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Predictions for the 2024/25 Season

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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#61 » by Knightro » Sat Oct 12, 2024 12:55 am

Bensational wrote:No, I simply asked what your threshold is to consider AB as a PG.

If you want to say AB didn't meet your standards of acceptable PG play and he has a lot more development to go through, by all means you're entitled to that opinion. If you want to say that AB barely played PG or took on the responsibilities of PG, or that his skills, capabilities and aggressiveness limited his effort in that role, again that's fair and reasonable and your prerogative. I'm not pretending that there's an abundance of times where AB was running point, but as seen above, he did play the role. "At all" and "exclusively" is your hyperbole you fall into when your opinion isn't accepted absolutely, and it's bad faith discussion.

That's why I asked what your threshold is to regard AB as a PG. What parameters must he fulfil for you to consider him a PG? If the above isn't enough for you to consider him a PG in development, what does he need to do to qualify?


*Sigh*

Ben... it's not literal.

Of course Black got some assists. It's impossible to play basketball for more than 1000 minutes in a season and not get assists. Gary Harris had 87 assists and no one would accuse him of being a point guard.

But the actual numbers that matter are what they are. Black barely dribbled the ball last year. Black barely touched the basketball in the halfcourt last year. The amount of reps he actually got on the basketball compared to the amount of reps he stood in the corner and didn't move was what... 10 to 1 in favor of the stand still and wait? 15 to 1? 20 to 1?

That's not developing a guy as an on-ball player in any respect.

When a guy plays 95%+ of his time off the basketball, you obviously understand what I'm saying.

Trying a "gotcha! it wasn't 100% of the time so screw your hyperbole!" thing is just silly, man.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#62 » by thelead » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:23 am

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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#63 » by Knightro » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:27 am

Bensational wrote:That's why I asked what your threshold is to regard AB as a PG. What parameters must he fulfil for you to consider him a PG? If the above isn't enough for you to consider him a PG in development, what does he need to do to qualify?


I would say not having 90%+ of his reps coming off the basketball would be a reasonable start.

I would say not finishing 11th on the team in halfcourt touches would be another reasonable start.

Now obviously these things aren't really in his control, but if the coaching staff doesn't see him as an on-ball player, which they clearly did not last year...

And again, I want to re-emphasize... I do like Anthony quite a bit. But he was an off-ball player as a rookie and appears primed to be one again this year.

And I don't even think that's a bad thing! I just think it's goofy that a couple of people love to shout "OH NO HE'S A POINT GUARD, YOU'RE WRONG!" when he clearly was not one last year and doesn't appear like he's going to be one again this year.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#64 » by basketballRob » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:31 am

The hoodlums are throwing up gang signs.

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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#65 » by eyriq » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:35 am

Anthony Black is a Point Guard: Wikipedia
Anthony Black is a Point Guard: Fox Sports
Anthony Black is a Guard: ESPN
Anthony Black is a Guard: NBA
Anthony Black is a Point Guard: Basketball Reference
Anthony Black is a Point Guard: NBA 2K
Anthony Black is a Combo: Cleaning the Glass

So lets see:

Point Guard: 4
Guard: 2
Combo: 1
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#66 » by Bensational » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:36 am

Knightro wrote:*Sigh*

Ben... it's not literal.



Knightro wrote:I’m not at all saying that Anthony Black tried to play point guard and that he didn’t perform it at a high-level. Thats not what happened and that’s not what I suggested.

I’m factually pointing out that he didn’t play point guard at all as a rookie.

They used him exclusively as a 3&D wing and any suggestion otherwise is just false.


Funny, because when someone claims something is factual it’s generally considered literal.

“Any suggestion otherwise is just false… (until I’m fact checked and then I’ll claim I didn’t mean this literally)”

*EDIT - just saw your previous response after I posted this. Deleted it because it’s addressed in the next post.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#67 » by Bensational » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:41 am

Knightro wrote:I would say not having 90%+ of his reps coming off the basketball would be a reasonable start.

I would say not finishing 11th on the team in halfcourt touches would be another reasonable start.


Ok, this is a fair baseline for evaluation - this is all I’ve been asking for from the start!

How do you think his role has looked this preseason relative to his role last season? Obviously it’s been a bit of a mess with changing lineups, but it seems clear they’ve got plans for putting him on the ball more this season.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#68 » by Knightro » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:46 am

thelead wrote:Image


I'm not going to lie to you... this whole thing frustrates me in a big way. The evidence is overwhelming. It's not a debate.

Unfortunately for me and everyone else forced to read it, I'm sometimes (all the time?) addicted to arguing my point when I'm certain that I'm right.

So... apologies for that :nonono:
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#69 » by Knightro » Sat Oct 12, 2024 1:52 am

Bensational wrote:Ok, this is a fair baseline for evaluation - this is all I’ve been asking for from the start!

How do you think his role has looked this preseason relative to his role last season? Obviously it’s been a bit of a mess with changing lineups, but it seems clear they’ve got plans for putting him on the ball more this season.


I think they clearly have plans for Black to play regular rotation minutes which is a good thing.

But the sense I'm getting is that he'll be primarily in an off ball/wing type of role again like last season.

It's only two preseason games and multiple veterans sat out the second one, so it's hard to judge much off that, but Black's on-ball reps have mostly come later in games against the opposing scrubs and once the regular Magic rotation guards have been subbed out for the night.

The first preseason game, which was probably closer to a "normal" rotation given that everybody played compared to the second one, Black came in for KCP and played off the ball next to Suggs and then remained off ball next to Cole.

I don't expect that to change all that much. He'll have grab and go opportunities, transition and semi transition opportunities where he should be able to shine (a la Fultz), but when things slow down into a halfcourt setting, if he's in with the starters, I expect him to be standing still and waiting for a pass to come his way for a catch-and-shoot or to attack a hard closeout.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#70 » by Bensational » Sat Oct 12, 2024 2:32 am

Knightro wrote:The first preseason game, which was probably closer to a "normal" rotation given that everybody played compared to the second one, Black came in for KCP and played off the ball next to Suggs and then remained off ball next to Cole.


Nah. Go back and watch that game again, because AB was closer to a 50-50/40-60 split with Cole on running plays/initiating the offense.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#71 » by zaymon » Sat Oct 12, 2024 6:49 am

Skybox wrote:
zaymon wrote:Our offense is worse than last year becouse we lost Ingles.
Howard earns rotation spot.
Cole loses rotation spot.
Suggs fails as point guard.
We win less games than last year and fall to play ins.
I also think we will get a new point guard after season.


Sure hope you’re wrong…but that’s as fact-based as any other projection out there. In that mindset, I might add “#2 defense in the NBA, but nobody notices”. They just didn’t address their gaping holes…it’s like a team with Gobert signing Walker Kessler, just doubling down on a position of “non-need”…the only way KCP is a mastermind move is if Suggs is ultimately traded and/or Black makes a great leap as a game manager.


If Howard is good enough to earn a spot and we solve our "guard initiator" problem i dont think season is a failure even if we are in play ins. Last year was a close one, and we had less health problems than others and our offense was powered by Ingles.
Our guard situation screams for a trade. I think Suggs not getting extension is not a coincidence.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#72 » by pepe1991 » Sat Oct 12, 2024 7:22 am

We can argue what point guard position means to each and every one of us individually.
To me point guard is guard who has ballhandling skills to get rid of ball pressure, is lucid and creative enough to break defense and makes right basketball decisions, off ball he either moves to create space or is treat to keep his defender inganged.
But to me, most important trait of PG is ability to control tempo and stay composed when things go south.


For example, i always thought George Hill was not point guard, especially during his Spurs stint. He was on paper- starting PG, especially in 2010 when Greg Popovich was doing some experimentations with Tony Parker off bench ( due injury? Really can't remember) and it was "point guard Hill" and Manu playing in starting 5, unlike his usual 6th man role.
And "starting point guard George Hill" in first round, over 6 games collected 4 assists. Four assist total.
In second round he collects 3 assists in 4 games. Total.


In all this, true point guard was "small forward- guard" Ginobili ,as starter, or Parker as bench guard ( started 2/10 games in playoffs).

Over years George at times was "point guard" on teams, but almost all teams he was part on, usually had some other ballhandler/on ball player/ crunch time decision maker, as George would slide into defacto shooting guard ( as he was really good at it ).
That was his value. Defense , 3s and not being usage guy. But also he was not skilled enough to be traditional playmaker. Maybe that's moral of the story especially for veteran players? Know what you are not and work on stuff that makes you valuable? Suggs grabbed that SG role and embraced it, unlike pretending that he is something he is not ( ballhandling playmaker). I respect him for that.


My point is - it doesn't matter what internet page say about position, your ROLE ON COURT defines your position.


But let's expend to bigger picture. What is worst PG on a team that went to Conference finals since 2015?
I picked most random year . First i started with 2016 than added 2015 :dontknow:

2015: Teague/Kyrie / Curry /Harden
2016:Kyrie/ Lowry / Curry /Westbrook
2017: I. Thomas / Kyrie / Parker /Curry
2018: G.HIll / Smart / Harden / Curry.... *Lebron was PG not Hill*
2019: Lowry / Bledsoe vs Curry /LIllard
2020: Dragić /Kemba / Lebron/ Jamal Murray
2021: Trae / Jrue / Chris Paul / Reggie Jackson
2022: Lowry / Smart ( White) / Curry / Luka
2023: Vincent / Smart(White) / Lebron / Jamal Murray * Jimmy Butler was actual PG not Vincent*
2024: Jrue / Haliburton / Luka / Conley


Among 40 teams that passed first two rounds of playoffs only: Celtics ( Smart/White), Clippers ( Reggie Jackson) , Eric Bledsoe ( Bucks) and Nuggets -Jamal Murray ( would 100% be allstar on East ) are teams that did not have allstar level guard to get that far.
To answer own question: worst PG to get to CF is Reggie Jackson.
Rest of the worst included : all nba first team members ( Smart, Bledsoe) and Jamal, who, in playoffs is better than vast majority of allstar players, not just allstar guards.

It's not really hard to come to conclusion that strong PG isn't luxury, but apsolute need for deep playoffs.

PG position isn't just one of most pivotal positions but also most competitive positions in basketball.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#73 » by Skybox » Sat Oct 12, 2024 12:25 pm

basketballRob wrote:The hoodlums are throwing up gang signs.

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Usually, a PG gets Points & Assists listed
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#74 » by drsd » Sat Oct 12, 2024 2:54 pm

Skybox wrote:Usually, a PG gets Points & Assists listed


Suggs, Black, and Anthony combined for 4 assists in the San Antonio game. No one should feel good about that.
That played 51 friggen minutes collectively.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#75 » by eyriq » Sat Oct 12, 2024 3:58 pm

ESPN BPI is really fascinating. Here are tiers based on the model. Comparing this to the betting market, BPI is really low on the Knicks and relatively high on the Heat.

Elite Championship Contenders
Celtics, 76ers, Thunder, Mavs

Strong Playoff Contenders
Cavs, Wolves, Nuggets, Bucks, Heat, Grizzlies

Mid-Tier and Play-In Teams
Suns, Lakers, Kings, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Rockets, Knicks, Warriors, Magic, Bulls, Hornets, Hawks

Rebuild and Lottery-Bound Teams
Nets, Raptors, Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Pistons, Wizards
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#76 » by p0peye » Sat Oct 12, 2024 4:48 pm

drsd wrote:
Skybox wrote:Usually, a PG gets Points & Assists listed


Suggs, Black, and Anthony combined for 4 assists in the San Antonio game. No one should feel good about that.
That played 51 friggen minutes collectively.


So, 3 guys that are not PG couldn't manage to get assists, despite having no real PG on the roster to take opportunity away from them.

Spending most time with the ball is pretty accurate indicator that a player is playing point role, traditionally that would be guard at point guard position.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#77 » by drsd » Sat Oct 12, 2024 5:07 pm

eyriq wrote:ESPN BPI is really fascinating. Here are tiers based on the model. Comparing this to the betting market, BPI is really low on the Knicks and relatively high on the Heat.

Elite Championship Contenders
Celtics, 76ers, Thunder, Mavs

Strong Playoff Contenders
Cavs, Wolves, Nuggets, Bucks, Heat, Grizzlies

Mid-Tier and Play-In Teams
Suns, Lakers, Kings, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Rockets, Knicks, Warriors, Magic, Bulls, Hornets, Hawks

Rebuild and Lottery-Bound Teams
Nets, Raptors, Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Pistons, Wizards



I would bet pepe's house that Orlando will be above either the Cavs or the Heat at season's end; maybe both. And the Bucks is one injury away from missing the playoffs.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#78 » by eyriq » Sat Oct 12, 2024 5:24 pm

drsd wrote:
eyriq wrote:ESPN BPI is really fascinating. Here are tiers based on the model. Comparing this to the betting market, BPI is really low on the Knicks and relatively high on the Heat.

Elite Championship Contenders
Celtics, 76ers, Thunder, Mavs

Strong Playoff Contenders
Cavs, Wolves, Nuggets, Bucks, Heat, Grizzlies

Mid-Tier and Play-In Teams
Suns, Lakers, Kings, Pelicans, Clippers, Pacers, Rockets, Knicks, Warriors, Magic, Bulls, Hornets, Hawks

Rebuild and Lottery-Bound Teams
Nets, Raptors, Blazers, Jazz, Spurs, Pistons, Wizards



I would bet pepe's house that Orlando will be above either the Cavs or the Heat at season's end; maybe both. And the Bucks is one injury away from missing the playoffs.
Agreed. I think this model leans heavily on a rolling window of seasons and real-plus-minus, so it will be biased towards track record and experience.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#79 » by Fortune Teller » Sat Oct 12, 2024 6:06 pm

Not having a PG, much less a quality PG, is going to set this team back this season. Opponents have a full season of game tape to defend an already impotent offense. It’s malpractice that Welt ignored the position again this summer.
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Re: Predictions for the 2024/25 Season 

Post#80 » by Max Power » Sun Oct 13, 2024 3:04 am

Here’s my thoughts on the season..

51 wins and a division title.
Number 1 defense in the NBA
2nd round playoff exit.

The number 1 defense is why they’ll get that far. I don’t see anyone leveling up offensively except for maybe Franz. Suggs will do what he did last season.
You look confused...let me fill you in.

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