Trade value for Anfernee Simons?

[gswhoops]

It's going to be interesting to see, but I think the model of just re-signing all of your sub-all star players and then trading them later might not work for rebuilding teams anymore. I think we'll see guys like this only be able to moved for minimal value as expiring players or the rare team who's financial situation allows it over multiple years.

The market for good, but not great players making big money has basically died up. Especially if they are questionable defenders. I don't think portland is going to get any sort of good offer for him. If you can get a late first, I'd call that a win. On the court, he'd absolutely help some teams as a 6th man, but it's really hard to justify that type of contract for a 6th man in today's nba.

I think these are both the correct take here. In the past the attitude seemed to be mostly to pay "your" guys so you don't "lose them for nothing" and deal with the fallout later. Except with the new CBA/apron rules, the downside of overpaying a sub-star level player is much higher, and as a consequence these guys have become less movable/less valuable in trades.

Simons is a perfect example. He's somewhere between the 75th and 100th best player in the league making $25M a year, which under the old CBA would be fine. But under the new CBA every marginal dollar is that much more important and it gets harder and harder to justify overpaying, even slightly, a non-core piece.

[Skybox]

the magic ship i think sailed ...crazy to see cole,black and a first still put out there i really can not see magic doing that
unless he was signed to 4 yr 15 a yr deal to play 6th man..and i still think magic would pass on giving all that ..that is how far off i see it

That ship might make a U-turn if ORL's offense continues to flounder. They (seemingly) improved their 3pt shooting by addition AND subtraction, but they still have very significant questions about game management. "Internal Growth" of Franz & Paolo (and Black?) is a very hopeful but simplistic answer but worth at least a little more patience...for all of last year's success, we have to realistically acknowledge that the offense truly sucked and (without a leap) puts a serious ceiling on the team's hopes.

[orlando_joe]

the magic ship i think sailed ...crazy to see cole,black and a first still put out there i really can not see magic doing that
unless he was signed to 4 yr 15 a yr deal to play 6th man..and i still think magic would pass on giving all that ..that is how far off i see it

That ship might make a U-turn if ORL's offense continues to flounder. They (seemingly) improved their 3pt shooting by addition AND subtraction, but they still have very significant questions about game management. "Internal Growth" of Franz & Paolo (and Black?) is a very hopeful but simplistic answer but worth at least a little more patience...for all of last year's success, we have to realistically acknowledge that the offense truly sucked and (without a leap) puts a serious ceiling on the team's hopes.

i would think it will be kcp going out if it does not work...maybe just me

[kobe_vs_jordan]

I think unfortunately there are so many great small scoring guards that it is hard to fully capitalize on their trade value if they aren't fits. e.g., I love Sexton and he is an absolutely electric scorer, but he's probably pulling a non-premium first and filler? And I imagine Simons is similar? And that is if you can find a team that doesn't already have a similar player.

Think these small scoring guards are only fits when they a tier or two above Sexton and Simons. Mitchell and Kyrie type of small scoring guard have ton of value. But hard to get excited about 20 ppg potential when so many players in the league have that potential.

[JRoy]

I think unfortunately there are so many great small scoring guards that it is hard to fully capitalize on their trade value if they aren't fits. e.g., I love Sexton and he is an absolutely electric scorer, but he's probably pulling a non-premium first and filler? And I imagine Simons is similar? And that is if you can find a team that doesn't already have a similar player.

Think these small scoring guards are only fits when they a tier or two above Sexton and Simons. Mitchell and Kyrie type of small scoring guard have ton of value. But hard to get excited about 20 ppg potential when so many players in the league have that potential.

So….perennial all stars?

[kobe_vs_jordan]

I think unfortunately there are so many great small scoring guards that it is hard to fully capitalize on their trade value if they aren't fits. e.g., I love Sexton and he is an absolutely electric scorer, but he's probably pulling a non-premium first and filler? And I imagine Simons is similar? And that is if you can find a team that doesn't already have a similar player.

Think these small scoring guards are only fits when they a tier or two above Sexton and Simons. Mitchell and Kyrie type of small scoring guard have ton of value. But hard to get excited about 20 ppg potential when so many players in the league have that potential.

So….perennial all stars?

More so people with an elite skills are valuable. Could be scoring, playing making, shooting , etc. Having a kinda of good skill puts Simmons near the DFS/Cam Johnson tier of role players imo.

[JRoy]

Think these small scoring guards are only fits when they a tier or two above Sexton and Simons. Mitchell and Kyrie type of small scoring guard have ton of value. But hard to get excited about 20 ppg potential when so many players in the league have that potential.

So….perennial all stars?

More so people with an elite skills are valuable. Could be scoring, playing making, shooting , etc. Having a kinda of good skill puts Simmons near the DFS/Cam Johnson tier of role players imo.

Simmons?

Do you mean Simons?

[Skybox]

the magic ship i think sailed ...crazy to see cole,black and a first still put out there i really can not see magic doing that
unless he was signed to 4 yr 15 a yr deal to play 6th man..and i still think magic would pass on giving all that ..that is how far off i see it

That ship might make a U-turn if ORL's offense continues to flounder. They (seemingly) improved their 3pt shooting by addition AND subtraction, but they still have very significant questions about game management. "Internal Growth" of Franz & Paolo (and Black?) is a very hopeful but simplistic answer but worth at least a little more patience...for all of last year's success, we have to realistically acknowledge that the offense truly sucked and (without a leap) puts a serious ceiling on the team's hopes.

i would think it will be kcp going out if it does not work...maybe just me

Certainly could be, if needed...all depends on the size of the target. Hopefully, it emerges from within...and quickly

[SkyHook]

Good thread. I had been interested in bringing Simons to Utah's backcourt for a while, but now I'd just prefer to keep Sexton—both for his value on the court and his contract. The comparisons to Sexton and Herro are apt; easy to see that different people might have different preferences there.

Anfernee Simons, 6' 3" 181 lbs, Age 25-117d
$25.9 MM, $27.7 MM
2023-24, 46 G (stats per75 possessions):
24.3 PTS, 3.9 REB, 6.0 AST, 0.2 STL, -1.2 rTS%, -10.6 NetRtg (-1.4 swing)
EPM percentile 64 (94 OFF, 1 DEF)

Tyler Herro, 6' 5" 195 lbs, Age 24-257d
$29.0 MM, $31.0 MM
2023-24, 42 G (stats per75 possessions):
22.7 PTS, 5.8 REB, 4.9 AST, 0.8 STL, -2.2 rTS%, +1.0 NetRtg (-0.8 swing)
EPM percentile 82 (88 OFF, 58 DEF)

Collin Sexton, 6' 3" 190 lbs, Age 25-273d
$18.4 MM, $19.2 MM
2023-24, 51 G as a starter (stats per75 possessions):
25.9 PTS, 3.2 REB, 6.8 AST, 1.1 STL, +3.6 rTS%, -3.2 NetRtg (-0.4 swing)
EPM percentile 89 (96 OFF, 16 DEF)

[Tim Lehrbach]

Simons' trade value is whatever a team ends up trading for him. This might, I'm sorry to say, be nothing. He is not a building block to a team that is early in its development. His potential suitors are likely good teams that need offensive punch. Because they are good teams, they won't be willing to sacrifice rotation minutes attached to the salary they'd need to send out to match Anfernee's. Is there a dead contract + something the Blazers would want out there for Simons? I've yet to see it. The perennial favorites, Orlando, added KCP instead. Simons could work as a sixth man, but if I'm the Magic I'd rather run Black out there to see what they have in him. I thought the Spurs would be a fit, but they landed Castle and Paul over the summer. Lakers? Portland would insist on assets plus Russell, but is Anfernee really enough of an upgrade to justify sacrificing their few, precious assets? Nah.

I don't want this to be the outcome, but I expect him to play out his contract in Portland, then walk. Or maybe Cronin will hand him a $200 million extension.

[RollingWave]

I struggle to see the Blazers getting both expiring contracts and a 1st for Simons. He'd be gone already if that was his market.

I'd put him a bit higher, though it does depend on a team that has that pretty exact need. Right now the teams that both need a scoring guard and have the team around them where that make sense is basically Orlando, a market of one is a bit rough especially since Orlando isn't really pressured to win big right now.

OTOH after this year he's basically expiring and i kind of expect if he's willing to extend with new team that might change the calculation especially for some teams that just won't be able to sign anyone above the MLE

[jbk1234]

I struggle to see the Blazers getting both expiring contracts and a 1st for Simons. He'd be gone already if that was his market.

I'd put him a bit higher, though it does depend on a team that has that pretty exact need. Right now the teams that both need a scoring guard and have the team around them where that make sense is basically Orlando, a market of one is a bit rough especially since Orlando isn't really pressured to win big right now.

OTOH after this year he's basically expiring and i kind of expect if he's willing to extend with new team that might change the calculation especially for some teams that just won't be able to sign anyone above the MLE

BBR lists him as having two full seasons left and he's going to be difficult to extend given the fact he's overpaid.

[Tim Lehrbach]

I should have added above that I think there is a tendency to see large contracts approaching their end, attached to players you do not intend to keep, as assets in every case, such that if you do not trade them for "value," it is asset mismanagement. I think this assumes too much. Not every player or contract has a robust market at all times. It is less about what one supposes a player should be able to return in trade due to his goodness or the perceived utility of his contact in a vacuum and more about what needs exist right now. If there was a team out there, trying to win, with a worse player on a matching salary, with a need for Simons' shooting, and with a chest of picks or prospects to spend, Simons might be worth quite a bit to them. But we've been over this ad nauseum and we can't seem to find a deal for Simons that benefits both parties. Maybe there's a GM out there who really covets him... and yet, a deal hasn't happened yet.

All this to say that I no longer treat moving Simons with urgency. The Blazers probably just need to wait and see if the market changes with time and teams' evolving circumstances. If nothing emerges and he's gone as a free agent, we can't say with confidence that the Blazers squandered an asset because we have no idea whether they could move him for anything worthwhile, or at all.

[Butter]

I am starting to believe that Simons best future in this league is as a super sixth man off the bench to jump start the second unit in a defense oriented team.

What might make or break Simons value is to see if he can come out hitting straight off the bench. Some players need to be on the floor for awhile to get into a rhytme. If Simons can come in cold and spur an offensive run for the second unit (hitting 6-8 pts, and a 10 pt team run) he's got value. I get it, if he scores 6 quick points, and gives up 8, it counter balances his teams second unit going on a run.

The other issue that not a lot of people are talking about is durability. He hasn't shown that he's durable as a starter. A prominent bench role on a playoff or contending team might extend his season.

[Scoot McGroot]

I struggle to see the Blazers getting both expiring contracts and a 1st for Simons. He'd be gone already if that was his market.

I'd put him a bit higher, though it does depend on a team that has that pretty exact need. Right now the teams that both need a scoring guard and have the team around them where that make sense is basically Orlando, a market of one is a bit rough especially since Orlando isn't really pressured to win big right now.

OTOH after this year he's basically expiring and i kind of expect if he's willing to extend with new team that might change the calculation especially for some teams that just won't be able to sign anyone above the MLE

BBR lists him as having two full seasons left and he's going to be difficult to extend given the fact he's overpaid.

Why would that make him difficult to extend? He can always take less than a full 40% raise? There’s a ton of flexibility in pricing there. Plus, I think he could do really well to extend early like McCollum has in his career. He’s extension eligible now, and if he agreed to take something like 3/$70-75m (with no raises, just flat salary), he’d essentially stay at 15% of the cap, and his share would drop every year. If he’d take as little as a 3/60? All the better.

[jbk1234]

I'd put him a bit higher, though it does depend on a team that has that pretty exact need. Right now the teams that both need a scoring guard and have the team around them where that make sense is basically Orlando, a market of one is a bit rough especially since Orlando isn't really pressured to win big right now.

OTOH after this year he's basically expiring and i kind of expect if he's willing to extend with new team that might change the calculation especially for some teams that just won't be able to sign anyone above the MLE

BBR lists him as having two full seasons left and he's going to be difficult to extend given the fact he's overpaid.

Why would that make him difficult to extend? He can always take less than a full 40% raise? There’s a ton of flexibility in pricing there. Plus, I think he could do really well to extend early like McCollum has in his career. He’s extension eligible now, and if he agreed to take something like 3/$70-75m (with no raises, just flat salary), he’d essentially stay at 15% of the cap, and his share would drop every year. If he’d take as little as a 3/60? All the better.

Would you commit 15% of your cap to Simons? Would you have been comfortable with the Pacers paying Heild $75M over three years?

[wemby]

Would you commit 15% of your cap to Simons? Would you have been comfortable with the Pacers paying Heild $75M over three years?

I think a lot of the issues with Simons value come down to this. Undersized shooting guards who can't playmake or defend aren't worth what he's making. Why would you pay significant assets for Simons to take a big chunk of your cap space, when you could have signed Gary Trent Jr in free agency for much, much less? Market has spoken, and it doesn't bode well for Simons... who I actually like.

[Scoot McGroot]

BBR lists him as having two full seasons left and he's going to be difficult to extend given the fact he's overpaid.

Why would that make him difficult to extend? He can always take less than a full 40% raise? There’s a ton of flexibility in pricing there. Plus, I think he could do really well to extend early like McCollum has in his career. He’s extension eligible now, and if he agreed to take something like 3/$70-75m (with no raises, just flat salary), he’d essentially stay at 15% of the cap, and his share would drop every year. If he’d take as little as a 3/60? All the better.

Would you commit 15% of your cap to Simons? Would you have been comfortable with the Pacers paying Heild $75M over three years?

The numbers I listed were ranging from 11.8-14.7% of the cap in 26/27 when an extension would start. If he’s paid flat, he would never hit 15% of the cap.

But the Buddy comparison? I mean, it’s a very different situation. Simons is a better overall player, and much younger (Buddy would have started his extension at 32, and Simons would start this one at 27). The rest depends on my roster. Do I have an Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, and even Ben Sheppard completely neutralizing Simon’s playing time?

But mostly, if a team finds value in trading for Simons at all, they would also likely find value in paying Simons less than 15% of the cap for his age 27-29 seasons. I would have no issue whatsoever if a Shams tweet come out that someone extended Simons on a 3/70m type extension. It’d be a fair price for a fine player. He’s no star, and he’s not garbage, so he’d be paid pretty accurately? Not a bargain,,but definitely not an overpay?

[jbk1234]

Why would that make him difficult to extend? He can always take less than a full 40% raise? There’s a ton of flexibility in pricing there. Plus, I think he could do really well to extend early like McCollum has in his career. He’s extension eligible now, and if he agreed to take something like 3/$70-75m (with no raises, just flat salary), he’d essentially stay at 15% of the cap, and his share would drop every year. If he’d take as little as a 3/60? All the better.

Would you commit 15% of your cap to Simons? Would you have been comfortable with the Pacers paying Heild $75M over three years?

The numbers I listed were ranging from 11.8-14.7% of the cap in 26/27 when an extension would start. If he’s paid flat, he would never hit 15% of the cap.

But the Buddy comparison? I mean, it’s a very different situation. Simons is a better overall player, and much younger (Buddy would have started his extension at 32, and Simons would start this one at 27). The rest depends on my roster. Do I have an Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, and even Ben Sheppard completely neutralizing Simon’s playing time?

But mostly, if a team finds value in trading for Simons at all, they would also likely find value in paying Simons less than 15% of the cap for his age 27-29 seasons. I would have no issue whatsoever if a Shams tweet come out that someone extended Simons on a 3/70m type extension. It’d be a fair price for a fine player. He’s no star, and he’s not garbage, so he’d be paid pretty accurately? Not a bargain,,but definitely not an overpay?

I guess I disagree that Simons is better than Buddy. Buddy's a one trick pony, but he's exceptional at that trick. I think Simons is a good, but not great, three point shooter and I wouldn't say he does anything else well.

[psman2]

Would you commit 15% of your cap to Simons? Would you have been comfortable with the Pacers paying Heild $75M over three years?

The numbers I listed were ranging from 11.8-14.7% of the cap in 26/27 when an extension would start. If he’s paid flat, he would never hit 15% of the cap.

But the Buddy comparison? I mean, it’s a very different situation. Simons is a better overall player, and much younger (Buddy would have started his extension at 32, and Simons would start this one at 27). The rest depends on my roster. Do I have an Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, and even Ben Sheppard completely neutralizing Simon’s playing time?

But mostly, if a team finds value in trading for Simons at all, they would also likely find value in paying Simons less than 15% of the cap for his age 27-29 seasons. I would have no issue whatsoever if a Shams tweet come out that someone extended Simons on a 3/70m type extension. It’d be a fair price for a fine player. He’s no star, and he’s not garbage, so he’d be paid pretty accurately? Not a bargain,,but definitely not an overpay?

I guess I disagree that Simons is better than Buddy. Buddy's a one trick pony, but he's exceptional at that trick. I think Simons is a good, but not great, three point shooter and I wouldn't say he does anything else well.

If Simons were to buy into a 6th man role I think he would very likely be one of the best if not the best. He is a very good 3pt shooter, not Buddy good but close, but he has a lot more in his offensive bag than Buddy. One a 3/70 he would be paid a percentage very close to what LeVert was making during the 1st two years of his last deal. Not every team can carry a sixth man that expensive but some teams can that are not bogged down by vets on their 3/4th contracts.

That is not to say he will carry a lot of trade value, but I think on the right team he can at least play up to his next contract if it is in that 3/70 range.