NYK-MIN

[brackdan70]

It sounds like NYK may be sending Keita-Bates Diop back to MIN, but a three-for-one means MIN needs to create a roster spot.

Likely candidates are vet min Luka Garza, or more likely partially guaranteed PJ Dozier. MIN should pay good cash for a team to take one in a trade, and avoid aggressive lux taxes.

Less likely candidates could be Josh Minott. And if someone wanted to make a positive offer on Nickiel Alexander Walker and his Bird rights, MIN might make the a with DiVencenzo under contract. They may want to keep NAW for a playoff run, but a trade now means they don’t lose him for nothing when they can’t afford him next summer.

I would guess Diop more likely goes to a third team? Part of the rational for this for Minny is getting off 9 million in lux tax salary. I don’t think they would take him back…if so the deal is much worse for them imo.

That $9MM figure was just terrible reporting. Julius Randle has a >$4MM trade-kicker.

The trade was about building depth and long-term financial flexibility, not cutting costs this season.

Right I didn’t calculate the kicker. Absolutely the flexibility going forward and ability to get out of the repeater tax situation. Saving 4-5 million in salary is still a big chunk of change once you add the tax multipliers. I still think the don’t want to take back more salary and make it a wash though?

[shrink]

I would guess Diop more likely goes to a third team? Part of the rational for this for Minny is getting off 9 million in lux tax salary. I don’t think they would take him back…if so the deal is much worse for them imo.

That $9MM figure was just terrible reporting. Julius Randle has a >$4MM trade-kicker.

The trade was about building depth and long-term financial flexibility, not cutting costs this season.

Right I didn’t calculate the kicker. Absolutely the flexibility going forward and ability to get out of the repeater tax situation. Saving 4-5 million in salary is still a big chunk of change once you add the tax multipliers. I still think the don’t want to take back more salary and make it a wash though?

$49.21 Towns

$33.28 Randle ($28.94 x 1.15)
$11.45 DiVincenzo
$2.65 Bates-Diop
————-
$47.38 Incoming payroll

$1.83 Savings

Said another way, $8.8 savings initially reported, less $4.34 for Randle’s Trade Kicker, less $2.65 for adding Keita later = $1.83.

But this deal isn’t completed. The news is focused on what NYK does to send out more salary to make the trade legal, but MIN might try to expand the deal as well, to send out one more player, and get some of that savings back. For example, they could look for a team who was willing to give up a 2nd to absorb Josh Minott ($2 mil).

FWIW, if they can’t find a trade, he likely cut is PJ Dozier, who’s deal is only guaranteed for $1 mil, but Connelly has liked him since DEN, and he participated in Media Day yesterday in Minnesota. And Minott got plenty of love there too, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

[165bows]

I don’t see a big Wolves trade coming, but I will try to point out what one could look like.

MIN brought back its seven best players this season, and that continuity (and the unlikely event owners will be able to pay to keep Naz and NAW the following year), makes MIN a win-now team. There other win-now priority may be to find immediate depth at PG in case 36-year old Mike Conley can’t (or shouldn’t) play 76 games and a long playoff run again.

Their secondary needs would be preparing for the future financially. MIN has never shown an ability to draw top free agents, so if they trade Towns for some financial relief, it would need to be for a cheaper star. Towns did better than I expected as a PF defensively, but he may have more value on another team where he is a match-up nightmare as a center. Saving some money may allow them to pay Naz and NAW next summer, depending on ownership’s willingness to spend into the tax.

The future timeline may be Ant, McDaniels and Naz, who are all close. Everything we hear from Connelly and the organization is that they are fully committed to Dillingham being the PG of the future, but that may be their riskiest hope. I think there’s maybe a 70% Gobert gets an extension sometime this year, exchanging years for dollars, and one eye will be on finding the right teammates to maximize Rudy’s big strengths and weaknesses (three point shooting). That said, Connelly believes in continuity, and local reporters say that this locker room is the most in synch they’ve ever seen. They hang out together off the court, they sacrifice for team goals, and they are all firmly committed to Finch.

Perhaps the Wolves have painted themselves into a corner, perhaps this is what Connelly envisioned. Unless something goes tragically wrong, I suspect we won’t see anything happen with MIN until after next year’s playoffs.

Well done per usual lol.

[165bows]

NYK: Karl Anthony-Towns, Naz Reid
MIN: Julius Randle, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, Mitchell Robinson

Why for NYK: Get a true #2 scorer to team with Jalen Brunson for the next 5 years while adding a stretch big to round out the rotation.

Brunson/Bridges/Anunoby/Reid/Towns
Kolek/DDV/Bates-Diop/Precious

The depth takes a bit of a hit, and NY needs to be prepared to give Reed a contract starting at $25MM next summer. That would take NY into next summer with 8 players on the roster at $195MM, which likely makes them a 2nd apron team. But I think it's worth it as the top 6 - Brunson/Towns/Bridges/Anunoby/Reid/DDV is on par with Boston by replacing Randle/Hart with Towns/Reid.

Note that NY would still have their taxpayer MLE to add some depth - Isaac Okoro or Doug McDermott would be the likely targets.

Why for MIN:
This trade is driven by payroll concerns, and potentially seeing Reed walk in free agency after this season. Randle comes in to replace Towns scoring. Hart adds a quality glue piece off the bench and Duce will provide a nice future offense/defense mix next to Ant with Dillingham as Conley ages out. Mitch Robinson is more cap filler here, but there are minutes for him backing up Gobert.

Conley/Ant/McDaniels/Randle/Gobert
Dillingham/McBride/NAW/Hart/Robinson

Pretty dang close good job.