Is Jalen Green finally living up to his potential

[Shock Defeat]

It's only been 5 games but he's averaging 27.6 ppg and has led the team to a 3-2 start. Clearly becoming the #1 option and outplayed Luka in the 4th quarter last night.

[HotelVitale]

Didn't he have a pretty blistering 5-6 week stretch last season? Feel like I heard lots of people talking about it, and how legit it seemed.

[tsherkin]

Didn't he have a pretty blistering 5-6 week stretch last season? Feel like I heard lots of people talking about it, and how legit it seemed.

He's shooting over 40% on over 10 3PA/g. Hasn't shot 35% on a season yet, shot under 35% each of the past 2 seasons. Nowhere near that volume, either.

Fair to say he has the normalization hammer coming to him in the near future.

[UcanUwill]

Didn't he have a pretty blistering 5-6 week stretch last season? Feel like I heard lots of people talking about it, and how legit it seemed.

Yes, he was superb when Sengun went down, but it was indeed March.

[HotelVitale]

Didn't he have a pretty blistering 5-6 week stretch last season? Feel like I heard lots of people talking about it, and how legit it seemed.

He's shooting over 40% on over 10 3PA/g. Hasn't shot 35% on a season yet, shot under 35% each of the past 2 seasons. Nowhere near that volume, either. Fair to say he has the normalization hammer coming to him in the near future.

Don't think that's totally fair, 22 year olds can make leaps in efficiency and aren't locked into what they did as teenagers. Plus he's got a good stroke and obviously took a lot of bad shots earlier in his career so both those bode well for him. Looks like he also shot 41% on about 10 shots per game for the month of March last year, on his way to about 28ppg on 61% TS.

I'd bet against him shooting 40%+ but I don't think there's any reason to be cynical about his chances of making a leap. (Also the differences between 35% and like 38% is pretty minuscule, and that's not why he's been good overall.)

[anotherhomer]

i think he's living up to his potential as a scorer

[tsherkin]

Don't think that's totally fair, 22 year olds can make leaps in efficiency and aren't locked into what they did as teenagers. Plus he's got a good stroke and obviously took a lot of bad shots earlier in his career so both those bode well for him. Looks like he also shot 41% on about 10 shots per game for the month of March last year, on his way to about 28ppg on 61% TS.

I'd bet against him shooting 40%+ but I don't think there's any reason to be cynical about his chances of making a leap. (Also the differences between 35% and like 38% is pretty minuscule, and that's not why he's been good overall.)

I didn't say there's no chance of him taking a leap.

I said that the guy who has three reasonably full seasons of around 7 3PA/g isn't gonna suddenly go from 33-34% to 40%+ on nearly 11 3PA/g, and that he's going to normalize soon. He has never been seen as an elite shooter. He isn't elite at the line. He isn't particularly good anywhere outside of the RA.

It's quite discordant, and would be one of the wildest leaps in shooting in league history.

Now, could he settle into something in the middle? Sure. But that wasn't really what I was addressing.

[MoreyWins]

i think he's living up to his potential as a scorer

He's exceeded expectations as a defender, too. He's a two-way player.

[HotelVitale]

Don't think that's totally fair, 22 year olds can make leaps in efficiency and aren't locked into what they did as teenagers. Plus he's got a good stroke and obviously took a lot of bad shots earlier in his career so both those bode well for him. Looks like he also shot 41% on about 10 shots per game for the month of March last year, on his way to about 28ppg on 61% TS.

I'd bet against him shooting 40%+ but I don't think there's any reason to be cynical about his chances of making a leap. (Also the differences between 35% and like 38% is pretty minuscule, and that's not why he's been good overall.)

I didn't say there's no chance of him taking a leap. I said that the guy who has three reasonably full seasons of around 7 3PA/g isn't gonna suddenly go from 33-34% to 40%+ on nearly 11 3PA/g, and that he's going to normalize soon. He has never been seen as an elite shooter. He isn't elite at the line. He isn't particularly good anywhere outside of the RA.

It's quite discordant, and would be one of the wildest leaps in shooting in league history.

Now, could he settle into something in the middle? Sure. But that wasn't really what I was addressing.

Won't disagree with the takeaway, but seemed like the energy behind the first post was 'chill, he'll be back to unimpressive inefficiency soon.' I was just saying that seems too harsh-- he looks like a good shooter and always has, and he can get off pretty good looks for himself with ease. I think him taking better shots plus making a normal-ish age 21-22 leap can have him in good shape. (And you can definitely shoot 80% from the line and be a quite good 3pt shooter.)

[scrabbarista]

Yeah, he finally is.

That stretch last season was actually top-five-player production, and I am including defense. The major caveats were that it was only four or five weeks and it was against a slew of extra-putrid teams.

He has been carrying Houston in the last eight minutes of close games this season, often with Sengun watching from the bench to give him room to operate. No one can stay in front of Green if he has space to accelerate into.

But the thing that has me more excited than anything is how he's defended since the end of last season. I always knew the offensive upside was there, but I had big doubts about defense that he's gone a long way toward alleviating.

He is already starting to look like a borderline All-Star, and he has tons of room to grow beyond that/this point.

Maybe I can summarize this way: I've never completely abandoned my take that he was the best prospect between he, Mobley, and Cade, and I feel better about that take now than I have since they came into the league. EDIT: To be clear, I'm not saying I'd take Green over those guys; I'm saying I haven't given up on the possibility that he could ultimately end up being better than them.

[tsherkin]

Won't disagree with the takeaway, but seemed like the energy behind the first post was 'chill, he'll be back to unimpressive inefficiency soon.' I was just saying that seems too harsh-- he looks like a good shooter and always has, and he can get off pretty good looks for himself with ease. I think him taking better shots plus making a normal-ish age 21-22 leap can have him in good shape. (And you can definitely shoot 80% from the line and be a quite good 3pt shooter.)

I haven't watched a Rockets game this year, so I can't speak to his broader play much.

You can be an 80% FT shooter and be a pretty good 3pt shooter, for sure. But 10+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P is pretty rarefied territory as a specific marker. That's Steph/Dame territory. Literally the only players to do that for 50+ games are Dame (once), Klay (once) and Steph 6 times.

Wherefore my skepticism.

Where he lands once normalization occurs is anyone's guess. 36-37%? All the way back to 34%? Unsure, but it won't be at his current level sooner rather than later.

After 5 games, his averages are very specifically affected by the Spurs game (7/13 from 3) and the Memphis game (4/8). He opened the year 5/15, shot 3/10 versus the Spurs in the first game, and 3/8 against Dallas.

So we'll see where he goes as the sample increases, you know? It's just the specifics of his current performance (and of course, how that affects his raw PPG) against which I'm cautioning. Almost 50% of his shots are 3s right now. And remember, he took 1617 3PA prior to this season, and shot 33.7%. Another contributing factor.

We'll see how it goes.

[HotelVitale]

Won't disagree with the takeaway, but seemed like the energy behind the first post was 'chill, he'll be back to unimpressive inefficiency soon.' I was just saying that seems too harsh-- he looks like a good shooter and always has, and he can get off pretty good looks for himself with ease. I think him taking better shots plus making a normal-ish age 21-22 leap can have him in good shape. (And you can definitely shoot 80% from the line and be a quite good 3pt shooter.)

I haven't watched a Rockets game this year, so I can't speak to his broader play much.

You can be an 80% FT shooter and be a pretty good 3pt shooter, for sure. But 10+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P is pretty rarefied territory as a specific marker. That's Steph/Dame territory. Literally the only players to do that for 50+ games are Dame (once), Klay (once) and Steph 6 times.

Wherefore my skepticism.

Where he lands once normalization occurs is anyone's guess. 36-37%? All the way back to 34%? Unsure, but it won't be at his current level sooner rather than later.

After 5 games, his averages are very specifically affected by the Spurs game (7/13 from 3) and the Memphis game (4/8). He opened the year 5/15, shot 3/10 versus the Spurs in the first game, and 3/8 against Dallas.

So we'll see where he goes as the sample increases, you know? It's just the specifics of his current performance (and of course, how that affects his raw PPG) against which I'm cautioning. Almost 50% of his shots are 3s right now. And remember, he took 1617 3PA prior to this season, and shot 33.7%. Another contributing factor.

We'll see how it goes.

Sure, but if he shot 36-37% instead of 41% so far he'd still have made a huge leap and be playing like a star. (He'd be averaging literally like one pt less per game.) Just saying that's the bigger news here than him shooting 41% from 3, or at least that's what I think needs lifting up.

[One_and_Done]

We'll see. It's very early.

[tsherkin]

Sure, but if he shot 36-37% instead of 41% so far he'd still have made a huge leap and be playing like a star. (He'd be averaging literally like one pt less per game.) Just saying that's the bigger news here than him shooting 41% from 3, or at least that's what I think needs lifting up.

Sure. But I would also expect his raw shooting volume to come down, because he actually hasn't been spamming at that volume every game. Of course, if he "just" turns into an efficient 24 ppg scorer, that's certainly not bad for the Rockets. He'll be supremely high-variance player regardless, but if he maintains anything like this, it'll be pretty solid for Houston.

[hardenASG13]

I just posted about this in the suprise/disappointment thread today. Lots of people here are going to have to eat their words on Green. Hes gotten better going to the basket and from deep, which are connected because he's going by his defender if he's crowded, and is now a nightmare when he does. Give him space and he can hit 3s in bunches. Star level guard now with his body/game maturing, people judged him on percentages when he was a twig and basically came into the league out of high school (g league ignite hasn't shown a ton in their ability to develop guys, probably a good thing they are folding).

[hippesthippo]

Didn't he have a pretty blistering 5-6 week stretch last season? Feel like I heard lots of people talking about it, and how legit it seemed.

He's had several 5 game stretches like this.

[Shock Defeat]

Won't disagree with the takeaway, but seemed like the energy behind the first post was 'chill, he'll be back to unimpressive inefficiency soon.' I was just saying that seems too harsh-- he looks like a good shooter and always has, and he can get off pretty good looks for himself with ease. I think him taking better shots plus making a normal-ish age 21-22 leap can have him in good shape. (And you can definitely shoot 80% from the line and be a quite good 3pt shooter.)

I haven't watched a Rockets game this year, so I can't speak to his broader play much.

You can be an 80% FT shooter and be a pretty good 3pt shooter, for sure. But 10+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P is pretty rarefied territory as a specific marker. That's Steph/Dame territory. Literally the only players to do that for 50+ games are Dame (once), Klay (once) and Steph 6 times.

Wherefore my skepticism.

Where he lands once normalization occurs is anyone's guess. 36-37%? All the way back to 34%? Unsure, but it won't be at his current level sooner rather than later.

After 5 games, his averages are very specifically affected by the Spurs game (7/13 from 3) and the Memphis game (4/8). He opened the year 5/15, shot 3/10 versus the Spurs in the first game, and 3/8 against Dallas.

So we'll see where he goes as the sample increases, you know? It's just the specifics of his current performance (and of course, how that affects his raw PPG) against which I'm cautioning. Almost 50% of his shots are 3s right now. And remember, he took 1617 3PA prior to this season, and shot 33.7%. Another contributing factor.

We'll see how it goes.

As someone who tries to watch every single game, I can say that what excites me about Green is not his shooting percentages. It's the fact that he's able to contribute to winning and not be a net negative when his shot isn't falling. Last night he shot 9-21 but was still an important player for us down the stretch. He's getting baskets when we need him to get them. That rarely happened at all before. Sure he would have games where he'd shoot well and score 30+, but in games where he didn't shoot well, he was kind of unplayable.

[UcanUwill]

We had that thread that asked who are top 3 Rockets young players, and I was one of very few who even voted Green. Maybe I am jumping the gun, but I think people overthink this sometimes, calling him Monta Ellis and all, Green is the only one there that really has potential to be 29 ppg. superstar type player, Green and Sengun are clearly their 2 best young players IMO, who is the third is the debate to have.

[tsherkin]

[
As someone who tries to watch every single game, I can say that what excites me about Green is not his shooting percentages. It's the fact that he's able to contribute to winning and not be a net negative when his shot isn't falling. Last night he shot 9-21 but was still an important player for us down the stretch. He's getting baskets when we need him to get them. That rarely happened at all before. Sure he would have games where he'd shoot well and score 30+, but in games where he didn't shoot well, he was kind of unplayable.

That's good to hear. It's always best when talent proliferates in the league.

[XTC]

Won't disagree with the takeaway, but seemed like the energy behind the first post was 'chill, he'll be back to unimpressive inefficiency soon.' I was just saying that seems too harsh-- he looks like a good shooter and always has, and he can get off pretty good looks for himself with ease. I think him taking better shots plus making a normal-ish age 21-22 leap can have him in good shape. (And you can definitely shoot 80% from the line and be a quite good 3pt shooter.)

I haven't watched a Rockets game this year, so I can't speak to his broader play much.

You can be an 80% FT shooter and be a pretty good 3pt shooter, for sure. But 10+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P is pretty rarefied territory as a specific marker. That's Steph/Dame territory. Literally the only players to do that for 50+ games are Dame (once), Klay (once) and Steph 6 times.

Wherefore my skepticism.

Where he lands once normalization occurs is anyone's guess. 36-37%? All the way back to 34%? Unsure, but it won't be at his current level sooner rather than later.

After 5 games, his averages are very specifically affected by the Spurs game (7/13 from 3) and the Memphis game (4/8). He opened the year 5/15, shot 3/10 versus the Spurs in the first game, and 3/8 against Dallas.

So we'll see where he goes as the sample increases, you know? It's just the specifics of his current performance (and of course, how that affects his raw PPG) against which I'm cautioning. Almost 50% of his shots are 3s right now. And remember, he took 1617 3PA prior to this season, and shot 33.7%. Another contributing factor.

We'll see how it goes.

The kid is still only 22.

The last 24 games of last season season he averaged 25/6/4 on 37% shooting from 3 on 9.5 attempts. Even if he can maintain 36-38 percent on 9/10 attempts per game, that's still elite. Is it totally inconceivable a 22 year old improved, and he's building off his success late last season?

Green probably has some of the highest potential in the league IMO. If he averaged 30 in the near future it would honestly not surprise me.