Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[DCZards]

As long as the team is improving and the FO is making the right moves, which they appear to be doing, the players’ mindset will be fine, imo. They’ll know and see that a winning culture is being built.

Bilal knows that’s he’s on a young team that will lose a ton of games for at least the next couple of seasons. He also knows that he has the chance to be a centerpiece of a vastly improved and competitive Zards team 2-3 years from now. Bilal (and the other 3 recent draftees) is young and can be patient.

[payitforward]

I agree on paper... but the difference between the worst/2nd worst teams (15-20 wins) and the 7th/8th worst teams (30-35 wins) is almost DOUBLE the amount of wins. I dont know if we should put a burgeoning player like Bilal through that dreck.

Just something to ponder

I don't understand. Are you saying Bilal's psyche could maybe withstand a 30-52 season, but a 20-62 season would break him?

No. Im saying winning 20 games or less for 3 straight years builds a losing culture that is harder to dig out of than people realize.
We won 15 games last year...fine. We will probably only win 20 or so this year... also fine. But If we only win 15-20 games the following year, then it gets excessive....

How many games we win depends on how good our players are.
How good our players are depends on how well we draft.
How well we draft depends on... lots of things -- but it helps to have high picks.
To have high picks you must lose.

[payitforward]

...We want to be OKC/Orlando...Not Detroit.

Overall, Detroit has drafted very poorly the last 9 years.

[AFM]

11 points 4 assists and 6 TOs for Deni last night.

[AFM]

13/6 last night on 33% shooting. Is anyone watching these games?

[Kanyewest]

13/6 last night on 33% shooting. Is anyone watching these games?

Apparently was having a good game in the clutch when the Blazers put in Banton when the Suns nearly blew a 26 point lead. Deni still missed a critical layup in the game but at least was able to knock down a couple of 3s for the first time this season. Had the best plus minus among the starters at 12. It looked like the game got away from the Blazers when they went to their bench (Clingan, Murray, and Henderson were -16, -18, and -24 respectively)

[The Consiglieri]

We can have our cake and eat it too--even if the youngsters play well, there is no way we win 30 games. This team is not good, the last two games notwithstanding.

Agreed. Atlanta was a uniquely advantageous matchup for us given their reliance on Trae, and us having a Trae stopper in Bilal. It also helped that we hit a zillion 3-pointers and teams don't really have a scouting report on our youngsters.

I think things are going to get much worse for us offensively once the scouting report comes out on Bilal, and once Poole's 3-ball comes back to career norms.

I was blown away by the hyperbole on the Bleave in Wizards podcast, paraphrasing, "we may be done tanking after this season,". Umm, no.

We've got a handful of young upside prospects on this roster, only two of whom you'd give a chance higher than say 25-30% of reaching their ceiling and becoming legit special players that could be big 3 types. This team is going to be bad for quite a while, that was the height of small sample size madness in terms of that podcast, flat out crazy. Is it possible, we win the lottery next year, get a mega star, Bilal turns into a megastar,Bub becomes very good, Sarr reaches most of his ceiling. Yes. Is it likely? No. Most tanking teams trajectories, even when successful include a pile of tank years. We're 1 season into this tank, having only committed to it in the summer of '23. My guess is, if we get lucky, we could be a playoff caliber team in '26-'27, and battling for 30+ wins in '25-'26, the more likely scenario is we're playing to top 30 wins in '26-'27. It all depends upon what we can get for our crappy veteran assets in dump trades, and how lucky we are both in the lottery and w/our selections in '25, and '26, and with Bilal and Sarr's and Bub's development.
If everything goes right, maybe we matter by fall '26, but man, thinking we're done tanking after this season just strikes me as borderline insane. I get that the FO might stop actively trying to suck after this year, but the team is going to be bad for a while, back to back wins against Atlanta or not. We are in year 2 of the tank, not year 4, they weren't trying to tank '19- to spring '23, they were grand mal idiots, and as a result we extracted nothing from any of those failed seasons save Deni ('18-'19 to '21-'22), the good news is that it looks like the new guys took a giant swing on upside and ceiling in June of '23 and may have hit a double or a triple with that decision after the team struck out ugly in '18, '19, '21 and '22. That potential success, could potentially shorten both the deliberate and inadvertent length of the tank job by 1 full season (in terms of sub .500, and often sub .400 seasons) from a potential end in the spring of '27 or '28, to '26 or '27 instead, hopefully it does, we'll see, but man did some people get off their skis the last few days on what the games meant in the big picture (I'm not talking about the prospects, the evidence is pretty damn good so far with the new regime and their drafting).

[J-Ves]

We can have our cake and eat it too--even if the youngsters play well, there is no way we win 30 games. This team is not good, the last two games notwithstanding.

Agreed. Atlanta was a uniquely advantageous matchup for us given their reliance on Trae, and us having a Trae stopper in Bilal. It also helped that we hit a zillion 3-pointers and teams don't really have a scouting report on our youngsters.

I think things are going to get much worse for us offensively once the scouting report comes out on Bilal, and once Poole's 3-ball comes back to career norms.

I was blown away by the hyperbole on the Bleave in Wizards podcast, paraphrasing, "we may be done tanking after this season,". Umm, no.

We've got a handful of young upside prospects on this roster, only two of whom you'd give a chance higher than say 25-30% of reaching their ceiling and becoming legit special players that could be big 3 types. This team is going to be bad for quite a while, that was the height of small sample size madness in terms of that podcast, flat out crazy. Is it possible, we win the lottery next year, get a mega star, Bilal turns into a megastar,Bub becomes very good, Sarr reaches most of his ceiling. Yes. Is it likely? No. Most tanking teams trajectories, even when successful include a pile of tank years. We're 1 season into this tank, having only committed to it in the summer of '23. My guess is, if we get lucky, we could be a playoff caliber team in '26-'27, and battling for 30+ wins in '25-'26, the more likely scenario is we're playing to top 30 wins in '26-'27. It all depends upon what we can get for our crappy veteran assets in dump trades, and how lucky we are both in the lottery and w/our selections in '25, and '26, and with Bilal and Sarr's and Bub's development.
If everything goes right, maybe we matter by fall '26, but man, thinking we're done tanking after this season just strikes me as borderline insane. I get that the FO might stop actively trying to suck after this year, but the team is going to be bad for a while, back to back wins against Atlanta or not. We are in year 2 of the tank, not year 4, they weren't trying to tank '19- to spring '23, they were grand mal idiots, and as a result we extracted nothing from any of those failed seasons save Deni ('18-'19 to '21-'22), the good news is that it looks like the new guys took a giant swing on upside and ceiling in June of '23 and may have hit a double or a triple with that decision after the team struck out ugly in '18, '19, '21 and '22. That potential success, could potentially shorten both the deliberate and inadvertent length of the tank job by 1 full season (in terms of sub .500, and often sub .400 seasons) from a potential end in the spring of '27 or '28, to '26 or '27 instead, hopefully it does, we'll see, but man did some people get off their skis the last few days on what the games meant in the big picture (I'm not talking about the prospects, the evidence is pretty damn good so far with the new regime and their drafting).

I could see an unlikely scenario where we are done tanking after this year. If we luck into Flagg we run a rotation of Poole Bub Bey Kyshawn Bilal Flagg Sarr and perhaps a FA signing to go with whatever assets we get from Kispert, JV, Kuz, and Brogdon trades. If the development of all our guys goes well that’s a .500 team

[dckingsfan]

13/6 last night on 33% shooting. Is anyone watching these games?

Yep. A couple of things. He has the second best on/off percentage of the starters. He has been even better this year on D.

All that while he has been playing SG

The downside have been the TOs and missing so many bunnies at the rim (that and his 3-point shot has gone south).

Let's see how he adjusts over the next two months to the different offensive roll (which seems to have thrown him a bit).

[Rafael122]

I've seen enough, Bub and George have a higher NBA ceiling than Deni has. Deni has a great contract, but George and Bub have that next level NBA trait that unfortunately Deni doesn't have. Deni's ceiling is probably 3rd guy on a championship team, but realistically probably the 4th.

[closg00]

I've seen enough, Bub and George have a higher NBA ceiling than Deni has. Deni has a great contract, but George and Bub have that next level NBA trait that unfortunately Deni doesn't have. Deni's ceiling is probably 3rd guy on a championship team, but realistically probably the 4th.

Fair assessment, offensively, he is what he is, w/o the ability to be a legit 1st, 2nd, or 3rd option threat, he is a solid role player, Bub has a chance to be more if he can beat guys off the dribble and learn to get to the cup.

[Rafael122]

I've seen enough, Bub and George have a higher NBA ceiling than Deni has. Deni has a great contract, but George and Bub have that next level NBA trait that unfortunately Deni doesn't have. Deni's ceiling is probably 3rd guy on a championship team, but realistically probably the 4th.

Fair assessment, offensively, he is what he is, w/o the ability to be a legit 1st, 2nd, or 3rd option threat, he is a solid role player, Bub has a chance to be more if he can beat guys off the dribble and learn to get to the cup.

This is why I understood the trade (though it took me a minute to come around). You're getting a lottery pick plus another potential high FRP (BTW, Milwaukee looks AWFUL, rebuilds hit you quickly). So a) they saw a kid they really liked at 14 and b) they're taking a chance that the Celtics/Bucks window will be closed 5 years from now. And the kids Dawkins have drafted are the type of players we fawn about because we're drafting guys with character and an average ceiling. Dawkins would have drafted Haliburton instead of Deni. He probably would have drafted Jalen Johnson, Sengun, or Murphy over Kispert. He probably would have drafted Jalen Williams over Davis. These guys are just on another level when it comes to the scouting.

[J-Ves]

I've seen enough, Bub and George have a higher NBA ceiling than Deni has. Deni has a great contract, but George and Bub have that next level NBA trait that unfortunately Deni doesn't have. Deni's ceiling is probably 3rd guy on a championship team, but realistically probably the 4th.

I wonder what Bub’s ceiling is? Right now because he is not really a threat to score inside I consider him a Monte Morris/Tyus Jones type with better size and defensive potential. Bub is not an off ball scorer yet but I think he can become one

Kyshawn clearly has a big upside. Possibly even borderline all star especially if he can grow another inch or two. The things that looked to hold him back on draft night were overblown

[AFM]

This trade already is a home run and it’s not even close. Even though we’re losing I’m loving watching these young fellas play ball.

[Frichuela]

This trade already is a home run and it’s not even close. Even though we’re losing I’m loving watching these young fellas play ball.

And let's not forget we MUST lose to secure a top pick in this draft. There are 5 prospects in the 2025 draft that look very tantalizing.

[doclinkin]

I've seen enough, Bub and George have a higher NBA ceiling than Deni has. Deni has a great contract, but George and Bub have that next level NBA trait that unfortunately Deni doesn't have. Deni's ceiling is probably 3rd guy on a championship team, but realistically probably the 4th.

I wonder what Bub’s ceiling is? Right now because he is not really a threat to score inside I consider him a Monte Morris/Tyus Jones type with better size and defensive potential. Bub is not an off ball scorer yet but I think he can become one

Kyshawn clearly has a big upside. Possibly even borderline all star especially if he can grow another inch or two. The things that looked to hold him back on draft night were overblown

Bub is still a teenager. Younger by 6 mos than Deni was as a rookie. I don’t think we can definitely say what he can and can’t do. He hasn’t learned yet how to score inside but you see flashes of it. He’s thrown down a couple dunks already. Whereas Tyus and Morris are 6 footers, Bub is a 6’5” PG who is still growing into his frame and filling out. You want to lay bets against him getting stronger?

With his mindset and demeanor I fully expect Bub to figure out how to attack the basket once he realizes smaller defenders are going to bounce off him. By the end of his rookie deal I expect we see a very different Bub Carrington leading this team. Same way we saw Deni grow into his game with us.

Relevant to this thread though he’s definitely showing a hotter start than Avdija. With per 36 numbers that are really solid:

Bub: ~13/5r/6a/1s/.4 blocks. Ast/TO ratio of nearly 6:1. Shooting 50% from 2, 35% 3FG, 92% from the line. I just want him to learn to attack the basket more since he’s only getting 3 FT per 36.

Compare with rookie Deni: ~10/7.5r/2a/1s/.4b on 53/31/64 and only 1 FT attempt per 36. People forget how timid Deni was in attacking the basket or calling his own number.

I’d take rookie Bub’s upside over rookie Deni even without considering other draft capital and assets. Or George who we got from the Gafford trade.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

So much obnoxious, front-running blabber over the last page of this thread after only the first two weeks of the season.

With that said obviously not an ideal start to the season for him, especially from three, while learning new schemes, teammates, being in a new environment. He'll be fine once some shots start falling and acclimates, plenty of players like similar talent Jalen Johnson struggling with their shot to start the season, Deni just doesn't have the luxury of getting minutes no matter what with what POR's roster is. He's doing a lot of other things well this season despite the early season shooting woos, full confidence knowing his work ethic that he'll get on track.

Speaking of minutes and the putting up shots no matter what, these three rookies have been afforded both of those things very early in their careers with no consequences. Which is great, young players on a rebuilding team should get that. Deni never sniffed anything close to that, always on poorly run teams that were trying to eke out a play-in birth. Not a cherry pick, you just have some posters here making frivolous claims with zero context.

[doclinkin]

Speaking of minutes and the putting up shots no matter what, these three rookies have been afforded both of those things very early in their careers with no consequences. Which is great, young players on a rebuilding team should get that. Deni never sniffed anything close to that, always on poorly run teams that were trying to eke out a play-in birth.

I fully agree with this point. Deni’s confidence was always in jeopardy since he’d get pulled for a rough patch and had to battle for PT with less efficient/poor defending players. His surge last year came when he had clearly cemented his spot on the team.

It’s why the fan base is happy we are finally committed to the rebuild. And why losses are still cause for celebration as long as the kids get heavy minutes and show flashes.

That said even Deni admitted his own attitude would take himself out of games for a stretch. It’s revisionist history if you don’t admit that early in his career he was shy to attack the basket and scared to shoot from 3. He was right that his better move was to pass, often, but Westbrook was also right to get in his jersey about being gunshy.

Me I’m worried less about comparing this year’s Deni to rookie Bub. In fact Deni’s development last year has me even more hopeful about Bub’s development over the next few years. Whatever he does in Portland is irrelevant to me. It’s not like either of our teams is winning. But under this front office Deni broke out and worked hard on his shortfalls. The way maybe he would have earlier if we had committed to a full rebuild. It’s a good sign for all of our rooks and Bilal that the franchise is committed to player development over short term wins.

[tontoz]

Speaking of minutes and the putting up shots no matter what, these three rookies have been afforded both of those things very early in their careers with no consequences. Which is great, young players on a rebuilding team should get that. Deni never sniffed anything close to that, always on poorly run teams that were trying to eke out a play-in birth.

I fully agree with this point. Deni’s confidence was always in jeopardy since he’d get pulled for a rough patch and had to battle for PT with less efficient/poor defending players. His surge last year came when he had clearly cemented his spot on the team.

It’s why the fan base is happy we are finally committed to the rebuild. And why losses are still cause for celebration as long as the kids get heavy minutes and show flashes.

That said even Deni admitted his own attitude would take himself out of games for a stretch. It’s revisionist history if you don’t admit that early in his career he was shy to attack the basket and scared to shoot from 3. He was right that his better move was to pass, often, but Westbrook was also right to get in his jersey about being gunshy.

Me I’m worried less about comparing this year’s Deni to rookie Bub. In fact Deni’s development last year has me even more hopeful about Bub’s development over the next few years. Whatever he does in Portland is irrelevant to me. It’s not like either of our teams is winning. But under this front office Deni broke out and worked hard on his shortfalls. The way maybe he would have earlier if we had committed to a full rebuild. It’s a good sign for all of our rooks and Bilal that the franchise is committed to player development over short term wins.

That was a constant source of frustration until his 4th season. What made it worse was people making excuses for him, blaming the coaches or the team or....whatever. No, it was him. Nobody was going to hit him with a cattle prod if he tried to drive.

[payitforward]

The thread that wouldn't quit....