2025 ATL Thread - Burnes to have TJ surgery

Post #1261 » by **MickeyDavis** » Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:08 pm

I think both teams want a split to face the Brewers rather than the Padres. Whoever wins the first game may punt the second game to save pitching.

Post #1262 » by **ReasonablySober** » Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:48 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:I think both teams want a split to face the Brewers rather than the Padres. Whoever wins the first game may punt the second game to save pitching.

Good point.

MVP2110 · Post #1263 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 12:46 am

Besides dignity, what's to stop the team who wins game 1 tomorrow from straight up forfeiting game 2 and resting up their pitchers?

coolhandluke121 · Post #1264 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 1:00 am

MVP2110 wrote:Besides dignity, what's to stop the team who wins game 1 tomorrow from straight up forfeiting game 2 and resting up their pitchers?

That's kind of what I was getting at when I asked about forfeiting if the D-Backs were eliminated. I figure it's just a non-starter in terms of MLB's tv contracts and ticket sales, etc etc?

Perfect outcome for the Brewers and Padres, in any case. Winner of the early game is in and will basically punt the next game. That said, their scrubs could still finish the sweep and we could still be stuck with the D-Backs and a rested Zac Gallen in G1, but I'd say it's around a 70-80% chance that the Mets and Braves will split. There's just no incentive to pitching anyone good in the nightcap if you win the early game.

coolhandluke121 · Post #1265 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 1:08 am

coolhandluke121 wrote:ESPN has Atlanta's playoff odds over 99.9%, and I can't figure out what I'm missing. Yeah, it's unlikely that they lose 3 in a row while Arizona wins tomorrow, but less than a 1 in 1000 chance? Really??

Yeah, still kind of laughing at this. I wouldn't have questioned something even as high as 98% or whatever, but that would still be 20x higher likelihood of the Braves missing the playoffs than ESPN was saying yesterday. Like, was what happened today really so unlikely that the Braves are all the way down to 82% playoff odds? It just came down to the Braves losing and the D-Backs winning. The Mets game didn't really even matter because the Braves would still need to beat the Mets once either way.

MVP2110 · Post #1266 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 1:12 am

coolhandluke121 wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:Besides dignity, what's to stop the team who wins game 1 tomorrow from straight up forfeiting game 2 and resting up their pitchers?

That's kind of what I was getting at when I asked about forfeiting if the D-Backs were eliminated. I figure it's just a non-starter in terms of MLB's tv contracts and ticket sales, etc etc?

Perfect outcome for the Brewers and Padres, in any case. Winner of the early game is in and will basically punt the next game. That said, their scrubs could still finish the sweep and we could still be stuck with the D-Backs and a rested Zac Gallen in G1, but I'd say it's around a 70-80% chance that the Mets and Braves will split. There's just no incentive to pitching anyone good in the nightcap if you win the early game.

That's exactly it. There is absolutely nothing to gain from that wins game 1 playing a 2nd game so why not just actually forfeit. I get MLB probably would never allow it but imagine if a player gets hurt and has to miss the playoffs or something because of playing 18 innings tomorrow.

Post #1267 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 1:18 am

They could just prefer to not play one another, being division rivals and all.

MVP2110 · Post #1268 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 1:30 am

ReasonablySober wrote:They could just prefer to not play one another, being division rivals and all.

I mean sure, pride & dignity and all that. But there really isn't anything to be gained. If this was the Brewers & Pirates for example and the Brewers won the 1st game I'd see literally zero incentive to try and win the 2nd game. Why burn your pitching staff for an extra 9 innings and risk injury to a hitter just because?

j_hilge444 · Post #1269 » by **j_hilge444** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 2:42 pm

Both teams have basically already said they aren't going to try very hard in Game 2 if they win. Severino is only pitching if Mets lose and Sale only if Braves do.

Thunder Muscle · Post #1270 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 3:11 pm

There is no way we can play the Braves right? Believe if they split today, Braves have 5 seed for sure as would have tiebreaker over Mets. If win both, they are 5. If lose both, they are out of it.

sidney lanier · Post #1271 » by **sidney lanier** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 3:21 pm

This is such an interesting prisoner's dilemma-type situation. If the first-game winner obviously tanks the second, was that the arrangement going in? Can Arizona protest to the league office? Who broke the ESPN probability predictor?

Thunder Muscle · Post #1272 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 3:41 pm

sidney lanier wrote:This is such an interesting prisoner's dilemma-type situation. If the first-game winner obviously tanks the second, was that the arrangement going in? Can Arizona protest to the league office? Who broke the ESPN probability predictor?

Arizona did kinda screw themselves in the last week too. No one to blame but themselves IF miss.

coolhandluke121 · Post #1273 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 3:53 pm

sidney lanier wrote:This is such an interesting prisoner's dilemma-type situation. If the first-game winner obviously tanks the second, was that the arrangement going in? Can Arizona protest to the league office?

Nah, tanking the second game would be exactly what you would expect whether it was arranged in advance or not, so Arizona would have nothing for "evidence" but the feeling that they were hurt on purpose.

It's like all that talk about collusion a few years ago. Based on the unequivocal data, you would clearly expect teams to stop paying aging stars so much, whether they were colluding or not, so there's no basis for assuming the conspiracy is there if you have no other evidence than an outcome that should have been expected all along.

Post #1274 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 5:56 pm

Good job Albies

jimmybones · Post #1275 » by **jimmybones** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 6:32 pm

Rooting for Atlanta to win in extra innings. Have to imagine a split is super likely and I'll be curious to see to what degree the winner of game one just punts game two. But even if the Braves win game one and punt game two, the Mets still have to play all hands on deck.

Thunder Muscle · Post #1276 » by **Thunder Muscle** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 6:35 pm

So fat, so good. Braves up 2-0 in the 6th.

Post #1277 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 6:41 pm

How about the Mets score a couple now. Make Atlanta burn some more arms.

coolhandluke121 · Post #1278 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 7:17 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:How about the Mets score a couple now. Make Atlanta burn some more arms.

I don't think there's any scenario where the Brewers can play Atlanta*. They're out completely if they're swept and they win the season series against the Mets if they split. They're also obviously the 5 seed if they split.

*Unless it's the LCS. 8-)

Post #1279 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 7:20 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:How about the Mets score a couple now. Make Atlanta burn some more arms.

I don't think there's any scenario where the Brewers can play Atlanta*. They're out completely if they're swept and they win the season series against the Mets if they split. They're also obviously the 5 seed if they split.

*Unless it's the LCS.

Yea, I just want this game to go as long as possible with the most high leverage situations.

coolhandluke121 · Post #1280 » by **coolhandluke121** » Mon Sep 30, 2024 7:21 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:How about the Mets score a couple now. Make Atlanta burn some more arms.

I don't think there's any scenario where the Brewers can play Atlanta*. They're out completely if they're swept and they win the season series against the Mets if they split. They're also obviously the 5 seed if they split.

*Unless it's the LCS.

Yea, I just want this game to go as long as possible with the most high leverage situations.

That's valid. I think most of the leverage to be gained would be from the Braves winning and the Mets having to use up pitchers in game 2 though.