Pelicans / Clippers / Blazers: get Zion a center

[gswhoops]

:cry:

But you are not getting Ingram here and still getting a 1st. NOP would not be sending a 1st in this trade and LAC would have to send one to NOP. Then Portland would have to decide if they want out of the Ayton business a year early by receiving expirings for him only. Would need a 3rd team offering expiring for Powell which I think is a possibility. But it seems like squeezing blood from a stone is the preferred Ayton trade from Portlands pov.

Ok, so to recap, Pelicans fans view Ingram as high value, and adding a 1st to get clear of his extension is not going to happen.

I do not follow to Pelicans closely, but it looks like these are my incorrect assumptions about Ingrams:

1- they do not intend to pay Ingram a max contract
2- the trade market for him this last summer was less than what their FO hoped for
3- they need a legit center to play next to Zion
4- Pels fans believe NO should receive draft picks for a player no other franchise is willing to trade for
5- if Ingram publicly demands a trade, #2 gets worse
6- the new salary apron makes Ingrams contract unacceptable for most franchises

IF any or all are true, then I predict NO will be stuck with Ingrams, and he will sign somewhere else as a free agent after his current deal expires.

The bolded is the crazy part. You don't need to *get clear* of an extension. You can just not offer one. Ingram is a good player who simply wants more than his current market value, but he'll still have good player on an expiring contract at the deadline trade value.

Conversely, if the Pelicans don't trade for Ayton, there's a really good chance the Blazers are stuck paying him (or doing what the Suns did and taking back a worse player on a smaller bad contract).

Amen.

BI is a good player whose contract expires after this year. If you don't think he's worth what he's asking for, then you simply let him walk (or the market doesn't bear out his demands, and he ends up re-signing for less than a max).

Ayton is not a good player who is locked into a well-above-market contract. If you don't think he's worth what he's being paid, you're SOL.

The idea that Ayton is worth *more* than BI (or even just the same as BI) is ridiculous. Maybe, if NO was desperate for a center and just wanted to move on from BI (neither of which appear to be true) they might do the swap straight up. But no way they add to BI to end up with Ayton.

[Butter]

:cry:

But you are not getting Ingram here and still getting a 1st. NOP would not be sending a 1st in this trade and LAC would have to send one to NOP. Then Portland would have to decide if they want out of the Ayton business a year early by receiving expirings for him only. Would need a 3rd team offering expiring for Powell which I think is a possibility. But it seems like squeezing blood from a stone is the preferred Ayton trade from Portlands pov.

Ok, so to recap, Pelicans fans view Ingram as high value, and adding a 1st to get clear of his extension is not going to happen.

I do not follow to Pelicans closely, but it looks like these are my incorrect assumptions about Ingrams:

1- they do not intend to pay Ingram a max contract
2- the trade market for him this last summer was less than what their FO hoped for
3- they need a legit center to play next to Zion
4- Pels fans believe NO should receive draft picks for a player no other franchise is willing to trade for
5- if Ingram publicly demands a trade, #2 gets worse
6- the new salary apron makes Ingrams contract unacceptable for most franchises

IF any or all are true, then I predict NO will be stuck with Ingrams, and he will sign somewhere else as a free agent after his current deal expires.

The bolded is the crazy part. You don't need to *get clear* of an extension. You can just not offer one. Ingram is a good player who simply wants more than his current market value, but he'll still have good player on an expiring contract at the deadline trade value.

Conversely, if the Pelicans don't trade for Ayton, there's a really good chance the Blazers are stuck paying him (or doing what the Suns did and taking back a worse player on a smaller bad contract).

You see that I was agreeing with you that I was OFF on my original assumption, right?

[Butter]

:cry:

Ok, so to recap, Pelicans fans view Ingram as high value, and adding a 1st to get clear of his extension is not going to happen.

I do not follow to Pelicans closely, but it looks like these are my incorrect assumptions about Ingrams:

1- they do not intend to pay Ingram a max contract
2- the trade market for him this last summer was less than what their FO hoped for
3- they need a legit center to play next to Zion
4- Pels fans believe NO should receive draft picks for a player no other franchise is willing to trade for
5- if Ingram publicly demands a trade, #2 gets worse
6- the new salary apron makes Ingrams contract unacceptable for most franchises

IF any or all are true, then I predict NO will be stuck with Ingrams, and he will sign somewhere else as a free agent after his current deal expires.

The bolded is the crazy part. You don't need to *get clear* of an extension. You can just not offer one. Ingram is a good player who simply wants more than his current market value, but he'll still have good player on an expiring contract at the deadline trade value.

Conversely, if the Pelicans don't trade for Ayton, there's a really good chance the Blazers are stuck paying him (or doing what the Suns did and taking back a worse player on a smaller bad contract).

Amen.

BI is a good player whose contract expires after this year. If you don't think he's worth what he's asking for, then you simply let him walk (or the market doesn't bear out his demands, and he ends up re-signing for less than a max).

Ayton is not a good player who is locked into a well-above-market contract. If you don't think he's worth what he's being paid, you're SOL.

The idea that Ayton is worth *more* than BI (or even just the same as BI) is ridiculous. Maybe, if NO was desperate for a center and just wanted to move on from BI (neither of which appear to be true) they might do the swap straight up. But no way they add to BI to end up with Ayton.

I never said Ayton was better. My entire premise is based on positional value. Is Brandon Ingram a more talented basketball player? Yes. Is it easier for the Pelicans to plug in Herb Jones at the 3 than to get production out of their current centers? I believe so.

My premise is that trading for Ayton and NOT extending BI to a max would have more benefit to the franchise.

If I'm wrong, I guess this fictional GM board is still a fun way to talk about basketball.

[ConSarnit]

:cry:

The bolded is the crazy part. You don't need to *get clear* of an extension. You can just not offer one. Ingram is a good player who simply wants more than his current market value, but he'll still have good player on an expiring contract at the deadline trade value.

Conversely, if the Pelicans don't trade for Ayton, there's a really good chance the Blazers are stuck paying him (or doing what the Suns did and taking back a worse player on a smaller bad contract).

Amen.

BI is a good player whose contract expires after this year. If you don't think he's worth what he's asking for, then you simply let him walk (or the market doesn't bear out his demands, and he ends up re-signing for less than a max).

Ayton is not a good player who is locked into a well-above-market contract. If you don't think he's worth what he's being paid, you're SOL.

The idea that Ayton is worth *more* than BI (or even just the same as BI) is ridiculous. Maybe, if NO was desperate for a center and just wanted to move on from BI (neither of which appear to be true) they might do the swap straight up. But no way they add to BI to end up with Ayton.

I never said Ayton was better. My entire premise is based on positional value. Is Brandon Ingram a more talented basketball player? Yes. Is it easier for the Pelicans to plug in Herb Jones at the 3 than to get production out of their current centers? I believe so.

My premise is that trading for Ayton and NOT extending BI to a max would have more benefit to the franchise.

If I'm wrong, I guess this fictional GM board is still a fun way to talk about basketball.

I think the issue is there are probably a bunch of ways NOP can skin the cat and end up in a better spot than just trading BI for Ayton.

Some playoff team would probably give up a non-lotto 1st to rent Ingram. NOP probably doesn't think that's great value but it's at least something. I would also wager that NOP could get an Ayton-adjacent center (ex. Poeltl or Claxton) for a non-lotto 1st. This would be a net neutral transaction for NOP but they'd still get a starting C while saving $10m a year. If NOP takes on Ayton and has to pay Murphy $30m that's going to push them into the tax.

To me, Ayton is a "we'll take him but we're not giving up anything for him" type of player, but pretty much only for a team that is in dire need of a C. I believe he can function as a solid starting C but he's overpaid by $10m a year. I can't see any world in which he could net a positive asset and the absolute best POR can hope to do is to get off him without having to pay.

A more interesting question to me would be: CJ for Ayton. Who has to add to that deal? NOP can run:

Murray
Murphy
Ingram
Zion
Ayton

They can try to break Ingram into rotation pieces and a 1st later on and move Jones into the starting lineup. POR rides outs CJ's slightly smaller deal. It's a weird type of deal where I could see both POR and NOP wanting to get paid to take on the other guy so I can't nail down the value.

[Butter]

Amen.

BI is a good player whose contract expires after this year. If you don't think he's worth what he's asking for, then you simply let him walk (or the market doesn't bear out his demands, and he ends up re-signing for less than a max).

Ayton is not a good player who is locked into a well-above-market contract. If you don't think he's worth what he's being paid, you're SOL.

The idea that Ayton is worth *more* than BI (or even just the same as BI) is ridiculous. Maybe, if NO was desperate for a center and just wanted to move on from BI (neither of which appear to be true) they might do the swap straight up. But no way they add to BI to end up with Ayton.

I never said Ayton was better. My entire premise is based on positional value. Is Brandon Ingram a more talented basketball player? Yes. Is it easier for the Pelicans to plug in Herb Jones at the 3 than to get production out of their current centers? I believe so.

My premise is that trading for Ayton and NOT extending BI to a max would have more benefit to the franchise.

If I'm wrong, I guess this fictional GM board is still a fun way to talk about basketball.

I think the issue is there are probably a bunch of ways NOP can skin the cat and end up in a better spot than just trading BI for Ayton.

Some playoff team would probably give up a non-lotto 1st to rent Ingram. NOP probably doesn't think that's great value but it's at least something. I would also wager that NOP could get an Ayton-adjacent center (ex. Poeltl or Claxton) for a non-lotto 1st. This would be a net neutral transaction for NOP but they'd still get a starting C while saving $10m a year. If NOP takes on Ayton and has to pay Murphy $30m that's going to push them into the tax.

To me, Ayton is a "we'll take him but we're not giving up anything for him" type of player, but pretty much only for a team that is in dire need of a C. I believe he can function as a solid starting C but he's overpaid by $10m a year. I can't see any world in which he could net a positive asset and the absolute best POR can hope to do is to get off him without having to pay.

A more interesting question to me would be: CJ for Ayton. Who has to add to that deal? NOP can run:

Murray
Murphy
Ingram
Zion
Ayton

They can try to break Ingram into rotation pieces and a 1st later on and move Jones into the starting lineup. POR rides outs CJ's slightly smaller deal. It's a weird type of deal where I could see both POR and NOP wanting to get paid to take on the other guy so I can't nail down the value.

Well thought out post.

Defiantly do not see CJ coming back to Portland, that ship has sailed. The Blazers need to get away from undersized SG, especially with Simons on the roster.

Good luck with the season!

[BlazersBroncos]

I never said Ayton was better. My entire premise is based on positional value. Is Brandon Ingram a more talented basketball player? Yes. Is it easier for the Pelicans to plug in Herb Jones at the 3 than to get production out of their current centers? I believe so.

My premise is that trading for Ayton and NOT extending BI to a max would have more benefit to the franchise.

If I'm wrong, I guess this fictional GM board is still a fun way to talk about basketball.

I think the issue is there are probably a bunch of ways NOP can skin the cat and end up in a better spot than just trading BI for Ayton.

Some playoff team would probably give up a non-lotto 1st to rent Ingram. NOP probably doesn't think that's great value but it's at least something. I would also wager that NOP could get an Ayton-adjacent center (ex. Poeltl or Claxton) for a non-lotto 1st. This would be a net neutral transaction for NOP but they'd still get a starting C while saving $10m a year. If NOP takes on Ayton and has to pay Murphy $30m that's going to push them into the tax.

To me, Ayton is a "we'll take him but we're not giving up anything for him" type of player, but pretty much only for a team that is in dire need of a C. I believe he can function as a solid starting C but he's overpaid by $10m a year. I can't see any world in which he could net a positive asset and the absolute best POR can hope to do is to get off him without having to pay.

A more interesting question to me would be: CJ for Ayton. Who has to add to that deal? NOP can run:

Murray
Murphy
Ingram
Zion
Ayton

They can try to break Ingram into rotation pieces and a 1st later on and move Jones into the starting lineup. POR rides outs CJ's slightly smaller deal. It's a weird type of deal where I could see both POR and NOP wanting to get paid to take on the other guy so I can't nail down the value.

Well thought out post.

Defiantly do not see CJ coming back to Portland, that ship has sailed. The Blazers need to get away from undersized SG, especially with Simons on the roster.

Good luck with the season!

I would need a protected 1st to move Ayton for CJ - and it would have to be part of a deal that sends Simons out to team X as well.

[_NoMas]

Seems like a no brainier for the clips. Essentially Powell for BI (and the added bonus of taking Pj tucker off their hands).

[lordjeff05]

I think the issue is there are probably a bunch of ways NOP can skin the cat and end up in a better spot than just trading BI for Ayton.

Some playoff team would probably give up a non-lotto 1st to rent Ingram. NOP probably doesn't think that's great value but it's at least something. I would also wager that NOP could get an Ayton-adjacent center (ex. Poeltl or Claxton) for a non-lotto 1st. This would be a net neutral transaction for NOP but they'd still get a starting C while saving $10m a year. If NOP takes on Ayton and has to pay Murphy $30m that's going to push them into the tax.

To me, Ayton is a "we'll take him but we're not giving up anything for him" type of player, but pretty much only for a team that is in dire need of a C. I believe he can function as a solid starting C but he's overpaid by $10m a year. I can't see any world in which he could net a positive asset and the absolute best POR can hope to do is to get off him without having to pay.

A more interesting question to me would be: CJ for Ayton. Who has to add to that deal? NOP can run:

Murray
Murphy
Ingram
Zion
Ayton

They can try to break Ingram into rotation pieces and a 1st later on and move Jones into the starting lineup. POR rides outs CJ's slightly smaller deal. It's a weird type of deal where I could see both POR and NOP wanting to get paid to take on the other guy so I can't nail down the value.

Well thought out post.

Defiantly do not see CJ coming back to Portland, that ship has sailed. The Blazers need to get away from undersized SG, especially with Simons on the roster.

Good luck with the season!

I would need a protected 1st to move Ayton for CJ - and it would have to be part of a deal that sends Simons out to team X as well.

That's fair and definitely doable

[Walton1one]

I like the concept of POR getting more of MIL picks. Love the leverage play (ala HOU\PHX, BRK\HOU)

What if by trading for Ayton, NO could get under the 2nd apron?

Ayton\Banton (if cut before 1\10,save $1.9mil)
for
Ingram\Earl\Reeves & either Theis (cannot happen until DEC) or Green (cannot happen until NOV) +MIL 27'' 1st?

Would that make a difference?

[Scoot McGroot]

I like the concept of POR getting more of MIL picks. Love the leverage play (ala HOU\PHX, BRK\HOU)

What if by trading for Ayton, NO could get under the 2nd apron?

NO is well below the 2nd apron already. In fact, they’re hard capped at the first apron, so they won’t touch the 2nd apron all year, no matter what. They’re only $1ish million over the tax.

Ayton\Banton (if cut before 1\10,save $1.9mil)
for
Ingram\Earl\Reeves & either Theis (cannot happen until DEC) or Green (cannot happen until NOV) +MIL 27'' 1st?

Would that make a difference?

If Banton is used for salary matching, he’d have to be guaranteed. Otherwise, even if he’s not guaranteed until January, if you keep him until December or November to be waived for his partial guarantee, you still have his salary paid on the books for the 1-3 months you’ve kept him.

But no. I can’t see NO paying a first to turn Ingram into Ayton. It’d be much cheaper to dump someone else and get under the tax than to pay a first to do this, and thus create an even worse salary issue for next year.

[Walton1one]

Yeah, disregard my bad, looking at too many teams\ cap numbers and mixing things up

I can’t see NO, trading away a 1st and Ingram for Ayton, and they have no cap issues (MIL does)

[Wizenheimer]

Oh, in that case, strongly agree that there is no reason to expect the Blazers can get anything they'd want for Ayton. He is empty stats, not a leader, and is the very opposite of a bargain. This is why I expect him to finish his contract in Portland. I just hope they don't extend him.

that POV is depressing for a long-time Blazer fan like me....meaning it's probably accurate

I agree, Ayton is high-usage empty calories on offense, and minimal impact on defense. That's the opposite of what a modern C should be IMO. The Blazers apparently coveted Ayton for 2 years even though Lillard didn't want him. So the Blazers traded Lillard and got Ayton as a main part of the return seems a pretty poor commentary on the evaluation abilities of the Blazer FO.

my worry, as a long-suffering Blazer fan is that Cronin will be like Olshey and double down on a bad decision by re-signing Ayton to another ridiculously bloated contract

[Tim Lehrbach]

Oh, in that case, strongly agree that there is no reason to expect the Blazers can get anything they'd want for Ayton. He is empty stats, not a leader, and is the very opposite of a bargain. This is why I expect him to finish his contract in Portland. I just hope they don't extend him.

that POV is depressing for a long-time Blazer fan like me....meaning it's probably accurate

I agree, Ayton is high-usage empty calories on offense, and minimal impact on defense. That's the opposite of what a modern C should be IMO. The Blazers apparently coveted Ayton for 2 years even though Lillard didn't want him. So the Blazers traded Lillard and got Ayton as a main part of the return seems a pretty poor commentary on the evaluation abilities of the Blazer FO.

my worry, as a long-suffering Blazer fan is that Cronin will be like Olshey and double down on a bad decision by re-signing Ayton to another ridiculously bloated contract

It's a proud tradition: Darius Miles and Theo Ratliff, CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard... Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton??? Step 4. Profit!

[Butter]

Curious about New Orleans fans thoughts on Ayton after last night's game? 10 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks.

Not asking about any trades, just his overall play.

[YayBasketball]

Curious about New Orleans fans thoughts on Ayton after last night's game? 10 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks.

Not asking about any trades, just his overall play.

I saw most of it. And he started out strong, but then he seemed to completely fold in the 2nd half. I can see why he gets the label of 'soft' and disengaged.

[Euphonetiks]

Ayton looked clueless defensively and was really inefficient on offense. He takes too many shots away from the rim. Given how Missi has looked and that Theis is fine as a minimum guy, I am pretty confident the Pels FO has no interest in Ayton. Hes not a great fit in this team and they don’t want to spend a bunch of money on a center who doesn’t defend well, nor space.

[ThatBoyNick]

It's been years with the Pelicans getting random centers next to Zion that don't fit great, get the man a stretch 5 for the love of god. KAT came and went on the market for cheap. Brook Lopez might free up but he's getting too old.

WCJ is a good one, even Isaac or Mortiz Wagner could be solid targets from the Magic. Olynyk, Portis, tire kick to Bamba. And of course, Myles Turner should be the ultimate target.

[balsamic_ducks]

Curious about New Orleans fans thoughts on Ayton after last night's game? 10 points, 15 rebounds, 2 blocks.

Not asking about any trades, just his overall play.

I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Zero interest in Ayton

[cucad8]

Can't see how a pelicans fan could have watched last night and had their interest in Ayton increased at all.