Hypothetical Embiid to Houston (brainstorming)

[cgf]

So if Philly did want to realign to Maxey's timeline and Houston wanted to continue accelerating, I figured this might be the one combination of a team with the young talent to make it worth it for Philly, that could want to do it. So I was curious what people thought that hypothetical trade could look like if both teams did decide to go in that direction...ignoring how likely that was at this point in time.

Assuming nothing major changes with Joel's health...Philly's 100% just realigning their timeline, not bailing on damaged goods. So Houston is expecting the Embiid that Philly has been getting.

[wemby]

Philly's 100% just realigning their timeline, not bailing on damaged goods. So Houston is expecting the Embiid that Philly has been getting.

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

[cgf]

Philly's 100% just realigning their timeline, not bailing on damaged goods. So Houston is expecting the Embiid that Philly has been getting.

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

[JimmyPlopper]

If I was a Rockets fan, I'd rather see how it pans out with Sengun. He looks very promising and his career is just starting out - controllable, smaller contract, etc.

[Devilanche]

Philly's 100% just realigning their timeline, not bailing on damaged goods. So Houston is expecting the Embiid that Philly has been getting.

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

That seems highly optimistic. It’s probably 2 more run of full health. Before load managing and missing parts of playoff kick in.

Houston isn’t ready to compete this season so that’s 1 of those season kind of a waste.

[youngcrev]

Realign around a Maxey timeline? They just threw huge money at Paul George and a huge extension at Embiid. It's just pure fantasy talk.

Just as an exercise? I dunno. Sengun, Eason, filler, and like the 6 best future 1sts they own, unprotected.

Regardless, the Rockets are in no position to be going all in on a star with no complimentary star in place, and the Sixers are in no way looking to move their perennial MVP candidate.

[cgf]

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

That seems highly optimistic. It’s probably 2 more run of full health. Before load managing and missing parts of playoff kick in.

Houston isn’t ready to compete this season so that’s 1 of those season kind of a waste.

He's only 30. With load management / better pacing in the regular season I don't think 3-4 runs with him is unrealistic barring some new massive injury.

And how far away from contending are they if they replace Sengun with Joel and Joel is willing to pace himself on a much deeper team that doesn't just implode whenever he's on the bench? I think that depends on what it costs to get him.

[wemby]

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

That seems highly optimistic. It’s probably 2 more run of full health. Before load managing and missing parts of playoff kick in.

Houston isn’t ready to compete this season so that’s 1 of those season kind of a waste.

He's only 30. With load management / better pacing in the regular season I don't think 3-4 runs with him is unrealistic barring some new massive injury..

His birth certificate may say he's 30 (though who knows with him being from Cameroon) but his knees are closer to 40.

[cgf]

...

Dude...

[wemby]

...

Dude...

Age fraud is rampant in Africa and Cameroon in particular:
Cameroon ejected 32 players for failing age tests for a soccer tournament. How Samuel Eto’o is dealing with ‘age cheating’

Cameroon: 52 footballers suspended for “double identity”

Explained: Why Cameroon could be banned from international tournaments due to 'age cheating'

Wilfried Nathan Doualla: Cameroonian midfielder accused of age cheating

Scandal in Africa: Cameroon calls up a 17-year-old... but he doesn't look it

Age Cheating: The Scourge of Africa

Age fraud: How African football is trying to combat it

Age cheating is hurting African football

This is Mohamed Dabone, a "12 year old" prospect playing in Barcelona:



Not saying it is necessarily Embiid's case (certainly doesn't seem that obvious) but there's plenty of reason to take African prospect's age with a very large grain of salt.

[LarsV8]

I'd submit a pick package for Embiid, but I am adding him to the players we already have, not sending out a bunch of prospects for him.

[jbk1234]

I agree that the Sixers didn't sign PG to a 4 year deal just to turn around and trade Embiid before they've even had a chance to see what the team can do.

I also think that there comes a point with injuries at which an insurmountable delta, between asking price and what trade partners are willing to offer, develops.

[toooskies]

Embiid cannot be traded until next offseason because he just signed an extension in September.

When the time comes, OKC is more ready to pay for an MVP candidate to take them over the top than HOU.

[jbk1234]

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

That seems highly optimistic. It’s probably 2 more run of full health. Before load managing and missing parts of playoff kick in.

Houston isn’t ready to compete this season so that’s 1 of those season kind of a waste.

He's only 30. With load management / better pacing in the regular season I don't think 3-4 runs with him is unrealistic barring some new massive injury.

And how far away from contending are they if they replace Sengun with Joel and Joel is willing to pace himself on a much deeper team that doesn't just implode whenever he's on the bench? I think that depends on what it costs to get him.

It's not unrealistic that he manages 60 games per with load management and is healthy for the postseason over the next 3-4 seasons.

It's also not unrealistic that his knees just fail to hold up, actually get worse, and you never, or at least rarely, see prime Embiid in the playoffs again.

I don't know how the parties arrive on an agreed value given that range of outcomes. The very fact that the Morey would make him available would constitute a huge red flag to me.

[gswhoops]

Philly's 100% just realigning their timeline, not bailing on damaged goods. So Houston is expecting the Embiid that Philly has been getting.

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

This is the catch-22 of this whole idea.

If Embiid has 3-4 MVP level years in him then there's no way Philly would move him.

If he doesn't, then no one's going to give up this kind of package for him.

[cgf]

I think Embiid is going downhill pretty fast, given his injury history, weight and age. He shouldn't be the Rockets target.

Well let's assume that Houston feels confident they can get at least 3-4 more runs with MVP-Joel to make it worth it. What are we talking? Sengun + 1 or 2 of their young stud wings?

This is the catch-22 of this whole idea.

If Embiid has 3-4 MVP level years in him then there's no way Philly would move him.

If he doesn't, then no one's going to give up this kind of package for him.

Thus the hypothetical.

…but it also just requires them having disparate assessments of Embiid and the rosters they could put around him for these next 3-4 years.

Houston & Philly could both think Joel has 3-4 more runs, but Morey could doubt he has the supporting cast to capitalize on those while the much deeper Rockets could justifiably think they would be more likely to squeeze a ring out of Joel’s remaining prime.

[cgf]

That seems highly optimistic. It’s probably 2 more run of full health. Before load managing and missing parts of playoff kick in.

Houston isn’t ready to compete this season so that’s 1 of those season kind of a waste.

He's only 30. With load management / better pacing in the regular season I don't think 3-4 runs with him is unrealistic barring some new massive injury.

And how far away from contending are they if they replace Sengun with Joel and Joel is willing to pace himself on a much deeper team that doesn't just implode whenever he's on the bench? I think that depends on what it costs to get him.

It's not unrealistic that he manages 60 games per with load management and is healthy for the postseason over the next 3-4 seasons.

It's also not unrealistic that his knees just fail to hold up, actually get worse, and you never, or at least rarely, see prime Embiid in the playoffs again.

I don't know how the parties arrive on an agreed value given that range of outcomes. The very fact that the Morey would make him available would constitute a huge red flag to me.

That’s why I was just curious what we thought would make sense in this hypothetical reality where morey is less confident than Houston in either a) Joel’s durability, or b) the supporting cast they could put around Joel in those next 3-4 years.

[Andre Roberstan]

...

Dude...

Age fraud is rampant in Africa and Cameroon in particular:
Cameroon ejected 32 players for failing age tests for a soccer tournament. How Samuel Eto’o is dealing with ‘age cheating’

Cameroon: 52 footballers suspended for “double identity”

Explained: Why Cameroon could be banned from international tournaments due to 'age cheating'

Wilfried Nathan Doualla: Cameroonian midfielder accused of age cheating

Scandal in Africa: Cameroon calls up a 17-year-old... but he doesn't look it

Age Cheating: The Scourge of Africa

Age fraud: How African football is trying to combat it

Age cheating is hurting African football

This is Mohamed Dabone, a "12 year old" prospect playing in Barcelona:



Not saying it is necessarily Embiid's case (certainly doesn't seem that obvious) but there's plenty of reason to take African prospect's age with a very large grain of salt.

This is a can of worms I'd rather we not open here on this forum; it's largely irrelevant to the conversation in any case. Given Baxter Holmes's 2019 breakdown of the effects AAU is having on American player health I'm more worried about the mileage on young guys here than birth certificates in Africa, especially since the NBA's African infrastructure has improved and there's a better development system in place.

Age is only an issue if we're talking pre-NBA. From our perspective as NBA fans it doesn't matter except as it relates to mileage.

[JimmyPlopper]

As a Sixers fan, I would take Sengun for Embiid straight up. If it's possible to get more from the trade, obviously lets do it

[drosestruts]

It's a fun hypotehtical to look at in combination with the rumor that Houston could be interested in Jimmy Butler.

Feel like Butler and Embiid both would love to team up again. It won't happen in Miami or Philly, but would be interesting to imagine a third team pulling off a reunion. Houston could be a team with enough young talent to acquire both.

A team with Butler, Brooks, and Embiid would be amazing from an entertainment perspective