I’ve been saying for years the SGA trade was historically bad. It’s about to become the GOAT

[Slimjimzv]

Some weird takes on this thread. But the one I'll point out is that ALL trades have to be evaluated via hindsight. When the trade happens, you don't know if it was a good trade because you don't know the results. Once you know the results, you can evaluate whether it was a good trade. How else would it work? Teams can make a bad trade, even if they made the best decision they could with the information available to them at the time.

That isn't how the valuation of trade works though. Just because a pick you traded PRE-DRAFT turned out to be a great player, doesn't mean that pick is worth who that player eventually became. Each pick has its own value regardless of who it turns out to be because the draft is basically a lottery.

Suppose in the 2015 draft, pre-draft Cleveland trades the #1 pick for a second round pick, straight up. That's a bad trade right? But suppose instead of picking Andrew Wiggins #1, they used that second round pick to pick Jokic. Is that trade now a good one?

Or suppose I trade a Porsche 911 for $6. I then use that $6 to buy a lottery ticket, and the lottery ticket wins 5 million. Was the Porsche 911 trade a good one now that it turned out to be 5 million dollars? I don't agree with that. Those are two separate transactions.

Agree to disagree

[clippertown]

Nobody knew how good SGA would become back then

It sure seems like Presti did.

Presti was no more aware than any other GM. He knew that SGA would be solid but he assumed that SGA would not be a superstar which is why he demanded so much additional draft compensation. Presti knew that PG was worth much more than SGA.

Keep in mind that the Hornets drafted SGA, not the Clippers. They swapped SGA for Miles Bridges and a couple of 2nds so that the Clippers could have him. Clearly, they valued Bridges more than SGA. If the Clippers kept Bridges, he would be in OKC right now.

[Sixers in 4]

Nobody knew how good SGA would become back then

It sure seems like Presti did.

Presti was no more aware than any other GM. He knew that SGA would be solid but he assumed that SGA would not be a superstar which is why he demanded so much additional draft compensation. Presti knew that PG was worth much more than SGA.

Keep in mind that the Hornets drafted SGA, not the Clippers. They swapped SGA for Miles Bridges and a couple of 2nds so that the Clippers could have him. Clearly, they valued Bridges more than SGA. If the Clippers kept Bridges, he would be in OKC right now.

"I even brought it up to Kawhi (Leonard): 'Are you sure?'" Rivers said. "'I think Shai's going to be an amazing player. It may take a year or two, but I think you're underestimating how good Shai's going to be.'

"I didn't argue the decision or anything, but I brought it up. I just thought, is there any way we can do this deal without putting Shai in it?"

Of course, Presti had his eyes on Gilgeous-Alexander, and to trade for a superstar in the NBA, everything is on the table in talks. Rivers thinks the Thunder won the trade, but hindsight is obviously 20-20.

"If you did everything whatever amount of years later, you would never do that deal," Rivers said. "You just wouldn't. But who had a crystal ball?"

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/news/doc-rivers-questioned-shai-gilgeous-alexander-trade-to-thunder-are-you-sure

Normally, you could get away with making revisionist claims like that, but not here. SGA was considered a rising star in the league, but in case you think otherwise, Doc Rivers and his big mouth, is there to remind you that the LAC also thought him as a future superstar.

Also how is it a win when people say you had to make the trade to acquire Kawhi? So what? Kawhi was and is damaged goods. From every angle, the trade has been a complete failure. They would have been better off if they had not completed the deal and had not brought in Paul or Kawhi. We already know this, and Doc has acknowledged it as well.

So why can't you?

[clippertown]

It sure seems like Presti did.

Presti was no more aware than any other GM. He knew that SGA would be solid but he assumed that SGA would not be a superstar which is why he demanded so much additional draft compensation. Presti knew that PG was worth much more than SGA.

Keep in mind that the Hornets drafted SGA, not the Clippers. They swapped SGA for Miles Bridges and a couple of 2nds so that the Clippers could have him. Clearly, they valued Bridges more than SGA. If the Clippers kept Bridges, he would be in OKC right now.

"I even brought it up to Kawhi (Leonard): 'Are you sure?'" Rivers said. "'I think Shai's going to be an amazing player. It may take a year or two, but I think you're underestimating how good Shai's going to be.'

"I didn't argue the decision or anything, but I brought it up. I just thought, is there any way we can do this deal without putting Shai in it?"

Of course, Presti had his eyes on Gilgeous-Alexander, and to trade for a superstar in the NBA, everything is on the table in talks. Rivers thinks the Thunder won the trade, but hindsight is obviously 20-20.

"If you did everything whatever amount of years later, you would never do that deal," Rivers said. "You just wouldn't. But who had a crystal ball?"

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/news/doc-rivers-questioned-shai-gilgeous-alexander-trade-to-thunder-are-you-sure

Normally, you would be able to get away with statements like that. It wasn't true SGA was viewed as a budding star in the league but just in case you believe something different doc rivers with his big mouth is there to remind you the LAC viewed him as a future superstar too because he really wants the world to know evenso it wasn't it wasn't his fault because like JJ says it never is.

Anyways my point was the Kawhi portion of the trade was a failure as well. So when people said you had to do he trade to get Kawhi how is that a win? What has Kawhi been? The trade has been a disaster from every perspective. They could have not done the deal and not brought in Paul or Kawhi and been better off. We know this already and even Doc has admitted it.

So why can't you?

Nobody knew SGA would be an awesome player at the time. Doc is using a crystal ball in this conversation. Obviously, if the Clippers knew that SGA was going to turn into a superstar, they would have just passed on Kawhi and rode it out with SGA.

On the other hand, after one year with the Clippers, SGA had already become a fan favorite. Everybody knew he would be good.

This is a classic case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. PG was a guaranteed star - SGA was not.

[Dan Z]

2019-07-10

• Paul George

for

• Danilo Gallinari
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• 2021 first round pick (#18-Tre Mann)
• 2022 first round pick (#12-Jalen Williams)
• first round pick (protected top 14 in 2023-25, unprotected in 2026) (2023 #18-Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
• Thunder option to swap 2023 first round picks with Clippers (not exercised)
• 2024 first round pick (#26-Dillon Jones)
• Thunder option to swap 2025 first round pick with Clippers
• 2026 first round pick

Nice breakdown. Thanks.

So basically, it is PG for SGA and Jalen Williams, so far. OKC still wins due to SGA being awesome, but it’s not the greatest deal of all time. PG was #3 in the running for MVP the year before he was traded and OKC didn’t want to trade him at all.

One can only fantasize that Kawhi realized SGA’s potential earlier and did not force the team to trade for PG.

It's not the worst trade of all time...I agree with you about that, but it's still bad. Nobody today would trade SGA and Jalen Williams for PG and Kawhi (not to mention the other picks OKC got in the deal). Of course, nobody knew that SGA would turn into an MVP level player.

However, I never thought the Clippers should hitch their wagon to Kawhi. He has a history of injuries and in order to get him they had to over pay for PG. I'm not surprised that a few years later the Clippers haven't gone very far in the playoffs.

[Sixers in 4]

Presti was no more aware than any other GM. He knew that SGA would be solid but he assumed that SGA would not be a superstar which is why he demanded so much additional draft compensation. Presti knew that PG was worth much more than SGA.

Keep in mind that the Hornets drafted SGA, not the Clippers. They swapped SGA for Miles Bridges and a couple of 2nds so that the Clippers could have him. Clearly, they valued Bridges more than SGA. If the Clippers kept Bridges, he would be in OKC right now.

"I even brought it up to Kawhi (Leonard): 'Are you sure?'" Rivers said. "'I think Shai's going to be an amazing player. It may take a year or two, but I think you're underestimating how good Shai's going to be.'

"I didn't argue the decision or anything, but I brought it up. I just thought, is there any way we can do this deal without putting Shai in it?"

Of course, Presti had his eyes on Gilgeous-Alexander, and to trade for a superstar in the NBA, everything is on the table in talks. Rivers thinks the Thunder won the trade, but hindsight is obviously 20-20.

"If you did everything whatever amount of years later, you would never do that deal," Rivers said. "You just wouldn't. But who had a crystal ball?"

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/news/doc-rivers-questioned-shai-gilgeous-alexander-trade-to-thunder-are-you-sure

Normally, you would be able to get away with statements like that. It wasn't true SGA was viewed as a budding star in the league but just in case you believe something different doc rivers with his big mouth is there to remind you the LAC viewed him as a future superstar too because he really wants the world to know evenso it wasn't it wasn't his fault because like JJ says it never is.

Anyways my point was the Kawhi portion of the trade was a failure as well. So when people said you had to do he trade to get Kawhi how is that a win? What has Kawhi been? The trade has been a disaster from every perspective. They could have not done the deal and not brought in Paul or Kawhi and been better off. We know this already and even Doc has admitted it.

So why can't you?

Nobody knew SGA would be an awesome player at the time. Doc is using a crystal ball in this conversation. Obviously, if the Clippers knew that SGA was going to turn into a superstar, they would have just passed on Kawhi and rode it out with SGA.

On the other hand, after one year with the Clippers, SGA had already become a fan favorite. Everybody knew he would be good.

This is a classic case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. PG was a guaranteed star - SGA was not.

That is not at all what he said. He said he didn't want to do the deal at all, but Kawhi refused to move off his ask for PG13 and forced his hand. When he talks about the PG13 trade, he is not using a crystal ball when he says that he did not want to make the trade with SGA included because he thought he would become a superstar in the future.

I don't know how you read that and walk away with anything different.

[stillgotgame]

In 5 years the amazing SGA has won exactly 1 playoff series. He beat a Zion-less Pelicans team,
Call this trade good when they win something.

[dhsilv2]

He was healthy in the playoffs the next year so not sure how you are saying that his body would not hold up even another year. We literally have the EVIDENCE of him playing every game for the Clippers in the 2020 post-season (13 games). He averaged 28ppg, 9rpg and 5apg on 49%fg.

If he did that of course he's locked in the top 15 and he seriously damages Lebron's legacy.

If Lebron only has 3 championships and lost twice to Kawhi in the playoffs we would be looking at Lebron way differently and Kawhi would be elevated as one of the greatest playoff players ever after MJ who just couldn't stay healthy for long enough.

When he made that choice he had no idea the world would lockdown for months and we'd be playing a disny princess event. But no it doesn't make Leonard top 15 and I'm not sure it impacts lebron's legacy at all. Obviously it would have been good for Leonard because even with the BS of the bubble, I'm sure another win helps his legacy. But his career would still have full of missed time and would lack the all nba selections and totality of work. There's no world he's top 15 after that. He's at best getting into some top 25 lists. And meanwhile we'd still be debating MJ/Kareem/Lebron for GOAT.

You don't think Lebron being 3-7 in NBA Finals would affect his legacy?

Wow.

You don't think if Kawhi added his 3rd finals MVP and won a back-to-back title...he wouldn't enter the top 15 of all time?

Wow.

I mean...anything you do impacts your legacy. But I don't think the 2020 bubble impacted lebron in any meaningful way and I don't think he could have. Lebron was already seen as the GOAT by a majority of people by then so the idea it changes things if he loses vs winning is just wild to me.

And the leonard stuff...I don't grasp how that changes that he's not played enough games to be top 15. He's a 6 time allstar. He's never been MVP. Basically he'd have to rank over Jerry West who want to 9 NBA finals! And was a 14x allstar and 12x all nba player. 3 titles doesn't pass that up! Hell, he can't be ranked over Jokic and Giannis who have multiple MVP's and both won a title. We should even add in it wasn't like Leonard was the clear best player on the Spurs either. He'd have been the clear best player on 2 title teams. That's awesome and all, but I don't have Zeke in my top 50 and a great many others don't either.

And I'll even grant you all the above is under the assumption that I give full weight to the 2020 playoffs as equal to a real playoffs.

[ThunderBolt]

Historically bad for who? If you are a thunder fan, wouldn't it be historically good?

[yitur]

It was historically bad the moment it happened but everyone excused it because it was not just for George, it was for George+Kawhi. I would love to learn what the Clippers fans think of the last 6 seasons and the trade now.

[clippertown]

That is not at all what he said. He said he didn't want to do the deal at all, but Kawhi refused to move off his ask for PG13 and forced his hand. When he talks about the PG13 trade, he is not using a crystal ball when he says that he did not want to make the trade with SGA included because he thought he would become a superstar in the future.

I don't know how you read that and walk away with anything different.

You make it sound like Doc thought SGA would be just as good as Kawhi. This is just revisionist thinking. Doc wanted the strongest team he could get and if SGA was that good, Doc would have just said no to Kawhi and let him join the Lakers.

I was a Clipper fan during this time and have a clear memory of SGA's progress and development in his rookie year. Nobody was using the superstar word back then. Nobody during that time thought that SGA should be the main ballast of the trade, it was always about the picks. SGA was the best asset the Clippers had and the picks were the bridge between SGA's value and PG perceived value. Your entitled to your take, but I have my own interpretation of how that situation played out.

Doc also thought Jerome Robinson would be a star player which is why he chose him instead of MPJ in the same draft.

[Sixers in 4]

That is not at all what he said. He said he didn't want to do the deal at all, but Kawhi refused to move off his ask for PG13 and forced his hand. When he talks about the PG13 trade, he is not using a crystal ball when he says that he did not want to make the trade with SGA included because he thought he would become a superstar in the future.

I don't know how you read that and walk away with anything different.

You make it sound like Doc thought SGA would be just as good as Kawhi. This is just revisionist thinking. Doc wanted the strongest team he could get and if SGA was that good, Doc would have just said no to Kawhi and let him join the Lakers.

I was a Clipper fan during this time and have a clear memory of SGA's progress and development in his rookie year. Nobody was using the superstar word back then. Nobody during that time thought that SGA should be the main ballast of the trade, it was always about the picks. SGA was the best asset the Clippers had and the picks were the bridge between SGA's value and PG perceived value. Your entitled to your take, but I have my own interpretation of how that situation played out.

Doc also thought Jerome Robinson would be a star player which is why he chose him instead of MPJ in the same draft.

The crystal ball portion of the trade according to DOC was kawhi but he has admitted he didn't want to include SGA in the PG13 and would have preferred to either not do the trade or find someway to not include him in the deal. I mean I have my own perspective on how I considered SGA at the time, you can have yours and we can legitimately disagree on that.

We can't disagree on how the LAC viewed SGA because they have told us unless you want to say Doc is lying about the entire situation because it's a documented fact. The way it was framed not only at the time but also Doc admitted to in interviews is it was Kawhi + George - SGA or just SGA. If Kawhi wasn't damaged goods the thinking would have been somewhat defensible even though historically you don't give up extra assets to make trades to open up other opportunities. Like if X is worth X it's worth X it isn't worth 2X because it also opens up the opportunity for y. Somehow Presti managed to scam the Clippers into paying more based on asset he didn't even have and that asset turned out to have bum knees.

So it was what it was but lets at least admit what it was. Doc has. I don't know why LAC fans can't.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Presti was no more aware than any other GM. He knew that SGA would be solid but he assumed that SGA would not be a superstar which is why he demanded so much additional draft compensation. Presti knew that PG was worth much more than SGA.

Keep in mind that the Hornets drafted SGA, not the Clippers. They swapped SGA for Miles Bridges and a couple of 2nds so that the Clippers could have him. Clearly, they valued Bridges more than SGA. If the Clippers kept Bridges, he would be in OKC right now.

"I even brought it up to Kawhi (Leonard): 'Are you sure?'" Rivers said. "'I think Shai's going to be an amazing player. It may take a year or two, but I think you're underestimating how good Shai's going to be.'

"I didn't argue the decision or anything, but I brought it up. I just thought, is there any way we can do this deal without putting Shai in it?"

Of course, Presti had his eyes on Gilgeous-Alexander, and to trade for a superstar in the NBA, everything is on the table in talks. Rivers thinks the Thunder won the trade, but hindsight is obviously 20-20.

"If you did everything whatever amount of years later, you would never do that deal," Rivers said. "You just wouldn't. But who had a crystal ball?"

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/news/doc-rivers-questioned-shai-gilgeous-alexander-trade-to-thunder-are-you-sure

Normally, you would be able to get away with statements like that. It wasn't true SGA was viewed as a budding star in the league but just in case you believe something different doc rivers with his big mouth is there to remind you the LAC viewed him as a future superstar too because he really wants the world to know evenso it wasn't it wasn't his fault because like JJ says it never is.

Anyways my point was the Kawhi portion of the trade was a failure as well. So when people said you had to do he trade to get Kawhi how is that a win? What has Kawhi been? The trade has been a disaster from every perspective. They could have not done the deal and not brought in Paul or Kawhi and been better off. We know this already and even Doc has admitted it.

So why can't you?

Nobody knew SGA would be an awesome player at the time. Doc is using a crystal ball in this conversation. Obviously, if the Clippers knew that SGA was going to turn into a superstar, they would have just passed on Kawhi and rode it out with SGA.

On the other hand, after one year with the Clippers, SGA had already become a fan favorite. Everybody knew he would be good.

This is a classic case of a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. PG was a guaranteed star - SGA was not.

Nobody? I have dozens of receipts saying otherwise. Not to mention just 10-20 games after the trade I made a thread here asking for a refund saying they would regret it.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Historically bad for who? If you are a thunder fan, wouldn't it be historically good?

Historically lopsided is what I mean. Good for Thunder, bad for Clippers lol.

[clippertown]

That is not at all what he said. He said he didn't want to do the deal at all, but Kawhi refused to move off his ask for PG13 and forced his hand. When he talks about the PG13 trade, he is not using a crystal ball when he says that he did not want to make the trade with SGA included because he thought he would become a superstar in the future.

I don't know how you read that and walk away with anything different.

You make it sound like Doc thought SGA would be just as good as Kawhi. This is just revisionist thinking. Doc wanted the strongest team he could get and if SGA was that good, Doc would have just said no to Kawhi and let him join the Lakers.

I was a Clipper fan during this time and have a clear memory of SGA's progress and development in his rookie year. Nobody was using the superstar word back then. Nobody during that time thought that SGA should be the main ballast of the trade, it was always about the picks. SGA was the best asset the Clippers had and the picks were the bridge between SGA's value and PG perceived value. Your entitled to your take, but I have my own interpretation of how that situation played out.

Doc also thought Jerome Robinson would be a star player which is why he chose him instead of MPJ in the same draft.

The crystal ball portion of the trade according to DOC was kawhi but he has admitted he didn't want to include SGA in the PG13 and would have preferred to either not do the trade or find someway to not include him in the deal. I mean I have my own perspective on how I considered SGA at the time, you can have yours and we can legitimately disagree on that.

We can't disagree on how the LAC viewed SGA because they have told us unless you want to say Doc is lying about the entire situation because it's a documented fact. The way it was framed not only at the time but also Doc admitted to in interviews is it was Kawhi + George - SGA or just SGA. If Kawhi wasn't damaged goods the thinking would have been somewhat defensible even though historically you don't give up extra assets to make trades to open up other opportunities. Like if X is worth X it's worth X it isn't worth 2X because it also opens up the opportunity for y. Somehow Presti managed to scam the Clippers into paying more based on asset he didn't even have and that asset turned out to have bum knees.

So it was what it was but lets at least admit what it was. Doc has. I don't know why LAC fans can't.

I am not disagreeing with what you said for the most part. I get that Doc valued SGA, which is why he moved up in the draft to get him. My issue is with the conception that everybody knew SGA would be a superstar, in which case the Clippers gave up both the best player in the trade plus a slew of picks. That is just not the truth. The best player in the trade was PG13 and it was not even close. Without those additional assets, it was simply not worth it to Presti and the deal would not get done.

At the time of the trade, it was not the worst trade in modern sports history (nor is it today).

[clippertown]

Nobody? I have dozens of receipts saying otherwise. Not to mention just 10-20 games after the trade I made a thread here asking for a refund saying they would regret it.

I watched every single game SGA played as a rookie. He averaged around 10ppg and showed potential. To say that people knew he would be an MVP candidate is just revisionist thinking. Clipper fans loved SGA but few would have kept him vs Kawhi + PG13.

If asked today, few Clipper fans would make the trade again, but that is how it works in the NBA.