OT: Clinton or Bush?

[Kampuchea]

I think the 46-47% national number for Trump is pretty accurate. That's where he was the last 2 cycles, I'd be surprised if he was over 47% or under 46%. Just seems like his floor and ceiling are set

With that being said, I do think the polls are doing everything they can to not underestimate him this time. No Republican has gotten over 47.2% since Bush Jr. in '04 (last time a Republican won a majority of total votes as well), so that tracks. Plus, Kamala has a pretty good favorability vs unfavorability rating (she's still net negative, but just barely so, unlike Trump and Biden who are both net negative 10+)

It's all about the margins. PA early voting looks really good, MI early voting looks solid, WI less so (one of the states with a plurality of votes from neither party), plus NC has the wildcard of Mark Robinson potentially dragging Trump down/driving more Dem turnout

I think it's rare for a candidate to win every state two cycles in a row and just add, personally speaking I expect a couple of flips. IMO, most likely outcome is blue wall of WI, MI, and PA, with GA and AZ flipping Trump and NC flipping blue. And at that point, NV doesn't matter. It just comes down to who can drive turnout more. Dems win when they get people excited, and I think despite some regression, people are still generally excited for Kamala. I hate horseshoe theory because it's always used incorrectly, but I do think both the "Kamala is gonna lose because Palestine" and "Trump is gonna win the popular vote because everybody loves him" camps are just terminally online and only listening to their echo chambers

Trump can still win of course, I do have my odds at 60/40, but he needs a lot to break his way, and the further out we get from 2016, the more that looks like an outlier, and traditional methods will be more effective

Also big factor imo is the fact he was already pretty broke and then it turns out the people he was paying to do his job for him with canvassing just ripped him off, because it's all grifters all the way down.

Doesn’t the early voting always favor democrats?

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?s=46&t=ZScbCOS-e1RwvSq7ABkKLQ

[Pointgod]

If it wasn’t bad enough defending a rapist criminal, all the Trump supporters in this thread are now going to defend him groping an underage girl.

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[Guano]

The 2 people who voted for rfk should be banned

[MrDollarBills]

The notion that facts cannot be corroborated or verified is absolutely horse sh*t. This is the problem when people fall into conspiracy rabbit holes, they start thinking that everything is a lie and in turn it fuels paranoia and superiority complexes, and they start doubting the reality front of them.

The sky is blue and the Sun will rise tomorrow. These are facts. Newspapers and media outlets that have credibility will vet their sources and will be able to corroborate their reporting. It's not that hard to identify which outlets do and don't.

[Jalen Bluntson]

If only there was a way to educate/inform the voters about all of the issues while preventing the dissemination of lies and conspiracy theories on such a grand scale.

[MrDollarBills]

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Yeah I think this is a fair question to ask the Trump supporters among us.

Why would you support someone that has good things to say about Hitler?

[DOT]

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Yeah I think this is a fair question to ask the Trump supporters among us.

Why would you support someone that has good things to say about Hitler?

The funny part is, Hitler's generals quite famously tried many times to kill him

They all failed of course

I actually do have 1 good thing to say about Hitler. He's the guy who took out Hitler. That has to count for something.

[MrDollarBills]

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This might be a critical error.

[Fat Kat]

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Yeah I think this is a fair question to ask the Trump supporters among us.

Why would you support someone that has good things to say about Hitler?

Because Hitler hated the same people they do. As does Trump. We have to stop pussyfooting around issues, and resist trying to find commonality with these folk. They know who they are, they just enjoy engagement.

[spree8]

The notion that facts cannot be corroborated or verified is absolutely horse sh*t. This is the problem when people fall into conspiracy rabbit holes, they start thinking that everything is a lie and in turn it fuels paranoia and superiority complexes, and they start doubting the reality front of them.

The sky is blue and the Sun will rise tomorrow. These are facts. Newspapers and media outlets that have credibility will vet their sources and will be able to corroborate their reporting. It's not that hard to identify which outlets do and don't.

I didn’t say facts can’t be verified? I’m saying that getting all of your facts from the MSM isn’t a good idea.

Not sure how that’s considered going down a conspiracy rabbit hole, seems like common knowledge to me, but ok.

Coming from a guy who posted a bunch of news about Trump having to sit on a towel on live tv because he shyt his pants, when all he had to do was watch the video to see it was his jacket, is funny tho

[ScienceOfLosing]

Sir. Sir. Excuse me. Excuse me, fake news, I did not call you a name. I demand you recant that false allegation. We're not gonna name call each other regardless of disagreements

Saying:

"Black people", "Black folks", "African American" is perfectly fine. I'm Caribbean American, so calling me African American is okay as well because I am a person of African descent as are most people from the Caribbean. For someone who isn't American, "Black person/people" is fine. When people use "blacks", or my favorite, "the blacks", it comes off as dehumanizing. I don't believe that was your intent, so it's good to have these discussions.

Regarding abortion, I believe the limit is 24 weeks. No doctor is going to abort after that unless there are medical reasons to do so.

So say, a 12 year old girl is raped in a state that has a total abortion ban. Should she be forced to carry the baby to term?

You know it is weird, as I never really thought saying “black” is bad. I never said “the blacks” or “the Chinese”, etc. as that does add negativity, agreed. I never minded being called White. It was always how a word was said that mattered. But I get how in text we totally get the wrong idea.

Read what I just said above, I was just against later abortions. But again, it is up to the States and I got no problem w that.
I find it interesting though that (here) people of African descent, that I’ve seen, don’t bring up that Margarit Singer, who started planned parenthood wanted to extermintate blacks (her words) and Hillary C. Admired her. WHAT.???

Life is sacred to me, all colors. If you want to argue for abortion, then focus on these cases of rape, medical emergencies, etc.
I am afraid abortion is treated as just birth control and we can’t forget the sacredness of life.

You clearly don't know anything about abortions. That much is clear. They were administered exactly how you said they should be. Also...it isn't about being pro abortion. It's about the woman carrying the baby. It's about her body her choice. You can be pro choice and not pro abortion.

There are no such things as late term abortion being used as birth control. No one who is pro choice wants that either. Late term abortions have always been a matter of life and death/medical concerns for BOTH the baby and the mother. This idea that you can get an abortion whenever you want is a flat out lie. It is ridiculous to suggest that even being a part of the discussion.

You keep bringing up this MagarEt SAnger talking point. She was AGAINST abortions. She was also dead before RvW was passed. Do you have any clue what you are talking about right now? She was the woman responsible for birth control. She was also born in 1879. Times change.

Seeing how you are so completely misinformed, maybe you should mind your own business. That's the entire problem. People don't even know what they are arguing against or why.

Any opinion on pro lifers bombing abortion clinics or murdering doctors? Do you even know that happens?

I believe preachers over you. Listen and learn.

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[Jalen Bluntson]

You know it is weird, as I never really thought saying “black” is bad. I never said “the blacks” or “the Chinese”, etc. as that does add negativity, agreed. I never minded being called White. It was always how a word was said that mattered. But I get how in text we totally get the wrong idea.

Read what I just said above, I was just against later abortions. But again, it is up to the States and I got no problem w that.
I find it interesting though that (here) people of African descent, that I’ve seen, don’t bring up that Margarit Singer, who started planned parenthood wanted to extermintate blacks (her words) and Hillary C. Admired her. WHAT.???

Life is sacred to me, all colors. If you want to argue for abortion, then focus on these cases of rape, medical emergencies, etc.
I am afraid abortion is treated as just birth control and we can’t forget the sacredness of life.

You clearly don't know anything about abortions. That much is clear. They were administered exactly how you said they should be. Also...it isn't about being pro abortion. It's about the woman carrying the baby. It's about her body her choice. You can be pro choice and not pro abortion.

There are no such things as late term abortion being used as birth control. No one who is pro choice wants that either. Late term abortions have always been a matter of life and death/medical concerns for BOTH the baby and the mother. This idea that you can get an abortion whenever you want is a flat out lie. It is ridiculous to suggest that even being a part of the discussion.

You keep bringing up this MagarEt SAnger talking point. She was AGAINST abortions. She was also dead before RvW was passed. Do you have any clue what you are talking about right now? She was the woman responsible for birth control. She was also born in 1879. Times change.

Seeing how you are so completely misinformed, maybe you should mind your own business. That's the entire problem. People don't even know what they are arguing against or why.

Any opinion on pro lifers bombing abortion clinics or murdering doctors? Do you even know that happens?

I believe preachers over you. Listen and learn.

Read on Twitter

You believe preachers over facts? For you to sit here and act is if black people are the only people who have abortions is ridiculous for one thing. If you think Democrats are forcing black people to have abortions that is as ridiculous as it gets. I wouldn't waste my time watching that video because I am sure it will be just as ridiculous as the BS you are trying to say here.

You have been dead wrong and pushing misinformed talking points. I just proved everything you said about abortions as false. You are truly clueless. It's a danger to this country to have such misinformed people voting. You are a part of the problem.

You are willing to vote for a fascist racist rapist con man. Those are all proven facts. Your credibility in any discussion has been destroyed every time you open your mouth. Your simply wrong on the subject. Just like the BS EOs you were trying to sell 4 years ago. Stop acting like you have ever read a book or done any research of your own. You simply repeat what you hear from morons and act like it is facts. So far you have been wrong about everything.

[Hatrick Ewing]

Who does everyone here like, CNN or Foxnews? Roll call!

[Hatrick Ewing]

Do you all think an athlete will be president someday?

[Hatrick Ewing]

Does it bug anyone that precedent and president can be interchanged if you are stupid?

[St Knick]

If it wasn’t bad enough defending a rapist criminal, all the Trump supporters in this thread are now going to defend him groping an underage girl.

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Rumor LOL
How convenient

[spree8]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/651977/americans-trust-media-remains-trend-low.aspx

[ScienceOfLosing]

You clearly don't know anything about abortions. That much is clear. They were administered exactly how you said they should be. Also...it isn't about being pro abortion. It's about the woman carrying the baby. It's about her body her choice. You can be pro choice and not pro abortion.

There are no such things as late term abortion being used as birth control. No one who is pro choice wants that either. Late term abortions have always been a matter of life and death/medical concerns for BOTH the baby and the mother. This idea that you can get an abortion whenever you want is a flat out lie. It is ridiculous to suggest that even being a part of the discussion.

You keep bringing up this MagarEt SAnger talking point. She was AGAINST abortions. She was also dead before RvW was passed. Do you have any clue what you are talking about right now? She was the woman responsible for birth control. She was also born in 1879. Times change.

Seeing how you are so completely misinformed, maybe you should mind your own business. That's the entire problem. People don't even know what they are arguing against or why.

Any opinion on pro lifers bombing abortion clinics or murdering doctors? Do you even know that happens?

I believe preachers over you. Listen and learn.

Read on Twitter

You believe preachers over facts? For you to sit here and act is if black people are the only people who have abortions is ridiculous for one thing. If you think Democrats are forcing black people to have abortions that is as ridiculous as it gets. I wouldn't waste my time watching that video because I am sure it will be just as ridiculous as the BS you are trying to say here.

You have been dead wrong and pushing misinformed talking points. I just proved everything you said about abortions as false. You are truly clueless. It's a danger to this country to have such misinformed people voting. You are a part of the problem.

You are willing to vote for a fascist racist rapist con man. Those are all proven facts. Your credibility in any discussion has been destroyed every time you open your mouth. Your simply wrong on the subject. Just like the BS EOs you were trying to sell 4 years ago. Stop acting like you have ever read a book or done any research of your own. You simply repeat what you hear from morons and act like it is facts. So far you have been wrong about everything.

Abortions affect black people a lot. And as I said before, my heart goes out to them all. (But abortions affect all colors.)
Life is precious. Have children and multiply.
Peace and Love
MAGA

PS - Executive Orders are still in play.

[ScienceOfLosing]

Kamala Kamala Kamala.. from bad to worse.

[Luv those Knicks]

Abortions affect black people a lot. And as I said before, my heart goes out to them all. (But abortions affect all colors.)
Life is precious. Have children and multiply.
Peace and Love
MAGA

PS - Executive Orders are still in play.

"Have children and multiply"

but when it comes to immigrants

"America is full, you're not welcome"

kindly explain how both of these things can be true at the same time? Children are a lot more work than immigrants. Childcare, public schools, the terrible teen years and problematic early 20s. If we need more people, why aren't you more eager to let in a few immigrants?

Me personally, I worry about overpopulation, but that's just me. I'd like to hear you explain how you love one but hate the other.

and I'm not saying I'm pro-abortion either, though many people want that option. I'm just pro recognizing that overpopulation is probably not in our best interest.