Is Jalen Green finally living up to his potential

[zimpy27]

I mean IMO he showed last year superstar, not just all star potential. Not MVP tier, but lower level superstar of top 6-12 player in the league. So well, I do not think that this level of shooting is quite sustainable, I do think he’s going to take a big leap

So we have very different definitions of "superstar" if you think it includes guys who aren't actually MVP tier.

For me, it's hard to look at a 20/5/3.5 season without defensive dominance or elite anything and call that "show[ing] superstar potential."

He was hot in March on about 9.5 3PA/g. That happens when you're shooting in volume. He was rocking .238 FTr, and shot over 56% inside the arc. This from a dude who hasn't shot 50% inside the arc since his rookie season. He was up over 40% from 3, again, from a guy who is a career 33.9% 3P shooter.

So you can see where the skepticism comes from. A hot run for 15 games or so from 3 doesn't mean that much. Especially on outsized volume.

Yeah I can't believe we are still overrating players because they put up shot volume.

50% of the league could put up the number of shots that Jalen is with the efficiency he is managing. He's an average player with an elite physical profile that you pay more for because of potential.

I just don't understand why the Rockets coaching allow him to take this many shots. He must be amazing in practice.

[tsherkin]

Yeah I can't believe we are still overrating players because they put up shot volume.

50% of the league could put up the number of shots that Jalen is with the efficiency he is managing. He's an average player with an elite physical profile that you pay more for because of potential.

I just don't understand why the Rockets coaching allow him to take this many shots. He must be amazing in practice.

They may be exploring their options to move beyond Sengun, or otherwise trying to inflate trade potential or just see what their asset can do. It is early yet, after all.

[KOA]

Just goes to show how small of a sample size this was using. After last nights game, he’s down to 24 ppg at 40% FG. Rockets will regret that contract, Jordan Poole 2.0

[OkcSinceSGA]

I mean IMO he showed last year superstar, not just all star potential. Not MVP tier, but lower level superstar of top 6-12 player in the league. So well, I do not think that this level of shooting is quite sustainable, I do think he’s going to take a big leap

So we have very different definitions of "superstar" if you think it includes guys who aren't actually MVP tier.

For me, it's hard to look at a 20/5/3.5 season without defensive dominance or elite anything and call that "show[ing] superstar potential."

He was hot in March on about 9.5 3PA/g. That happens when you're shooting in volume. He was rocking .238 FTr, and shot over 56% inside the arc. This from a dude who hasn't shot 50% inside the arc since his rookie season. He was up over 40% from 3, again, from a guy who is a career 33.9% 3P shooter.

So you can see where the skepticism comes from. A hot run for 15 games or so from 3 doesn't mean that much. Especially on outsized volume.

Not sure how many times we need to go over this one, but yes my bar isn’t as high for superstar. To me, a superstar is a player of the caliber who’s A. Consistently elite and B. Any given series can be the best player in a series, especially deeper in the playoffs. When you get to the top 12 ish players… you can have the 9th best player dominate the MVP in a playoff series. There isn’t the gap you make it out to be.

I usually separate into two tiers though anyway. MVP tier: Jokic, SGA, Luka, Embiid, Giannis (Tatum to me shifts between this tier and next one down). Then you have 6-12 or so… where any given season those guys can move up or down 5 spots. Think Kawhi, KD, Curry, LeBron, Kyrie, AD etc. Any of these guys can dominate a guy in the MVP tier in any given series.

You’re comfortable if AD or Kawhi crushes say Luka or Giannis in a series saying that one isn’t a superstar etc?

That’s why it’s not so black and white to me. I think at any given time right now we have 10-13 or so superstars.

[tsherkin]

Not sure how many times we need to go over this one, but yes my bar isn’t as high for superstar.

Probably whenever we come into a thread together, because I tend not to remember super-specific details about every poster's positions

To me, a superstar is a player of the caliber who’s A. Consistently elite and B. Any given series can be the best player in a series, especially deeper in the playoffs. When you get to the top 12 ish players… you can have the 9th best player dominate the MVP in a playoff series. There isn’t the gap you make it out to be.

I mean, there is. There are some guys who are very specifically and clearly above others. And it's typically team-related when the sort of disparity you're discussing occurs in team results.

You’re comfortable if AD or Kawhi crushes say Luka or Giannis in a series saying that one isn’t a superstar etc?

AD wouldn't really be crushing Luka personally. They don't even match up together. But for health, we might discuss Davis as a superstar, but he tends to be limited by health. Kawhi is also very definitely a superstar-level player, but also limited by health. So again, not really sure why you would use those examples.

That’s why it’s not so black and white to me. I think at any given time right now we have 10-13 or so superstars.

Okay, we definitely disagree on that, but that's less salient.

Let's circle back to Jalen Green. He has, at no point in his career, shown the level of ability which would put him into a tier with the guys we're speaking of here. Kawhi, Luka, Giannis, SGA, Jokic, Embiid... he's nothing like them. He's had a shade over a dozen games of hot shooting from 3 in volume at WILD odds with his career numbers. That's... it, really. That's not MVP-threatening play at all. He hasn't shown the sort of impact or ability you see from that caliber of player. And 15 games is such a small sample to begin with that you can drawn essentially nothing of value from that.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Not sure how many times we need to go over this one, but yes my bar isn’t as high for superstar.

Probably whenever we come into a thread together, because I tend not to remember super-specific details about every poster's positions

To me, a superstar is a player of the caliber who’s A. Consistently elite and B. Any given series can be the best player in a series, especially deeper in the playoffs. When you get to the top 12 ish players… you can have the 9th best player dominate the MVP in a playoff series. There isn’t the gap you make it out to be.

I mean, there is. There are some guys who are very specifically and clearly above others. And it's typically team-related when the sort of disparity you're discussing occurs in team results.

You’re comfortable if AD or Kawhi crushes say Luka or Giannis in a series saying that one isn’t a superstar etc?

AD wouldn't really be crushing Luka personally. They don't even match up together. But for health, we might discuss Davis as a superstar, but he tends to be limited by health. Kawhi is also very definitely a superstar-level player, but also limited by health. So again, not really sure why you would use those examples.

That’s why it’s not so black and white to me. I think at any given time right now we have 10-13 or so superstars.

Okay, we definitely disagree on that, but that's less salient.

Let's circle back to Jalen Green. He has, at no point in his career, shown the level of ability which would put him into a tier with the guys we're speaking of here. Kawhi, Luka, Giannis, SGA, Jokic, Embiid... he's nothing like them. He's had a shade over a dozen games of hot shooting from 3 in volume at WILD odds with his career numbers. That's... it, really. That's not MVP-threatening play at all. He hasn't shown the sort of impact or ability you see from that caliber of player. And 15 games is such a small sample to begin with that you can drawn essentially nothing of value from that.

Well we never discussed Jalen until now, but I think he has top 6-10 ish potential so again, based on how I categorize superstars he’d be in the lower tier of them IF he reaches his best case scenario.

When I say dominate I don’t mean 1 on 1. I mean that someone like AD can definitely be the best player in a series even with an MVP level guy like Jokic. It’s less likely (which is why they rank lower overall, but it isn’t rare either). Same goes for anyone that is a top 6-12 ish player IMO.

[tsherkin]

Well we never discussed Jalen until now, but I think he has top 6-10 ish potential so again, based on how I categorize superstars he’d be in the lower tier of them IF he reaches his best case scenario.

When I say dominate I don’t mean 1 on 1. I mean that someone like AD can definitely be the best player in a series even with an MVP level guy like Jokic. It’s less likely (which is why they rank lower overall, but it isn’t rare either). Same goes for anyone that is a top 6-12 ish player IMO.

Interesting.

Why do you think a guy who has historically shown us such limp offense has that sort of potential? Let's set aside what is and isn't a superstar for now, I don't think that's really salient any longer as we carry forward. What makes you think he could be a top-10 player in the league? What do you think he'll need on? Where do you think this massive forward development will manifest?

[Vampirate]

Green is just maddingly inconsistent. He can be bad 1 month and the next month just heat up and bring his stats back up.

[WiggOuts]

I'll never understand people who think a player is a finished product at 22-23 years old. The op uses the word "finally" as if he's been in the league forever. This stuff is rarely linear

[doogie_hauser]

I think we need to see how Jalen Green performs in the playoffs (assuming the Rockets make it this season) before getting a better assessment to his talents and ceiling

The post season is where generally players reputations are forged or lost.

I also disagree with the notion that Sengun and Green cannot function together coherently