Retro Player of the Year 1981-82 UPDATE — Magic Johnson

[AEnigma]

How many games do you think the Spurs are winning minus Gervin? Not many.

More than the 1984 Rockets, let alone the 1983 Rockets.

The Rockets lost Reid & Dunleavy, and Elvin Hayes fell off a cliff as he hit age 37. C.Murphy went from 33 to 34. C.Jones was still a good defensive role player, but even he was 32, and the team had no offensive creators left. Plus the Rockets ownership tanked. They were notorious for it, not just for how badly they tanked but because they did it 2 years in a row.

Moses should get alot of credit for carrying the Rockets as much as he did, but I don't believe he was giving them 32 wins or anything close to that. There's little in the first 8 years of his career to suggest that kind of impact, despite evidence across 4 different franchises and 2 separate leagues.

But there is a lot more evidence for it than there is for Gervin, who in 1985 was traded for three mediocre Bulls and only saw them drop six wins. And that was with them essentially losing their starting point guard too.

From 1979-84, the Spurs were 9-10 without Gervin. And then in 1985 they were 7-3 without him. This year specifically, they were 3-0 without him. Destitute casts do not do that. Gervin was simply nowhere near as impactful as you have been treating him.

[One_and_Done]

Come on. 9-10 over a 6 year stretch? That's too small a sample to read much into it. The Spurs team also changed alot over those years, especially when Gervin got older and then left. In particular, Alvin Robertson went from a 22 yr old bench rookie in Gervin's last year to DPOY and an all-star & all-nba teamer who was 13th in the MVP vote the following year.

[Djoker]

Moses was a puppy in the ABA and when he joined the NBA. His impact when he was a teenager is irrelevant to assessing his impact in his prime. And yes his team was terrible. I don't even get all the bad postseason claims. He averaged 24/17 (with 9.3 offensive boards) on -1.7 rTS in a 1-2 loss to a much better Sonics team. It's not like his team was upset or he was really poor or something.

[70sFan]

So Bird was 100% worthy of the Celtics turnaround 2 years before, despite lack of evidence of such massive impact later in his career but we can't assume that Moses lifted the team in a considerably less outlier fashion because... he didn't replicate it?

I am sorry, but I find most of One_and_Done takes about supporting cast very selective, agenda driven and they are not backed up by any meaningful evidences.

[One_and_Done]

There's really nothing too complex here:
1) it's vastly tougher to turn a 40 win team into a 60 win team, than a 20 win team into a 40 win team. Not that I think the Celtics had a 40 win team minus Bird in 1980, or the the Rockets were a 20 win team in 1982 without Moses.

2) We have to look at context too. Moses career does not suggest some kind of massive floor raise, he was on too many teams where that evidently wasn't the case. What is more notable is that the Rockets were notorious for tanking in 83 and 84, with the avowed intention of getting Sampson and Hakeem, and that they lost key players while other key vets aged out. We can't take the 32 win drop as attributable to Moses, because the Rockets weren't trying to win. This wasn't a situation like the 2011 Cavs (who definitely tried to win for the first 40 games, but just failed at it), or the 79 Celtics who also tried hard to win.

I think Moses gave alot of lift to the Rockets in 82, but not even close to 32 wins. He almost made my top 5, those other guys are just better IMO.

You should brace yourself because I'm not going to have Moses #1 next year either. His team won the title, but that doesn't suddenly make him the best player. He was just on the best team.

[70sFan]

2) We have to look at context too. Moses career does not suggest some kind of massive floor raise, he was on too many teams where that evidently wasn't the case.

We don't have any evidences of Bird lifting teams by ~40 wins either and in fact we have quite different signals from his late prime seasons, but it didn't stop you from giving the vast majority of credit to him for 1980 Celtics turnaround.

What is more notable is that the Rockets were notorious for tanking in 83 and 84, with the avowed intention of getting Sampson and Hakeem, and that they lost key players while other key vets aged out.

What evidences do you have that 1984 Rockets tanked? If they did, then they were extremely bad at that.

We can't take the 32 win drop as attributable to Moses, because the Rockets weren't trying to win. This wasn't a situation like the 2011 Cavs (who definitely tried to win for the first 40 games, but just failed at it), or the 79 Celtics who also tried hard to win.

Again, what evidences do you have that these particular teams "tried hard" to win games in comparison to 1983 or 1984 Rockets? There are many assumptions here, but I don't see any arguments.

[One_and_Done]

2) We have to look at context too. Moses career does not suggest some kind of massive floor raise, he was on too many teams where that evidently wasn't the case.

We don't have any evidences of Bird lifting teams by ~40 wins either and in fact we have quite different signals from his late prime seasons, but it didn't stop you from giving the vast majority of credit to him for 1980 Celtics turnaround.

What is more notable is that the Rockets were notorious for tanking in 83 and 84, with the avowed intention of getting Sampson and Hakeem, and that they lost key players while other key vets aged out.

What evidences do you have that 1984 Rockets tanked? If they did, then they were extremely bad at that.

We can't take the 32 win drop as attributable to Moses, because the Rockets weren't trying to win. This wasn't a situation like the 2011 Cavs (who definitely tried to win for the first 40 games, but just failed at it), or the 79 Celtics who also tried hard to win.

Again, what evidences do you have that these particular teams "tried hard" to win games in comparison to 1983 or 1984 Rockets? There are many assumptions here, but I don't see any arguments.

I find it hard to believe you don't know about the infamous Houston tank job in 84:
https://www.sportingnews.com/jp/nba/news/1984-nba-draft-rockets-sixers-hakeem-olajuwon-michael-jordan-charles-barkley-pat-williams/19sfisl6mefzq1xk8aov4t7yf9

I'm not going to bother with most of the rest, which has been covered elsewhere before, but I don't see what Bird's late prime seasons would tell us if he wasn't as good anymore. I also wonder if you get how the law of diminishing returns works. At a certain point it's tough for a team to win any more, no matter how much extra talent you put on it, that's just how the RS works; especially after years and years of winning. Teams start to save their energy for the playoffs and coast a bit in the RS.

[OhayoKD]

2) We have to look at context too. Moses career does not suggest some kind of massive floor raise, he was on too many teams where that evidently wasn't the case.

We don't have any evidences of Bird lifting teams by ~40 wins either and in fact we have quite different signals from his late prime seasons, but it didn't stop you from giving the vast majority of credit to him for 1980 Celtics turnaround.

What is more notable is that the Rockets were notorious for tanking in 83 and 84, with the avowed intention of getting Sampson and Hakeem, and that they lost key players while other key vets aged out.

What evidences do you have that 1984 Rockets tanked? If they did, then they were extremely bad at that.

We can't take the 32 win drop as attributable to Moses, because the Rockets weren't trying to win. This wasn't a situation like the 2011 Cavs (who definitely tried to win for the first 40 games, but just failed at it), or the 79 Celtics who also tried hard to win.

Again, what evidences do you have that these particular teams "tried hard" to win games in comparison to 1983 or 1984 Rockets? There are many assumptions here, but I don't see any arguments.

I find it hard to believe you don't know about the infamous Houston tank job in 84:
https://www.sportingnews.com/jp/nba/news/1984-nba-draft-rockets-sixers-hakeem-olajuwon-michael-jordan-charles-barkley-pat-williams/19sfisl6mefzq1xk8aov4t7yf9

I'm not going to bother with most of the rest, which has been covered elsewhere before, but I don't see what Bird's late prime seasons would tell us if he wasn't as good anymore. I also wonder if you get how the law of diminishing returns works. At a certain point it's tough for a team to win any more, no matter how much extra talent you put on it, that's just how the RS works; especially after years and years of winning. Teams start to save their energy for the playoffs and coast a bit in the RS.

Bird's late-prime seasons don't (directly) tell us how good bird was, they tell us how good the cast was. The Celtics being a good team without Bird as they were past their prime indicates Bird had very good help when he was winning.

You also should not be preaching about things you have zero clue on. It being "vastly" harder to improve a 20 win team than a 40 win team is not something that has ever been tested meaningfully. It is also perfectly plausible for there to be scenarios where lifting the worse team is harder.

When you have to use terms like "floor-game" because you aren't comfortable defending what Bird is actually doing on the court, I don't think your confidence is warranted.

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, I disagree.

A star having succeeded with a bad team is not mutually exclusive with the idea of them succeeding with a good one. Lebron succeeding with the 2012 Heat (a good support cast), doesn't diminish his proven floor raising with the 09 or 10 Cavs (2 bad support casts). Ditto Duncan in 02 or 03 vs 2007 or 2014.

[ShaqAttac]

imma vote

DOCTOR J

beats bird superteam takes lakeshow to 6. going crazy vs magic and kareem is good enough for me.
MAGIC
most impact. has the best O and wins chip.

MOSES
2nd most impact and wins MVP but kinda chokes in pos. if he made final id prob vote him 1st but he didnt so.

KAREEM
Helps lakers wins a chip. Good O and Good D.

BIRD
chokes and loses to doctor j. i dont understand why wowy only matter for bird and no one else.

[70sFan]

I find it hard to believe you don't know about the infamous Houston tank job in 84:
https://www.sportingnews.com/jp/nba/news/1984-nba-draft-rockets-sixers-hakeem-olajuwon-michael-jordan-charles-barkley-pat-williams/19sfisl6mefzq1xk8aov4t7yf9

So, going by this article:

On March 6, 1984, the Rockets were 24-37, with a winning percentage of .393. They were three full games better than the Clippers, with 21 games to play. From there, Houston went 5-15, finishing just one game ahead of San Diego, which finished 30-52.

The Rockets also lost the last game, evidently on purpose. It shows that they likely tanked in their last 21 games, but how did they do in the first 61?

24-37 record (32 wins pace)
-2.0 Net Rating (35 wins pace)

They also faced playoff teams 14 times during the last 21 games, so it's not like they were expected to win many games anyway. Even if we take for granted their results before tanking, that still gives Moses around 15 wins of impact... but that doesn't include the fact that they added 3 quality starters in Lloyd, McCray and Sampson (who was an all-star that year).

I'm not going to bother with most of the rest, which has been covered elsewhere before,

It wasn't covered, it was assumed by you. You actually never provided any meaningful argument for that statement.

but I don't see what Bird's late prime seasons would tell us if he wasn't as good anymore.

Are you trying to tell me that rookie Bird was better than 1988 Bird? That's your statement?

[One_and_Done]

Who argues for 88 Bird as his peak? Bird himself talked about how he considered retirement in 88 he was so banged up by that point.
https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/larry-bird-said-he-would-have-retired-in-1988-if-len-bias-didnt-die
I get that your name is 70s fan, but you clearly weren't an 80s fan. First you question the veracity of the Rockets tanking, something that's incredibly well known, now you try to argue Bird was better in 1988 when he was struggling with injuries compared to his early years. These are really strange takes.

[70sFan]

Who argues for 88 Bird as his peak? Bird himself talked about how he considered retirement in 88 he was so banged up by that point.
https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/larry-bird-said-he-would-have-retired-in-1988-if-len-bias-didnt-die
I get that your name is 70s fan, but you clearly weren't an 80s fan. First you question the veracity of the Rockets tanking, something that's incredibly well known, now you try to argue Bird was better in 1988 when he was struggling with injuries compared to his early years. These are really strange takes.

Really strange take that 1988 Bird was better than rookie Bird? Seriously? Who am I arguing with?

[One_and_Done]

Who argues for 88 Bird as his peak? Bird himself talked about how he considered retirement in 88 he was so banged up by that point.
https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/larry-bird-said-he-would-have-retired-in-1988-if-len-bias-didnt-die
I get that your name is 70s fan, but you clearly weren't an 80s fan. First you question the veracity of the Rockets tanking, something that's incredibly well known, now you try to argue Bird was better in 1988 when he was struggling with injuries compared to his early years. These are really strange takes.

Really strange take that 1988 Bird was better than rookie Bird? Seriously? Who am I arguing with?

A guy who knows about Bird's career I guess. Bird was experiencing a bunch of injuries by 1988. Did you not read the article?

I guess you're confused because not many players come into the league as MVP players right away. Some do though (e.g. Kareem, Duncan, and yes Bird).

[70sFan]

Who argues for 88 Bird as his peak? Bird himself talked about how he considered retirement in 88 he was so banged up by that point.
https://www.basketballnetwork.net/old-school/larry-bird-said-he-would-have-retired-in-1988-if-len-bias-didnt-die
I get that your name is 70s fan, but you clearly weren't an 80s fan. First you question the veracity of the Rockets tanking, something that's incredibly well known, now you try to argue Bird was better in 1988 when he was struggling with injuries compared to his early years. These are really strange takes.

Really strange take that 1988 Bird was better than rookie Bird? Seriously? Who am I arguing with?

A guy who knows about Bird's career I guess. Bird was experiencing a bunch of injuries by 1988. Did you not read the article?

I guess you're confused because not many players come into the league as MVP players right away. Some do though (e.g. Kareem, Duncan, and yes Bird).

I can't believe what I am reading right now. It's definitely because I am "confused because not many players come into the league as MVP players right away".. yeah, that's exactly what is happening right now.

[Djoker]

!988 Bird was definitely a much better player than rookie 1980 Bird.

And colour me confused with not voting Moses as #1 in 1983. It's about as clear cut of a year as one will find in this project.

[Dr Positivity]

1. Magic Johnson - Magic is the best Laker this year with Kareem barely scoring more than Wilkes in the playoffs, and I don't see anyone else having a spectacular enough playoffs to beat him.

2. Julius Erving - He scores a bit better than Bird but passes less, and he beats him with less help in my opinion, so we'll give him the edge

3. Larry Bird - He has his best regular season yet with improved regular efficiency and great team record, though average playoffs.

4. Moses Malone - Low in assists always gives me pause, but puts up a huge season nonetheless carrying a crap team with the decline of Murphy

5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - His regular season still looks in consideration for top 2 although a pedestrian playoffs (.144 WS/48 for a fiendly player in that stat) despite winning.

Offensive player of the year

1. Magic Johnson
2. Gus Williams
3. Larry Bird

Defensive player of the year

1. Bobby Jones
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Jack Sikma

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 13 approved voters: Djoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, homecourtloss, ShaqAttac, Dr. Positivity, Penbeast, OhayoKD, One_and_Done, trelos, 70sFan, LA Bird, and Narigo. Penbeast, homecourtloss, OhayoKD, One_and_Done, ShaqAttac, LA Bird, and Narigo abstained from voting for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

1981-82 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Magic Johnson

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Magic Johnson   5   1   0    23    0.933
2. Gus Williams  0   3   0    9    0.300
3. Alex English    0   2   1    7   0.233
4. Moses Malone   1   0   1   6    0.200
5. Larry Bird   0   0   2    2    0.067
6. Julius Erving   0   0   1    1    0.033
6. George Gervin   0   0   1    1    0.033

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — Jack Sikma

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Jack Sikma    2   3   1    20    0.667
2. Bobby Jones    2   0   1    11   0.367
3. Robert Parish    2   0   0    10    0.333
4. Rick Mahorn   0   2   1    7    0.233
5. Sidney Moncrief    0   1   2    5    0.167
6. Buck Williams    0   0   1    1    0.033

Retro Player of the Year — Magic Johnson

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Magic Johnson  7  3  2  1  0   104   0.800
2. Julius Erving  2  5  4  1  1   79    0.608
3. Moses Malone  3  3  3  2  0   72   0.554
4. Larry Bird  1  2  3  5  1   55   0.423
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0 0 1 3 6   20   0.154
6. George Gervin   0  0  0  1  1   4   0.031
7. Sidney Moncrief   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.015
7. Gus Williams   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.015

In the prior project, there were 17 votes, with Dr. Positivity and penbeast overlapping. With their prior ballots removed, these are the aggregated results of the two projects across 28 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Moses Malone  17  3  4  2  0   217   0.775
2. Magic Johnson  7  12  7  2  0   195   0.696
3. Julius Erving  3  11  10  3  1   167    0.596
4. Larry Bird  1  2  6  12  4   94   0.336
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0 0 1 6 14   37   0.132
6. George Gervin   0  0  0  3  4   13   0.046
7. Sidney Moncrief   0  0  0  0  3   3   0.011
8. Gus Williams   0  0  0  0  2   2   0.007

1983 thread will open shortly.

[LA Bird]

Seems like I already missed this but I'll post my votes soon. Almost done with the writeup.

[70sFan]

Oh, I missed the voting... I even had my list prepared.