Northwest Exchange (MIN-UTA-DEN)

[Klomp]

MIN Out: Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,312,500)
MIN In: Walker Kessler ($2,965,920)

UTA Out: Walker Kessler ($2,965,920)
UTA In: DaRon Holmes ($3,065,640)

DEN Out: DaRon Holmes ($3,065,640)
DEN In: Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,312,500)

I think technically, Denver needs to send Utah something additional because of the second apron, but I still believe the trade structure is sound. A pick might be exchanged somewhere as well.

Minnesota: Alexander-Walker has been valuable, but the need for more interior defense and rebounding is showing itself.
Denver: Holmes has potential, but they might feel a need for a short-term trade to help them this season.
Utah: An injured, but talented prospect in exchange for a guy who seems is being shopped around.

[Scoot McGroot]

Feels like Utah is owed something here from Minnesota, and maybe a 1st? NAW is nice and all, but he’s expiring and will be unrestricted, while Kessler has this year and next on his rookie deal and then restricted free agency. That holds value.

[babyjax13]

RE your thoughts on balancing: Minnesota needs to at least include a first to turn NAW into Kessler. I like NAW, he is a nice bench player, but he is a UFA and nothing more than a 7th-9th man. Kessler is a solid starter or elite backup already (at 23) still on a rookie deal.

Holmes really does nothing for me. He is only a year younger than Kessler, a much less valuable archetype, and has not shown anything in the NBA. He's also injured and we don't know what he will look like once he recovers. Holmes and a first wouldn't be terrible, but isn't exciting.

[Colbinii]

RE your thoughts on balancing: Minnesota needs to at least include a first to turn NAW into Kessler. I like NAW, he is a nice bench player, but he is a UFA and nothing more than a 7th-9th man. Kessler is a solid starter or elite backup already (at 23) still on a rookie deal.

Holmes really does nothing for me. He is only a year younger than Kessler, a much less valuable archetype, and has not shown anything in the NBA. He's also injured and we don't know what he will look like once he recovers. Holmes and a first wouldn't be terrible, but isn't exciting.

NAW is a 15-20 minute guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are worth 3-4 2nds, no?

What's Kessler worth? I doubt anyone gives more than a late 1st for him.

[SkyHook]

I'm disinclined to move Kessler, but might reconsider for a high upside return. Holmes isn't it.

[Colbinii]

I'm disinclined to move Kessler, but might reconsider for a high upside return. Holmes isn't it.

And nobody is giving a high-up side return for a low-upside center prospect.

What likely ends up happening is Utah commits Okongwu money to Kessler.

[babyjax13]

RE your thoughts on balancing: Minnesota needs to at least include a first to turn NAW into Kessler. I like NAW, he is a nice bench player, but he is a UFA and nothing more than a 7th-9th man. Kessler is a solid starter or elite backup already (at 23) still on a rookie deal.

Holmes really does nothing for me. He is only a year younger than Kessler, a much less valuable archetype, and has not shown anything in the NBA. He's also injured and we don't know what he will look like once he recovers. Holmes and a first wouldn't be terrible, but isn't exciting.

NAW is a 15-20 minute guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are worth 3-4 2nds, no?

What's Kessler worth? I doubt anyone gives more than a late 1st for him.

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

[SkyHook]

I'm disinclined to move Kessler, but might reconsider for a high upside return. Holmes isn't it.

And nobody is giving a high-up side return for a low-upside center prospect.

What likely ends up happening is Utah commits Okongwu money to Kessler.

Sounds great. Happy to keep him, especially at +/- MLE money.

[Colbinii]

I'm disinclined to move Kessler, but might reconsider for a high upside return. Holmes isn't it.

And nobody is giving a high-up side return for a low-upside center prospect.

What likely ends up happening is Utah commits Okongwu money to Kessler.

Sounds great. Happy to keep him, especially at +/- MLE money.

I know it's great. Locking up low-end starters for low-end starter money is what fan bases love.

[Colbinii]

RE your thoughts on balancing: Minnesota needs to at least include a first to turn NAW into Kessler. I like NAW, he is a nice bench player, but he is a UFA and nothing more than a 7th-9th man. Kessler is a solid starter or elite backup already (at 23) still on a rookie deal.

Holmes really does nothing for me. He is only a year younger than Kessler, a much less valuable archetype, and has not shown anything in the NBA. He's also injured and we don't know what he will look like once he recovers. Holmes and a first wouldn't be terrible, but isn't exciting.

NAW is a 15-20 minute guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are worth 3-4 2nds, no?

What's Kessler worth? I doubt anyone gives more than a late 1st for him.

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

[SkyHook]

And nobody is giving a high-up side return for a low-upside center prospect.

What likely ends up happening is Utah commits Okongwu money to Kessler.

Sounds great. Happy to keep him, especially at +/- MLE money.

I know it's great. Locking up low-end starters for low-end starter money is what fan bases love.

We have a difference of opinion. I respect your right to be wrong.

[babyjax13]

NAW is a 15-20 minute guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are worth 3-4 2nds, no?

What's Kessler worth? I doubt anyone gives more than a late 1st for him.

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

NAW for Kessler makes them worse? We had NAW on our team, I was pretty insistent Minnesota would like him and they did, I've seen him play since. He's nowhere near as good as Kessler - I see no reasonable argument that trading for him makes them worse now. I could see preferring not to tie up future draft capital, etc.

[Colbinii]

Sounds great. Happy to keep him, especially at +/- MLE money.

I know it's great. Locking up low-end starters for low-end starter money is what fan bases love.

We have a difference of opinion. I respect your right to be wrong.

You think Kessler is clearly a Top 20 Center?

[Colbinii]

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

NAW for Kessler makes them worse? We had NAW on our team, I was pretty insistent Minnesota would like him and they did, I've seen him play since. He's nowhere near as good as Kessler - I see no reasonable argument that trading for him makes them worse now. I could see preferring not to tie up future draft capital, etc.

NAW is better in some ways, notably he has positional flexibility, he is a Top 15-ish perimeter defender in the NBA and he knocks down the corner 3.

So yeah, Minnesota, whose guard play in Conley has been terrible thus far and has glaring weaknesses as a post-season Point Guard, trading NAW for Kessler is post-season suicide.

[SkyHook]

I know it's great. Locking up low-end starters for low-end starter money is what fan bases love.

We have a difference of opinion. I respect your right to be wrong.

You think Kessler is clearly a Top 20 Center?

In his rookie season (3rd in ROY) Kessler was a top-10 impact center by several metrics. His sophomore season wasn't great, top-25 to -35 depending on the metric. Which player is he? Likely somewhere in between, but I'd be willing to bet on him being closer to 10 than 30. If you see it differently that's fine, but I'm in no hurry to move on from him; certainly not for the injured DaRon Holmes who doesn't impress.

Holmes is at his best in pick-and-roll situations. He makes an impact as a screener and finisher in those plays, where his mobility is also above average for his size. He doesn’t have the most polished offensive game, and his shooting might be subpar at the next level despite experiencing improvements over his last college season. Still, he has the quickness and athleticism to be an asset near the rim as a lob threat and finisher, something he’ll need to enhance at the next level due to his struggles creating his own shot. Holmes also can be an asset defensively due to his ability to defend multiple positions. But he won’t be a difference-maker on that end of the court. He projects to play as a center at the next level, and his 6-foot-9 frame makes him undersized at the position. His positioning on defense also needs some work, and his reactions at the college level were often a bit slow when he wasn’t playing deep near the rim. That will only get worse, given the speed of the NBA game.

[Godaddycurse]

NAW is a 15-20 minute guy for a playoff team.

Those guys are worth 3-4 2nds, no?

What's Kessler worth? I doubt anyone gives more than a late 1st for him.

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

Can minny afford NAW after this year? I suspect he will walk and OP clearly makes them better in the future

[Colbinii]

We've had this discussion before. I think he's worth two late firsts or a late lotto/mid first pretty easily given his age, contract, and productivity. So, IMO, significantly different from NAW's value.

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

Can minny afford NAW after this year? I suspect he will walk and OP clearly makes them better in the future

How would paying a back-up Center $15-20 Million AAV playing 15 MPG the future?

[Godaddycurse]

I see.

Unfortunately this trade makes Minnesota a worse team now and likely in the future, which isn't a direction a Top team in the association will take as a direction.

Can minny afford NAW after this year? I suspect he will walk and OP clearly makes them better in the future

How would paying a back-up Center $15-20 Million AAV playing 15 MPG the future?

He's cheap for 1 more year before getting a new contract. He might be the eventual gobert replacement too. I think thats pretty good compared to nothing (after naw walks)

[Colbinii]

Can minny afford NAW after this year? I suspect he will walk and OP clearly makes them better in the future

How would paying a back-up Center $15-20 Million AAV playing 15 MPG the future?

He's cheap for 1 more year before getting a new contract. He might be the eventual gobert replacement too. I think thats pretty good compared to nothing (after naw walks)

I'm not sure NAW walks though. How much more is he going to get than what Minnesota can offer on the open market?

[Godaddycurse]

How would paying a back-up Center $15-20 Million AAV playing 15 MPG the future?

He's cheap for 1 more year before getting a new contract. He might be the eventual gobert replacement too. I think thats pretty good compared to nothing (after naw walks)

I'm not sure NAW walks though. How much more is he going to get than what Minnesota can offer on the open market?

I think he will get MLE money on the market and more importantly for him, a bigger role, possibly starting. He is locked as the 8th man right now in minny