Did Shai surpass Jayson Tatum last year

[cupcakesnake]

Surpass him how though? What does that even mean?

When I read "surpass" my mind went to their careers. Otherwise the question is "who had the more efficient individual offensive season last year?"

Well SGA did I guess but that's not enough to surpass anything. The other guy has had a far better career at the same age and just won a title.

My assumption when I read stuff like this is that they're talking about current player ranking rather than total accumulative career value. That's how most people tend to respond, I find.

Like I rank Tatum higher than Lebron James and say he has surpassed him in the league hierarchy as Lebron has aged.

I definitely think Shai has surpassed Tatum in terms of a general consensus on player ranking right now. Not by a whole lot though. I saw a graphic that did a composite for a bunch of player rankings (ESPN, the Ringer, 2k, Hoopshype, Action Network, CBS). Shai came in 4th (range of 3-4) and Tatum came in 6th (range of 5-10).

Yeah I get it now. I wasn't trying to be shady with my initial graphic. As I said, when I read "surpassed" my mind went to career accomplishments.

If people think Shai is a marginally better player than Tatum I cant do anything about it and it's fine with me. He's really good and had a great season, while JT's jumper was kinda wack last year. Seems like Tatum is on track to rectify that this season though. Will we have a re-surpassing??

Honestly, I think I'm just a little grumpy about the daily dragging of my guy JT and my feeling that there's a double standard with how he is viewed relative to other young superstars. He just won a title and guys are somehow surpassing him and I don't get it.

SGA is dope as hell though, so if I poo on him at times take it with a grain of salt.

I do appreciate a little salt with my poo.

Also nothing wrong with pointing out the career accomplishments, and I agree the term "surpass" does call that comparison to mind. Tatum has now done enough that he's on the all-time ladder. He's already in my top 100 already (#88 and will probably climb higher every year). Shai isn't, though his MVP-calibre seasons means it's probably time. He had to spend his early career in pretty irrelevant circumstances, while Tatum was gift wrapped the best draft circumstance since Kobe met Shaq. It's pretty crazy, and it also means Tatum is going to climb playoff leaderboards. He's already 39th in total playoff points!!!! Another finals run will put him on the cusp of the top 20 at age 27. It's probably only Lebron James that is out of reach. Tatum has a real chance to be #2 in all-time playoff points. Insane.

The Shai era has begun though. He was completely unstoppable as a scorer in his first real playoff run, and that OKC roster currently has the best long term projections in the league. Shai is very likely to be a monster playoff fixture for the foreseeable future.

[bledredwine]

What are these crap stats being posted? The title reads “last year”

Shai averaged 30, 6 and 7 last year’s playoffs in ten games.

He’s not only better, but a level ahead of Tatum.

[ITYSL]

What are these crap stats being posted? The title reads “last year”

Shai averaged 30, 6 and 7 last year’s playoffs in ten games.

He’s not only better, but a level ahead of Tatum.

Brunson averaged more points and assists than SGA in the playoffs last year, just as SGA averaged more points and assists than Tatum. Did Brunson surpass SGA last year?

[DonaldSanders]

SGA has a +1.5 D-EPM, Tatum a +.7. SGA pretty sure also held players to lower shooting percentages. He’s also crushed Tatum in DBPM the last couple years. I literally don’t even think Tatum is the 2nd best defender on his own team, and the data shows that. He’s probably 3rd or 4th.

Defense, especially individual defense, is the hardest stat to quantify, look around any discussion on the validity of stats. DBPM is a pretty useless stat, Gobert won DPOY last year with a 1.7 DBPM, 3 rotational players on his own team had higher DBPMs.

Then if you look up Klay Thompson, he's never had a season with positive DBPM which is absolutely hilarious considering he was a lockdown perimeter defender in his prime. It's not a useful stat.

EPM does a better job but I still think defensive stats are one of the most misleading/hard to quantify. Guys who chase perimeter players often lose some of the credit and other guys on the team absorb some of it.

But I do think SGA had a better season last year, though Tatum has the better total career.

[OkcSinceSGA]

SGA has a +1.5 D-EPM, Tatum a +.7. SGA pretty sure also held players to lower shooting percentages. He’s also crushed Tatum in DBPM the last couple years. I literally don’t even think Tatum is the 2nd best defender on his own team, and the data shows that. He’s probably 3rd or 4th.

Defense, especially individual defense, is the hardest stat to quantify, look around any discussion on the validity of stats. DBPM is a pretty useless stat, Gobert won DPOY last year with a 1.7 DBPM, 3 rotational players on his own team had higher DBPMs.

Then if you look up Klay Thompson, he's never had a season with positive DBPM which is absolutely hilarious considering he was a lockdown perimeter defender in his prime. It's not a useful stat.

EPM does a better job but I still think defensive stats are one of the most misleading/hard to quantify. Guys who chase perimeter players often lose some of the credit and other guys on the team absorb some of it.

But I do think SGA had a better season last year, though Tatum has the better total career.

Agreed on all accounts. I’m not saying SGA is light years better or something. If he’s the 3rd or 4th best player in the league, Tatum would be 5th or 6th probably. So any given night either can play like MVP. I just think SGA is way more stable. Like I said he has lower variance of great to mediocre games.

Tatum can look like the best player in the game, then the next game completely disappear. That almost never happens with SGA.

[canada_dry]

they're statistically close

sga's job is to run the team. as a pg and team orchestrator he is averaging 5apg - i don't think it's enuf
as a career 3pt shooter he's a 34%er - that's below league average - i don't think that's good enuf for a pg either.

tatum doesn't lack for any numbers and so he checks more boxes for his position. he's only short on fg%

for what they're supposed to do as elite players, tatum is better, plus wings have been the deal breaker in championship runs, and pg's haven't,,,so i'll take the more valuable POSITION. i'd rather have a great wing and average pg than great pg and average wing

Tatum is behind in almost every advanced stat last season. Its not as close as you're making it seem.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[Vampirate]

Tatum feels like the player where Celtic fans overrate him but a lot of other fans underrate him.

[Myth]

According to a lot of people, apparently yes.

According to me and numbers and results, no.

Spoiler:

You forgot Tatum gold 1 gold medal > SGA 0 gold medals

2 gold medals actually but yeah. The thing people forgot when Kerr benched him is he was the 2nd best player on the US gold medal team at the previous Olympics at age 23.

So you’re saying he is regressing hmmm

[Vampirate]

What are these crap stats being posted? The title reads “last year”

Shai averaged 30, 6 and 7 last year’s playoffs in ten games.

He’s not only better, but a level ahead of Tatum.

Brunson averaged more points and assists than SGA in the playoffs last year, just as SGA averaged more points and assists than Tatum. Did Brunson surpass SGA last year?

No, both Brunson and Tatum actually had down years in the playoffs last year.

Brunson had a .536 TS last year and the year prior he had a .589 TS.

Tatum last year in the playoffs had a .549 TS and the year prior had a .585 (despite winning the chip, this was far from Tatum's best showing, scoring wise in the post season)

SGA had a .582 TS and the year prior had a .569 TS in the playoffs.

Here is their WS/48 last year in the playoffs

Brunson .115
Tatum .167 (Tatum was good, but it wasn't because he was a great scorer in the playoffs overall)
SGA .233

OWS

Brunson - 1.4
Tatum - 1.3
SGA - 1.1

DWS

Brunson - -0.1
Tatum - 1.3
SGA - 0.9

Total WS

Brunson - 1.2
Tatum - 2.8
SGA - 1.9

OBPM

Brunson - 5
Tatum - 2.3
SGA 5.9

DBPM

Brunson - -1.2
Tatum - 1.4
SGA - 3.3

Total BPM

Brunson - 3.8
Tatum - 3.7
SGA - 9.2

Vorp

Brunson - 0.8
Tatum - 1.1
SGA - 1.1

Overall SGA is the clear winner in the WS/48 and BPM while Tatum leads in the Win Shares.

Based on that I wouldn't say SGA necessarily surpassed Tatum, but did have the better playoffs last year on an individual level. If Tatum had the playoff TS of the year prior than he'd win this but he didn't.

[bledredwine]

What are these crap stats being posted? The title reads “last year”

Shai averaged 30, 6 and 7 last year’s playoffs in ten games.

He’s not only better, but a level ahead of Tatum.

Brunson averaged more points and assists than SGA in the playoffs last year, just as SGA averaged more points and assists than Tatum. Did Brunson surpass SGA last year?

You can't deny efficiency.

PER, 2024-25 Playoffs
Shai - 25.5
Brunson - 22.1
Tatum - 20.1

Shai has the same efficiency while attempting twice as many threes per game (10) as Brunson.
Now, I might consider it a 10 game fluke but he had an even better regular season. He's dominant.

Shai's on another level from these guys. He's closer to the territory of Luka, Jokic, etc than he is to Tatum/Brunson.

[ITYSL]

What are these crap stats being posted? The title reads “last year”

Shai averaged 30, 6 and 7 last year’s playoffs in ten games.

He’s not only better, but a level ahead of Tatum.

Brunson averaged more points and assists than SGA in the playoffs last year, just as SGA averaged more points and assists than Tatum. Did Brunson surpass SGA last year?

You can't deny efficiency.

PER, 2024-25 Playoffs
Shai - 25.5
Brunson - 22.1
Tatum - 20.1

Shai has the same efficiency while attempting twice as many threes per game (10) as Brunson.
Now, I might consider it a 10 game fluke but he had an even better regular season. He's dominant.

Shai's on another level from these guys. He's closer to the territory of Luka, Jokic, etc than he is to Tatum/Brunson.

First you list averages, then when shown how weak that argument is, you add on other things. And PER of all things.

Anthony Davis had more PRA per game and a higher PER than Shai in the playoffs last year. AD also had higher TS%. Is AD better than SGA?

Alternatively, maybe using a 10-game sample size in two playoff rounds isn't enough to say one player is clearly better than another. A better argument would be to look at the entirety of last season - both regular season and playoffs. Then I think the argument could definitely be made that SGA is better, depending on your definition of "surpass" in this context. Typically I'd think that Player A would need to have two seasons that are clearly better than Player B - otherwise we could see Tatum "surpassing" SGA this season. Either way, I think that ranking SGA over Tatum right now is fair. I just like arguing semantics

[Tacoma]

According to a lot of people, apparently yes.

According to me and numbers and results, no.

Spoiler:

This is an incredibly misleading graphic. He asked about LAST YEAR. Here are their 2024 playoff stats.

SGA

PPG 30.2
RPG 7.2
APG 6.4
SPG 1.3
BPG 1.7
FG% 49.6
3P% 43.2

Tatum

PPG 25.0
RPG 9.7
APG 6.3
SPG 1.1
BPG 0.7
FG% 42.7
3P% 28.3

SGA has better stats in every category except rebounds. I'm down for hearing that Tatum was a better player last year, but posting what you did is not a proper response to the question "Did Shai surpass Jayson Tatum last year"

Surpass him how though? What does that even mean?

When I read "surpass" my mind went to their careers. Otherwise the question is "who had the more efficient individual offensive season last year?"

Well SGA did I guess but that's not enough to surpass anything. The other guy has had a far better career at the same age and just won a title.

To use an analogy, let's say you've beaten me 10 times over the past 5 years in our careers in the 100m dash. Then this year, I've finally beaten you twice. By common logic, I've surpassed you since I've been able to beat you the last 2 times.

But by your logic, I've yet to surpass you because you've still beaten me 5 times to my 2 times and not accounting for recency of results. Sorry, I'm not buying your "career" argument.

I'd agree so far Tatum has had the better career but by last year's numbers and MVP voting, SGA has surpassed Tatum.

[bledredwine]

Brunson averaged more points and assists than SGA in the playoffs last year, just as SGA averaged more points and assists than Tatum. Did Brunson surpass SGA last year?

You can't deny efficiency.

PER, 2024-25 Playoffs
Shai - 25.5
Brunson - 22.1
Tatum - 20.1

Shai has the same efficiency while attempting twice as many threes per game (10) as Brunson.
Now, I might consider it a 10 game fluke but he had an even better regular season. He's dominant.

Shai's on another level from these guys. He's closer to the territory of Luka, Jokic, etc than he is to Tatum/Brunson.

First you list averages, then when shown how weak that argument is, you add on other things. And PER of all things.

Anthony Davis had more PRA per game and a higher PER than Shai in the playoffs last year. AD also had higher TS%. Is AD better than SGA?

Alternatively, maybe using a 10-game sample size in two playoff rounds isn't enough to say one player is clearly better than another. A better argument would be to look at the entirety of last season - both regular season and playoffs. Then I think the argument could definitely be made that SGA is better, depending on your definition of "surpass" in this context. Typically I'd think that Player A would need to have two seasons that are clearly better than Player B - otherwise we could see Tatum "surpassing" SGA this season. Either way, I think that ranking SGA over Tatum right now is fair. I just like arguing semantics

Nah, PER is a good indicator and AD was very good in the playoffs. He's been underrated for a while now. Whenever healthy, he's one of the best. That said, he only played 5 games.

Tatum has not been. Playoffs are important. PER is generally accurate, and you have to factor that in alongside averages.

Efficiency matters.

[ITYSL]

You can't deny efficiency.

PER, 2024-25 Playoffs
Shai - 25.5
Brunson - 22.1
Tatum - 20.1

Shai has the same efficiency while attempting twice as many threes per game (10) as Brunson.
Now, I might consider it a 10 game fluke but he had an even better regular season. He's dominant.

Shai's on another level from these guys. He's closer to the territory of Luka, Jokic, etc than he is to Tatum/Brunson.

First you list averages, then when shown how weak that argument is, you add on other things. And PER of all things.

Anthony Davis had more PRA per game and a higher PER than Shai in the playoffs last year. AD also had higher TS%. Is AD better than SGA?

Alternatively, maybe using a 10-game sample size in two playoff rounds isn't enough to say one player is clearly better than another. A better argument would be to look at the entirety of last season - both regular season and playoffs. Then I think the argument could definitely be made that SGA is better, depending on your definition of "surpass" in this context. Typically I'd think that Player A would need to have two seasons that are clearly better than Player B - otherwise we could see Tatum "surpassing" SGA this season. Either way, I think that ranking SGA over Tatum right now is fair. I just like arguing semantics

Nah, PER is a good indicator and AD was very good in the playoffs. He's been underrated for a while now. Whenever healthy, he's one of the best. That said, he only played 5 games.

Tatum has not been. Playoffs are important. PER is generally accurate, and you have to factor that in alongside averages.

Efficiency matters.

Complaining about a 5-game sample size while promoting a 10-game sample size is silly.

[reload141]

He’s not even close. If he wants to be, then OKC should be going to the Finals this year.

[Beethoven]

Yes. You switch the players in their specific contexts and you'll see Shai winning FMVP last year and the thunder last year not really getting anywhere.

[Lalouie]

they're statistically close

sga's job is to run the team. as a pg and team orchestrator he is averaging 5apg - i don't think it's enuf
as a career 3pt shooter he's a 34%er - that's below league average - i don't think that's good enuf for a pg either.

tatum doesn't lack for any numbers and so he checks more boxes for his position. he's only short on fg%

for what they're supposed to do as elite players, tatum is better, plus wings have been the deal breaker in championship runs, and pg's haven't,,,so i'll take the more valuable POSITION. i'd rather have a great wing and average pg than great pg and average wing

Tatum is behind in almost every advanced stat last season. Its not as close as you're making it seem.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

last season....last season essentially the celts came into their own and were as close to an egalitarian, spread the offense team as gsw was in the late teens. if you are sharing with good players and a player with whom there is talk about who is better, all your numbers suffer. there are many ways to look at it because some players are built to share and others are built to dominate. are you going to posit which is the better situation?,,,,cuz i'm not.

okc and denver rely on jokic and sga heavily. the celts don't and that's either good or bad depending on what you think matters. the celts have a ring,,,,that's all that matters because the end justifies the means. elite wing over elite pg - it still matters. maybe okc gets it done maybe they don't. maybe one reason why great pg's(magic and isiah excluded) don't get it done is they use up too much ball time

[reload141]

Yes. You switch the players in their specific contexts and you'll see Shai winning FMVP last year and the thunder last year not really getting anywhere.

Everyone talks about OKC being a supreme power and dominating the WC, yet they fell short, SGA didn’t step up his game.

Yet, Boston came out and dominated…. So if SGA is this great then he should’ve elevated his team, he didn’t.

So surely if he’s better then this year he will.

[reload141]

Yes. You switch the players in their specific contexts and you'll see Shai winning FMVP last year and the thunder last year not really getting anywhere.

Hypotheticals don’t work in this scenario, SGA was the lesser player as his team didn’t advance.

I love SGA, and want to see his succeed so let’s see if he can surpass Tatum this year and do that.

[Lalouie]

Yes. You switch the players in their specific contexts and you'll see Shai winning FMVP last year and the thunder last year not really getting anywhere.

Everyone talks about OKC being a supreme power and dominating the WC, yet they fell short, SGA didn’t step up his game.

Yet, Boston came out and dominated…. So if SGA is this great then he should’ve elevated his team, he didn’t.

So surely if he’s better then this year he will.

only magic and thomas ran their teams as pg and WON

i'd rather have the wings