Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[payitforward]

2. Until we see how the assets we received work out (all of them) we have no way to judge this trade.

Minor correction: until one player landed from this trade ends up better than Deni, we can't judge the trade.

But as soon as one of the picks is better than Deni: it's a win.

Oh to be sure!

OTOH, that doesn't necessarily give us a final judgment, since it's always possible that 2 of the players we land turn out better than Deni. How about all 4?

Not suggesting that's going to happen, obviously. But you get my point.

[DCZards]

Where do I begin from there. So first off, more is not better, it's just more. I'll reiterate, light ass return. Don't try to sell me the pipe dream that two seconds (yay, payitfoward like you back), a first that isn't even PORs best pick when we get it 5 years from now,

The Zards own that Portland 2029 FRP now. They don’t “get it 5 years from now" ... which means they can use the pick in a trade at anytime. Maybe for OKC’s third FRP in next year’s draft? Who knows.

The only tangible asset being Carrington who they didn't even know he'd be there. Which begs to say how strategic could their thinking have been? So the one tangible asset, from a horrible draft, they they weren't sure they'd get, that apparently has monster potential because he's tall while having a suspect ability to shoot. As if we haven't seen tall point guards a dime-a-dozen that have never amounted to anything. Oh but, but, but, he's a local product, just like our old friend Juan Dixon, gotta love em. I know all these experts suddenly say he'll be one of the best from the draft class, but I keep asking why wasn't he drafted higher then?

Why was Giannis the 15th pick? Why was Kawhi the 15th pick? Why was Haliburton the 12th pick? The fact that Bub was the 14th pick says nothing about his ability to be an outstanding player…maybe even an all-star like those other three players.

[tontoz]

My guess is that the Wizards had a few guys they were targeting at 14. I don't think it was Bub or bust. Topic almost fell to 14.

[DCZards]

My guess is that the Wizards had a few guys they were targeting at 14. I don't think it was Bub or bust. Topic almost fell to 14.

Yup...I wanted Bub but I was also high on Jared McCain. He went two picks later to the Sixers.

[tontoz]

Watching the first half of the Portland vs GS game now. Deni had a few of those "no soup for you" moments when Wiggins and Kuminga tried to drive on him and ended up getting punked. The Blazers announcers were loving it.

[AFM]

Deni with a performance so bad he should play for the wizards.

[closg00]

A bad Deni night, he will have good ones

[badinage]

I’d be willing to bet that Deni might have been just a little bit distracted by the fact that his country had just that day launched a counter-attack against Iran (and all the implications that come with it).

[payitforward]

Go Deni!

[trast66]

Deni just needs to stay healthy for a couple of years and will be in all time top 20 list for most games played, with no games in playoffs.

The Cronin/Billups regime probably gone soon, so maybe Deni will move again if they can recoup some draft picks.

[The Consiglieri]

The salary on top of his unique attributes (6'9, two way, passing ability, 23 years old) means the trade is more likely than not to be looked at as having been weak compensation. I said before, if he improves moderately on last years numbers, and you pair it with that contract, then we didn't get nearly enough back.

But I'm not going to speak any more on it until the season begins to play out because of course there is some chance he regresses.

My problem with the Bub pick is not that I dislike him. But going from a 6'9 swiss army knife wing to a mostly score first guard is...not really close in terms of the rarity of the asset. But again, perfectly willing to give Bub the chance to show out.

I remember posting about him being our most tradeable asset after we inexplicably didn't move Kuzma last winter, and there were definitely people who felt that was insane, that he was the first core piece and all that. My argument back then was that his prime was set to harm are tank AND that we'd likely spend the bulk of his prime playing out lost seasons in '24, '25, '26 etc. I was for trading him at the time.

My HUGE problem when the trade was announced was pretty simple. This was a special asset on a great cost controlled contract, and we didn't move him for a single blue chip piece. NOT ONE. A pick in the teens in a notoriously ---- draft, a pick a million years from now, and a broken down vet, and some 2's people typically trade for money. Not remotely what I was expecting to get. To be sure, he wasn't some superstar, so I wasn't expecting some mega pay day, but I was expecting at least one elite chip (pick that was commensurate value with a top 5 pick in a draft, either in '24's crappy draft, or likely top 5-10 pick in a future near term draft. Instead we got what felt like a classic, 2 dimes a nickel and a quarter for a dollar deal.

Who liked the deal in this fan base? Definitely felt like three types of fans:

The Majority: Were not Deni believers in the first place.

Slight Minority: Huge Bub C fans.

Small minority: Long term tanking value of losing the only legit player on the roster.

That's I think a part of the reason there's been so much back and forth on this:

The people who didn't rate Deni think this is a perfectly fine payment because they don't think he's much to begin with, and then the rest either really liked Bub, and/or understood (like I did) that Deni was probably a problem for the tank in terms of his ability to block prospects and provide a quality floor and ceiling production level from his versatility etc.

Going forward I definitely think it will look legit bad unless either Carrington turns out to be a top 5ish talent from the class and/or the '29 pick turns into something worthwhile (or Deni face plants).

Will be interesting to think about and consider. I get why they wanted to trade him, I did too, but the comp was just bad, even if Bub hits. It's not good enough to get a pick basically in the teens, another pick a thousand years from now, and a contract for a guy like Deni and is deal, its just not, regardless of what you think of the player, the understood asset value of the player was definitely better than the pieces we got back. At least in my view anyway. I think that's unquestionably true. We may win anyway, or lose, but it doesn't change the raw facts of the deal when it was done. You've got to use better process when determining asset value and utilizing the few pieces of tangible value for the tank and build. In the same way they butchered things with Kuzma. Could have gotten us decent assets 9 months ago. Now? I'm highly skeptical. We ran a HUGE risk that he'd either suck or get injured moving forward. Those are probably my two biggest complaints with the build so far. I like most of what they've done, but the handling of the Kuzma and Deni assets has not been great, and considering those were like 2 of the only 3 assets of any value on the roster in the summer of '23? "Not Great Bob", as Pete said in Mad Men.

[payitforward]

...My HUGE problem when the trade was announced was pretty simple. This was a special asset on a great cost controlled contract, and we didn't move him for a single blue chip piece....

Overstatement on both counts: Deni improved his 4th year in the league, but "special asset" is a substantial stretch; moreover, I don't know what you mean by "blue chip piece." Given we mostly got future assets.

... A pick in the teens in a notoriously ---- draft...

Most people will agree that the top few picks were not among the best. Below an "average" draft if you like. But drafts that are weak overall are few & far between, & I see no reason whatever to think this will have been one.

2011 was a weak draft -- take a look at the top 10. Then look at 15 & 30.

...a pick a million years from now, and a broken down vet, and some 2's people typically trade for money....

Let's not get carried away, shall we? Yes, any asset a few years from now comes at a discount. Goes without saying. But it's still a R1 pick. Nor is Malcolm Brogdon a "broken down vet." & how many R2 picks have been sold for $$$ in the last 5 years? Find me a few, why don't you?

...Not remotely what I was expecting to get....

You're a fan not a GM. Do you really imagine another team offered more, but we turned it down? "Value" = what the market pays. There are no exceptions.

...Who liked the deal in this fan base? Definitely felt like three types of fans:

The Majority: Were not Deni believers in the first place... Slight Minority: Huge Bub C fans... Small minority: Long term tanking value of losing the only legit player on the roster....

You just made all that up.

Deni was my pick in 2020. I wanted him over Halliburton. I was ecstatic when he dropped to us. His first year wasn't very good, & his 2d & 3d years weren't a great deal better -- though by then it had become apparent that he was an outstanding defender.

Last year, Deni's offense bloomed. He shot more & better, & he got to the line more too. Good for him! & that's why he brought two R1 picks, 2 R2 picks, & a player with trade value.

...The people who didn't rate Deni think this is a perfectly fine payment because they don't think he's much to begin with....

Wow! So... you think a guy who's "not much" brings 2 R1 picks, 2 R2 picks, & Malcolm Brogdon. Is that it?

...Going forward I definitely think it will look legit bad unless either Carrington turns out to be a top 5ish talent from the class and/or the '29 pick turns into something worthwhile (or Deni face plants). ... the understood asset value of the player was definitely better than the pieces we got back. At least in my view anyway. I think that's unquestionably true....

So, then, when we made him available why didn't we get substantially better offers? Surely, you don't think we did -- but we just turned them down. Do you?

...You've got to use better process when determining asset value....

??
There's only one process. One & no other -- what the market offers represents what the guy's value is. Period.

...In the same way they butchered things with Kuzma....

No relationship whatever. Please point to where, 9 months ago, you said we should have done that trade.
(Tho of course, it's obvious now that it would have been a good idea!)

[AFM]

Another poor performance. Looking like we sold high so far.

[nate33]

Another poor performance. Looking like we sold high so far.

Interestingly, he still has the highest on court point differential on the team and the second highest on/off rating.

I don't expect him to shoot 29% for the rest of the season.

[AFM]

Another poor performance. Looking like we sold high so far.

Interestingly, he still has the highest on court point differential on the team and the second highest on/off rating.

I don't expect him to shoot 29% for the rest of the season.

Neither do I. But the reaction to this trade has been so baffling that I find myself way more invested in Deni's performance than I should be.

We don't play Portland until Feb 26.

[bsilver]

Deni had trouble finishing round the rim. An old problem we’re familiar with. His defense was very disruptive to the NO big men. Picking them up closely all over the court, which was mentioned several times by the Portland tv commentators.

[Rafael122]

Deni's going to struggle to find anything offensively. He's probably the 4th option on the team behind Simons/Ayton/Grant.

[dckingsfan]

Deni's going to struggle to find anything offensively. He's probably the 4th option on the team behind Simons/Ayton/Grant.

Right now he is the 4th option on offense behind Simons or Henderson/Grant/Ayton. Camara who is playing really well is getting plenty of shots too.

But defensively is where there is a difference. They are the 16th rated defensive team vs. last year where they were 23rd. And that is then helping the offense (10th in pace this year 21st last year).

Deni is shooting .290. Even if he goes back to pre-'24 numbers - he will be a big contributor to their team. My guess is that his shooting percentage rebounds over time with a large sample size (guess this is a duh).

One more thing - this means that the Wizards "probably" gave themselves more ping pong balls given how bad the rookies have looked (in a very small sample size). The trade looks like a good tanking move - but you still have to spin the ping pong balls and not do a repeat of this year and pick the "Sarr".

[dckingsfan]

Another poor performance. Looking like we sold high so far.

Interestingly, he still has the highest on court point differential on the team and the second highest on/off rating.

I don't expect him to shoot 29% for the rest of the season.

Neither do I. But the reaction to this trade has been so baffling that I find myself way more invested in Deni's performance than I should be.

We don't play Portland until Feb 26.

Me too. I am also now following all the bottom dwellers. I am really interested in Portland, Detroit, Brooklyn and surprisingly Utah.

I think there are other wannabees for the ugliest child this year. Also, when I spin tankathon I see the 5th and 6th seeding win often. So, there is that...

[dckingsfan]

Deni had trouble finishing round the rim...

Wait, what? He routinely finishes at .700+ at the rim historically. I fully expect that to come back over the season.