If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most?

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If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#1 » by MarcusBrody » Fri Oct 4, 2024 7:23 pm

What teams stand to gain or lose the most if the league makes good on its claim of allowing more physicality? Would a rule enforcement change do anything to elevate/drop teams from contender status? Who does really well in a more physical league? Will the league revert after Christmas? Probably. But let's pretend it doesn't.


Some possible teams (focusing on playoff teams):

Improves?
Indiana - Mentioned in the article posted in the other thread. Currently commit the most fouls while being in the bottom 10 in FTA. Worst FT differential in the league. It likely depends where the physicality is allowed though. They play an aggressive press that ends up with fouls, but also have some legitimate poor defenders, so does it really help them?
Denver - 25th in FT differential, mostly because they take the second fewest FTA despite taking the least 3PA of any team. More physicality allowed probably helps Jokic's defense and Murray already draws fouls at a low rate for his position.
Golden State/Sacramento - they're the other fairly good teams at the bottom of the differential stats, but I'm not as sure if they'll benefit. They do commit a decent number of fouls. It probably depends whether the allowed physicality is quasi-handchecking (which wouldn't help them) or interior physicality, which might as they get a relatively larger amount of their points from 3s than their opponents.
Minnesota - They're a very physical team and could crank this up even more. Ant is strong enough to get to the basket with some contact.

Makes worse?
Philly - Obviously Embiid makes a living getting fouls off contact he initiates inside so people will talk about them, but neither Maxey nor George have super high free throw rates, so I'm not sure it affects them as much as people think. It probably depends on whether Embiid adjusts and takes advantage of the leeway on defense or complains and gets thrown off.
LA Lakers = They had the highest FTA differential in the league, so if more physicality meant everyone was more equal on FTA, I could see it harming them, but they're a really physical team and the FT gap was so anomalous that it's unclear if it will close.
Milwaukee - This is another tricky one. Giannis is obviously one of the most physical players in the game, but he does have a super high free throw rate, often where he initiates contact. Dame also has a super high free throw rate and he isn't getting any younger, so if that drops, it could really hinder his ability to be a top level wingman. I actually think that a change in reffing could hurt Milwaukee more than Philly or LA.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#2 » by UcanUwill » Fri Oct 4, 2024 7:29 pm

I am not sure Denver improves. More physicality to throw at Jokic, I imagine their rivals Minny improves from this, Denver the opposite.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#3 » by cgf » Fri Oct 4, 2024 7:38 pm

Orlando's defense was already terrifying. If they are allowed to be more physical they could just be devastating. Ditto the Wolves and Knicks once Mitch gets healthy.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#4 » by MarcusBrody » Fri Oct 4, 2024 7:56 pm

UcanUwill wrote:I am not sure Denver improves. More physicality to throw at Jokic, I imagine their rivals Minny improves from this, Denver the opposite.


I think that is a reasonable question. I think it doesn't benefit Denver against Minnesota who are probably even more physical, but it does against most other teams in the league, so I would still say it's a net positive for them. Also, I suspect that the discussed changes are probably still below a lot of the games in the Denver/Minny series, which were MUCH more physical than most NBA games.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#5 » by Message Boar » Fri Oct 4, 2024 8:23 pm

I'm not sure if I agree with the "this team had a bad FT differential last year, so they will be helped" logic either, but it'll probably end up being somewhat true for some of them. I know my Magic love to out-physical teams but fairly often get a bad whistle, so I'm hopeful it will be good, but time will tell. We do like to attack the paint to try to get to the line, so on the other end that could fade.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#6 » by Curmudgeon » Fri Oct 4, 2024 10:04 pm

Based on what I saw from Abu Dhabi, it will be a total pansy touch foul league, so the question is moot.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#7 » by floppymoose » Fri Oct 4, 2024 10:10 pm

It will hurt GS. GS is a skill/finesse team, not a strength team. When refs let opponents grab Curry as he moves without the ball, it definitely impacts GS offense. GS also draws charges, and it's unclear to me what "more physical" means for that. If it's code for "we will let defense do more", then it won't impact charges. But if it's code for "both sides can do more" then that will hurt GS there.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#8 » by meekrab » Fri Oct 4, 2024 10:40 pm

floppymoose wrote:It will hurt GS. GS is a skill/finesse team, not a strength team. When refs let opponents grab Curry as he moves without the ball, it definitely impacts GS offense. GS also draws charges, and it's unclear to me what "more physical" means for that. If it's code for "we will let defense do more", then it won't impact charges. But if it's code for "both sides can do more" then that will hurt GS there.

I'm not sure how they could allow the offense to "do more" without making the game literally physically dangerous for the defense. You can already basically commit assault and battery on offense as long as you look like you're sort of trying to score.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#9 » by LeBronSpaghetti » Fri Oct 4, 2024 10:52 pm

It will definitely help Denver. Perhaps the most physically imposing team in the league who dominates points in the paint yet doesn’t draw free throws because they don’t flop.

On the other hand this will of course hurt teams like the Sixers, OKC, Clippers, Mavs.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#10 » by nazario » Sat Oct 5, 2024 1:21 pm

floppymoose wrote:It will hurt GS. GS is a skill/finesse team, not a strength team. When refs let opponents grab Curry as he moves without the ball, it definitely impacts GS offense. GS also draws charges, and it's unclear to me what "more physical" means for that. If it's code for "we will let defense do more", then it won't impact charges. But if it's code for "both sides can do more" then that will hurt GS there.


Maaaybe. But whenever they've let it be more physical over time in the past GSW has thrived. They've never really been a team that has built it around offense first under Kerr, its mostly been defense. Sure it could impact Curry and the offense, especially as he is up there in years and tires more easily - but i wouldn't say that he has benefited unduly because of the "freedom of movement" in the past. He's always been grabbed and held a lot more than has been called.

Though i will say this, the personnel is different than previous iterations of GSW. There were more savvy vets before, and they could probably take more advantage of physical defense being allowed to a higher degree
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#11 » by SkyHook » Sat Oct 5, 2024 1:25 pm

Draymond. Silver opens the door to more of his assault and battery with little to no consequences.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#12 » by chilluminati » Sat Oct 5, 2024 2:27 pm

Any team with an aging superstar whose over the hill and is being protected by the whistle are gonna lose out on some advantage that's for sure.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#13 » by HotelVitale » Sat Oct 5, 2024 3:02 pm

MarcusBrody wrote:Philly - Obviously Embiid makes a living getting fouls off contact he initiates inside so people will talk about them, but neither Maxey nor George have super high free throw rates, so I'm not sure it affects them as much as people think. It probably depends on whether Embiid adjusts and takes advantage of the leeway on defense or complains and gets thrown off. .


I always think that Embiid's game is massively hurt by FT-hunting. He's unguardable one-on-one and when he stops looking for calls after his first move he starts thinking ahead and using one of his many counters. So when he's thinking foul-baiting he's at his worst offensively, and the foul-baiting is of questionable use too since he also probably leads in the league in failed foul-baits that end in a TO by a good amount (and it also brings out this immature competitive thing where he'd rather trick a guy than score, which takes him out of his scoring focus/mentality too).

Also the idea that he 'makes a living getting fouls he initiates' is pretty exaggerated. He averages 10-12 FTA per game, which is 5-6 possessions, and he also takes 20-22 shots per game. So about 1/4 of his pts are coming from FTs, and at minimum like 40% of those are other teams hacking him to prevent easier buckets. So maybe like 12-15% of his pts are coming from fouls he baits. It's definitely an annoying thing he does--and like I said it kinda bones him--but it's not why he's good or effective at all.

EDIT: an exception is his rip-through move, that's actually pretty smart/effective and the contact is usually clear, also doesn't go badly very often (though he sometimes gets stripped during it). Plus if it doesn't work he still has the ball in triple threat and can just make another move.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#14 » by dirkdiggler4177 » Sat Oct 5, 2024 3:07 pm

I think the Mavs improve because of the two-headed center, PJ, the new defender Marshall and Luka does not move his fit well, making it hard for him to guard using fitness, but if he can use his body more that is a plus. Same with Klay. The bad one is Kyrie who rarely gets calls because of his softness, always trying to acrobatic moves around the basket. Luka would struggle to in the start, but he is to smart and will adjust. Jumping into a shooter after a shot fake will always be a foul.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#15 » by bledredwine » Sat Oct 5, 2024 3:18 pm

Teams with more defense, strength and size gain. Weaker teams in these areas lose.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#16 » by shi-woo » Sat Oct 5, 2024 4:16 pm

Celtic's and surprised they aren't really mentioned. White and Jrue already wrecked the league last year, and allowing them to play with more grit and in your face would be devastating. Add Brown to that mix to. Celtic's D would go to another level, and their offense wouldn't really change much because we bomb 3's.

It won't show until next year, but the Magic are a team that you don't want to bang with soon. Right now they are still coming into their bodies, and learning to play through contact, but it's quite apparent that all 3 of Franz, Paolo, and Suggs are guys that have incredible size and ball control, and love to go down hill. Paolo and Franz with their size and fluidity can really impose their will on a game if it becomes a grind. They also have a solid defense that again, would improve just from the ooverall advantage of playing with more space and freedom would do.

All the best players in the league essentially will look 100x better. So essentially Luka, Giannis, and Jokic. I won't argue if you want to add Joel or Shai. Sure their counting stats might take a dig, but the more physical the game, and harder it is to score, the value of players who can impose themselves regardless increases.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#17 » by Sixers in 4 » Sat Oct 5, 2024 4:42 pm

When they physical it really depends on what they mean. I would like to see it go both ways. Really get rid of these fake charges and allow offensive players to be physical. Allow people to operate in the post and drive to the rim.

Also allow defenders to be more physical too to me the charge is the softest call in professional sports make them play actual man defense instead of trying to force turnovers. I think allowing players to be physical on both ends is going to increase the intensity, hurt feelings, and rivalries which is what the sport needs. They really need to move the 3PT shot back as well but we will see. Anything is better than spamming 3's and the emotionless nerd basketball we have seen the last decade.
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#18 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Oct 5, 2024 4:44 pm

bisme37 wrote:If there were magnets in basketballs so strong they changed the path of the ball as it flew through the air, wouldn't the ball then stick magnetically to the rim when it got there?
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#19 » by Sixers in 4 » Sat Oct 5, 2024 4:46 pm

What does Redick know about playing defense?
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Re: If the league is more physical this year, which teams gain/lose the most? 

Post#20 » by TravisScott55 » Sat Oct 5, 2024 5:45 pm

Knicks are in trouble, small guards don't do well in a physical league.

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