doclinkin wrote:Dat2U wrote:And I'm just the opposite. Castle was my 'do not draft' guy. Sarr was the extremely safe pick in my eyes based on his athleticism, length, IQ, defensive motor and success in the NBL where other prospects struggled. Rob Dillingham, who was right there in the same tier to me, would have been the flashy pick who compares favorably to Darius Garland.
Ron Holland & Reed Sheppard were 3 & 4. I liked Reed alot but I kept him at 4 because I did not view him as a guy capable of playing on the ball full time so being a undersized 6-2/6-3 SG made it tough for me to say take him at #2.
Post draft I'm still bearish on Castle. If he develops as you and Zards expect, it will go down as one of my bigger misses. At this level, to me it does not matter how well a guard defends or game manages if he does not have a reliable jumper or top 1% athleticism. Defenses will inevitably back off thusly screwing-up spacing and daring him to prove his shooting otherwise. You cannot be a PG if instead of putting pressure on defenses, teams back off and give you plenty of space... which takes away passing lanes and reduces driving lanes for others.
I think Castle's 7-10 from the FT line and swiftly improving 3 are the things that make a guy like him viable on offense. Especially the FT totals. The piece I think many folks are missing is the re-emphasis on physical defense in the 2nd half of last year. If the league stays consistent on allowing teams to hack and pressure, so there is not quite the same discrepancy between playoff calls and regular season call, then every team is going to need the kind of player who can score through contact and force refs to send them to the line. I suspect you will see teams hunting for those Marcus Smart type players more than the Trae Young and Dame types.
Consider the Celts who play Jrue and White. They are on court for their stifling defense and in-game smarts more than their powerhouse offense. But without them Tatum plays soft, and Brown is publicly sour that he is not getting noticed. Big physical guards will come back, as they did when the league allowed teams to muck it up and play large. Antman will be the prototype, and as such you will need Antman counters. The little guys are sure to be swarmed and swallowed up. You want to recruit that swarm, especially if you have a tough player who can bounce off defenders and force fouls to be called when he gets loose on the interior. Pace and space is no longer the metagame. What you want are players who can score despite lacking space. You can get that from above the rim athleticism, but also from the solid cannonball types who score with leverage, angles and heads-up recognition.
Yes a three ball is nice, so is shot creation, I'm saying the stat we need to watch more carefully in tracking draft picks is FT attempts. Ideally And-1 chances, though there's no one tracking that in box scores. Guys who play physical and force the action will be the next 'lanky 3 & D' types that every team is hunting. Watch as 3FG attempts and percentages take a dip. Then find yourself the guy who forces that dip.
Yeah, but he'll never be a Jaylen Brown or Derrick White on offense because he doesn't shoot well enough. Being the next Jrue is his best bet, but Jrue is an extreme outlier in being reasonably effective on offense without a reliable shot or first step. I think Marcus Smart is a better comparison. Smart was an interesting player, but one often wondered if his utility on defense was enough to offset his detriment on offense.
