Roster Outlook 1/10th of the way through season

[Guru]

1. White: 8 starts, 33.1mpg, 19ppg, 3.8r, 4.6a, 1.3s, 38% from 3: Has been inconsistent with scoring but still putting up nice numbers and attacking the basket
2. Lavine: 6 starts, 34.7mpg, 22.7ppg, 5.5r, 2.7a-3.7to's, 45% from 3: He has been a scoring machine and shoots very well. Turnovers have been a huge issue; he's at his career-worst number there. Still, his scoring has to intrigue contending teams.
3. Giddey: 8 starts, 29mpg, 14.1ppg, 5.5r, 6.3a, 42% from 3: Couldn't love Giddey more and will happily sign him up long term. What he does rebounding and distributing outshines his very capable scoring. A selfless 3rd or 4th option on offense that keeps things going.
4. Williams: 8 starts, 27mpg, 8ppg, 5.4r, 36% from 3: Same old Williams, capable defender, rebounder and 3 point shooter who isn't angry or aggressive enough to get anyone excited. A very capable rotational forward, even a fifth starter, who doesn't seem like he will ever reach his perceived potential.
5. Vuc: 8 starts, 32.1mpg, 20.8ppg, 10.8r, 3.6a, 45% from 3, 95% FT: Vuc has his legs under him, his shot back and is so cerebral that he is scoring easy baskets at a high clip. He pairs perfectly with Giddey. So much so that I would hate to trade him but with his age (34) and this teams trajectory AND his stellar play so far this season there has a to be a suitor.

6. Ayo: 2 starts, 27.5mpg, 9.5ppg, 5.4rpg, 4.3apg, 17% from 3: Ayo is once again a very solid rotational guard and 6th man who is struggling from 3. He still is probably our most aggressive player attacking the basket and a solid defender.
7. Smith: 14mpg, 8.7ppg, 5.1rpg, 44% from 3: Very solid rotational big who should probably be getting more minutes. Stretches the floor well and rebounds well.
8. Ball: 15.7mpg, 4.7ppg, 2.7rpg, 3.7apg: 33% from 3: Ball has been solid in the few minutes he has played. A very fun story that is tough to rely on in the rotation. Every time he is in the good things happen and you can easily see how a healthy Ball fits incredibly well with Giddey et al.
9. Phillips: 14.3ppg, 4.1ppg, .9spg: Phillips has surprisingly been one of the first players off the bench and flashed in his time. Still just 21 with a lot of growth on the horizon.
10. Terry: 12.1mpg, 3,3ppg, .6spg: Terry has shown well in his brief stints as well. Active offensively and defensively. He's just 22 as well. His ceiling is probably rotational defender who is a superb connective tissue on offense.
11. Buzzelis: 7.9mpg, 2.6ppg: Flashed in 23 minutes in his last game with 13 points and 9 boards. He should be coming along nicely.

12. Duarte: 4.7mpg, 6.3ppg---you saw that right he's scoring pretty well for barely playing. Will be interesting to see if a Lavine trade opens up some minutes
13. Sanogo: 2 games 9 minutes total, Solid but nothing to write home about
14. THT: 10.8mpg, 3.8ppg, 2 RPG: A really fun player if his role was just to score. Flashed it in preseason but hasn't done it in the regular season.
15-16 Carter and Craig: I assume they are entrenched on the trading block. Their ability doesn't match their playing time so I assume they are just avoiding injury to ship them off to a playoff team in a few weeks/months.

Overall: The 3 game losing streak and poor starts in nearly every game have to weigh on everyone. This team has the scaffolding to be a fun playoff team. I like what Buz-Terry and Phillips have all flashed. I would assume they hover around that 30 win number and we keep the pick. The offense is there. The pace is fun. The 3 point shooting is vastly improved. The defense is elementary school like. Knowing that Cooper Flag is really known for his defense that would just be a dream. (I am not firmly a conspiracy theorist but I also wouldn't be surprised at all if the NBA found a way to steer Flagg to one if it's flaggship franchises).

Lets just say this was the lineup next year.....Thats a super fun lineup.

1 White-Ball
2 Giddey-Ayo-Duarte
3 Buzz-Phillips-Terry
4 Flagg-Williams
5 Vuc-Smith

[sco]

Interesting points! 10 game hot takes that (I hope) may prove way wrong this season.

IMO, I have learned a lot from the games that Zach and Ball have missed. Despite his imminent departure, Zach is a reasonable proxy for a #1 scorer, with other guys able to assume lesser roles. What has been obvious to me is just how far below Zach's ability that Coby is, which wouldn't have been my assumption. I'm not sure I think Coby is a viable #2 option, and if he's not, he really needs to be traded because once you get to the #3 option, there's a presumption that that guy is more of glue guy than a scorer.

Also, Pat's lack of emergence offensively with Zach out also reinforces my view that he should be traded if possible. He really isn't showing any improvement, although I will note that he is trying more to generate his own offense, but in so doing, he's showing he can't do that.

Lastly, I feel like we are living off of a good rookie year defensively for Ayo. For whatever reason, I wouldn't even call him above average defensively this season. His offense has been too inconsistent this season for me to see "starter" potential with him anymore, not because he couldn't start, but he's always struck me as a glue-guy starter, but the combo of his offense and defense isn't good enough for a playoff caliber team.

[cocktailswith_2short]

We're just not bad enough to tank . Almost but if ball and Zach are playing it's a floating .500 team . This slump won't last . Good assessment of the team. We're in better shape than we were 365 days ago .

[MGB8]

Too optimistic in my opinion. Zach looked bounced back pre-injury, with the same limitation re handle and bball IQ (that lead to turnovers) but also improved D. But the rest…. Coby looks like a Jordan Clarkson type 6th man. Ayo hasn’t really progressed from last season. Pat is trying more consistently, but somehow has regressed from the player he was as a rookie - where is the development? How is he such a non-entity?

Phillips has flashes, but they are too far between. And Giddey’s defense and handle are so very far away from a starting level player on a good team (absent him being the worst guy out there). Terry tries. THT is what he is. Matas is very far away.

The first couple of wins look like they may have been a mirage - other teams’ getting their game legs. The draft pick is safe, but the Bulls are a bottom feeder - with pout Zach they are Wizards level.

[pipfan]

Just wondering
Let's say we traded Lavine for Giannis (I know, impossible but let's play along)

Would this team be a contender?
Ayo/Ball
White/Terry
Giddy/Pwill
Giannis/PWill
Vuc/Smith

I don't think it would be. We are VERY far from being a contender

[jnrjr79]

We're just not bad enough to tank . Almost but if ball and Zach are playing it's a floating .500 team . This slump won't last . Good assessment of the team. We're in better shape than we were 365 days ago .

If Zach keeps playing this well, he's probably out of here, FWIW.

[kodo]

How bad the team can look has a lot to do with the bench outside of Jalen Smith.

Probably a surprising stat for most of us: Chicago starters and OKC starters are both tied for PPG at 9th best in the league.
Chicago: 82.8 ppg on 46%/49% shooting
OKC: 82.8 ppg on 47%/36% shooting

Bench quality is a nosedive, 21st about the same as the Pistons (30 ppg vs 29 ppg). It would be one thing if the bench was providing elite defense, but we know they're not they haven't stopped anyone this season. And this is even with Jalen Smith playing like a stud.

Post-Lavine trade we'll be one of the worst starting units in the league but that's what a rebuild looks like. Definitely got a taste of that vs Dallas.

What has been obvious to me is just how far below Zach's ability that Coby is, which wouldn't have been my assumption. I'm not sure I think Coby is a viable #2 option, and if he's not, he really needs to be traded because once you get to the #3 option, there's a presumption that that guy is more of glue guy than a scorer.

Assuming Coby asks for the same as Giddey, $30M per year, are you resigning him?
Coby just saw Pat get $18M for 5 years to do relatively little, I don't think he'll consider around the same $20M.

[MrSparkle]

My assumption is Coby and Ayo will have their stronger stretches, but overall, they'll again end the season with below-average marks for starting/rotation guards. They have a tough job with the lack of rim protection, defensive help, athletic finishers and Giddey/Pat not being the strongest scoring threats. I'm not gonna throw a fit about our 24yo $20m backcourt playing inconsistently. There is that flailing hope that they become some kind of higher class guards like Maxey or Murray (either). But it's sometimes hard to envision when you actually look at their advanced stats relative to years experience. I don't see all-star potential in either, but I do see $20-30M potential for salary, and that's a problem. It'd be a problem paying Coby $25M just to have mediocre production from your primary guard.

Giddey is not good right now, but very interesting... We've seen crazy swings - Lonzo, Harden, Lauri. He has some elite intangibles that could translate into something special, but it'll be a long shot for him to become a scoring threat with net-plus defense. TBF though, playing with the undersized , unathletic front-court does him zero favors. Coby-Giddey-Matas-Flag-Reid sounds like a cool lineup. So what I'm saying, is Chicago shouldn't pay this guy like a top-3 option. But it would be nice to retain him and see what happens. Hopefully PWill money.

One nice thing about Giddey is he's getting to the line a record amount of times. Huge jump from 1.6 FTAs to 4.3. IMO that is the holy grail hidden mark of an all-star talent. I'd say 4.0 is right at the bottom. But the FT% is horrible. If he bumps that % and increases the number of attempts a little more, that alone could be his ticket to a stealth jump in production (in addition to continuing improvement in 3P makes). Otherwise, you have to just approach him as your one sieve that you need 4 strong defenders (including an elite rim protector at C) to make it work. Note that the Mavs have size and athleticism all over that front-court, to make up for Luka's cop body. Playing Vuc or Kevin Love on the Mavs would be a laughable disaster.

Zach's biggest problem has honestly been injury history. He's very turnover prone-- easy antidote is to not let him handle the ball as much. But he's made of glass, like Rose and Lonzo. I can't think of 1 season he made it to the end without something that took him out of the season. This cascades to him underperforming on defense. I can't blame a guy for giving up on loose possessions if he's torn his ACL and had multiple surgeries afterwards. For health alone, you just need to move on from Lonzo and Zach. They need to be win-now boosts to a playoff team. Can't be spending $60M on injury rehabs - it's very Arenas/Wall/Beal-ish. Wizards are still trying to crawl out of a decade+ hole. You can't re-invest in injured stars. I'm in favor of dumping them for the first decent, non-negative offer. Expirings and a 2nd; TPE would be amazing.

I think Matas, Coby and Giddey are the 3 most interesting parts of the build. Ayo and Pat are this less important tier of potential player. Just a matter of extension cost, with all of them. PW seems very overpaid. Vuc is a productive tank commander. Otherwise, we are the Windy City Bulls. I knew Billy was gonna make THT a part of the rotation. It's crazy, but we have such a bad forward rotation, than an undersized vet min journey-man with an inkling of defensive ability and ball handling is able to quickly rise to a regular job over all these struggling prospects. I don't have much faith in Jalen, Terry, Phillips, Pat, but I also think Billy just doesn't know what to do with his SF/PF/C rotations. He's bent on some concept that doesn't work in the big picture IMO. You look at the big minute on/off lineup ratings the last 4 years and you tell me...

[cocktailswith_2short]

Just wondering
Let's say we traded Lavine for Giannis (I know, impossible but let's play along)

Would this team be a contender?
Ayo/Ball
White/Terry
Giddy/Pwill
Giannis/PWill
Vuc/Smith

I don't think it would be. We are VERY far from being a contender

that's only because giannis is a pretender. Put a real franchise player in that group it would do quite well

[Tetlak]

Phillips has been inconsistent, but I'd rather prioritize his development over Pat at the moment even though Pat is theoretically a much more well rounded player. An actual springy, athletic 3 and D forward could do this team wonders.

[DuckIII]

We're just not bad enough to tank

We might be. Maybe. The formula is pretty clear: if we shoot better than the other team, we’ll have a chance to win. If we don’t shoot better than the other team, we will almost never win because our defense is absolutely hideous.

That is a pretty crappy formula. We’ll see how it goes but the early returns are encouragingly bad.

[jnrjr79]

We're just not bad enough to tank

We might be. Maybe. The formula is pretty clear: if we shoot better than the other team, we’ll have a chance to win. If we don’t shoot better than the other team, we will almost never win because our defense is absolutely hideous.

That is a pretty crappy formula. We’ll see how it goes but the early returns are encouragingly bad.

I'd have to look at the box scores to confirm, but my anecdotal view having watched a good chunk of the games is that the outcomes have more or less been completely a function of 1) how well they are hitting threes in the game, and 2) turnovers.