Defense: Peak Jrue, Caruso, or Smart?

DraymondGold · Post #1 » by **DraymondGold** » Thu Oct 3, 2024 8:56 pm

Who's the best defender? Peak Jrue Holiday vs Peak Alex Caruso vs Peak Marcus Smart.

If you have any other recent guard defender over all of them (e.g. Matisse Thybulle, GPII), that would also be interesting to hear.

Special_Puppy · Post #2 » by **Special_Puppy** » Sat Oct 5, 2024 4:36 pm

Caruso easily

Top 5 Defenders in 28 Year D-RAPM
1.Kevin Garnett -6.4
2.Dikembe Mutombo -5.6
3. Draymond Green -5.3
4. Rudy Gobert -5.3
5. *Alex Caruso* -5.3

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WMfP-GVHXCjPfp2sMnBjWB301OtO3LO7n-EKoBSl-iQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

DraymondGold · Post #3 » by **DraymondGold** » Sun Oct 6, 2024 7:07 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:Caruso easily

Top 5 Defenders in 28 Year D-RAPM
1.Kevin Garnett -6.4
2.Dikembe Mutombo -5.6
3. Draymond Green -5.3
4. Rudy Gobert -5.3
5. *Alex Caruso* -5.3

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WMfP-GVHXCjPfp2sMnBjWB301OtO3LO7n-EKoBSl-iQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Hi Special_Puppy -- that's pretty impressive from Caruso! He's still in the middle of his career without older seasons to pull him down (is this plain RAPM, and not age-adjusted or anything like that?) and this is a career-RAPM rather than a peak RAPM (this could just be saying he's more consistent, rather than actually being better than peak Jrue/Smart/etc.)... but even still he's over Duncan, Ben Wallace, old Robinson, and old Alonso Mourning.

Among top career perimeter defenders, it looks like this career RAPM value goes: Caruso -5.3, Tony Allen -4, Paul George -3.7, Luc Mbah a Moute -3.6 (though he's more of a power forward), Metta World Peace / Ron Artest -3.3, Iguodala -3.3, Immanuel Quickley -3.3, Andre Roberson -3.3, Bruce Brown -3.2. Caruso (and Tony Allen a decade ago) are not just over a lot of the best centers, but they're also over the best wings too.

Just a few more stats I've found:

Alex Caruso

Spoiler:

Jrue Holiday:

Spoiler:

Marcus Smart:

Spoiler:

So it looks like pure impact metrics do generally go Caruso > Jrue > Smart. Smart does surpass recent Jrue in more accurate all in one stats like EPM (although I don't have EPM for younger Jrue).

Two questions for you or others:
1. Do you think Caruso's doing anything specific better than the others? Is it better point of attack defense or better perimeter disruption, in an era where that's really valued? Something else?
Or is it something about his role / situation / fit that's helping him seem more impactful? Defensive stats can be less accurate than offensive ones, in part because team defense relies a lot more on subtle positioning/communication/cohesion factors, which can be both harder to measure (in e.g. box stats) and harder to properly credit who in the lineup is responsible for the value (in e.g. plus minus stats). So it could be Caruso's role/situation is more favorable to his impact metrics, although I'm not sure.

2. Do you have concerns about Caruso's lower minute/possession rate? All these stats are per 100 possessions, but Caruso plays fewer possessions per game than the others. Caruso peaked at ~26 minutes per game in the 23/24 RS, while Jrue was hitting ~35 in the 19/20 RS (and still ~33 in 21/22), while Smart was hitting around ~32 in the 22/23 RS. That might help close the impact gap when you adjust the stats from per 100 possessions to per game, but it also raises the question of whether Caruso's motor would be able to sustain the higher impact defense if he played longer. He did up his minutes in the 20–22 playoffs, but unfortunately he hasn't made the playoffs during his defensive peak in the past two seasons.

Thoughts?

Post #4 » by **trex_8063** » Sun Oct 6, 2024 11:47 pm

This is one of those questions/OPs where I really wish it was more precise as to WHAT you want answered.

If asking who had the biggest defensive impact per minute at peak, I think that’s Caruso.

But if we’re talking defensive impact per game, it gets muddy. Because Caruso has never averaged 29 mpg in any season, Smart has never averaged 33, while Jrue has a CAREER average >33 (peaking >37) [and while carrying more offensive load than either of the other two, fwiw].

Makes the question tough. Per game, I might go Jrue. Close though.

brackdan70 · Post #5 » by **brackdan70** » Mon Oct 7, 2024 7:21 pm

As others have pointed out all the numbers point to Caruso.
Watching Jrue last year it’s hard to bet against him though. Just solid all the time even now. I love Smart but I think he gets a bit overrated defensively. He is really good and has his moments and won a DPOY, but I think he is behind the other two.
I guess the answer to the question is Caruso, but I think Jrues ability to guard 1-4 is something to consider as well.

oaktownwarriors87 · Post #6 » by **oaktownwarriors87** » Mon Oct 7, 2024 8:12 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:Caruso easily

Top 5 Defenders in 28 Year D-RAPM
1.Kevin Garnett -6.4
2.Dikembe Mutombo -5.6
3. Draymond Green -5.3
4. Rudy Gobert -5.3
5. *Alex Caruso* -5.3

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WMfP-GVHXCjPfp2sMnBjWB301OtO3LO7n-EKoBSl-iQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Caruso has started just over 1/3 of his games while Holiday has started almost every single one. It's much harder to bring impact to the starting unit when teams have a bigger game plan for you as well.

Caruso only has one 2,000 minutes season under his belt. 1,575 and 1,216 are his next biggest seasons. Holiday has 13 more seasons playing more minutes than that.

I know this is about peak, but it's hard to compare peaks when you're coming off the bench and paying more limited minutes and what is supposed to be a high energy role.

Caruso hasn't even been able to put together a full season as a starter. He shouldn't even be a part of the discussion. He's a 6th man playing heavy minutes against bench players.

JimmyFromNz · Post #7 » by **JimmyFromNz** » Tue Oct 8, 2024 12:56 am

I was going to shout about Caruso's minutes and the impact statistics - which I do think are highly favourable and potentially skew this comparison. But then again, someone like Tony Allen never played more than 26mpg his entire defensive prime, so it's hard to be watertight with that logic when the reality is many of the best perimeter defenders ever were only that effective in those limited minute allowances (with of course offensive limitations as a contributing factor).

That makes what Jrue did at his peak far more impressive to me, when accounting for the primary/secondary playmaker role and extended minutes. Specifically, I think he was easily the most intelligent defender of the three, and his versatility either at point of attack, on the wing or flaring down into the paint are more valuable than the higher aggression on-ball style of Caruso & Smart.

Marcus Smart is a contrast, as someone whose defensive focus suffered when asked to carry more load on the other end. I consider his defensive peak around 2017-2020 before he was asked to manage more once the Celtics point guards dissipated one by one (IT, Irving, Walker). What separates him from Caruso was his strength and understanding of positional angles. He could legitimately guard 1-4, and we also saw fleeting moments of holding his own against centres that could undermine an offensive mismatch. Largely because of his deep centre of gravity and ability to cut off the angle with his positioning. I'd encourage anyone to watch him in his battles against prime James Harden. He didn't win them all but I think it perfectly encapsulates his strengths against one of the craftier offensive players ever. Sure Marcus got a DPOY that favoured recognition over the in-season production, but it seems that's held against his reputation now and is neither here nor there when this is a conversation about peaks.

You can't go wrong with Caruso, he's an amazing point of attack and roaming defender.I have considered the RAPM data (5 year DRAPM - 6.2 peak Caruso, 2.7 peak Smart). That huge gap doesn't do much to dismiss my suspicions the RAPM outputs provide us little that is consistent or meaningful. For some that's sacrilegious, particularly those who want to take a number at face value, but to me that just shows we have a long way to go before having reliable data that accurately reflects defensive impact/aptitude in a way that can be isolated and compared player - player.

1. Jrue
2a/2b. Smart - Caruso

Post #8 » by **165bows** » Tue Oct 8, 2024 1:09 am

brackdan70 wrote:As others have pointed out all the numbers point to Caruso.
Watching Jrue last year it’s hard to bet against him though. Just solid all the time even now. I love Smart but I think he gets a bit overrated defensively. He is really good and has his moments and won a DPOY, but I think he is behind the other two.
I guess the answer to the question is Caruso, but I think Jrues ability to guard 1-4 is something to consider as well.

Pains me to say but in retrospect the first half of Smart’s career he was much better on D than his more recent second half.

Jaqua92 · Post #9 » by **Jaqua92** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 11:43 pm

I get why some folks are picking Caruso based on the numbers, but this is a good example of why stats shouldn’t always be taken at face value.

Jrue has made countless game-winning and series changing defensive plays. Ask people around the league, and most will tell you he’s the best defender out there on the perimeter.

Stats provide context, but if they suggest Caruso is a better defender than Jrue, something's getting lost in translation.

Come on, guys, really?

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