WookieOnRitalin wrote:It's one year. It is theoretical until it proves to be sustainable. You're using a predictive model that may or may not pan out. It is fine if you choose to do so, but does not change the idea that the situation is still vulnerable at best. You have already heard me say that the increase in viewership IS a good thing for the league, but will it actually change the overall outcome of bringing more people to the sport. According to public opinion, generally speaking, you are wrong so far. Not saying that it cannot change, but rather it is not where it needs to be to make the league an entity worth intriguing to the average sports fan. It has remained a niche. I highlighted several issues especially with regards for an all female league having a difficult time reaching female fans especially in total.
This is a situation where we will need to see if it sustains through time. It may not. You have to accept that as a possibility and the league could regress from a viewership perspective.
Maybe it won't sustain over time, but you have no reason to think that because the trend is that it has grown over time. It isn't just viewership, ticket sales and ticket prices were also at all time highs. All evidence points to a massive increase in interest. What evidence do you have to think it won't sustain?
From what I have seen interest in women's basketball has been growing over time in the WNCAA ranks pretty significantly, and we are seeing that now hit the WNBA as some of those players are coming in. The idea of the WNCAA splitting out their own TV deal has been being floated for probably 5 years now due to surging popularity.
It appears to me your counter argument is just based on your own bias that you don't like the WNBA and nothing else. You've not provided any reason to suspect decline, you are simply stating it is a possibility. Yeah, it is a possibility that this trend that momentum is building stronger and stronger and bigger and bigger could suddenly reverse, but unless you have a reason to think it will reverse, it sure doesn't seem like the likely outcome. A slow down in growth is way more likely than reversal, but a slow down in growth wouldn't be a death knell given they are already set to be drastically underpaid for 10 years on their next TV deal.
It would be like saying after Magic and Bird's rookie year that maybe people will just lose interest in them next year because they've seen it play out.
You and I have already agreed on this point, but the issue was not whether or not "should" be profitable, but rather will it continue to be profitable..
You pointed to it not being profitable now because it's a loser league even after the increase in viewership. I pointed out that isn't a valid way to view it because they have not captured the profits yet from increased viewership because of the timing of TV negotiations and I will add that many of the increases in ticket price sales have purely been in the secondary market.
Interest is a leading indicator. Profits are a trailing indicator. So I don't think you've agreed on this point.
You are coming off here a little triggered and you're also making an assumption that...
1: I do not follow women's college basketball
2: That I do not follow the WNBA in general
Neither impact the point I was making which is and was will the talent continue to reach the heights that once again "in theory" should project into future success. Again, this is chicken counting. These talents could end up regressing or underperforming at the next level. Happens all the time. You know that. I know that. If it does not pan out, what happens to league growth?
I am hardly ignorant as I make sure I keep tabs on this topic. There is just a difference between have an optimistic versus pessimistic view because my core concern is not addressed. If you associate that with ignorant, so be it.
You asked who is going to come from the NCAA that can boost it's popularity and apparently don't know that Paige Bueckers is just about as hyped and as big as Caitlin Clark, so I don't know what to tell you if you want to convince me you follow women's basketball, because if you do, then I don't know why you'd be asking who is going to come next to increase the popularity.
It's a statement that is absolutely nonsensical to make by someone who follows women's basketball, so I'm not sure where we are going here.
Beyond that, it's also irrelevant. The equivalent of Michael Jordan just entered the league this year. The WNBA doesn't need someone else to come in and boost the popularity. Clark's star is only going to grow. It's obvious she's already going to be on the MVP track already.
I think it does represent a large percentage of the attitude of people's view of women's basketball. That's the problem Doug. It is a second rate sport that still has significant hurdles to overcome in terms of its entertainment value. It's a foundational problem that the league has really failed to resolve in the almost 30 years of its existence.
Sure, no matter what sport you pick, even the NFL, the majority of the people in the country do not care about it. It doesn't matter that a large number of people don't care or like the WNBA. What matters is that a large group of people that is expanding rapidly DO like the WNBA.
My opinion is not whether or not I like or dislike the WNBA. My opinion is that it lacks the entertainment value to be a sustainable profitable growth entity.
I don't see any evidence backing this opinion. It appears based on your preconceived notions.
What we do agree on is that there are positive signs of growth, but I do not think that has any impact on the quality of the game which is foundational to its entertainment value. The sustainability of the league is tied directly to it. It is ultimately how it will be judged long term.
There's tons of counterfactuals here though.
Plenty of people here follow women's US Soccer even though the quality of it is less than the men's league. Women's tennis has been highly successful even though the women aren't anywhere near as good as the men. NCAA Men's basketball is no where near as good as the G-League but it makes 10000x as much money.
Interest isn't necessarily about raw highest talent.
