Bucks/NBA Prediction Thread - Locks at 6:00 p.m.

[BigO]

I'm back, with thoughts you can take to the bank:

1) Bucks win championship, if healthy. They aren't balanced like Celtics, but they have the best player.

2) The Bucks young guys are brutal, but it is tough to judge them fairly if they only play with each other. A guy like Green should only be judged when he is playing with good players. He has an elite skill that is shown off when he is playing with better players.

3) I said it during summer league and it's even clearer now. AJ Johnson is not good. His handle is suspect, he can't shoot and has no idea what to do.

4) Picking Johnson before Ryan Dunn may be a firing worthy offense against Horst.

5) I see the anti Portis crowd still rears its ugly head every time he misses a shot. Recent posts calling him unplayable or saying he should be traded for Gabe Vincent are worthy of a real GM suspension.

Agree with most of this, with some minor debates.

Are the Celts that balanced? Their wing/guard rotation is the best in the NBA, but I have the same questions about their bigs. Surprised they didn't look to upgrade their back ups to Horford/Porzingas.

Agree with Green, however I'm not sure about AJJ being useless/not picking Dunn be a fireable offense. We picked Andre last year as the 'right' player and that hasn't translated. I can definitely understand why Horst swung at potential in this draft. Hopefully AJJ develops his shot, there's definitely flashes. It will also be interesting to see him in a situation where he doesn't have the green light to jack up everything.

Portis. Love the guy. We clearly need a mobile stretch big who can defend. I would definitely trade some of his offense for a defensive upgrade, but I don't think that player exists. So I'm 100% on board rolling with Bobby.

Out of the three AJ's:

1) Green- I'd give him regular minutes now and see if he can play. They need his outside presence and his defense looks ok to me

2) Andre Jackson- I had no problem with his being drafted, but they have played him out of position the entire time he's been here, including on the Herd. He was a starting point guard on an NCAA champion, yet they never let him handle the ball. That's where his strength lies, along with potential for good defense.

3) AJ Johnson-unlike the other two, I don't see this high potential others see. I see a kid who has no elite or potential elite skill, other than speed. His dribbling is suspect, his shot is bad and I don't see terrific court vision.

Agree with everything you said on BP. Find me a guy who can rebound like BP and shoot from the outside AND is a great defender and I'll say didn't Maurice Lucas pass away.

[Gant]

I'm back, with thoughts you can take to the bank:

1) Bucks win championship, if healthy. They aren't balanced like Celtics, but they have the best player.

2) The Bucks young guys are brutal, but it is tough to judge them fairly if they only play with each other. A guy like Green should only be judged when he is playing with good players. He has an elite skill that is shown off when he is playing with better players.

3) I said it during summer league and it's even clearer now. AJ Johnson is not good. His handle is suspect, he can't shoot and has no idea what to do.

4) Picking Johnson before Ryan Dunn may be a firing worthy offense against Horst.

5) I see the anti Portis crowd still rears its ugly head every time he misses a shot. Recent posts calling him unplayable or saying he should be traded for Gabe Vincent are worthy of a real GM suspension.

Agree with most of this, with some minor debates.

Are the Celts that balanced? Their wing/guard rotation is the best in the NBA, but I have the same questions about their bigs. Surprised they didn't look to upgrade their back ups to Horford/Porzingas.

Agree with Green, however I'm not sure about AJJ being useless/not picking Dunn be a fireable offense. We picked Andre last year as the 'right' player and that hasn't translated. I can definitely understand why Horst swung at potential in this draft. Hopefully AJJ develops his shot, there's definitely flashes. It will also be interesting to see him in a situation where he doesn't have the green light to jack up everything.

Portis. Love the guy. We clearly need a mobile stretch big who can defend. I would definitely trade some of his offense for a defensive upgrade, but I don't think that player exists. So I'm 100% on board rolling with Bobby.

Horford will rest a lot and probably play shortened minutes, so as you point out this is a big deal until Porzingis returns.

Time will tell, but the Celtics look surprisingly solid at back up center, going 5 deep with the varied skills and shortcomings of Kornet, Tillman and Queta. All three have improved.

Kornet and Queta had excellent advanced stats last season, and were at or near the top of the team in several categories (PER, rebounding %, net rating, etc.). What those two don't do is shoot threes, taking away the 5 long ball shooters on the floor at the same time thing. Tillman's three looks really good now.

fwiw- In the preseason, the Celtics did fine with all these players. Boston's only poor showing at center was Horford's lone exhibition appearance against the Raptors as he is gently ramping up into form.

A couple of hints that Mazzulla likes these guys:
* It's still not clear whether Horford will even start every game he's available. Kornet might start some, cutting Horford's minutes.
* The Celtics played a lot of double big in the preseason with the shorter Tillman at PF. They did it every game, which means they're really trying to find a way to get all three of these centers on the floor.


Tillman played with a knee problem all last season. Kornet was hampered by injuries through the playoffs. Both had offseason medical procedures and are now healthy.

As a second apron team it's lucky they're happy with what they have at the position, because due to the trade restrictions, upgrading would be very difficult.

[msiris]

Some people wonder why some of us are not as high on the Bucks as others. Well the end of last year Doc had a losing record while the big 3 played.

[dbrodz7]

Some people wonder why some of us are not as high on the Bucks as others. Well the end of last year Doc had a losing record while the big 3 played.

"In all, the three have played a total of six full games together since Rivers took over the team on Jan. 29." Cool sample size bro.

[msiris]

Some people wonder why some of us are not as high on the Bucks as others. Well the end of last year Doc had a losing record while the big 3 played.

"In all, the three have played a total of six full games together since Rivers took over the team on Jan. 29." Cool sample size bro.

We are not getting threw the season without injuries. You can count on that.

[MickeyDavis]

Some people wonder why some of us are not as high on the Bucks as others. Well the end of last year Doc had a losing record while the big 3 played.

"In all, the three have played a total of six full games together since Rivers took over the team on Jan. 29." Cool sample size bro.

We are not getting threw the season without injuries. You can count on that.

True but it's likely Rivers has those 3 for more than 6 games.

[GoldenAntlers]

63-19, Championship.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using RealGM mobile app

[ReasonablySober]

I'm just here so I can edit this post at a later date.

[Jez2983]

I'm just here so I can edit this post at a later date.

Wow man, I can't believe you predicted this.

[Fotis St]

42/40 ... we struggle cause our core is old and injuries will occur. Giannis gets hurt too.
play in tournament , 2nd round exit.

[bdpecore]

Bucks finish the season at 56-26 and are the 2nd seed in the East behind Boston.

If the big 3 are healthy come mid-April, their floor is the ECF and their ceiling is NBA Champions. I think I'll split the difference and predict they make the finals but lose to the Minnesota Timberwolves as we won't have a defensive answer for Antman and feel the KAT trade will help them more than the Knicks.

[bdpecore]

I'm back, with thoughts you can take to the bank:

1) Bucks win championship, if healthy. They aren't balanced like Celtics, but they have the best player.

2) The Bucks young guys are brutal, but it is tough to judge them fairly if they only play with each other. A guy like Green should only be judged when he is playing with good players. He has an elite skill that is shown off when he is playing with better players.

3) I said it during summer league and it's even clearer now. AJ Johnson is not good. His handle is suspect, he can't shoot and has no idea what to do.

4) Picking Johnson before Ryan Dunn may be a firing worthy offense against Horst.

5) I see the anti Portis crowd still rears its ugly head every time he misses a shot. Recent posts calling him unplayable or saying he should be traded for Gabe Vincent are worthy of a real GM suspension.

Agree with most of this, with some minor debates.

Are the Celts that balanced? Their wing/guard rotation is the best in the NBA, but I have the same questions about their bigs. Surprised they didn't look to upgrade their back ups to Horford/Porzingas.

Agree with Green, however I'm not sure about AJJ being useless/not picking Dunn be a fireable offense. We picked Andre last year as the 'right' player and that hasn't translated. I can definitely understand why Horst swung at potential in this draft. Hopefully AJJ develops his shot, there's definitely flashes. It will also be interesting to see him in a situation where he doesn't have the green light to jack up everything.

Portis. Love the guy. We clearly need a mobile stretch big who can defend. I would definitely trade some of his offense for a defensive upgrade, but I don't think that player exists. So I'm 100% on board rolling with Bobby.

Horford will rest a lot and probably play shortened minutes, so as you point out this is a big deal until Porzingis returns.

Time will tell, but the Celtics look surprisingly solid at back up center, going 5 deep with the varied skills and shortcomings of Kornet, Tillman and Queta. All three have improved.

Kornet and Queta had excellent advanced stats last season, and were at or near the top of the team in several categories (PER, rebounding %, net rating, etc.). What those two don't do is shoot threes, taking away the 5 long ball shooters on the floor at the same time thing. Tillman's three looks really good now.

fwiw- In the preseason, the Celtics did fine with all these players. Boston's only poor showing at center was Horford's lone exhibition appearance against the Raptors as he is gently ramping up into form.

A couple of hints that Mazzulla likes these guys:
* It's still not clear whether Horford will even start every game he's available. Kornet might start some, cutting Horford's minutes.
* The Celtics played a lot of double big in the preseason with the shorter Tillman at PF. They did it every game, which means they're really trying to find a way to get all three of these centers on the floor.


Tillman played with a knee problem all last season. Kornet was hampered by injuries through the playoffs. Both had offseason medical procedures and are now healthy.

As a second apron team it's lucky they're happy with what they have at the position, because due to the trade restrictions, upgrading would be very difficult.

Come next offseason, Boston is going to be in a really tough spot trying to fill out their roster as they'll have $217 million tied up in eight players (Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, White, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheiermann). They have most of their future 1sts but aren't going to find starting caliber players when picking in the 25-30 range. This doesn't bode well for Brad Stevens going forward.

[Gant]

Agree with most of this, with some minor debates.

Are the Celts that balanced? Their wing/guard rotation is the best in the NBA, but I have the same questions about their bigs. Surprised they didn't look to upgrade their back ups to Horford/Porzingas.

Agree with Green, however I'm not sure about AJJ being useless/not picking Dunn be a fireable offense. We picked Andre last year as the 'right' player and that hasn't translated. I can definitely understand why Horst swung at potential in this draft. Hopefully AJJ develops his shot, there's definitely flashes. It will also be interesting to see him in a situation where he doesn't have the green light to jack up everything.

Portis. Love the guy. We clearly need a mobile stretch big who can defend. I would definitely trade some of his offense for a defensive upgrade, but I don't think that player exists. So I'm 100% on board rolling with Bobby.

Horford will rest a lot and probably play shortened minutes, so as you point out this is a big deal until Porzingis returns.

Time will tell, but the Celtics look surprisingly solid at back up center, going 5 deep with the varied skills and shortcomings of Kornet, Tillman and Queta. All three have improved.

Kornet and Queta had excellent advanced stats last season, and were at or near the top of the team in several categories (PER, rebounding %, net rating, etc.). What those two don't do is shoot threes, taking away the 5 long ball shooters on the floor at the same time thing. Tillman's three looks really good now.

fwiw- In the preseason, the Celtics did fine with all these players. Boston's only poor showing at center was Horford's lone exhibition appearance against the Raptors as he is gently ramping up into form.

A couple of hints that Mazzulla likes these guys:
* It's still not clear whether Horford will even start every game he's available. Kornet might start some, cutting Horford's minutes.
* The Celtics played a lot of double big in the preseason with the shorter Tillman at PF. They did it every game, which means they're really trying to find a way to get all three of these centers on the floor.


Tillman played with a knee problem all last season. Kornet was hampered by injuries through the playoffs. Both had offseason medical procedures and are now healthy.

As a second apron team it's lucky they're happy with what they have at the position, because due to the trade restrictions, upgrading would be very difficult.

Come next offseason, Boston is going to be in a really tough spot trying to fill out their roster as they'll have $217 million tied up in eight players (Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, White, Hauser, Pritchard, Scheiermann). They have most of their future 1sts but aren't going to find starting caliber players when picking in the 25-30 range. This doesn't bode well for Brad Stevens going forward.

You're right, they do have a massive math problem coming up.

The second apron poses two big issues: 1) The taxes are mega expensive. 2) It's really hard to improve as both trades and free agency become limited. Plus draft picks are penalized.
We saw the second part break down the Clippers, who have the richest owner in the league and could have easily afforded the taxes. But there was no way for them to get better.

The Celtics are in an unusual situation since they have peak talent. So for them the money is the immediate problem. If they do keep winning (that's an "if") and don't care about losing money, they could theoretically pay the insane tax.

That's all muddied by the franchise being for sale. No one knows who will emerge as the new owner. If it's a paltry run of the mill billionaire, money will be an issue. But if someone galactically wealthy like Jeff Bezos buys the team and doesn't care about short-term profit/loss for this winning window, there's no amount of tax that would be meaningful. The new owner should be known in not too long.

The likeliest case is as you alluded to, moving some core player(s). That's what this CBA is designed to do. I have no speculation what will really happen. Its all too complicated and hurts my brain to think beyond this season.


As far as getting new young talent, their current pipeline is pretty good. They have a few promising guys on the extended roster who might develop into something and contribute at a low price. They did nicely fill out the roster this year by getting all of their own bench players to return.

[Ron Swanson]

Still surprised to see so much of the conversation about Boston waltzing to ~60 wins despite the fact that KP won't be on the court until like what, January? February? They'll be relying on an ancient Al Horford more than we'll be relying on an ancient Brook. Another over-looked storyline of course, being that their starting back court is older (30 and 34) than any other serious contender. If I were a gambling man, I'd be pounding the under on that 58.5 wins mark.

[LedZepp007]

5-2. NBA Champs


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[ReddoverKobe]

I think they team is really going to show its age this year. MIddleton is already out and I'm expecting a slow start with the schedule they have, something like 3-7.

Bucks win 46-50 games, end up a 4-5 seed and out in round 2. Big changes in the offseason with Midds and lopez gone

[BUCKnation]

Still surprised to see so much of the conversation about Boston waltzing to ~60 wins despite the fact that KP won't be on the court until like what, January? February? They'll be relying on an ancient Al Horford more than we'll be relying on an ancient Brook. Another over-looked storyline of course, being that their starting back court is older (30 and 34) than any other serious contender. If I were a gambling man, I'd be pounding the under on that 58.5 wins mark.

Yeah, I think they are a pretty easy under, that said, that under is more like 56 wins rather than 59.

[Bucks_the_trend]

The Larry O'Brien trophy comes back to Milwaukee where it belongs.

[bdpecore]

Still surprised to see so much of the conversation about Boston waltzing to ~60 wins despite the fact that KP won't be on the court until like what, January? February? They'll be relying on an ancient Al Horford more than we'll be relying on an ancient Brook. Another over-looked storyline of course, being that their starting back court is older (30 and 34) than any other serious contender. If I were a gambling man, I'd be pounding the under on that 58.5 wins mark.

How dare you not mention Luke Kornet as a viable candidate to fill Porzingis' role. I'm almost positive they were made from the same mold.

[SupremeHustle]

I'm just here so I can edit this post at a later date.

This guy stole my bit. Then again, you've all been stealing my bits for decades. Pay me.