OT: Official MMA discussion thread pt 3 UFC 319: DDP vs Chimaev, Aaron Pico vs Lerone Murphy

[Guano]

LFG!

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Whole card is stacked. Shavkhat finally gets his title-shot. Kai Asakura debuts with a title-shot against Pantoja (guaranteed fireworks). Then Gane and Volkov get to showcase that HW striking can actually be good.

This weekend has a pretty good UFC card too...but it's PFL's weekend. Francis Ngannou makes his PFL debut and Cris Cyborg fights the woman who beat Kayla Harrison's ass (Larissa Pacheco). They also put Fabian Edwards vs undefeated Johnny Eblen and AJ Mckee vs Paul Hughes on this card. It's as good as PFL can put on, though I don't think they've done great promoting it.

I look forward to hearing your break down of belal vs shav. I'm pretty sure you're rolling with shav. But it will be interesting to read. I think shav wins. But I don't think it will be a walk. Belal is tough as hell. I just think shav is a generational elite fighter.

[HarthorneWingo]

Third Thread is overdue. 200 pages of MMA discussion fam, we been at this for a hot minute! Anyway the latest MMA news is interesting and I've got some thoughts and additional info for some of this.

Jorge out against Leon Edwards with an undisclosed injury. Khamzat has thrown his name in the ring. The fight is scheduled for next month. Edwards, however, wants to fight Usman next.

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I dont think anyone in the top 5 want that Khazmat fight

I think Magney/Thompson/Chiesa get fed to him first, Usman V Leon, Luque Another top contender right now

It’s a fake injury to get a Colby vs Jorge fight to happen crazy thing is an mma guy on YouTube called that this would happen right after Colby lost to CEO of EPO

I'm thinking Usman vs Leon makes the most sense for everyone too. I hadn't heard the Colby vs Jorge thing, but it does remind me that someone was just discussing those two as TUF coaches. I'd have to think they'd be more entertaining than Volk and Ortega were. So that adds up too.

Khamzat is in an interesting spot. He hasn't earned top-5 contenders yet, there's not enough in it for those guys to take that fight. So I agree that it's gotta be someone in that 5-10 range. Two in that range just booked to fight each other, Wonderboy vs Belal Muhammad is official. That leaves Magny and Chiesa...Magny has actually expressed interest in taking it. So I could picture that being next up.

The guys left floating then are Luque who ought to be next in line for a title shot after Edwards (and has a case to go ahead of him off recent activity). Michael Chiesa who lost to Luque. And Geoff Neal, who always has potential but can't seem to put it all together.

Khabib (or Ali) throwing shade at Gatgjhe on instagram..this could get interesting..

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I saw Khabib talking about streaks and losses, but I feel like he's making the same mistake here as he did trashing Aldo. He's not accounting for strength of competition. That's why I don't rate Khabib's win-streak and dominance as GOAT-level...I don't think his competition stacks up with some others. The same goes for Islam and Gaethje. Islam's best opponent is Dan Hooker on short notice...I rate 7 of Gaethje's UFC opponents above Dan Hooker.

Gaethje vs the winner of Poirier/Oliveira is the fight to make...and Beneil Dariush vs Islam Makhachev is what the fight fans deserve, give us that grappling goodness. I want to see those scrambles!

Why does this post keep showing up in my notifications? This happens every couple of weeks. Just this post.

[j4remi]

Why does this post keep showing up in my notifications? This happens every couple of weeks. Just this post.

Prolly when I edit the thread title to reflect the big weekly events.

[HarthorneWingo]

PFL Battle of the Giants is on now (ESPN+). Ngannou vs Ferreira!

[MrDollarBills]

PFL Battle of the Giants is on now (ESPN+). Ngannou vs Ferreira!

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So I'm assuming that Ferreira is dead now.

[j4remi]

The fact that we may never get any match-ups between Ngannou-Jones-Aspinall is a damned travesty and indictment of the UFC's cheapness. Ferreira would be a top-7 HW in the UFC at worst, and I could see him getting into the top 5. Ngannou flattened him.

It was also great to see Cyborg take out Pacheco. The UFC is gonna try to sell Kayla Harrison as a juggernaut, but Pacheco beat her fairly handely. The UFC couldn't figure out how to promote Cyborg, one of the top 2 WMMA fighters of all time. That's another misstep by them.

AJ Mckee cost me money. Dude's been disappointing since the Pitbull fight.

[HarthorneWingo]

This fight was very entertaining. Not much defense going on. More like kickboxing rock ‘em, sock ‘em robots.

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This is also a very entertaining fight but is labeled as “muy thai”. What’s the difference between that and kickboxing

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[j4remi]

This fight was very entertaining. Not much defense going on. More like kickboxing rock ‘em, sock ‘em robots.

Watch on YouTube

This is also a very entertaining fight but is labeled as “muy thai”. What’s the difference between that and kickboxing

Watch on YouTube

That's a good question about kickboxing vs muay Thai. The answer is that the rules are different in ways that really impact the approaches of the fighters.

In Kickboxing, knees and elbows are illegal. Clinches are only allowed for a very small amount of time and you're not allowed to throw your opponent. So fighters are more bouncy, there's less risk in shooting across a gap to strike, and the in-fighting is way different because they have less options.

Muay Thai allows the knees and elbows, plus you can clinch a dude and punish him with knees, throws, and elbows. I prefer Muay Thai.

[Guano]

The fact that we may never get any match-ups between Ngannou-Jones-Aspinall is a damned travesty and indictment of the UFC's cheapness. Ferreira would be a top-7 HW in the UFC at worst, and I could see him getting into the top 5. Ngannou flattened him.

It was also great to see Cyborg take out Pacheco. The UFC is gonna try to sell Kayla Harrison as a juggernaut, but Pacheco beat her fairly handely. The UFC couldn't figure out how to promote Cyborg, one of the top 2 WMMA fighters of all time. That's another misstep by them.

AJ Mckee cost me money. Dude's been disappointing since the Pitbull fight.

the ufc inability to market talent is outstanding.

they've wasted a lot of great fighters. they're more interested in promoting the ufc than actual fighters and as a result mma is hurt.

[j4remi]

the ufc inability to market talent is outstanding.

they've wasted a lot of great fighters. they're more interested in promoting the ufc than actual fighters and as a result mma is hurt.

And when they hitch their wagon to fighters, it's based on marketability rather than pure talent. They still haven't figured out how to promote 125 when it's got fast-paced fights and held one of the GOATs for one of the best title runs in UFC history.

They have Tom Aspinall on a tear, but are too scared that hyping him will take away from their "superfight" between Jones and Stipe.

Then they've got the incentives all messed up. The pay scale shifts so dramatically that getting ranked is too valuable to risk losing. Going from 9th to 10th is also painful for your payouts, and 4th to 5th...if you have a title, the difference is MASSIVE compared to being a challenger. So everyone's ducking everyone, and an up-and-coming star is more likely to be ducked than get any major opportunities.

That's also why every champ would rather challenge a champ in another division than defend their own belt. The risk-reward systems in the UFC are structured for entertainment, not SPORT. So, it's becoming more and more of a product rather than a sport.

[Guano]

the ufc inability to market talent is outstanding.

they've wasted a lot of great fighters. they're more interested in promoting the ufc than actual fighters and as a result mma is hurt.

And when they hitch their wagon to fighters, it's based on marketability rather than pure talent. They still haven't figured out how to promote 125 when it's got fast-paced fights and held one of the GOATs for one of the best title runs in UFC history.

They have Tom Aspinall on a tear, but are too scared that hyping him will take away from their "superfight" between Jones and Stipe.

Then they've got the incentives all messed up. The pay scale shifts so dramatically that getting ranked is too valuable to risk losing. Going from 9th to 10th is also painful for your payouts, and 4th to 5th...if you have a title, the difference is MASSIVE compared to being a challenger. So everyone's ducking everyone, and an up-and-coming star is more likely to be ducked than get any major opportunities.

That's also why every champ would rather challenge a champ in another division than defend their own belt. The risk-reward systems in the UFC are structured for entertainment, not SPORT. So, it's becoming more and more of a product rather than a sport.

i was under the assumption that payouts only changed for champions. had no idea that these bullsht rankings affected fighters pay. the fight game is so brutal. the window for making money is small the pay is minimal and the damage is lasting.

what they're doing with aspinall is ridiculous. i don't know anyone who is interested in that stipe vs jones fight. its a farce. they act like they're bellator, putting on shows, more than a respected mma promotion. doing the whole cm punk thing. also trading mm was embarrassing. he is one of the greatest fighters of all time and they never promoted him. wouldn't be surprised if it had something to do with dana not getting along with matt hume. i get that they're in the money making business but its such a great sport and they seem to consistently get in the way of the product.

like you mentioned we are getting denied great fights. ngannou not fighting jones or aspinall is a tragedy.

[j4remi]

It's a Max Holloway fight week folks! Not only that...we're actually getting a Khamzat fight, vs Robert Whitaker no less!

[j4remi]

We've got a crazy good card this weekend folks, and it takes place in the UAE which means prelims at 10 AM (EST) and a main card kicking off around 2 PM. Even the prelims have some real talent, so let's not waste space and get into match-ups.

The big ones:
Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway:

Spoiler:

My favorite fighter, Max Holloway, is getting a chance to regain his Featherweight title but it comes against Ilia Topuria, who might be the most well-rounded champion in the entire UFC right now. My boxing friends are at a consensus that Topuria is the best boxer in the UFC right now, and that his padwork is head and shoulders above everyone else. But Ilia's wrestling might be just as good.

Blessed represents a unique test for Ilia though, because Max is around 5 inches taller than Topuria. Ilia likes to ovewhelm opponents with long combinations, and elite ring cutting. Max likes to force opponents to swing across distance and moves laterally as well as anyone at FW.

So it's the ring cutter vs the best side-to-side movement. It's the best volume puncher vs the best power combination puncher. Ilia does this really cool thing where he'll throw a 2 or 3 punch combo, delay for a second, and then continue the combination with 2 or three power punches. That's how he got Volkanovski, and many others. But Ilia's in-step to throw all that power seems ripe for the intercepting knees and kicks that Max enjoys to use on aggressive opponents.

So I actually think Max is built to look good on the feet. It's the wrestling that concerns me. Ilia's wrestling can get him into position to throw his combos or steal close rounds. Max will have to fight a perfect fight to win. So the edge is with Ilia, but I ALWAYS pick Max to win. So, I'll risk being wrong and ride with my favorite fighter.

Robert Whitaker vs Khamzat Chimaev:

Spoiler:

I've written about this fight before, but Chimaev fell violently ill and had to pull out. The tale of the tape feels fairly straight-forward. Chimaev has a big threatening edge for the first half of this fight. But if Whitaker can survive the short-term, I think he can capitalize and do damage in the second-half of this fight.

Watch out for Chimaev by submission early. But I wouldn't bet on him. He's fresh off an illness that had him briefly hospitalized, and has always had cardio issues. Whitaker is a vet, who SHOULD have the discipline to survive until Chimaev tires out...but Whitaker has been prone to dumb mistakes in big spots (ie: Rushing into both Adesanya and Duplessis and getting stopped by both).

The rest of the main card is fire:
Magomed Ankalaev vs Aleksander Rakic:

Spoiler:

Rakic is probably the best LHW wrestler, which makes him the scariest match-up for Alex Pereira. But he's not fighting Alex, and he's coming off an ugly KO loss. Ankalaev has great grappling, and very nice striking, but lacks a sense of urgency to finish fights.

So, this is a fight where the winner SHOULD get the next title shot. But it could turn into a grinding, boring affair that gives Dana White an excuse to shield Alex from the two best grapplers and biggest threats at LHW. Either way, I'm leaning toward Ankalaev since Rakic has a questionable chin. But it's a lean and not a confident pick.

Lerone Murphy vs Dan Ige:

Spoiler:

Here's a sleeper for FOTN. Lerone Murphy is an undefeated buzzsaw of a striker, who just outlasted Edson Barboza for five rounds. Dan Ige gave Diego Lopes hell for three rounds, in spite of Ige taking the fight on an hour's notice after Brian Ortega had a last-minute medical issue.

Ige is as tough as anyone at 145, has fought all the best guys, and has never been finished. Murphy is just starting to fight the elite competition, so he's green. But Murphy is a contender-prospect, and he's supposed to win this fight. Smart money is on Murphy by decision, MY money is greedy and dumb though. Ige at more than 2 to 1 odds is worth a bit of the bankroll I've built up.

Shara Bullet vs Armen Petrosyan:

Spoiler:

Sharaputdin Magomedov is a great prospect, but awful human being. I'll always mention that. Armen Petrosyan is a very good striker with awful takedown defense. That sets this up to be a funny fight, in that Shara is known for his striking but would have an easier time wrestling Petrosyan.

Magomedov's gas tank is mid, and Armen's tough to beat standing. So this could be a highly entertaining fight...or, more likely, Shara edges the striking early then mixes in takedowns and stalls for a decision or submission victory.

The prelims have some bangers:
Raffael Cerqueira vs Ibo Aslan:

Spoiler:

Talk about great prospects! These guys got the prelim headline over Geoff Neal vs RDA! Raffael is undefeated with 10 finishes in his 11 wins. Ibo has 13 wins, all by KO, and one submission loss from his lower-league days (though shout out to Brave FC, which is a quality roster). I don't have a ton to say about these guys because one's new, and one guy I've seen fight twice.

But Ibo can CRACK! If I have any takes, it's that Ibo's KO power has lived up to its hype so far.

Geoff Neal vs Rafael Dos Anjos:

Spoiler:

A former champ vs a 170 lbs prospect that everyone expected to contend. RDA's best years are past him, but he's still good enough to compete with any ranked opponent. Neal has lost 4 of his last 6, but to a who's who of great Welterweight talents (Magny, Wonderboy, Garry, Shavkhat).

It's tough to envision RDA being able to take Neal down because of the size and strength difference. I think this was booked to restore some of Neal's hype at RDA's expense. But I've picked against Dos Anjos and been punished for it a bunch of times. RDA is crafty, so I'm picking Neal but not betting anything on this!

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Carlos Leal:

Spoiler:

This match-up is weird but Fakhretdinov has to be mentioned. He's a really tough fighter who has beaten Kevin Lee, Bryan Battle, and Nicolas Dalby (though the Dalby fighted with comedically sloppy striking). Leal is new to the UFC, which is strange since he's fighting a very seasoned and talented opponent for his debut.

But Leal is also a former LFA champion, and the LFA is a really strong league to develop in. So I suspect this fight will be good. I pick Rinat because I KNOW he's gifted. But this is a fight I'm looking forward to.

Other prelim names to watch:

Spoiler:

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Chris Barnett:
This fight features a 6'4 natural 205'er against 5'8 HW that struggles to make 265 but also does backflips. Barnett knocks guys out or gasses. Nzechukwu has bad defense but obvious physical advantages. So, this should be a spectacle.

Bruno Silva vs Ismail Naurdiev:
I had really high hopes for Silva, since he's a former M1 champion. But he's lost 5 of his last 6, though they're all losses to high caliber competition and one loss included about five eyepokes by Chris Weidman. Naurdiev is returning to the UFC after a bad run in his first opportunity. I lean toward Silva finally getting on track, but Naurdiev may have grown since I last watched him closely.

Abus Magomedov vs Bruno Ferreira:
Bruno's a VERY good prospect, hence his nickname The Hulk. He's 12-1, none of the fights have gone to decision. Abusupiyan is super experienced and has beaten Warlley Alves plus taken Caio Borralho to a competitive decision Loss. This will be a good fight, I lean toward Bruno.

[Ghetto Gospel]

It's a Max Holloway fight week folks! Not only that...we're actually getting a Khamzat fight, vs Robert Whitaker no less!

i'll believe it when i see it! 2 more days

[j4remi]

It's a Max Holloway fight week folks! Not only that...we're actually getting a Khamzat fight, vs Robert Whitaker no less!

i'll believe it when i see it! 2 more days

Honestly, he didn't look so hot at the last press conference, but I'm nervous that I'm primed to look for bad signs.

[Ghetto Gospel]

there's a universe where khamzhat can be triple champion right? like it's still possible he can make 170 again..?

[j4remi]

there's a universe where khamzhat can be triple champion right? like it's still possible he can make 170 again..?

I don't think he can make that weight again. His health issues even while cutting to 185 last time make me concerned for it. I'd prefer if he went up to 205, because his wrestling seems ready-made for Alex Pereira.

Shavkhat would beat a weight-depleted Khamzat imo.

[HarthorneWingo]

It's a Max Holloway fight week folks! Not only that...we're actually getting a Khamzat fight, vs Robert Whitaker no less!

i'll believe it when i see it! 2 more days

Honestly, he didn't look so hot at the last press conference, but I'm nervous that I'm primed to look for bad signs.

He didn’t look so good? How does he look now?

Khamzat rag-dolled Knuckles and then smashed his jaw during the RNC submission IN THE FIRST ROUND! Wow!

[Guano]

Awesome fights that left me sad

[j4remi]

i'll believe it when i see it! 2 more days

Honestly, he didn't look so hot at the last press conference, but I'm nervous that I'm primed to look for bad signs.

He didn’t look so good? How does he look now?

Khamzat rag-dolled Knuckles and then smashed his jaw during the RNC submission IN THE FIRST ROUND! Wow!

He didn't show anything to inspire my confidence that he doesn't desperately need to finish fights early

I don't think he beats Dricus with the Carla Esparza special...I'm not sure he beats Bo Nickal wrestling like that either, though he'd hopefully be good enough to outstrike Bo.