Tank World Order V (Rise of the Phoenix)

[720]

I think we could win anywhere from 30-38 games this season. Depending on injuries, and roster makeup. I think if Poeltl gets traded by the deadline then we’re definitely one of the tanking teams.

This season should be about Scottie, Grady, IQ, etc anyways. Just let them build up their skill set and chemistry.

[dagger]

I think we could win anywhere from 30-38 games this season. Depending on injuries, and roster makeup. I think if Poeltl gets traded by the deadline then we’re definitely one of the tanking teams.

This season should be about Scottie, Grady, IQ, etc anyways. Just let them building up their skill set and chemistry.

It's a good range, because just as a lot of things could go wrong (injuries, underperformance) a few things going right, maybe just a bit better than expected, could push the team well out of tank range. The key might be what happens near the deadline if the team is pushing towards the top end of the range - will Masai pull the string on a sell high deal?

[Pointgod]

The whole point is grabbing a high pick this year, adding on with two more picks next season and having a sht-ton of possible capspace to add on to this core in the summer of 2026. And then by 2027, that's when they'll be expecting to make some real noise and it'd make sense as Scottie will be firmly in his prime and hopefully surrounded by other star talent.

It doesn't really matter what Scottie does at this point, whether he's an allstar or superstar. Regardless he wouldn't be able to win by himself and no other star/superstar player in this league does anything without having a high level number two and even three/four. Scottie has IQ/RJ and they're not on that level and probably never will be.

Please stop, you’re making too much sense.

[ReggieSlater]

Tanking isn't always the best option but this is definitely a rebuilding year for the Raptors. Wins are not a priority. One or two years of development should be enough. After that, the usual people can continue talking about treadmills and ceilings and we can all go back to ignoring them for a while.

[dohboy_24]

For context... should we win somewhere between 30 games (36% win percentage) and 40 games (48% win percentage) and miss the play-in/play-offs this season, this is how we'd place among the other teams in the lottery for each of the past ten (10) drafts...

2024 NBA Draft

Utah Jazz (31-51) = 8th worst record
Brooklyn Nets (32-50) = 9th worst record
Houston Rockets (41-41) = 10th worst record

2023 NBA Draft

Portland Trailblazers (33-49) = 5th worst record
Orlando Magic (34-48) = 6th worst record
Washington Wizards (35-47) = 7th worst record
Indiana Pacers (35-47) = 7th worst record
Utah Jazz (37-45) = 9th worst record
Dallas Mavericks (38-44) = 10th worst record

2022 NBA Draft

Sacramento Kings (30-52) = 7th worst record
Los Angeles Lakers (33-49) = 8th worst record
Washington Wizards (35-47) = 9th worst record
New York Knicks (37-45) = 10th worst record

2021 NBA Draft - only 72 games played

Chicago Bulls (31-41) = 8th worst record
Sacramento Kings (31-41) = 8th worst record
New Orleans Pelicans (31-41) = 8th worst record

2020 NBA Draft - Bubble season

New Orleans Pelicans (30-42) = 10th worst record

2019 NBA Draft

Washington Wizards (32-50) = 6th worst record
Dallas Mavericks (33-49) = 7th worst record
New Orleans Pelicans (33-49) = 7th worst record
Memphis Grizzlies (33-49) = 7th worst record
Minnesota Timberwolves (36-46) = 10th worst record

2018 NBA Draft

Los Angeles Lakers (35-47) = 10th worst record

2017 NBA Draft

New York Knicks (31-51) = 6th worst record
Minnesota Timberwolves (31-51) = 6th worst record
Sacramento Kings (32-50) = 8th worst record
Dallas Mavericks (33-49) = 9th worst record
New Orleans Pelicans (34-48) = 10th worst record

2016 NBA Draft

New Orleans Pelicans (30-52) = 5th worst record
New York Knicks (32-50) = 6th worst record
Milwaukee Bucks (33-49) = 7th worst record
Denver Nuggets (33-49) = 7th worst record
Sacramento Kings (33-49) = 7th worst record
Orlando Magic (35-47) = 10th worst record

2015 NBA Draft

Denver Nuggets (30-52) = 7th worst record
Detroit Pistons (32-50) = 8th worst record
Charlotte Hornets (33-49) = 9th worst record
Miami Heat (37-45) = 10th worst record

At best, a record of 30 wins and 52 losses ends up as the 5th worst record. At worst, it has been the 10th worst record.

On average, a record of 30 wins and 52 losses is going to be the 7th worst record.

Over the last 10 drafts, an average win percentage of 27.2% or less is what it takes to end up with one of the 5 worst records.

If the Raptors are going to truly be serious about tanking this year they'll probably need to lose between 55 and 60 games to end up with one of the 5 worst records by the end of the season.

[HangTime]

Can we add a poll?

pro tank
no tank


I hope we don't tank.

Also, were you Pro-Suggs and Anti-Barnes?

[Reeko]

Can we add a poll?

pro tank
no tank


I hope we don't tank.

Also, were you Pro-Suggs and Anti-Barnes?

I was very Pro Suggs. But I saw that Barnes had best player in the draft potential early on in the draft process. Still, I was upset when we passed on Suggs.

[Scase]

Can we add a poll?

pro tank
no tank


I hope we don't tank.

Also, were you Pro-Suggs and Anti-Barnes?

How about anti tank, and glazing Masai for a great pick in Barnes? Or some other contradictory positions. Barnes is the only reason this team has any semblance of hope the next 5-7 years. And we got him due to tanking.

Masai and his team have a damn good drafting record, so why give him worse picks to work with? Tank and have a FO that has a great record of picking the right player > play in bound and a great record of picking the right player, out of what's left.

Tanking is far from the only way to build a team, but sometimes it's the best option, and at the moment, it's the best option. Finding a steal of a player in the draft means different things depending on the pick. A steal in the top 5 is a ROTY and future star level player, a steal in the 10-20 range, is usually a solid starter, a steal in the (early) second round is a good rotation player. All steals are not equal, higher picks = better chance at franchise altering talent.

I hope we tank.

[S.W.A.N]

Can we add a poll?

pro tank
no tank


I hope we don't tank.

Also, were you Pro-Suggs and Anti-Barnes?

We don't need to tank to lose games. Besides, it way too early to have this conversation.

Tanking talk can start when we go 5-20 in the first 25 games but until then we need to see what we actually have here.
If BBQ and Yak is dominating games then tank is off the table.

[DreamTeam09]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

[PhilBlackson]

It’s never too early to discuss tanking in a stacked class that can alter the entire trajectory of the franchise. Let’s not waste any time or opportunity, trade Yak asap.

[720]

Read on Twitter

[Clutch0z24]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

The problem with that thinking is ....Lets say you are 10-13th area in the lottery....Your either moving up to top 4 or your staying at 10-13....Which is the worst possible spot...Because yeah you can get some ok player in the 10-13th area but its a drastic drop off in talent...Your more likely going to draft a role player type of guy in that area of the draft...We need a much more talented player added to this core than a role player type of guy...

If we actually try our hardest to get a high draft pick and we end up in that 1-6 spot your most likely getting a really good pick with a chance of picking a life changing talent changing the trajectory of the team during Barnes Max contract....Which is much better for the future of the franchise.

[Clutch0z24]

Watch on YouTube

Pretty good segment on the draft coming up....

Jonathan Givony said this is the best group of players hes ever seen in a 1 draft....

[DreamTeam09]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

The problem with that thinking is ....Lets say you are 10-13th area in the lottery....Your either moving up to top 4 or your staying at 10-13....Which is the worst possible spot...Because yeah you can get some ok player in the 10-13th area but its a drastic drop off in talent...Your more likely going to draft a role player type of guy in that area of the draft...We need a much more talented player added to this core than a role player type of guy...

If we actually try our hardest to get a high draft pick and we end up in that 1-6 spot your most likely getting a really good pick with a chance of picking a life changing talent changing the trajectory of the team during Barnes Max contract....Which is much better for the future of the franchise.

(2014)Zach Lavine
Devin Booker Myles Turner
Sabonis
Donovan Mitchell
Shai, Mikal
Tyler Herro
Haliburton, Vessel
2021 - yuck
Jalen Williams
Lively (2023)

Non roll players selected 10-13 over the last 10yrs. We gotta get away from these one size fit all boxes quote. Let the chips play out & operate from there, but this mantra of good but not good enough is something that literally applies to everyone minus 4-5 teams...
Yes you're right, the closer to the top the better, but that's not in our control & a Jakob trade doesn't tip us from 10 - 4, that would be our lotto luck. Lotto luck has way more to do with it than us "trying really hard" to get a high pick.

[Clutch0z24]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

The problem with that thinking is ....Lets say you are 10-13th area in the lottery....Your either moving up to top 4 or your staying at 10-13....Which is the worst possible spot...Because yeah you can get some ok player in the 10-13th area but its a drastic drop off in talent...Your more likely going to draft a role player type of guy in that area of the draft...We need a much more talented player added to this core than a role player type of guy...

If we actually try our hardest to get a high draft pick and we end up in that 1-6 spot your most likely getting a really good pick with a chance of picking a life changing talent changing the trajectory of the team during Barnes Max contract....Which is much better for the future of the franchise.

(2014)Zach Lavine
Devin Booker Myles Turner
Sabonis
Donovan Mitchell
Shai, Mikal
Tyler Herro
Haliburton, Vessel
2021 - yuck
Jalen Williams
Lively (2023)

Non roll players selected 10-13 over the last 10yrs. We gotta get away from these one size fit all boxes quote. Let the chips play out & operate from there, but this mantra of good but not good enough is something that literally applies to everyone minus 4-5 teams...
Yes you're right, the closer to the top the better, but that's not in our control & a Jakob trade doesn't tip us from 10 - 4, that would be our lotto luck. Lotto luck has way more to do with it than us "trying really hard" to get a high pick.

I think you would have a point if the draft class didn't have one of the best top 5 in NBAs draft history according to experts and draft anaylists thats been doing this for 20+ years....The top 5 in next years draft is the best they ever seen....That is pretty high praise....Getting into the top 5 next year could be franchise altering stuff....And the higher your draft lotto odds are the better chance that becomes a reality....And the position we are currently in right now which we all can agree we are not even a playoff team and maybe a play in team....That means your a below 500 team....The smarter thing would be to try and get the best talent in this stacked draft class that you can...

[Pointgod]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

[DreamTeam09]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

If that's the sentiment you got from my post then I unno, the Det pistons have been the woest team for like 5yrs & got #1 like once...
What I'm saying is you can deliberately tank and still be like the pistons and not win the lottery. So let's play out the season with the guys and see where the balls land (pause) and hope for some lotto luck rather than deliberately trying to tank & still relying on lotto luck regardless

[Scase]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

If that's the sentiment you got from my post then I unno, the Det pistons have been the woest team for like 5yrs & got #1 like once...
What I'm saying is you can deliberately tank and still be like the pistons and not win the lottery. So let's play out the season with the guys and see where the balls land (pause) and hope for some lotto luck rather than deliberately trying to tank & still relying on lotto luck regardless

There is a very large difference between the pistons tearing down their entire team, and us trading a singular player to get into the bottom 5. You go and use an absolute outlier like the Hawks hitting a 3% chance as some great example as to why we should just go full treadmill for the play in and hope for the best, and then also use a complete outlier like the garbage pistons as an excuse to not tank.

And then you put together a list of 11 players over 30 picks, where only 1 or 2 of them would be franchise altering picks, oh look at that, another 2-3% chance you think is a valid approach. For someone who doesn't like the concept of hoping for ping pong balls, you sure have a great outlook on significantly worse odds in other approaches.

I don't understand why it's so hard for people to grasp that you don't need to tear your entire team down to the foundation, to get a high pick. This team has been so reactive and non committal for years, it's time for proactivity and to stop letting jesus take the wheel.

[Rapsalot]

I don’t want to tank too long but 1 more year would be great if we do it smartly. Just say we have 6-7 players with less than 5 years and developing is our only way forward. Get below Chicago! 6th worse record or less wins!

Great if you can get Cooper or Ace wonderful if not I would take Khaman M if available! I like JP, KO, CB but none of them will be around when BBQ are ready to go deep in playoffs. Hopefully Khaman and Ulrich will be good to very good by then at least for traditional Cs even if 3s are not helping?
IMHO we have depth right now we need Cs for future and big wing that can be OG lite. OG is all NBA D and very good 3 if we could get someone 80-85% of his abilities that is 6’7” - 6’9” that can guard 1-4 we could move forward without more tanking.


I understand the BPA theory if you get a player that will be multi year close to Allstar but many drafts that player is not at the top or hard to find so, after top 3-4 players I normally would draft for need at the same rating. Example this year if we had the choice between Walter and Da Silva we should have taken Da Silva as Orlando did with earlier pick. Both teams needed bigger wings vs smaller wing even if they were projected very close longterm in the NBA due to fit. Same as Harrison Barnes would have fit our team better than TRoss long ago.
With that said I would try to use Pacers 2026 pick to have them pick for us this year and send back or other trade to get a 15-19 ish pick this year and bring in a bigger wing.

25-26 starters. IQ, RJB, 2025 15-19 ish pick, SB, Khaman Bench: DM/JS J’KW, GD, J Mogbo KO/Ulrich ( I like BB and JP but we should move for future assets )