Now what?

[BlazersBroncos]

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

Waiting for the response...

He dodged it.

I will give mine - 28 wins.

[GEE]

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

Waiting for the response...

He dodged it.

I will give mine - 28 wins.

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

Like Norm just said, too many IFs to really give any kind of prediction. The main one being Chauncey and his new and improved coaching staff. I think he will be the biggest determining factor this season, for better or worse. I Love the Players we have, and to hear RW3 has been going 5 on 5 for many weeks erases what WAS my biggest concern . How is this not a solid team?

Simons / Scoot
Thybulle(thinking of B.Bowen) / Sharpe
Grant / Deni
RW3 / Reath
Ayton / ClingON

Players 11-15 are all studs as well. It will be up to Chauncey at this point IMHO. RIP CITY!

Did I dodge it? It's just impossible to predict at this point. Plus, Wins and Loses isn't the main focus IMO... growth, development and cohesion as a unit is of most importance at this point. Want a number? Fine.... more than 30, but likely less than 40.... 35 I guess. But if all the stars align, I don't see why we can't be a playoff team THIS YEAR.

Lakers and the Suns, with all of their superstars, How did they fair last year? It's a 5 on 5 game STILL, and no one player, even a prime Lebron by himself, is going to win you a championship. Our Blazers are a pack of angry dogs that are going to be a team no team in the NBA will look forward to playing.

Largely though, It's just wait and see. I used OKC as an example a while back, only because they blossomed at least a year earlier than expected, and I think the same could be true with our Blazers. Not saying it will, but I am saying that there's no guarantee that they are going to suck either.

RIP CITY!!!

[JRoy]

Waiting for the response...

He dodged it.

I will give mine - 28 wins.

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

I admire your optimism.

The idea that a playoff teams could have Simons and Scoot as it’s best guards is beyond me.

Like Norm just said, too many IFs to really give any kind of prediction. The main one being Chauncey and his new and improved coaching staff. I think he will be the biggest determining factor this season, for better or worse. I Love the Players we have, and to hear RW3 has been going 5 on 5 for many weeks erases what WAS my biggest concern . How is this not a solid team?

Simons / Scoot
Thybulle(thinking of B.Bowen) / Sharpe
Grant / Deni
RW3 / Reath
Ayton / ClingON

Players 11-15 are all studs as well. It will be up to Chauncey at this point IMHO. RIP CITY!

Did I dodge it? It's just impossible to predict at this point. Plus, Wins and Loses isn't the main focus IMO... growth, development and cohesion as a unit is of most importance at this point. Want a number? Fine.... more than 30, but likely less than 40.... 35 I guess. But if all the stars align, I don't see why we can't be a playoff team THIS YEAR.

Lakers and the Suns, with all of their superstars, How did they fair last year? It's a 5 on 5 game STILL, and no one player, even a prime Lebron by himself, is going to win you a championship. Our Blazers are a pack of angry dogs that are going to be a team no team in the NBA will look forward to playing.

Largely though, It's just wait and see. I used OKC as an example a while back, only because they blossomed at least a year earlier than expected, and I think the same could be true with our Blazers. Not saying it will, but I am saying that there's no guarantee that they are going to suck either.

RIP CITY!!!

[m0ng0]

33

[Pattycakes]

33

This is sound.

[dckingsfan]

33

This is sound.

What's your win prediction?

[Ptownsblazin12]

27 wins.

Tank has begun with Sharpe out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury.

[Walton1one]

Does Cronin deal any of the vets at the deadline or not? I have zero faith he will, the guy only seems to make trades when absolutely forced to do so

Even with Sharpe out, Deni is going to make this team better and they still have the high usage triumvirate of Ant/Grant/Ayton, so 26 wins? Pure guess, bad outcome if that happens, just the absolutely WORST year to not fully commit to the tank, from day 1.

[GEE]

I think the injury to Sharpe is very unfortunate, but saying that him being out 4-6 weeks indicates that we are surely tanking, is a bit premature I think. It's still very disappointing to hear though.

<Thinking of the Oden experience as I type>

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

I really REALLY hate all the talk about "tank for this player" or whatever.

Folks realize we don't control the lottery right? We could be the worst team and our odds at the #1 pick would be the same as the 4th worst team and could still easily end up with the 5th pick. You cannot put all your cards on a future draft player saving you, even if everything goes right and you win the lottery they could still be a bust, all you can do is play the hand you are dealt and cross that bridge when we come to it.

You have to make plans that don't depend on winning the lottery. Oh you just got Detroited and now your only plan is still just to tank another year? I cannot think of a more loser mentality honestly, like go build a team and let the draft picks be a cherry on top. This is especially true if you think the league manipulates the draft for entertainment purposes. For example the Deni trade was a great example of taking your fate into your own hands and not having your only plan be future draft picks. If that makes us a bottom 5 team instead of a bottom 3 team then that is a fine trade off, the relative odds don't really change much but at least you aren't sitting in one place dependent on a system beyond your control to save you.

I dunno. Opinions vary. I'm not saying we should trade away all our draft picks for vets or anything, just that we cannot depend on the draft to give us a specific player as the savior. You have to take your lumps with how the lottery luck plays out and you have to be ready to be dealt a less than ideal hand. It's one of the problems with stacking one position too heavily like we are at guard and center right now, then you might question if you should pass on BPA to get a better fit.

[Norm2953]

Detroit has been picking fifth ever since they drafted Cade, despite having one of the worst rosters

One cannot mindlessly tank each year and to Cronin's credit, Portland added a good player on a great
contract. Let's see if Portland's BC takes a step forward for their front court should be better.

[Walton1one]

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

I really REALLY hate all the talk about "tank for this player" or whatever.

Folks realize we don't control the lottery right? We could be the worst team and our odds at the #1 pick would be the same as the 4th worst team and could still easily end up with the 5th pick. You cannot put all your cards on a future draft player saving you, even if everything goes right and you win the lottery they could still be a bust, all you can do is play the hand you are dealt and cross that bridge when we come to it.

You have to make plans that don't depend on winning the lottery. Oh you just got Detroited and now your only plan is still just to tank another year? I cannot think of a more loser mentality honestly, like go build a team and let the draft picks be a cherry on top. This is especially true if you think the league manipulates the draft for entertainment purposes. For example the Deni trade was a great example of taking your fate into your own hands and not having your only plan be future draft picks. If that makes us a bottom 5 team instead of a bottom 3 team then that is a fine trade off, the relative odds don't really change much but at least you aren't sitting in one place dependent on a system beyond your control to save you.

I dunno. Opinions vary. I'm not saying we should trade away all our draft picks for vets or anything, just that we cannot depend on the draft to give us a specific player as the savior. You have to take your lumps with how the lottery luck plays out and you have to be ready to be dealt a less than ideal hand. It's one of the problems with stacking one position too heavily like we are at guard and center right now, then you might question if you should pass on BPA to get a better fit.

Yeah, I think for this year in particular, being one of the 3 worst teams makes a huge difference. We are not talking about a draft that has 1-2 potentially great players, we are talking about a draft that is looking like it will have 4 or 5, so ending up with ONE of those players is essential.

The teams with the worst 3 records have a 52.1% chance at a top 4 pick, equal chances at #1, #2, #3 or #4

The team with the worst record is guaranteed (100%) a Top 5 pick
The team with the 2nd worst pick has a 79.0% chance of a Top 5 pick
The team with the 3rd worst pick has a 66.9% chance of a Top 5 pick

After that it drops off significantly
The team with the 4th worst record has a 55.3% chance of a top 5 pick
The team with the 5th worst record has a 44.3% chance of a top 5 pick
after that @ #6, 37.2% chance of Top 5 (1-4, cannot get #5) and rapidly descending from there.

While "Capturing the Flagg" is certainly going to take luck, even with a bad record, ending up with any of the 4 other players: Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecome, Nolan Traore would potentially be a huge win for a team desperately in need of better talent.

So yeah, you need luck, however, you also need a GM who knows what in the heck he is doing. Not sure Cronin is such a GM.

[Walton1one]

Detroit has been picking fifth ever since they drafted Cade, despite having one of the worst rosters

One cannot mindlessly tank each year and to Cronin's credit, Portland added a good player on a great
contract. Let's see if Portland's BC takes a step forward for their front court should be better.

and in the 2025 draft, even dropping to #5 you would feel pretty good. Also, DET got a #1 pick out of the last 4 years and a player Cunningham who is already looking like a franchise player at age 23. POR doesn't even have such a player.

2021 - had 2nd worst record got #1
2022 - had 3rd worst record, got #5
2023 - had worst record, got #5
2024 - had worst record got #5

Are we also just going to discount the players they COULD have taken at #5?
2022 - Jalen Williams, Benedict Matherin, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason - they took Jaden Ivey
2023 - Derick Lively - They took Ausar Thompson, who had a decent 1st year, similar to other picks like Bilal Coulibaly & Cason Wallace Anthony Black went #6 and a lot of POR fans would love to have him. 2023 draft outside of Wembanyama\Miller\Lively is still too early to tell IMO

[Ptownsblazin12]

I think the injury to Sharpe is very unfortunate, but saying that him being out 4-6 weeks indicates that we are surely tanking, is a bit premature I think. It's still very disappointing to hear though.

<Thinking of the Oden experience as I type>

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

Sorry forgot green font.

I think with roster construction and what the roster looks like beside amazing health I don’t envision this roster to be anything above 16-24 in the first 40 games and we go back to what we have watched the last few years. I would imagine some feel with our veteran presence’s there is optimism we are trying to win.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

While "Capturing the Flagg" is certainly going to take luck, even with a bad record, ending up with any of the 4 other players: Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecome, Nolan Traore would potentially be a huge win for a team desperately in need of better talent.

Yeah, to be clear I am not knocking a "build through the draft" strategy as that is inevitable for small market teams with the current NBA rules, there just is no other way to get top end talent these days. To do so you need to be light on your feet and willing and able to make the most out of disappointing lottery results. Even if we get one of those top 5 players they could end up a bust. Scoot is a great example of highly anticipated prospects not really being the franchise savior everyone expected them to be and if we look most top picks still end up being not franchise worthy so all you can do is position yourself to take a couple swings at them and not getting too locked in over any particular player, at least until you win the #1 pick lottery. Lillard was the 6th pick so there are other opportunities to get that player.


It's the simp-like behavior of circling a specific player a year or several years out and saying we need to build a strategy around that player that I find so cringe worthy.

[Butter]

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

I really REALLY hate all the talk about "tank for this player" or whatever.

Folks realize we don't control the lottery right? We could be the worst team and our odds at the #1 pick would be the same as the 4th worst team and could still easily end up with the 5th pick. You cannot put all your cards on a future draft player saving you, even if everything goes right and you win the lottery they could still be a bust, all you can do is play the hand you are dealt and cross that bridge when we come to it.

You have to make plans that don't depend on winning the lottery. Oh you just got Detroited and now your only plan is still just to tank another year? I cannot think of a more loser mentality honestly, like go build a team and let the draft picks be a cherry on top. This is especially true if you think the league manipulates the draft for entertainment purposes. For example the Deni trade was a great example of taking your fate into your own hands and not having your only plan be future draft picks. If that makes us a bottom 5 team instead of a bottom 3 team then that is a fine trade off, the relative odds don't really change much but at least you aren't sitting in one place dependent on a system beyond your control to save you.

I dunno. Opinions vary. I'm not saying we should trade away all our draft picks for vets or anything, just that we cannot depend on the draft to give us a specific player as the savior. You have to take your lumps with how the lottery luck plays out and you have to be ready to be dealt a less than ideal hand. It's one of the problems with stacking one position too heavily like we are at guard and center right now, then you might question if you should pass on BPA to get a better fit.

DBR - I get your point. IMHO, there are two ways to tank.

1) pay a bunch of veterans at or above market price because your GM is afraid to lose a vet for nothing...THEN sit them the back half of the season

2) dump most/all the over priced veterans, and legitimately play the young talent to develop them

I have repeatedly stated that the Blazers salary cap to win ratio is completely unacceptable. I'm in favor of #2 and drafting the best players possible to build a young nucleus of talent


For a team like the Blazers, drafting high lottery picks and paying them lucrative extensions (IF THEY EARN THEM). is probably their best **** at contending someday

[DeBlazerRiddem]

DBR - I get your point. IMHO, there are two ways to tank.

I mean, my point isn't about not tanking. Its simply about being super laser focused on one particular player when reality dictates you more often than not have to make lemonade out of less than ideal lemons.

1) pay a bunch of veterans at or above market price because your GM is afraid to lose a vet for nothing...THEN sit them the back half of the season

2) dump most/all the over priced veterans, and legitimately play the young talent to develop them

I have repeatedly stated that the Blazers salary cap to win ratio is completely unacceptable. I'm in favor of #2 and drafting the best players possible to build a young nucleus of talent

Without defending Cronin, Vulcan and the Blazer brain trust's current decision making, I don't think there is inherently a problem with carrying a high salary on a bad team. There are two ways to use capspace to acquire additional draft capital

1. Acquire players for cheap because they aren't living up to their current contract and hope to increase their value and flip them later.
2. Go into the season with available capspace and facilitate deals for other teams by taking on unwanted salary.

I don't know which is a better strategy but they both leave you with higher salary cap than your talent or wins really warrants. And as long as you aren't in the tax and your owner is fine paying for it there isn't any real disadvantage to spending as much as possible in order to acquire extra draft capital or prospects who have lost their shine but might look better in a new environment.

As for playing young guys more to make them better... I just disagree. I think more players careers have been ruined by them getting too many minutes too early than them having to earn minutes behind more experienced players. Cream rises to the top, truly great players will get there regardless. With smaller roles young players can focus more on the details and minutia, give them too much too fast and they don't polish up all the little things because they are focused on staying on the floor and getting up shots. Lillard could have red-shirted his entire rookie season with us and he would still end up a great player, who knows he might have even been a better defender for it.

[Dominator83]

And I would like to also go on the record to say I am strongly opposed to Tanking another year, considering how little of an impact Scoot has had so far. Remember how so many on here raved about him, and argued how he was going to be the next coming, and worth sucking for an entire season. Just don't see things are much different from then. I might be willing to do it for Boozer's kid though. He's going to be a beast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Cronin make moves now, to set ourselves up to get him when he enters the draft. I would.

I really REALLY hate all the talk about "tank for this player" or whatever.

Folks realize we don't control the lottery right? We could be the worst team and our odds at the #1 pick would be the same as the 4th worst team and could still easily end up with the 5th pick. You cannot put all your cards on a future draft player saving you, even if everything goes right and you win the lottery they could still be a bust, all you can do is play the hand you are dealt and cross that bridge when we come to it.

You have to make plans that don't depend on winning the lottery. Oh you just got Detroited and now your only plan is still just to tank another year? I cannot think of a more loser mentality honestly, like go build a team and let the draft picks be a cherry on top. This is especially true if you think the league manipulates the draft for entertainment purposes. For example the Deni trade was a great example of taking your fate into your own hands and not having your only plan be future draft picks. If that makes us a bottom 5 team instead of a bottom 3 team then that is a fine trade off, the relative odds don't really change much but at least you aren't sitting in one place dependent on a system beyond your control to save you.

I dunno. Opinions vary. I'm not saying we should trade away all our draft picks for vets or anything, just that we cannot depend on the draft to give us a specific player as the savior. You have to take your lumps with how the lottery luck plays out and you have to be ready to be dealt a less than ideal hand. It's one of the problems with stacking one position too heavily like we are at guard and center right now, then you might question if you should pass on BPA to get a better fit.

Yeah, I think for this year in particular, being one of the 3 worst teams makes a huge difference. We are not talking about a draft that has 1-2 potentially great players, we are talking about a draft that is looking like it will have 4 or 5, so ending up with ONE of those players is essential.

The teams with the worst 3 records have a 52.1% chance at a top 4 pick, equal chances at #1, #2, #3 or #4

The team with the worst record is guaranteed (100%) a Top 5 pick
The team with the 2nd worst pick has a 79.0% chance of a Top 5 pick
The team with the 3rd worst pick has a 66.9% chance of a Top 5 pick

After that it drops off significantly
The team with the 4th worst record has a 55.3% chance of a top 5 pick
The team with the 5th worst record has a 44.3% chance of a top 5 pick
after that @ #6, 37.2% chance of Top 5 (1-4, cannot get #5) and rapidly descending from there.

While "Capturing the Flagg" is certainly going to take luck, even with a bad record, ending up with any of the 4 other players: Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecome, Nolan Traore would potentially be a huge win for a team desperately in need of better talent.

So yeah, you need luck, however, you also need a GM who knows what in the heck he is doing. Not sure Cronin is such a GM.

5 potential franchise players? Back in 2017 that's what they said about Fultz/Lonzo/Josh Jackson/Tatum. Only Tatum was a hit. Fox was the next best, and he's all-star level but really not franchise level imo. I'm sure there may be 2 or 3 hits in the top 5, but not sure if any draft has ever produced 5 franchise players. And if there has been, Im sure one or two of those were sleeper picks, not top 5 lotto picks.

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. It’s hard to suck as badly as last years’s Pistons and Wizards at 14 and 15 wins, respectively.
2. The Blazers will be the worst in the West with 20 wins. Less than 20 is some inspired, next level trades and tanking.
3. Some serious tanking begins on Day 1 for nearly 20% of the League.

[Wizenheimer]

2. Go into the season with available capspace and facilitate deals for other teams by taking on unwanted salary.

.

just so you know (you probably did), that in-season cap-space option has been constricted in the new CBA

teams can still have massive cap-space in the off-season; and use it as they have in the past. But on opening night, teams are required to be at the salary floor (90% of the salary cap). If they aren't at the floor or above, any cap-space they have below the floor is cancelled and their cap is adjusted up to the floor. Not only that, any team not at the floor when the season starts is prohibited from collecting any luxury tax disbursements at the end of the season (you can bet the Vulcans know about this rule)

in other words, the most cap-space any team can carry into the season is 10% of the cap. Considering that now teams can use their MLE like cap-space, carrying 10% of the cap in cap-space into a season doesn't have nearly the leverage it used to have

I'd also assume that occasionally, during training camps, we will see some scrub or aging veteran sign a big 1-year deal as teams make sure they aren't below the floor. Christmas in September for some lucky stiffs!
***********************************************

I don't agree with you about there being no significant issues with a crappy team having high team salary. At least not theoretically (again, the Vulcan factor is hard to game). I'll give a couple of examples

* as I mentioned above, teams are now allowed to treat their MLE's and BAE's like cap-space or TPE's. They can use those exceptions in trades. A team like Portland who is always flirting with the tax-line can't leverage that MLE because of the hard-cap at the apron. So, that's an option the Blazers would have

* in the last 15 months or so, the Blazers have allowed 32M in TPE's expire, in part, presumably, because of their high team salary. Those TPE's were the 8.6-8.7M exceptions for Hart, Payton, and Dame. And the 5.8M exception for Timelord

* also, as discussed, the Blazers don't have the option of using off-season cap-space as leverage, becasue of all the salary they are paying to low-impact vets