OT: Lonnie Walker, Updates

[Hal14]

One could say that the sample size isn't 3 or 4 preseason games, though. They've both been in the league for a few years. You could compare careers, age difference notwithstanding. I'm curious, who do you think would be more likely to play effective minutes this year, Springer or Walker? I don't particularly care about a few years from now, personally. We need to completely sell out on winning now before the salaries and punitive taxes force ownership to dump some big salaries. To my eye, so far, it seems that Walker would be far more likely than Springer to have a positive impact this year (and I am a huge fan of Springer's defense), but I am interested in hearing which you think would be better this year.

I'll let you know after tomorrow night's game.

But I also think it's kind of a moot point. They're not really in competition with each other. Springer has a guaranteed contract. Walker is exhibit 10. Walker is moreso competing with the strong likelihood (according to Brad himself) that they'll roll with 14 guys to start the season..

The real question is, "is what Walker brings to the table worth it? Does it make sense to sign him, given the other 14 guys on the roster and what they bring to the table..or does it make more sense to leave that spot open, and save around $8-10 mil on the tax bill, and have more flexibility for future moves?"

Not necessarily moot. Brad could probably move off of Springer's contract by attaching a second if he wanted to keep Walker and still retain an open spot and actually save ~8M doing so (if Brad could pull that off like Sac just did). I was more curious about who you think could better contribute this year. I think it's Walker.

It's not that easy to do that. You can't just snap your fingers and poof, make a trade happen. It doesn't work like that. Especially this time of year - a few days before opening night, it's rare for trades to happen this time of year. Trade action doesn't typically pick up. until closer to the deadline.

Sure, the Jalen Mcdaniels trade just happened but that's the exception - not the rule. It's also poor asset management to trade assets for a guy..then turn around and trade that guy away and include draft compensation to do so. Just because the Kings did it, doesn't mean the celtics will. Brad is better than that. The Kings make lots of head scratching moves. They have 1 playoff appearance in like the past 30 years.

Those situations are also a bit different. Mcdaniels is 2 years older than Springer. So he's got less upside, is closer to a finished product. So you need him to be good..otherwise he's not worth keeping on the roster. Shooting has been a weakness throughout Jalen's career and in preseason for the Kings he shot 0/5 from deep (and a TS% of like 30, yikes). Compare that to Springer, who's 3/6 from 3 in preseason (9/18 from 3 over his last 7 games), a TS% of 55.8, while. being 2 years younger - and is a better defender than Jalen Mcdaniels too.

Again, the 2 year age difference is pretty significant in this comparison. If 2 years from now Springer is still here, is still limited on offense and comes in to camp and shoots 0/5 from 3 on a 30% TS, then sure..by all means let's give him the boot and dump his salary i a trade, like the Kings did with Mcdaniels. But that's not the case.

This scenario has been brought up a few times on twitter..Keith Smith and Bobby Manning both said it's unlikely they would dump Springer in a trade, just to make room for Walker..

As for who is likely to contribute more this season for the Celtics between springer and Walker, again..ask me after tomorrow night's game..I'd prefer to wait and get more data before rushing to judgment on a small sample size. But again, I think it's likely a moot point..

[Bill Lumbergh]

The parsimonious reason for keeping Walker: He's better than Springer, and would likely be a rotation player.

Brad has plenty of time to decide if he wants to keep Springer or move off him. How he came here is a sunk cost, and a small one at that. Brad won't care about the optics of that at all.

[chrisab123]

It would be pretty bad if the Celtics cut Walker. He can be an asset as we’ve seen the last two games.

[Homerclease]

It would be pretty bad if the Celtics cut Walker. He can be an asset as we’ve seen the last two games.

The only guy on the team last year to play all 82 games was Pritchard. Having Walker as a 10 million dollar insurance policy is a good thing. It’s clear Scheierman isn’t ready, and it doesn’t look like Springer is much closer either. That leaves Walsh as your sole guard and wing depth outside your main rotation guys. Scheierman not being able to do anything at an NBA level has really forced their hand here. They have to keep Walker, or they go into the season with no proven wing depth outside of Hauser. Brissett and Svi are gone

[Dogen]

The parsimonious reason for keeping Walker: He's better than Springer, and would likely be a rotation player.

Brad has plenty of time to decide if he wants to keep Springer or move off him. How he came here is a sunk cost, and a small one at that. Brad won't care about the optics of that at all.

The main issue seems to be paying that lux tax in a year where the team is for sale. Doesn't look financially "prudent" as they say.

Walker seems like a no-brainer, and I think Springer is a keeper. But if someone has to go, he's the likely candidate. OTOH, it's not in Brad's DNA to sell at a loss. People are saying we'd need to attach at least a 2nd rounder to move the contract, but Springer is worth more than that.

I assume Lonnie can spend time in Maine and sign a regular contract later in the year. Maybe something at the trade deadline if players are moved and allows to get Wlker in without the tax hit. I'm out of my league on the contracts and numbers.

[Celts17Pride]

The parsimonious reason for keeping Walker: He's better than Springer, and would likely be a rotation player.

Brad has plenty of time to decide if he wants to keep Springer or move off him. How he came here is a sunk cost, and a small one at that. Brad won't care about the optics of that at all.

The main issue seems to be paying that lux tax in a year where the team is for sale. Doesn't look financially "prudent" as they say.

Walker seems like a no-brainer, and I think Springer is a keeper. But if someone has to go, he's the likely candidate. OTOH, it's not in Brad's DNA to sell at a loss. People are saying we'd need to attach at least a 2nd rounder to move the contract, but Springer is worth more than that.

I assume Lonnie can spend time in Maine and sign a regular contract later in the year. Maybe something at the trade deadline if players are moved and allows to get Wlker in without the tax hit. I'm out of my league on the contracts and numbers.

It would be criminal if the Celtics let $10 million keep them from signing a better player and increasing their chances for a championship. This is mosty likely the last year the Celtics keep the team together. Next year I am assuming they start shaving off pieces. This is the year to take a big swing.

[Dogen]

It would be pretty bad if the Celtics cut Walker. He can be an asset as we’ve seen the last two games.

The only guy on the team last year to play all 82 games was Pritchard. Having Walker as a 10 million dollar insurance policy is a good thing. It’s clear Scheierman isn’t ready, and it doesn’t look like Springer is much closer either. That leaves Walsh as your sole guard and wing depth outside your main rotation guys. Scheierman not being able to do anything at an NBA level has really forced their hand here. They have to keep Walker, or they go into the season with no proven wing depth outside of Hauser. Brissett and Svi are gone

Overall, it's an upgrade if the team can get the numbers to work. I agree about the 10M, but it's not my money. Brad needs to work the owners, but it's a tough call.

Walsh replaces Brisset, Walker replaces Svi, Springer replaces whatever it was that Banton and Stevens were supposed to be. Overall, I'll take it! But the dollars don't work this year.

If Scheierman looked better out there, it would make it easier to move Springer, or pass on Walker, or even trade Scheierman. For now, there is an impass. I just hope the team keeps Walker around. A deep bench of, say, Queta, Walsh, Walker with Hauser and Pritchard out there looks really dynamic and well balanced. Walker gives the team another way to open up the floor, and his willingness to move the ball in the non-Abu Dhabi preseason games has been a revelation. They must be trying to figure out a way to keep him.

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

Smitty and I are of the same mind here. In any case, I don't think it's that big of a deal if they don't sign Walker and even if they send Scheierman to Maine. The playoff rotation's set anyway (the same one that won a title) barring injury. Develop Walsh and give him real minutes (well, whatever minutes they gave Brissett and Svi last season). Hauser should play more too (and get more shots). Even Pritchard can up his minutes to about 3-4 more a game if need be. The garbage minutes can go to literally anyone who's in uniform.

[Hal14]

It would be criminal if the Celtics let $10 million keep them from signing a better player and increasing their chances for a championship. This is mosty likely the last year the Celtics keep the team together. Next year I am assuming they start shaving off pieces. This is the year to take a big swing.

Was it criminal last season when we chose to leave the 15th roster spot open for basically the entire season, until converting Queta with like a week left in the reg season?

Gee, that sure turned out horribly for us.

Oh and Walker was a FA last summer..we passed on him (like every other team in the league besides Brooklyn) and it worked out just fine.

Let's not get overly dramatic here.

Brad said a few weeks ago that we'll likely leave the 15th spot open (again) and the exhibit 10 guys will likely end up in Maine:

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2024/08/where-celtics-roster-stands-heading-into-quiet-part-of-nba-offseason.html

Last offseason, we could've signed Walker in free agency instead of Brissett. Was that criminal that we signed Brissett instead? We could have signed TJ Warren, Terance Davis, Austin Rivers or one of the other FA wings who some might say is a certified bucket getter like Lonnie, but we signed Lamar Stevens instead..was that criminal? Even after we signed STevens, we had 1 roster spot remaining and we could've signed one of those bucket getters, but we left the 15th roster spot open instead..was that criminal?

[Hal14]

Overall, it's an upgrade if the team can get the numbers to work. I agree about the 10M, but it's not my money. Brad needs to work the owners, but it's a tough call.

Walsh replaces Brisset, Walker replaces Svi, Springer replaces whatever it was that Banton and Stevens were supposed to be. Overall, I'll take it! But the dollars don't work this year.

If Scheierman looked better out there, it would make it easier to move Springer, or pass on Walker, or even trade Scheierman. For now, there is an impass. I just hope the team keeps Walker around. A deep bench of, say, Queta, Walsh, Walker with Hauser and Pritchard out there looks really dynamic and well balanced. Walker gives the team another way to open up the floor, and his willingness to move the ball in the non-Abu Dhabi preseason games has been a revelation. They must be trying to figure out a way to keep him.

Svi did basically nothing all last season, except play garbage time. And anytime he did play garbage time, everyone on here just whined about him taking all the shots and not passing the ball to Walsh lol.

Scheierman and Peterson combined can easily give you what Svi did last season. Which again, was basically nothing.

[Homerclease]

The main issue seems to be paying that lux tax in a year where the team is for sale. Doesn't look financially "prudent" as they say.

Walker seems like a no-brainer, and I think Springer is a keeper. But if someone has to go, he's the likely candidate. OTOH, it's not in Brad's DNA to sell at a loss. People are saying we'd need to attach at least a 2nd rounder to move the contract, but Springer is worth more than that.

I assume Lonnie can spend time in Maine and sign a regular contract later in the year. Maybe something at the trade deadline if players are moved and allows to get Wlker in without the tax hit. I'm out of my league on the contracts and numbers.

It would be criminal if the Celtics let $10 million keep them from signing a better player and increasing their chances for a championship. This is mosty likely the last year the Celtics keep the team together. Next year I am assuming they start shaving off pieces. This is the year to take a big swing.

Was it criminal last season when we chose to leave the 15th roster spot open for basically the entire season, until converting Queta with like a week left in the reg season?

Gee, that sure turned out horribly for us.

Oh and Walker was a FA last summer..we passed on him (like every other team in the league besides Brooklyn) and it worked out just fine.

Let's not get overly dramatic here.

Brad said a few weeks ago that we'll likely leave the 15th spot open (again) and the exhibit 10 guys will likely end up in Maine:

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2024/08/where-celtics-roster-stands-heading-into-quiet-part-of-nba-offseason.html

Last season is irrelevant

[165bows]

Read on Twitter

Smitty and I are of the same mind here. In any case, I don't think it's that big of a deal if they don't sign Walker and even if they send Scheierman to Maine. The playoff rotation's set anyway (the same one that won a title) barring injury. Develop Walsh and give him real minutes (well, whatever minutes they gave Brissett and Svi last season). Hauser should play more too (and get more shots). Even Pritchard can up his minutes to about 3-4 more a game if need be. The garbage minutes can go to literally anyone who's in uniform.

Right, though the minutes also includes (I assume) fewer minutes for KP and Al Horford also. Imo it's Tillman, Hauser (like you said, that's a good call it's him as to who eats more minutes, as he's also more ready and healthy than these other guys), Queta, and then filling in after that is the deep bench crew.

[Dogen]

Overall, it's an upgrade if the team can get the numbers to work. I agree about the 10M, but it's not my money. Brad needs to work the owners, but it's a tough call.

Walsh replaces Brisset, Walker replaces Svi, Springer replaces whatever it was that Banton and Stevens were supposed to be. Overall, I'll take it! But the dollars don't work this year.

If Scheierman looked better out there, it would make it easier to move Springer, or pass on Walker, or even trade Scheierman. For now, there is an impass. I just hope the team keeps Walker around. A deep bench of, say, Queta, Walsh, Walker with Hauser and Pritchard out there looks really dynamic and well balanced. Walker gives the team another way to open up the floor, and his willingness to move the ball in the non-Abu Dhabi preseason games has been a revelation. They must be trying to figure out a way to keep him.

Svi did basically nothing all last season, except play garbage time. And anytime he did play garbage time, everyone on here just whined about him taking all the shots and not passing the ball to Walsh lol.

Scheierman and Peterson combined can easily give you what Svi did last season. Which again, was basically nothing.

My point is that Walker is an upgrade over Svi. And better than Scheierman or Peterson.

But since Rico has a guaranteed contract, and Peterson is a 2-Way, and Svi is gone, Walker isn't competing with those guys for a spot.

There's really no clear path for Walker. It's the money. I don't see the team moving on from any of the 14, except perhaps a Springer trade, which is a very unlikely move in order to get Walker.

Anyway, unlike Svi et al, Walker has a legit microwave role that he can contribute. Sucks for him tho that there is not a path to roster spot.

We can look forward to one of our rivals picking him up, unfortunately.

[shackles10]

The 2nd we gave up for Springer is a sunk cost. Can't keep making future decisions because you're afraid you'll lose what you already spent and Brad isn't one to fall into a gambler's fallacy either. Teams (including the Celtics) give up 2nd rounders or more to take a flyer on a young player all the time. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't and that's what makes it a flyer. Most of the time you have more of an opportunity to see if it works out than what Springer has gotten, but sometimes you win the title, resign your guys, have an ownership change, a guy you were interested in the same time you were considering Springer falls into your lap, and you have to reevaluate it all. It's also short-sighted to say Walker's deal cost the team $10m, but not consider Springer's deal or Walsh's deal or hell even JB's deal all contribute towards the tax so have the multiplier. If they keep 15 it is simply adding $10m to the bill, but if they let someone else go to keep it at 14 that'd save them x amount of dollars. We could choose to just let Walker go and save the money that way or we could choose to attach a late 2nd to a guy like Springer to save the money (that'd be Brad's/ownerships call on if the attached 2nd is worth the cost or not, but shouldn't have anything to do with what they already paid to obtain Springer).

Lots of factors in play here we really don't know about... What was the determining factor in trading for Springer instead of Walker? Did the Nets want more than the Sixers and were playing hardball perhaps? Did we feel if he fell to a vet min market again we'd have a chance to wait a few months and sign him as there was mutual interest without giving up any assets compared to Springer needed to be acquired as he wasn't a free agent in the summer? Did they feel different about Walsh's development then compared to now and how would that impact how they'd like to fill out the rest of the cheap parts of the roster and maybe they don't feel Springer is as needed now? Do they feel different about Hauser and PP's offensive development and see them adding parts to their game that would make Walker not as needed compared to when they were interest at the deadline so everything now is just a favor to him and he's got no real shot at the roster? I trust Brad to make these decisions and consider way more things we don't even know are in play for roster building. If he's needing more time they could always keep Walker until the deadline, or Springer until the deadline, or keep Walker in Maine and see how it goes because tax isn't a big deal until the end of the season anyways. The only drawback to Walker in Maine is he's not on a 2-way so can't come up and play with the big boys occasionally and truly see how it all fits.

[playa-hater]

The parsimonious reason for keeping Walker: He's better than Springer, and would likely be a rotation player.

Brad has plenty of time to decide if he wants to keep Springer or move off him. How he came here is a sunk cost, and a small one at that. Brad won't care about the optics of that at all.

The main issue seems to be paying that lux tax in a year where the team is for sale. Doesn't look financially "prudent" as they say.

Walker seems like a no-brainer, and I think Springer is a keeper. But if someone has to go, he's the likely candidate. OTOH, it's not in Brad's DNA to sell at a loss. People are saying we'd need to attach at least a 2nd rounder to move the contract, but Springer is worth more than that.

I assume Lonnie can spend time in Maine and sign a regular contract later in the year. Maybe something at the trade deadline if players are moved and allows to get Wlker in without the tax hit. I'm out of my league on the contracts and numbers.

I'd imagine if Someone pays 6 billion for the team, and extra 10 million will be pocket change.

[Dogen]

The parsimonious reason for keeping Walker: He's better than Springer, and would likely be a rotation player.

Brad has plenty of time to decide if he wants to keep Springer or move off him. How he came here is a sunk cost, and a small one at that. Brad won't care about the optics of that at all.

The main issue seems to be paying that lux tax in a year where the team is for sale. Doesn't look financially "prudent" as they say.

Walker seems like a no-brainer, and I think Springer is a keeper. But if someone has to go, he's the likely candidate. OTOH, it's not in Brad's DNA to sell at a loss. People are saying we'd need to attach at least a 2nd rounder to move the contract, but Springer is worth more than that.

I assume Lonnie can spend time in Maine and sign a regular contract later in the year. Maybe something at the trade deadline if players are moved and allows to get Walker in without the tax hit. I'm out of my league on the contracts and numbers.

I'd imagine if Someone pays 6 billion for the team, and extra 10 million will be pocket change.

One would think. But people that have made a lot of money are in the business of making more. And they don't like paying taxes.

So we might think, "hey, this guy Walker is a good break-glass-in-case-of-emergency signing to shore up the deep bench and help secure #19", but buyers are going to be looking at every line, every expenditure, and question these decisions. They may not even care about championships, just the bottom line if it is a profitable purchase.

Of course, I'm with you on this. If we can scrape together 6 billion between us, let's sign Walker and go for it (you'll need to put up about 5,999,998,000 amigo, I'm good for 2K!).

[ConstableGeneva]

The fans on RealGM have contributed to a championship more than Lonnie Walker ever will. And we never got paid $10M. Where's our $10M, Wyc?

[Homerclease]

The fans on RealGM have contributed to a championship more than Lonnie Walker ever will. And we never got paid $10M. Where's our $10M, Wyc?

I’m confident I could shoot the same percentage around the rim as Queta! Willing to accept the vet min Brad

[Hal14]

Noa talks about Lonnie on her podcast that was posted yesterday, starting at the 9:15 mark..and if you keep listening till around the 16:15 mark, she also touches on Springer and Walsh..

Watch on YouTube

She says that everything she has heard points to Walker starting the season in Maine, that's what she fully expects.

[ConstableGeneva]

Anyway, whatever SBOBO Stevens decides, just know that he's infallible and all-knowing.