS 1977 Spurs, who lost easily to a heavily diminished form of the defending NBA champions, who went on to lose to a 4-SRS team led by two ABA MVPs, who went on to lose to an 8-SRS when healthy Blazers team, were actually a James Silas away from a title. Then two years later, when they have James Silas back (but just not in star form anymore) alongside peak seasons from Gervin and Kenon, even though they lose to a team that was thrashed in the Finals, we may as well chalk that up as a title too.

Incredible.

[One_and_Done]

I’m not sure any of these points are terrible compelling.

1) The Pacers were a 39 win team in 1976 and with some changes to personnel dropped to a 36 win team the following year. I’m not sure there’s enough of a signal there to tell us much if anything. They were similar from 76 to 77, and year to year variance in play and roster changes could explain that.

2) Ralph Simpson fell off the map after the ABA folded. Who knows why. We could speculate any number of reasons, but for whatever reason he got worse. Maybe he was hurt, maybe he had a drug problem, maybe he lost his motivation, or maybe his new teams used him badly. All that matters is he was an all-star in the ABA when he played for Denver, and losing the player who existed in 1976 undoubtedly hurt them in 1977. I don’t think we can read much into Simpson’s decline, because we have too many other examples of players switching between leagues and still being awesome (e.g. Gervin, Erving, R.Barry, etc).

You then have some vague speculation and incredulity about the Spurs which doesn’t seem to signify much. The Spurs clearly would have been much better with a healthy Silas, and since they almost won the 79 title without a good Silas it seems pretty likely they’d have had a great shot at a title in any one of 77 to 79 if not for his injury.

[OhayoKD]

I’m not sure any of these points are terrible compelling.

1) The Pacers were a 39 win team in 1976 and with some changes to personnel dropped to a 36 win team the following year. I’m not sure there’s enough of a signal there to tell us much if anything. They were similar from 76 to 77, and year to year variance in play and roster changes could explain that.

2) Ralph Simpson fell off the map after the ABA folded. Who knows why. We could speculate any number of reasons, but for whatever reason he got worse. Maybe he was hurt, maybe he had a drug problem, maybe he lost his motivation, or maybe his new teams used him badly.

Or maybe he was just worse playing in a better league.

Now's a good time to stop digging.

[One_and_Done]

I’m not sure any of these points are terrible compelling.

1) The Pacers were a 39 win team in 1976 and with some changes to personnel dropped to a 36 win team the following year. I’m not sure there’s enough of a signal there to tell us much if anything. They were similar from 76 to 77, and year to year variance in play and roster changes could explain that.

2) Ralph Simpson fell off the map after the ABA folded. Who knows why. We could speculate any number of reasons, but for whatever reason he got worse. Maybe he was hurt, maybe he had a drug problem, maybe he lost his motivation, or maybe his new teams used him badly.

Or maybe he was just worse playing in a better league.

Now's a good time to stop digging.

Except all those other guys who translated fine had no problem. Sometimes players fall off suddenly. It doesn't mean the whole league got much better though, it might be a them problem.

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. MVP. Clear cut best player in the league in both the RS and the PS and led the best team in the league. The Bucks were #1 in SRS, 1st in ORtg and tied for 1st in DRtg. It was arguably the finest defensive season of Kareem's career as well. However, the team entered the playoffs not healthy with Oscar accumulating injuries and starting SG Lucious Allen missing the entire PS. The Bucks rallied, made the Finals and managed to take the Celtics 7 games but eventually lost. Kareem was transcendent throughout and you can say he got outplayed by Cowens in Game 7 but he completely destroyed Cowens over the entire series. He also had a game-saving block in Game 2 and a game-saving skyhook in Game 6 so he basically won the Bucks two games in the clutch and not many centers can do that. Cap averaged 27.0/14.5/4.8 on 56.4 %TS (+6.1 rTS) in the RS then 32.2/15.8/4.9 on 58.3 %TS (+9.0 rTS) in the PS.

2. Julius Erving - 1st Team All-ABA. MVP. Despite playing in the weaker ABA, Erving had a dominant campaign from beginning to end. His Nets were #1 in SRS, 3rd in ORtg and 1st in DRtg. His off-ball defense brought value overall and there isn't much to nitpick with a guy who won everything including the title while putting up staggering numbers. Weak league or not, I'm convinced of his greatness. 27.4/10.7/5.2 on 56.2 %TS (+5.3 rTS) in the RS then 27.9/9.6/4.8 on 57.0 %TS (+6.4 rTS) in the PS. It helps his case that a lot of statistical greats in the NBA had very short PS runs stuck on mediocre teams.

3. John Havlicek - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Co-captain of the Celtics in the RS with Dave Cowens but the best player in the PS particularly in the Finals against the Bucks which went the distance. Hondo was a terrific all-around player as usual. Averaged 22.6/6.4/5.9 on 50.9 %TS (+0.5 rTS) in the RS then 27.1/6.4/6.0 on 53.5 %TS (+4.0 rTS) in the PS.

4. Bob McAdoo - 2nd Team All-NBA. Seriously good scorer and solid rebounder playing for a mediocre team. Sort of a proto-Kevin Durant but a little more physical in his approach. Braves lost early but not because of him. Averaged 30.6/15.1/2.3 on 59.4 %TS (+9.0 rTS) in the RS then 31.7/13.7/1.5 on 52.9 %TS (+3.7 rTS) in the PS against the champion Celtics.

5. Bob Lanier - Very underrated big who had his arguable peak season this year. Too bad the Pistons weren't very good because Lanier was great on both ends of the court. Lanier made my ballot because of his defensive excellence. Averaged 22.5/13.3/4.2 on 54.8 %TS (+4.4 rTS) in the RS then 26.3/15.3/3.0 on 54.5 %TS (+5.9 rTS) in the PS against the Bulls.

HM:

Walt Frazier - not an easy omission; had a really good season but stats are down and team is declining

Elvin Hayes - less efficient than Lanier

Dave Cowens - great player on the champs; lack of accolades and 2nd best in the PS

OPOY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Great scorer and good playmaker for a big.

2. Julius Erving - Fantastic all-around offense even if in a weaker league.

3. Bob McAdoo - Great scorer.

DPOY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Anchored the #1 defense. Arguably the finest defensive season of his career.

2. Bob Lanier - Anchored the #3 defense. Excellent paint protector.

3. Elvin Hayes - Anchored the #4 defense. Almost made the overall ballot too.

The Bulls were tied for the #1 defense with the Bucks and had several good defenders including two beasts on the perimeter in Sloan and Van Lier.

[AEnigma]

I’m not sure any of these points are terrible compelling.

1) The Pacers were a 39 win team in 1976 and with some changes to personnel dropped to a 36 win team the following year. I’m not sure there’s enough of a signal there to tell us much if anything. They were similar from 76 to 77, and year to year variance in play and roster changes could explain that.

2) Ralph Simpson fell off the map after the ABA folded. Who knows why. We could speculate any number of reasons, but for whatever reason he got worse. Maybe he was hurt, maybe he had a drug problem, maybe he lost his motivation, or maybe his new teams used him badly.

Or maybe he was just worse playing in a better league.

Now's a good time to stop digging.

Except all those other guys who translated fine had no problem. Sometimes players fall off suddenly. It doesn't mean the whole league got much better though, it might be a them problem.

Yeah, if you ignore the 80% of players who could not cut it in the NBA, the ABA held up great.

[One_and_Done]

Or maybe he was just worse playing in a better league.

Now's a good time to stop digging.

Except all those other guys who translated fine had no problem. Sometimes players fall off suddenly. It doesn't mean the whole league got much better though, it might be a them problem.

Yeah, if you ignore the 80% of players who could not cut it in the NBA, the ABA held up great.

Spurs seemed to hold up just fine.

[AEnigma]

Except all those other guys who translated fine had no problem. Sometimes players fall off suddenly. It doesn't mean the whole league got much better though, it might be a them problem.

Yeah, if you ignore the 80% of players who could not cut it in the NBA, the ABA held up great.

Spurs seemed to hold up just fine.

Yeah banner accomplishment to win one series in their first five years and to never look like a top three postseason team. Very proud of them.

[falcolombardi]

My picks

OPOY
1-kareem: not close for me. All time offensive force who is probably only below the truly top end perimeter engines. And there is not any one at this point between oscar/west and magic/bird

2-julius erving: cleae gap with kareem but he is as good of a ber as anyone else here and it feels correct to reward his success this year. Wouldnt normally be a common pick in my top 3 OPOY rankings

3 bob mcadoo: amazing scoring profile with ahead of his time shooting as a big

Dpoy

1-cowens: elite defensive player for the era and the most important player in the title celtics

2- kareem: is unlikely to mw he was at his best defensively considering the absurd offensive load. But his defensive floor remains absurdly solid for a guy whose defense is not even his best attribute

3- artis gilmore: his impact signals are seemingly not as strong this year but he remains a impressive physical profile and in earlier years led a massive defensive turnaround so i trust his defense being very strong

Hm: hayes has an amazing rep but i am less familiar with him.

OPOY:
1-kareem: easy for me. Head and shoulders above his peers. Carried a diminished bucks team almost to a ring with amazi playoffs performance

2-julius erving. Winning aba is less of an accompmishment tjan winning nba but he seems to have done it with less help than cowens did

3-cowens: best player in best nba team is a rrally high achievement. Could alternate with julius fairly easily

4- lanier: fairly impressive individual season. Less team achievement than cowens

5-mcadoo: amazing scoring profile that jumps out of the page. Impressive enough to snatch this for me

[One_and_Done]

Yeah, if you ignore the 80% of players who could not cut it in the NBA, the ABA held up great.

Spurs seemed to hold up just fine.

Yeah banner accomplishment to win one series in their first five years and to never look like a top three postseason team. Very proud of them.

They're being compared to their ABA selves, not the 80s Lakers.

[ShaqAttac]

KAREEM

MVP, best o and best d and went crazy in the playoffs and almost won.

COWENS
Ig they didn't win many rs games but they won the chip.

DOCTOR J
I guess ABA weak but he won and had crazy impact. He also won MVP in the NBA so idt it matters he was in ABA tbh.

LANIER/b
2nd best rs team. and put up most points assists and rebounds

[b]MCADOO
Big impact and almost beat the champs. great d and scores 30.

[ardee]

PoY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: no one really comes close again. Unlike the previous two years his Playoffs were flawless too, they simply ran into a slightly better Celtics team in the Finals. As others have mentioned, this was also likely his defensive peak too. Just stupendous impact on both ends, may well be the 2nd best year of his career after '77.

2. Bob McAdoo: honestly Kareem-esque on offense, and it showed with the team results too, the Braves were 4th in the league on that end.

3. Julius Erving: really amazing raw stats but I've always been a bit wary of taking the ABA numbers at face value given how much his production dropped once he joined the NBA. Sure, you can argue there was more talent on the Sixers than his ABA teams, but you'd expect his efficiency to rise at least somewhat then? Either way, still can't have him lower than this.

4. Bob Lanier: incredible defensively and pretty decent offensively. The WOWY stats OhayoKD provided paint a pretty compelling picture in his favor.

5. John Havlicek: really just comes down to his very good Playoff run en route to leading the Celtics to a title without Russell. I think Cowens was the bigger talent but it seems to me like that team was really equally dependent on both.

OPoY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Bob McAdoo
3. Julius Erving

DPoY

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Bob Lanier
3. Artis Gilmore

[LA Bird]

Player of the Year
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Bob Lanier
4. Bob McAdoo
5. John Havlicek

Kareem with an easy #1 now that there's no Thurmond or Wilt to stop him. Without a clear next best in the NBA, I think that also makes Dr J the straightforward #2. Led his league in points, 4th in assists, 3rd in steals, 3rd in blocks, 40% on 3s on the #1 SRS team with a 12-2 run to the title including a sweep of Gilmore's Colonels. I rank Lanier higher of the two Bobs. McAdoo wins in scoring volume and efficiency but his lack of passing is pretty glaring especially in the playoffs. Pistons also have a top 3 defense this season vs the below average Braves and there is stronger evidence of Lanier's impact in subsequent years. Considered Frazier at #5 despite lesser team success because his second best scorer in the Celtics series was Phil Jackson whereas Havlicek had Cowens but figured I would reward Hondo for once since he had the best postseason of his career.

[AEnigma]

Spurs seemed to hold up just fine.

Yeah banner accomplishment to win one series in their first five years and to never look like a top three postseason team. Very proud of them.

They're being compared to their ABA selves, not the 80s Lakers.

They are being compared to good teams 1974-79. They “held up” in the sense that they were still a consistent postseason team on the back of a player who was developing into the sport’s best shooting guard. But they were never as relevant as they were in 1976, because beating fully fledged NBA teams is harder than beating a team comprised of Erving, Brian Taylor, half a series of John Williamson, and a collection of players who could not cut it in the NBA.