Tank World Order V (Rise of the Phoenix)

[Pointgod]

We are at a stage in the NBA where you can still have a respectable year and still be in the lottery.
Hawks won the lottery & lost in the play-in

Bout time we get some damn lotto luck tho, & this is the year!!

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

If that's the sentiment you got from my post then I unno, the Det pistons have been the woest team for like 5yrs & got #1 like once...
What I'm saying is you can deliberately tank and still be like the pistons and not win the lottery. So let's play out the season with the guys and see where the balls land (pause) and hope for some lotto luck rather than deliberately trying to tank & still relying on lotto luck regardless

The Detroit Pistons won the first overall pick to draft Cade and have had the #5 pick the next 3 years. This does not mean tanking is not a sound strategy, maybe it just means the Pistons suck at drafting.

I’m talking about a top 5 pick where there’s the highest probability of getting a franchise talent even if it isn’t the first overall pick.

2019 - Top 5 Ja, Zion, RJ, Hunter, Garland
#10 pick Cam Reddish
2020 - Top 5 Ant, Lamelo, Wiseman, Williams, Okoro
#10 pick was Jalen Williams
2021 -Top 5 Barnes, Mobley, Cade, Suggs and Green. #10 pick was Zhaire Williams
2022 - Top 5 Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr, Ivey, Murray
#10 pick was Johnny Davis
2023 - Top 5 Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Thompson Twins
#10 pick was Cason Wallace

Ignoring 2024, if you look at the past 5 drafts you would have had a better outcome randomly picking from the top 5 than just keeping the 10th pick. Gunning for the playin instead of taking a couple of years to scoop talent at the top of the draft is just a recipe for staying on the treadmill.

[ConSarnit]

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

If that's the sentiment you got from my post then I unno, the Det pistons have been the woest team for like 5yrs & got #1 like once...
What I'm saying is you can deliberately tank and still be like the pistons and not win the lottery. So let's play out the season with the guys and see where the balls land (pause) and hope for some lotto luck rather than deliberately trying to tank & still relying on lotto luck regardless

The Detroit Pistons won the first overall pick to draft Cade and have had the #5 pick the next 3 years. This does not mean tanking is not a sound strategy, maybe it just means the Pistons suck at drafting.

I’m talking about a top 5 pick where there’s the highest probability of getting a franchise talent even if it isn’t the first overall pick.

2019 - Top 5 Ja, Zion, RJ, Hunter, Garland
#10 pick Cam Reddish
2020 - Top 5 Ant, Lamelo, Wiseman, Williams, Okoro
#10 pick was Jalen Williams
2021 -Top 5 Barnes, Mobley, Cade, Suggs and Green. #10 pick was Zhaire Williams
2022 - Top 5 Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr, Ivey, Murray
#10 pick was Johnny Davis
2023 - Top 5 Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Thompson Twins
#10 pick was Cason Wallace

Ignoring 2024, if you look at the past 5 drafts you would have had a better outcome randomly picking from the top 5 than just keeping the 10th pick. Gunning for the playin instead of taking a couple of years to scoop talent at the top of the draft is just a recipe for staying on the treadmill.

I could see the argument for a playin push if we were looking at the 7th-8th seed but there is very little upside to getting the 10th seed. It’s hurts our draft position and the odds of us actually making the playoffs would be very low so the “getting experience” argument doesn’t hold a lot of water to me if it’s only 1-2 games. I’d argue there are now other ways to get “bigger game” experience and that’s through the NBA cup. By all accounts teams did try harder during those games and provided a more playoff-like experience. Use the NBA cup games as a pseudo playoff experience for our young guys while maintaining the lotto upside that comes with a being a bottom 5-6 team. The need for high end talent outweighs whatever benefit we might get from 1-2 playin games at this point.

[Pointgod]

The best group of prospects a draft expert has seen in 20 years and we’re talking play-in? Play-in?! Keep Barnes, RJ and Quickley. Trade anyone else who’s not on a rookie contract for whatever assets we can get. What are we even doing here?

Read on Twitter

[Jeremy Lin 7]

This team will be tanking by default. Have we seen our talent? Barnes, RJ, and Quickley are all complementary type players on a championship-level team. At best 2nd/3rd options in their peaks. We need a true #1 option. Hopefully, we can land that in this draft. If one of BBQ can elevate their game, great. But I wouldn't count on it.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

Flagg or Edgecombe would be dope

[Backcountry]

Assuming that we suck, my best case is a top-4 pick, plus a couple of others picked up by trading Brown and maybe Poeltl to some pretenders who then crash and burn, handing us their unprotected additional lottery picks.

But if we exceed expectations playing with joyful enthusiasm while the youngsters all ball-out, I'm good with that, too...

[Prestige]

There is absolutely no reason not to tank:

1- The team stank last year and ended up with no draft pick to show for it, and is currently mired in mediocrity
2- We have no franchise player or prospect who can become a superstar
3- Expectations are low with Ujiri explicity mentioning 'rebuilding' multiple times
4- This is one of the best drafts in recent years with many potential superstars available in the top 5

Why in the world would they try for another season of being a treadmill team? I would love to see this team start off on a positive note, then shut down key players and trade others to guarantee a tank.

[Scase]

lol what? The bottom 3 teams have around a 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick in the lottery. The bottom 4 and 5 have around 40 to high 40’s percent chance of a top 4 pick. The bottom 10th which is where the Hawks were had a 14% chance of a top 4 pick and 3% chance of the #1 pick. Why would you think that’s the path that makes sense vs securing a bottom 5 record?

If that's the sentiment you got from my post then I unno, the Det pistons have been the woest team for like 5yrs & got #1 like once...
What I'm saying is you can deliberately tank and still be like the pistons and not win the lottery. So let's play out the season with the guys and see where the balls land (pause) and hope for some lotto luck rather than deliberately trying to tank & still relying on lotto luck regardless

The Detroit Pistons won the first overall pick to draft Cade and have had the #5 pick the next 3 years. This does not mean tanking is not a sound strategy, maybe it just means the Pistons suck at drafting.

I’m talking about a top 5 pick where there’s the highest probability of getting a franchise talent even if it isn’t the first overall pick.

2019 - Top 5 Ja, Zion, RJ, Hunter, Garland
#10 pick Cam Reddish
2020 - Top 5 Ant, Lamelo, Wiseman, Williams, Okoro
#10 pick was Jalen Williams
2021 -Top 5 Barnes, Mobley, Cade, Suggs and Green. #10 pick was Zhaire Williams
2022 - Top 5 Banchero, Chet, Smith Jr, Ivey, Murray
#10 pick was Johnny Davis
2023 - Top 5 Wemby, Scoot, Miller, Thompson Twins
#10 pick was Cason Wallace

Ignoring 2024, if you look at the past 5 drafts you would have had a better outcome randomly picking from the top 5 than just keeping the 10th pick. Gunning for the playin instead of taking a couple of years to scoop talent at the top of the draft is just a recipe for staying on the treadmill.

Counter point, Giannis was drafted 15th. We're basically guaranteed a generational talent and championship, meanwhile you idiots want a top 5 pick because of probabilities. What a buncha dummies.

[C_Money]

There is absolutely no reason not to tank:

1- The team stank last year and ended up with no draft pick to show for it, and is currently mired in mediocrity
2- We have no franchise player or prospect who can become a superstar
3- Expectations are low with Ujiri explicity mentioning 'rebuilding' multiple times
4- This is one of the best drafts in recent years with many potential superstars available in the top 5

Why in the world would they try for another season of being a treadmill team? I would love to see this team start off on a positive note, then shut down key players and trade others to guarantee a tank.

This would put us out of the top 5. If we’re going to tank do it properly from the beginning.

[Scase]

There is absolutely no reason not to tank:

1- The team stank last year and ended up with no draft pick to show for it, and is currently mired in mediocrity
2- We have no franchise player or prospect who can become a superstar
3- Expectations are low with Ujiri explicity mentioning 'rebuilding' multiple times
4- This is one of the best drafts in recent years with many potential superstars available in the top 5

Why in the world would they try for another season of being a treadmill team? I would love to see this team start off on a positive note, then shut down key players and trade others to guarantee a tank.

This would put us out of the top 5. If we’re going to tank do it properly from the beginning.

You'd think the half-assed job last year would have gotten this through peoples heads.

[Jcity08]

Give me a high pick or give me death!

[Prestige]

There is absolutely no reason not to tank:

1- The team stank last year and ended up with no draft pick to show for it, and is currently mired in mediocrity
2- We have no franchise player or prospect who can become a superstar
3- Expectations are low with Ujiri explicity mentioning 'rebuilding' multiple times
4- This is one of the best drafts in recent years with many potential superstars available in the top 5

Why in the world would they try for another season of being a treadmill team? I would love to see this team start off on a positive note, then shut down key players and trade others to guarantee a tank.

This would put us out of the top 5. If we’re going to tank do it properly from the beginning.

You'd think the half-assed job last year would have gotten this through peoples heads.

The key is balancing getting good lottery odds and still being a respectable franchise that is not Pistons level bad. We dont want a Craptors situation Barnes becomes discontented, Quickly/RJ regress and fans come to games with paper bags and boo the team.

[ciueli]

The best group of prospects a draft expert has seen in 20 years and we’re talking play-in? Play-in?! Keep Barnes, RJ and Quickley. Trade anyone else who’s not on a rookie contract for whatever assets we can get. What are we even doing here?

Read on Twitter

No, sorry, we can't tank, Masai needs the Raptors to make the playoffs to save his career and hit the incentive clauses in his contract.

[WuTang_CMB]

The biggest tank commander on this team is Darko. He is going to play a deep rotation and give guys a chance. For this season thats the way it should be.

[Scase]

This would put us out of the top 5. If we’re going to tank do it properly from the beginning.

You'd think the half-assed job last year would have gotten this through peoples heads.

The key is balancing getting good lottery odds and still being a respectable franchise that is not Pistons level bad. We dont want a Craptors situation Barnes becomes discontented, Quickly/RJ regress and fans come to games with paper bags and boo the team.

I dont think a down year or two is going to collapse the franchise lol. Pistons fire sold the entire team, we don't need to do that.

[YogurtProducer]

This entire discourse reminds me SO much of the 2013 off-season when we had all the 2014 draft hype and how we would be lucky to end up with any of Wiggins, Embiid, Gordon, Parker, or Exum because they all had superstar potential.

Even more parallels, the 2014 draft followed up a horrible 2013 draft (Anthony Bennett year) and this year is following up the horrible 2024 draft.

[YogurtProducer]

The Detroit Pistons won the first overall pick to draft Cade and have had the #5 pick the next 3 years. This does not mean tanking is not a sound strategy, maybe it just means the Pistons suck at drafting.

The thing is, there is not any clear mistakes DET made.

2020 - Killian at #7 was horrible. But the next 3 guys were Toppin, Deni, Jalen Smith. Not exactly HUGE losses here.
2021 - Cade at #1 was consensus, and there is a legit chance Mobley, Barnes, Franz, Sengun, all are better.
2022 - Ivey at #5 is fine. Mathin, Sharpe, Daniels, Sochan, etc. were the next 4 and they are not significantly better.
2203 - Ausar Thompson - up next was Balck, Couliably, Walker, Hendricks, Wallace - again, no clear misses

Turns out drafting is as much luck as it is skill. Even if they drafted perfect and you assume they had a crystal ball and got Haliburton in 2020 (he went 12), Barnes in 2021, Mathurin in 2022, and probably still Thompson in 2023 they still are a bad team.

[ItsDanger]

Haliburton slipped to 12. ESPN had him 7th in their mock draft. Bleacher Report, CBS had him 6th.

[NinjaBro]

This entire discourse reminds me SO much of the 2013 off-season when we had all the 2014 draft hype and how we would be lucky to end up with any of Wiggins, Embiid, Gordon, Parker, or Exum because they all had superstar potential.

#TankforWiggins - tWo



"We need to trade Siakam for AJ Griffin before it's too late!" - PhilBlackson

[YogurtProducer]

Haliburton slipped to 12. ESPN had him 7th in their mock draft. Bleacher Report, CBS had him 6th.

DET also isnt just a Tyrese Haliburton away from a successful tank.