NBA Future Power Rankings: Projecting the next three seasons (Raps 22nd)

[Scase]

Next 3 season is hard to predict, but I think we will be higher after we get a lottery pick this season, maybe closer to 16.

i don't think we draft in the top 5 this year (unless we get some Hawks level lottery luck) so i don't think a draft pick in the early teens is going to be all that helpful over the next three years.

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

[Brinbe]

i don't think we draft in the top 5 this year (unless we get some Hawks level lottery luck) so i don't think a draft pick in the early teens is going to be all that helpful over the next three years.

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

We will def be in that range, no way they don't eventually lose guys to injuries and tank a bit when reality sets in. No bench, no defense, no real consistent scorers. Even with a bad bench they'll steal wins? Do you even hear yourself? Who are you trying to convince here? I know your narrative is too go against the FO at all costs, but you're lying to yourself thinking they're gonna win 35 or so games. They're gonna be a bad team and def in the mix for a top 5 pick.

What teams are they beating? When you really lay it down, how many teams can you confidently feel like they'll beat? Even other bad teams in the same tier have more depth.

[Duffman100]

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

We will def be in that range, no way they don't eventually lose guys to injuries and tank a bit when reality sets in. No bench, no defense, no real consistent scorers. Even with a bad bench they'll steal wins? Do you even hear yourself? Who are you trying to convince here? I know your narrative is too go against the FO at all costs, but you're lying to yourself thinking they're gonna win 35 or so games. They're gonna be a bad team and def in the mix for a top 5 pick.

What teams are they beating? When you really lay it down, how many teams can you confidently feel like they'll beat? Even other bad teams in the same tier have more depth.

Yeah. They'll need big contributions from people like Mitchell, Ochai, Brown etc. Surprising rookie seasons from Walter and Mogbo. Big jump from Dick.

If they lose Poeltl, Barnes, Quickly or Barrett for any length of time, things will get real rough.

[Scase]

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

We will def be in that range, no way they don't eventually lose guys to injuries and tank a bit when reality sets in. No bench, no defense, no real consistent scorers. Even with a bad bench they'll steal wins? Do you even hear yourself? Who are you trying to convince here? I know your narrative is too go against the FO at all costs, but you're lying to yourself thinking they're gonna win 35 or so games. They're gonna be a bad team and def in the mix for a top 5 pick.

What teams are they beating? When you really lay it down, how many teams can you confidently feel like they'll beat? Even other bad teams in the same tier have more depth.

Hey man I'm with you and hope you are right. But I fully expect them to pull out some random wins here and there that will put them outside the 25win range. My original prediction was 28-32 wins, if we only manage 25, I will be a happy camper.

With the NBA being so 3pt heavy, even bad teams with not a lot of shooting can get hot and win games they otherwise shouldn't, or teams with a bunch of 3pt shooting having off nights and we steal a win.

I'm not sure how my narrative is to go against the FO at all costs, but then also think they are going to win 35 games, that's exactly what the FO is trying to achieve. I don't know how you would confuse me with someone trying to convince anyone that this roster is good

All I'm saying is that I don't think 25 wins or less is a guarantee.

[Brinbe]

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

We will def be in that range, no way they don't eventually lose guys to injuries and tank a bit when reality sets in. No bench, no defense, no real consistent scorers. Even with a bad bench they'll steal wins? Do you even hear yourself? Who are you trying to convince here? I know your narrative is too go against the FO at all costs, but you're lying to yourself thinking they're gonna win 35 or so games. They're gonna be a bad team and def in the mix for a top 5 pick.

What teams are they beating? When you really lay it down, how many teams can you confidently feel like they'll beat? Even other bad teams in the same tier have more depth.

Hey man I'm with you and hope you are right. But I fully expect them to pull out some random wins here and there that will put them outside the 25win range. My original prediction was 28-32 wins, if we only manage 25, I will be a happy camper.

With the NBA being so 3pt heavy, even bad teams with not a lot of shooting can get hot and win games they otherwise shouldn't, or teams with a bunch of 3pt shooting having off nights and we steal a win.

I'm not sure how my narrative is to go against the FO at all costs, but then also think they are going to win 35 games, that's exactly what the FO is trying to achieve. I don't know how you would confuse me with someone trying to convince anyone that this roster is good

All I'm saying is that I don't think 25 wins or less is a guarantee.

Fair enough. I don't think it's a guarantee either but I think it's more a function of actually looking at rosters and seeing how incredibly light we are even in comparison to almost every other team in the league, even the bad ones. It's even worse with Brown out. We're looking at Ochai as a key rotational piece and he couldn't even hack it in summer league. When push comes to shove, where are the wins coming from that isn't just hoping for 3 pt variance to go in our favour?

[YogurtProducer]

Next 3 season is hard to predict, but I think we will be higher after we get a lottery pick this season, maybe closer to 16.

i don't think we draft in the top 5 this year (unless we get some Hawks level lottery luck) so i don't think a draft pick in the early teens is going to be all that helpful over the next three years.

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

IQ / RJ / Barnes / Poeltl / Brown / Kelly O / Mitchell are at least 7 guys who have been NBA caliber rotation level nba players for years now, so confused where we got 4 from? And that is also assuming Dick is not a rotation level player which IMO would be a big disappointment based on how he ended the year.

We could end up bottom 5, but that would take some injuries for sure.

Fair enough. I don't think it's a guarantee either but I think it's more a function of actually looking at rosters and seeing how incredibly light we are even in comparison to almost every other team in the league, even the bad ones. It's even worse with Brown out. We're looking at Ochai as a key rotational piece and he couldn't even hack it in summer league. When push comes to shove, where are the wins coming from that isn't just hoping for 3 pt variance to go in our favour?

I think you would be shocked if you actually look at other teams benches in terms of how thin most teams are.

Our main issue is our top 5 is weaker, but I really don't think our depth is any better or worse than most NBA teams.

That being said - I forgot Brown was hurt, but is it even confirmed he is gonna miss any time?

[Jadoogar]

i don't think we draft in the top 5 this year (unless we get some Hawks level lottery luck) so i don't think a draft pick in the early teens is going to be all that helpful over the next three years.

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

I suspect we will be bad, but not bottom 5 bad without any injuries. It all hinges on how well our BBQD core can play together and win minutes. Even with a bad bench, we might steal a few wins we otherwise shouldn't. But I don't see this as a 25 win team, which is what we'd need to be bottom 5.


Unrelated to this post, big ole LOL to all the people dumping on the rankings, I'm sure you'd all be saying the same if the rankings were good.

Yea basically this. We're bad but we're not Washington/Brooklyn/Blazers level bad. The Raptors have been playing with basically no bench for the past few years, the starting lineup is good enough to get this team to a baseline of competency. We are going to need 2 of the main 4 to miss an extended period to really get bottom of the barrel level bad.

[ForeverTFC]

I'd easily bet against consensus here.

[Brinbe]

i don't think we draft in the top 5 this year (unless we get some Hawks level lottery luck) so i don't think a draft pick in the early teens is going to be all that helpful over the next three years.

How do you figure? How many games do you really think this team (which has about 4 actual rotation level nba players on it right now, 5 if you include Kelly O, who may be washed) is gonna win? I don't know how we win many games with zero bench.

IQ / RJ / Barnes / Poeltl / Brown / Kelly O / Mitchell are at least 7 guys who have been NBA caliber rotation level nba players for years now, so confused where we got 4 from? And that is also assuming Dick is not a rotation level player which IMO would be a big disappointment based on how he ended the year.

We could end up bottom 5, but that would take some injuries for sure.

Fair enough. I don't think it's a guarantee either but I think it's more a function of actually looking at rosters and seeing how incredibly light we are even in comparison to almost every other team in the league, even the bad ones. It's even worse with Brown out. We're looking at Ochai as a key rotational piece and he couldn't even hack it in summer league. When push comes to shove, where are the wins coming from that isn't just hoping for 3 pt variance to go in our favour?

I think you would be shocked if you actually look at other teams benches in terms of how thin most teams are.

Our main issue is our top 5 is weaker, but I really don't think our depth is any better or worse than most NBA teams.

That being said - I forgot Brown was hurt, but is it even confirmed he is gonna miss any time?

Mitchell and Kelly O are not what I'd call good rotation players at this point. Both flawed in the polar opposite way. No offense, no defense. The analytics back that up. Brown is out but he was hardly good for us either. So that's four quality rotation level players. Dick has not shown he's ready to be a positive contributor at all. Especially with his shaky shooting and defense. There's a difference between having high hopes for players and them actually being net positive players and Gradey isn't there yet. He could be, but it's probably too soon to be expecting it. His shooting has gotta be way better and he's gotta prove he can defend at this level. The extra boards, steals and hustle stats doesn't make up everything else.

Again, actually look at other rosters and don't look at it through the lens of a raptors supporter but a neutral. I really don't think we stack up especially well, as they have way better vets and more of them. I'm not even considering that those other teams also have more high potential prospects in comparison.

And we will have injuries, every team has injuries. And it'd be a miracle if they hold up considering the big 4 in Scottie/Yak/RJ/IQ will need to shoulder heavy minutes if we wanna be competitive.

Anyway, I don't wanna dominate this thread which is reserved for a different topic.

[YogurtProducer]

Mitchell and Kelly O are not what I'd call good rotation players at this point. Both flawed in the polar opposite way. No offense, no defense. The analytics back that up.

Okay, but how is this different from any other teams bench? That is why they are bench players - they have massive flaws.

BUT - that is no different from any other bench. That is why Davion was 8th in minutes on the Kings last year . OR why Kelly has played 20mpg everywhere he has been, including on a decent Utah team (before they went nuclear tank).

Like just for fun - can you point to many teams who have significant better benches? Typically the contenders would have 1 additional bench player that could fit in as a starter quite well (Boston with like Horford, or Minny with Naz). But after that, their benches are pretty meh (Boston with Kornet, Hausser, Brissett, or Minny with NAW, Anderson, McLaughlin, Milton).

Even the 50 win Knicks were rolling a bench with Precious Achiwua as their 6th man.

[YogurtProducer]

I'm not sure how my narrative is to go against the FO at all costs

[Chandan]

Haha management jumped from 2 to 21 in couple of years. But somehow it's us who are too negative about the FO.

[Chandan]

The most notable thing to me, is our terrible management ranking.

They were the top ranked team in 2020 and second in 2021. So how valuable are these rankings in reality?

That's easy to answer. They are worth less than doodly squat. Just like all projections beyond next week.

Pre-draft rankings? Doodly squat.

Pre-season projections of who will win the title? Or even make the finals? Doodly squat.

How any trade will work out? Doodly squat.

It's incredible how despite years and years of evidence to the contrary people still cling fiercely to the idea that one can know with any kind of certainty some specific long-term outcome in a system as complex and unpredictable as the NBA.

Meanwhile I am 100% certain that everyone on the inside of the actual decision-making understands that all you can do is come up with a plan that could work if everything falls into place, do your best to implement it for a while, then be prepared to pivot towards a new plan – and new people – as soon as it becomes clear that the current one isn't working out, which by definition happens most of the time.

That is how all pro sports works. The rest is just hype and hope and hate.

That's why there should be a luck considerations for previous performance.
That way you dont just automatically become the best 2-3 GM just by throwing hail mary and getting lucky, or by being in a weak conference for half a decade.

[Kingsway_fan]

The most notable thing to me, is our terrible management ranking.

Yes!! From a top 5 perceived management team a while back....to now... that's brutal!! ... but really, since 2019... we have been bad... except for the Barnes Draft... brutal... trading away 1sts... trade for Purtle, signing Thad, Olnyk, etc... yep Brutal.

[Corson27]

Haha management jumped from 2 to 21 in couple of years. But somehow it's us who are too negative about the FO.

Ed Rogers save us!

[Brinbe]

Mitchell and Kelly O are not what I'd call good rotation players at this point. Both flawed in the polar opposite way. No offense, no defense. The analytics back that up.

Okay, but how is this different from any other teams bench? That is why they are bench players - they have massive flaws.

BUT - that is no different from any other bench. That is why Davion was 8th in minutes on the Kings last year . OR why Kelly has played 20mpg everywhere he has been, including on a decent Utah team (before they went nuclear tank).

Like just for fun - can you point to many teams who have significant better benches? Typically the contenders would have 1 additional bench player that could fit in as a starter quite well (Boston with like Horford, or Minny with Naz). But after that, their benches are pretty meh (Boston with Kornet, Hausser, Brissett, or Minny with NAW, Anderson, McLaughlin, Milton).

Even the 50 win Knicks were rolling a bench with Precious Achiwua as their 6th man.

I think I can point to pretty much most of the league that'll have a much better bench. And just because bench players are flawed doesn't mean that automatically makes our bench anywhere near decent in the least. What kind of sense does that argument make?

And our starting lineup is already weaker relative to most other teams in the first place, that's the entire point! And the Knicks had contributors like McBride/Hartenstein/Hart/Burks and Precious was a plus player for them. They're a pretty damn deep team and a well-coached one, which also makes a difference.

Pretty meh, and goes on to list a bunch of guys who would be key bench pieces here. Thanks for further proving my point!

But again, you're straying from my main point, which was that we badly lack in depth in comparison to other teams that y'all seem to think will be worse than us and I'm not really seeing how we're much better.

I know you wanna look at this team with super rose-tinted glasses but what's the point of posting just to think or act like a homer constantly in defense of the front office? Whatever Scase is, you're on the other end of that spectrum. I'm a long-time fan but I'm not gonna go easy on them just because of that.

[YogurtProducer]

Mitchell and Kelly O are not what I'd call good rotation players at this point. Both flawed in the polar opposite way. No offense, no defense. The analytics back that up.

Okay, but how is this different from any other teams bench? That is why they are bench players - they have massive flaws.

BUT - that is no different from any other bench. That is why Davion was 8th in minutes on the Kings last year . OR why Kelly has played 20mpg everywhere he has been, including on a decent Utah team (before they went nuclear tank).

Like just for fun - can you point to many teams who have significant better benches? Typically the contenders would have 1 additional bench player that could fit in as a starter quite well (Boston with like Horford, or Minny with Naz). But after that, their benches are pretty meh (Boston with Kornet, Hausser, Brissett, or Minny with NAW, Anderson, McLaughlin, Milton).

Even the 50 win Knicks were rolling a bench with Precious Achiwua as their 6th man.

I think I can point to pretty much most of the league that'll have a much better bench. And just because bench players are flawed doesn't mean that automatically makes our bench anywhere near decent in the least. What kind of sense does that argument make?

And our starting lineup is already weaker relative to most other teams in the first place, that's the entire point! And the Knicks had contributors like McBride/Hartenstein/Hart/Burks and Precious was a plus player for them. They're a pretty damn deep team and a well-coached one, which also makes a difference.

Pretty meh, and goes on to list a bunch of guys who would be key bench pieces here. Thanks for further proving my point!

But again, you're straying from my main point, which was that we badly lack in depth in comparison to other teams that y'all seem to think will be worse than us and I'm not really seeing how we're much better.

I know you wanna look at this team with super rose-tinted glasses but what's the point of posting just to think or act like a homer constantly in defense of the front office? Whatever Scase is, you're on the other end of that spectrum. I'm a long-time fan but I'm not gonna go easy on them just because of that.

Okay, if you can point to most of the league, do it. The simple fact of the matter is you cant, and the reality is our bench is comparable to most benches. The reality is - most benches suck.

Specifically NYK..
Miles McBride was sooooo good he signed a 3 year 13M extension.
Hartenstein - 100% agree he was a great backup
Hart - was a starter after they got OG which I assume is when you are talking about
Burks - averaged 6ppg on 30% shooting

Again, the fact Achiwua was a successful bench player there and not here has more to do with the starters than the bench in all honesty.

Like in all honesty, that bench is not lightyears better than a Mitchell / Brown (or Dick) / Olynyk bench (if at all).

[YogurtProducer]

They were the top ranked team in 2020 and second in 2021. So how valuable are these rankings in reality?

That's easy to answer. They are worth less than doodly squat. Just like all projections beyond next week.

Pre-draft rankings? Doodly squat.

Pre-season projections of who will win the title? Or even make the finals? Doodly squat.

How any trade will work out? Doodly squat.

It's incredible how despite years and years of evidence to the contrary people still cling fiercely to the idea that one can know with any kind of certainty some specific long-term outcome in a system as complex and unpredictable as the NBA.

Meanwhile I am 100% certain that everyone on the inside of the actual decision-making understands that all you can do is come up with a plan that could work if everything falls into place, do your best to implement it for a while, then be prepared to pivot towards a new plan – and new people – as soon as it becomes clear that the current one isn't working out, which by definition happens most of the time.

That is how all pro sports works. The rest is just hype and hope and hate.

That's why there should be a luck considerations for previous performance.
That way you dont just automatically become the best 2-3 GM just by throwing hail mary and getting lucky, or by being in a weak conference for half a decade.

Then should we not also consider that there is both good and bad luck? Or only when it suits your narrative?

Also, are you suggesting the only reason Masai was a 2-3rd best GM at one time was based on a hail mary like he was not getting Executive of the Year even before he was a member of the Raptors?

[JB7]

7. Houston Rockets
Previous ranking: 26

CATEGORY RANK
Players 17
Management 8
Money 2
Draft 5
Market 10
After finishing with a 41-41 record following a 16-6 close to the regular season, Houston enjoyed a 19-spot improvement from last year -- by far the biggest jump in the league. Houston's first top-10 ranking since landing in the fourth spot five years ago was powered by top 10 rankings in each of the management, money, draft and market categories and a jump from 26th to 17th in the players category. -- Bontemps

Rockets 7th? Really. What that tells me is there is a team set up to disappoint a lot of people.

[Badonkadonk]

ESPN is terrible at predicting one year out, never mind three. That's laughable, but not as laughable as them ranking the 21st ranked "management" score. Rankings for the record:

Category Rank
Players 22
Mgmt 21
Money 7
Market 15
Draft 7

Season really needs to start.