Is Jalen Green finally living up to his potential

[tsherkin]

The kid is still only 22.

The last 24 games of last season season he averaged 25/6/4 on 37% shooting from 3 on 9.5 attempts. Even if he can maintain 36-38 percent on 9/10 attempts per game, that's still elite. Is it totally inconceivable a 22 year old improved, and he's building off his success late last season?

None of this is particularly related to what I said. I wasn't denying his capacity to improve. I was noting the short sample, the large change in both efficiency and volume, and the general unlikelihood that those specifics would maintain, particularly coupled to the past 3 seasons of his career. Might he be improving as a shooter this year? Yes, it's quite possible. Might he be improving that much? No, that's historically unlikely. But whether he totally regresses or finds some middle ground is a whole separate question, especially after 5 games.

[Wargreymon]

They need to get rid of that inefficent chucker FVV for Green to fully unleash his potential and become a dynamic 30 piece a night scorer.

[DCasey91]

I'm more than ready to put him back on the list. He's put on noticeable size and the confidence is showing.

Could be the one to get MIP

[Hoop Hunter]

He's a very good young player. His growth as a player has been steady. He's an elite athlete that can make some unbelievable plays. His BBQ is getting better, he makes smarter basketball plays. That's what needs to improve for him to become all he can be. He could become a top 10 player in the league.

If Houston has a good record come All-Star Game time he may make it.

[Godymas]

2021 draft was basically what the 2023 draft was. It was supposed to be "cannot miss multiple amazing talents" obviously not a Wemby headline, but the idea was that if you got Cade, Green, Mobley, or Suggs you were getting a sure thing. Well all of the top 5 picks are basically maxed or near maxed guys who have made names for themselves are looking to be, or have already made, All Stars.

[anotherhomer]

i think he's living up to his potential as a scorer

He's exceeded expectations as a defender, too. He's a two-way player.

you lucky that coach became available

[zimpy27]

He's had a great start.

He's at league average efficiency for scoring, so if he sustains that he's living up.

If he falls off then I don't think he's up to his potential yet.

[kane0801]

Got benched in 4th quarter with Sengun due to poor defense

[zimpy27]

The kid is still only 22.

The last 24 games of last season season he averaged 25/6/4 on 37% shooting from 3 on 9.5 attempts. Even if he can maintain 36-38 percent on 9/10 attempts per game, that's still elite. Is it totally inconceivable a 22 year old improved, and he's building off his success late last season?

None of this is particularly related to what I said. I wasn't denying his capacity to improve. I was noting the short sample, the large change in both efficiency and volume, and the general unlikelihood that those specifics would maintain, particularly coupled to the past 3 seasons of his career. Might he be improving as a shooter this year? Yes, it's quite possible. Might he be improving that much? No, that's historically unlikely. But whether he totally regresses or finds some middle ground is a whole separate question, especially after 5 games.

And now after 6 games he's at 54% TS, which he's averaged around the last 3 seasons....

Just highlights how tiny the sample was that one game could undo it.

[California Gold]

The benefit is his age and that he still has time to develop and overcome his chucking. With that said, it's early and I'm not much of a fan of his style of play as a whole for his career thus far. He needs to become a SMARTER player on offense. Defense? Yeah he isn't great at that either. Basically - I don't think we're winning a title with him being our best player. Maybe if he has a sidekick who is better than him it's possible.

Almost reminds me of a poor man's Harden and I didn't like Harden's style of play either but at least you could win games with Harden during the regular season.

[hippesthippo]

As I said before... he's had several 5 game stretches like this. Only to **** the bed.

[The-Power]

The Rockets defense and energy with Brooks, Amen, Eason and Smith Jr. plus another non-negative defender can be quite overwhelming. Green needs to score at a high level to be the best choice to pair with them. He did so to start the season but that won't be the case every game.

[Scoots1994]

2021 draft was basically what the 2023 draft was. It was supposed to be "cannot miss multiple amazing talents" obviously not a Wemby headline, but the idea was that if you got Cade, Green, Mobley, or Suggs you were getting a sure thing. Well all of the top 5 picks are basically maxed or near maxed guys who have made names for themselves are looking to be, or have already made, All Stars.

Cade, Green, and Suggs have underperformed expectations.

[kane0801]

2021 draft was basically what the 2023 draft was. It was supposed to be "cannot miss multiple amazing talents" obviously not a Wemby headline, but the idea was that if you got Cade, Green, Mobley, or Suggs you were getting a sure thing. Well all of the top 5 picks are basically maxed or near maxed guys who have made names for themselves are looking to be, or have already made, All Stars.

Cade, Green, and Suggs have underperformed expectations.

Suggs breakout this season

[Godymas]

2021 draft was basically what the 2023 draft was. It was supposed to be "cannot miss multiple amazing talents" obviously not a Wemby headline, but the idea was that if you got Cade, Green, Mobley, or Suggs you were getting a sure thing. Well all of the top 5 picks are basically maxed or near maxed guys who have made names for themselves are looking to be, or have already made, All Stars.

Cade, Green, and Suggs have underperformed expectations.

When Suggs joined I believe KoC or Lowe said "oh he could be like a new age Jrue Holiday"

well I'd say Jrue is better offensively, but I just saw what Suggs is doing this year and good lord is he balling out of control. The advanced stats love him too. He is not underperforming expectations. The idea was he was a more polished guy of all the bunch, he actually took just as long to break out as Cade, but now that he's breaking out he's really damn good.

Cade and Green are breaking out this year but Cade was a monster last year too, just Detroit was a travesty.

[Scoots1994]

2021 draft was basically what the 2023 draft was. It was supposed to be "cannot miss multiple amazing talents" obviously not a Wemby headline, but the idea was that if you got Cade, Green, Mobley, or Suggs you were getting a sure thing. Well all of the top 5 picks are basically maxed or near maxed guys who have made names for themselves are looking to be, or have already made, All Stars.

Cade, Green, and Suggs have underperformed expectations.

When Suggs joined I believe KoC or Lowe said "oh he could be like a new age Jrue Holiday"

well I'd say Jrue is better offensively, but I just saw what Suggs is doing this year and good lord is he balling out of control. The advanced stats love him too. He is not underperforming expectations. The idea was he was a more polished guy of all the bunch, he actually took just as long to break out as Cade, but now that he's breaking out he's really damn good.

Cade and Green are breaking out this year but Cade was a monster last year too, just Detroit was a travesty.

I think we have different definitions for "monster". They are not bad players for sure, but we're in the 4th year of their careers and they were touted as star players out the gate.

Green and Suggs contract situations also reflects that they have underperformed.

[ConSarnit]

The kid is still only 22.

The last 24 games of last season season he averaged 25/6/4 on 37% shooting from 3 on 9.5 attempts. Even if he can maintain 36-38 percent on 9/10 attempts per game, that's still elite. Is it totally inconceivable a 22 year old improved, and he's building off his success late last season?

None of this is particularly related to what I said. I wasn't denying his capacity to improve. I was noting the short sample, the large change in both efficiency and volume, and the general unlikelihood that those specifics would maintain, particularly coupled to the past 3 seasons of his career. Might he be improving as a shooter this year? Yes, it's quite possible. Might he be improving that much? No, that's historically unlikely. But whether he totally regresses or finds some middle ground is a whole separate question, especially after 5 games.

And now after 6 games he's at 54% TS, which he's averaged around the last 3 seasons....

Just highlights how tiny the sample was that one game could undo it.

Ast% down from last year. Reb% down from last year. FTR down from last year. Shooting 41% on 2pt fga. TS% now lower than last year. All of this “he’s made the leap” talk is based on making 3’s at way above his career average. If that dips (as has already started) he’s the same guy as last year.

Green can still become a good player but this is definitely a case of “don’t use 4 game sample sizes”

[Godymas]

Cade, Green, and Suggs have underperformed expectations.

When Suggs joined I believe KoC or Lowe said "oh he could be like a new age Jrue Holiday"

well I'd say Jrue is better offensively, but I just saw what Suggs is doing this year and good lord is he balling out of control. The advanced stats love him too. He is not underperforming expectations. The idea was he was a more polished guy of all the bunch, he actually took just as long to break out as Cade, but now that he's breaking out he's really damn good.

Cade and Green are breaking out this year but Cade was a monster last year too, just Detroit was a travesty.

I think we have different definitions for "monster". They are not bad players for sure, but we're in the 4th year of their careers and they were touted as star players out the gate.

Green and Suggs contract situations also reflects that they have underperformed.

look at the #s Steph Curry put up at year 4 in his career. Look at the #s Jokic put up at year 4 in his career. Look at the numbers Giannis put up at year 4 in his career. Look at the numbers SGA put up at year 4 in his career. NBA players take longer to develop. The game has many different elements. It is very rare for a young guy to be immediately impactful, only generational talents get it done like that. The numbers that Cade and Green put up today in year 4 are not that far off from any of the guys I just named.

Imagine saying "Steph Curry's contract situation reflects that he's underperformed" after he got that $44 million extension. For comparison. Blake Griffin signed a 5 year $95 million deal after his rookie was up.

[OkcSinceSGA]

I mean IMO he showed last year superstar, not just all star potential. Not MVP tier, but lower level superstar of top 6-12 player in the league. So well, I do not think that this level of shooting is quite sustainable, I do think he’s going to take a big leap

[tsherkin]

I mean IMO he showed last year superstar, not just all star potential. Not MVP tier, but lower level superstar of top 6-12 player in the league. So well, I do not think that this level of shooting is quite sustainable, I do think he’s going to take a big leap

So we have very different definitions of "superstar" if you think it includes guys who aren't actually MVP tier.

For me, it's hard to look at a 20/5/3.5 season without defensive dominance or elite anything and call that "show[ing] superstar potential."

He was hot in March on about 9.5 3PA/g. That happens when you're shooting in volume. He was rocking .238 FTr, and shot over 56% inside the arc. This from a dude who hasn't shot 50% inside the arc since his rookie season. He was up over 40% from 3, again, from a guy who is a career 33.9% 3P shooter.

So you can see where the skepticism comes from. A hot run for 15 games or so from 3 doesn't mean that much. Especially on outsized volume.