Political Roundtable Part XXXIII

[closg00]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

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[montestewart]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

Read on Twitter

He also has a habit of saying nonsensically cockamamie caca caca ("stable genius"). Need something independent of his words to anchor a conspiracy theory.

[pancakes3]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

Read on Twitter

i'm curious about this, but same as after 2016 and 2020, I don't want this to be the focus or lesson from 2024 for big d Dems.

There needs to be introspection, innovation, and preparation. Trotting out Joe the first time was uninspired, trotting out Joe a second time was downright embarrassing.

If Kamala is too tied to Joe, then Joe's too tied to Obama, and i don't want to say it but Obama is not a progressive in 2024. he certainly was in '08 when he ran on Hope and Change but he's not that dude anymore, and the we are not that country anymore. moreover, we didn't get the Hope and Change that was promised. Obamacare was gutted by republicans and SCOTUS, and we still have an overwhelming segment of the population that believes free healthcare is a communist plot to bankrupt our nation.

i truly believe that between the bubbling sentiments of populism in republicans and progressive lefts, we have caught up to Bernie. the problem is that we don't have a Bernie candidate anymore.

dems need to spotlight that bernie candidate.

[AFM]

I love this lil fella like you wouldnt believe

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[Pointgod]

There really is a misinformation gap across the political spectrum. This is what needs to be addressed. You can’t just ignore facts because you don’t feel like it….

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[Pointgod]

I love this lil fella like you wouldnt believe

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[Pointgod]

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[Benjammin]

Chris Cuomo on the election results:
"I don't confuse my analysis of Trump with the people who vote for him...You are not racist or even wrong if you vote for Trump...The other side was acting under mass delusion...I know the way through. These are the two toughest questions when it come to confronting change. So what, and now what? We know what happened last night. Parsing the numbers is masturbatory and a distraction to a certain extent from the question we don't want to deal with. Why?

Candidates matter. Harris wasn't a great candidate. But it was more than that. Race, gender, yeah that plays into it, explicitly or implicitly in America. But Bernie Sanders was right that the Democratic Party traded constantly talking about being for working families and how, for being against Trump. Trump sucks has a lot of appeal, but not as much as people's interests, economically and in terms of feeling safe, and yes, seen. Seen. Especially when you tell them what they think matters, makes them the problem. When all they want is to be seen and not judged. Sound woke? Well ironically the Democrats didn't do what they want of others. In politics if you tell people they are wrong to feel the way they feel, you lose. You have to meet the majority where they are on what matters. The key is to give ideas that change feelings.

So we can see why this happened. Now the only question is what are you going to do about it?"

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[TGW]

Bernie was the candidate the stupid democrats should have ran and he would have beaten Trump. Not a corporate bozo who was generally unliked with a 28% approval rating who said she would do nothing different than Biden.

[dobrojim]

re mass deportation

A part of the discussion, if you can call it that, that was ignored was the actual cost of such
a massive effort necessary to deport 10 million people. Last night Lawrence O'Donnell
talked about this about 6 minutes into his show. The number he threw out that it would
cost to deport that many people was $50B, which is more than the entire budget of a
number of federal agencies. I expect he'll claim something like 'Mexico will pay for it'.
Or 'there is no price tag'. IOW, complete BS. Of course there is a price tag.

Watch on YouTube

[Pointgod]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

Read on Twitter

There was a community notes check that this was from July.

[montestewart]

re mass deportation

A part of the discussion, if you can call it that, that was ignored was the actual cost of such
a massive effort necessary to deport 10 million people. Last night Lawrence O'Donnell
talked about this about 6 minutes into his show. The number he threw out that it would
cost to deport that many people was $50B, which is more than the entire budget of a
number of federal agencies. I expect he'll claim something like 'Mexico will pay for it'.
Or 'there is no price tag'. IOW, complete BS. Of course there is a price tag.

Watch on YouTube

It would presumably have a big effect on some key sectors of US economy, probably at least hospitality, construction, farming.

Zonk could address better, my guess is it should tighten labor market and drive wages up but instead somehow in Trump world it will just lead to greater wealth inequity. So Wizards.

[Kanyewest]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

Read on Twitter

i'm curious about this, but same as after 2016 and 2020, I don't want this to be the focus or lesson from 2024 for big d Dems.

There needs to be introspection, innovation, and preparation. Trotting out Joe the first time was uninspired, trotting out Joe a second time was downright embarrassing.

If Kamala is too tied to Joe, then Joe's too tied to Obama, and i don't want to say it but Obama is not a progressive in 2024. he certainly was in '08 when he ran on Hope and Change but he's not that dude anymore, and the we are not that country anymore. moreover, we didn't get the Hope and Change that was promised. Obamacare was gutted by republicans and SCOTUS, and we still have an overwhelming segment of the population that believes free healthcare is a communist plot to bankrupt our nation.

i truly believe that between the bubbling sentiments of populism in republicans and progressive lefts, we have caught up to Bernie. the problem is that we don't have a Bernie candidate anymore.

dems need to spotlight that bernie candidate.

I will say that Biden was always to seen as the right to Obama and that's why Obama picked him as a vice president to solidify his chances to beat McCain- to shore up his biggest weakness as being seen too liberal along with his lack of experience at the time. Although yeah Biden is still tied to Obama because behind the scenes he got everyone to drop off to go against Bernie. Also, Obama along with Clinton and Pelosi gave Kamala the go (although for Harris I put less blame on him given the timeline of what happened given how short it fell through even though I would have preferred a snap primary).

Harris was also picked to shore up Biden's weakness (younger, woman, African American). Biden said to Sanders during a debate that no matter what he was going to pick a woman.

The lesson learned I think is that perhaps the vice presidential candidate should not be seen as necessarily the best candidate to run for president. Biden finished 4th or 5th in 2008. Harris finished 5th or 6th in 2020. Perhaps if the incumbent drops off (in a normal contested primary) it should go to the candidate that receives the 2nd most votes.

Not sure how any of these things get implemented though and Democrats are likely to repeat their mistakes.

[closg00]

There is no evidence yet of Trump cheating, but he does have a habit of stupidly admitting things he doesn’t mean to. Will we ever know what his secret with Mike Johnson is?

Read on Twitter

There was a community notes check that this was from July.

I don’t see how that is relevant. Also, I have never seen a community check on anything right wing on Twitter. Again, I qualified my comment, there is no evidence of any wrong doing, OTOH, Trump confesses stupidly in public comments, he can’t help himself. “Russia if you’re listening, find Hillary’s emails” (paraphrasing)

[Zonkerbl]

I've been thinking about Benjammin and his "I can't believe you're taking this so seriously" vibe. Well, I've been thinking about that, and I've been thinking about kayfabe. In the kayfabe paradigm, people are voting for Trump the same way people who've never lived in Texas root for the Dallas Cowboys. It's fun to root for the team everybody hates. It's all fake anyway, nothing in the sports world actually affects real people, and I suspect that's how Trump supporters view it. They're just dressing up in Nazi clothing and pretending to be evil to pwn the libs, not because they expect the Republicans to actually follow through on all the crazy stuff Trump says.

My god I hope that's true.

Maybe Trump is playing the heel, the kid who likes to play Darth Vader, running around on the playground trying to find someone to play Luke with him. Maybe instead of earnestly explaining to Darth Vader fans that he's an evil guy and you shouldn't root for him, I mean DUH we know he's "evil," why aren't you playing along???? Maybe they're waiting for someone to play Luke. Someone to cry dramatically and scream "you're not my father!!!" People watch big time wrestling because of the drama, the delicious conflict between good and evil. Well, we've got our bad guy - who's going to step and play the good guy? Not earnestly try to persuade the fans of the other team that rooting for the boring team that always loses is good, actually. But *play* at being good. Dramatically swoop in and rescue everybody, rise from the ashes after getting a good ass whuppin and summon strength from the cheers of your fans to face up to the Big Bad Bully and punch him in the face. Who was the most popular big time wrestler in my lifetime? The Undertaker. Was he a good guy or a bad guy? Yes.

I've never been a fan of big time wrestling myself, don't really get into soap operas either, but I've watched enough Battlestar Galactica to know how it works. That's probably how this has to go now, Trump has turned national politics into Big Time Wrestling and goddammit it's fun. Maybe if the Dems get out of debate club persuasion mode, get into performance mode, put on a Jedi Master outfit and start swinging the lightsaber around dramatically they'll have more success.

I don't know how that would work in practice. My first thought is you go around staging dramatic rescues like in The Boys. Hire an actress to pretend to be hemorrhaging to death from a miscarriage, swoop in there and save the day somehow. Hire some thugs to set fire to a Planned Parenthood and then show up in tights and beat them senseless. Stuff like that.

[closg00]

What was the secret between Trump and Johnson that made Trump so confident before the election?

[Zonkerbl]

re mass deportation

A part of the discussion, if you can call it that, that was ignored was the actual cost of such
a massive effort necessary to deport 10 million people. Last night Lawrence O'Donnell
talked about this about 6 minutes into his show. The number he threw out that it would
cost to deport that many people was $50B, which is more than the entire budget of a
number of federal agencies. I expect he'll claim something like 'Mexico will pay for it'.
Or 'there is no price tag'. IOW, complete BS. Of course there is a price tag.

Watch on YouTube

It would presumably have a big effect on some key sectors of US economy, probably at least hospitality, construction, farming.

Zonk could address better, my guess is it should tighten labor market and drive wages up but instead somehow in Trump world it will just lead to greater wealth inequity. So Wizards.

Ugh it's actually really complicated, back when I was in the Commerce Department under W we hired some consultants to do a big computable general equilibrium simulation of what would happen under various scenarios. Turns out the most efficient way to stop immigration, according to the model anyway, is to not try to stop people at the border but to penalize firms that hire illegal labor. For what it's worth.

The effects on the economy are mixed, better immigration enforcement means higher wages for low skilled workers, relatively lower wages for high skilled workers, if I recall correctly. Common sense stuff. We tend to measure outcomes in terms of per capita income - even if getting rid of 10% of your work force lowers GDP by 10%, your per capita income is still the same so it's a wash. Hard to say really, macroeconomics is very tricky. Not my speciality, I'm a game theorist.

[Benjammin]

From Ruy Teixeira:

As they do so, here’s an idea to start with: have every Democrat ostentatiously say they subscribe to the following principles. These principles would signal to normie voters, particularly working-class voters of all races, that Democrats’ values and priorities are not so different from theirs. That’s a prerequisite for getting these voters to listen to Democrats’ pitch and take it seriously.

Equality of opportunity is a fundamental American principle; equality of outcome is not.

America is not perfect but it is good to be patriotic and proud of the country.

Discrimination and racism are bad but they are not the cause of all disparities in American society.

Racial achievement gaps are bad and we should seek to close them. However, they are not due just to racism and standards of high achievement should be maintained for people of all races.

No one is completely without bias but calling all white people racists who benefit from white privilege and American society a white supremacist society is not right or fair.

America benefits from the presence of immigrants and no immigrant, even if illegal, should be mistreated. But border security is hugely important, as is an enforceable system that fairly decides who can enter the country.

Police misconduct and brutality against people of any race is wrong and we need to reform police conduct and recruitment. However, more and better policing is needed to get criminals off the streets and secure public safety. That cannot be provided by “defunding the police”.

There are underlying differences between men and women that should not all be attributed to sexism. However, discrimination on the basis of gender is wrong and should always be opposed.

People who want to live as a gender different from their biological sex should have that right. However, biological sex is real and spaces limited to biological women in areas like sports and prisons should be preserved. Medical treatments like drugs and surgery are serious interventions that should not be available on demand, especially for children.

Language policing has gone too far; by and large, people should be able to express their views without fear of sanction by employer, school, institution or government. Free speech is a fundamental American value that should be safeguarded everywhere.

Climate change is a serious problem but it won’t be solved overnight. As we move toward a clean energy economy with an “all of the above” strategy, energy must continue to be cheap, reliable and abundant. That means fossil fuels, especially natural gas, will continue to be an important part of the mix.

We must make America more equal, but we also must make it richer. There is no contradiction between the two. A richer country will make it easier to promote equality.

Degrowth is the worst idea on the left since Communism. Ordinary voters want abundance: more stuff, more opportunity, cheaper prices, nicer, more comfortable lives. The only way to provide this is with more growth, not less.

We need to make it much easier to build things, from housing to transmission lines to nuclear reactors. That cannot happen without serious regulatory and permitting reform.

America needs a robust industrial policy that goes far beyond climate policy. We are in direct competition with nations like China, a competition we cannot win without building on cutting edge scientific research in all fields.

National economic development should prioritize the “left-behind” areas of the country. The New Deal under Franklin Roosevelt did this and we can do it today. “Trickle-down” economics from rich metropolitan areas is not working.

A Democratic Party united around these principles would be a far more appealing party to those millions of voters who are leaving the Democratic Party behind. It’s time to start calling them back.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-shattering-of-the-democratic

[Zonkerbl]

From Ruy Teixeira:

As they do so, here’s an idea to start with: have every Democrat ostentatiously say they subscribe to the following principles. These principles would signal to normie voters, particularly working-class voters of all races, that Democrats’ values and priorities are not so different from theirs. That’s a prerequisite for getting these voters to listen to Democrats’ pitch and take it seriously.

Equality of opportunity is a fundamental American principle; equality of outcome is not.

America is not perfect but it is good to be patriotic and proud of the country.

Discrimination and racism are bad but they are not the cause of all disparities in American society.

Racial achievement gaps are bad and we should seek to close them. However, they are not due just to racism and standards of high achievement should be maintained for people of all races.

No one is completely without bias but calling all white people racists who benefit from white privilege and American society a white supremacist society is not right or fair.

America benefits from the presence of immigrants and no immigrant, even if illegal, should be mistreated. But border security is hugely important, as is an enforceable system that fairly decides who can enter the country.

Police misconduct and brutality against people of any race is wrong and we need to reform police conduct and recruitment. However, more and better policing is needed to get criminals off the streets and secure public safety. That cannot be provided by “defunding the police”.

There are underlying differences between men and women that should not all be attributed to sexism. However, discrimination on the basis of gender is wrong and should always be opposed.

People who want to live as a gender different from their biological sex should have that right. However, biological sex is real and spaces limited to biological women in areas like sports and prisons should be preserved. Medical treatments like drugs and surgery are serious interventions that should not be available on demand, especially for children.

Language policing has gone too far; by and large, people should be able to express their views without fear of sanction by employer, school, institution or government. Free speech is a fundamental American value that should be safeguarded everywhere.

Climate change is a serious problem but it won’t be solved overnight. As we move toward a clean energy economy with an “all of the above” strategy, energy must continue to be cheap, reliable and abundant. That means fossil fuels, especially natural gas, will continue to be an important part of the mix.

We must make America more equal, but we also must make it richer. There is no contradiction between the two. A richer country will make it easier to promote equality.

Degrowth is the worst idea on the left since Communism. Ordinary voters want abundance: more stuff, more opportunity, cheaper prices, nicer, more comfortable lives. The only way to provide this is with more growth, not less.

We need to make it much easier to build things, from housing to transmission lines to nuclear reactors. That cannot happen without serious regulatory and permitting reform.

America needs a robust industrial policy that goes far beyond climate policy. We are in direct competition with nations like China, a competition we cannot win without building on cutting edge scientific research in all fields.

National economic development should prioritize the “left-behind” areas of the country. The New Deal under Franklin Roosevelt did this and we can do it today. “Trickle-down” economics from rich metropolitan areas is not working.

A Democratic Party united around these principles would be a far more appealing party to those millions of voters who are leaving the Democratic Party behind. It’s time to start calling them back.

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-shattering-of-the-democratic

So Democrats should just lie and abandon their core constituents? Great strategy.

No one says racism is the cause of all inequality in the country. That's a straw man. What Dems ACTUALLY say is that even if racism doesn't exist (not true! but for the sake of argument let's assume it is) the legacy of racism embedded in our institutions still exists and still has effects on outcomes. Of course allowing drug companies to get a whole bunch of people addicted to opioids and a number of other crimes against humanity are also part of why there are disparities in society. Who is doing anything about it? The Republicans? Please name one policy the Republicans are pursuing to help solve the opioid crisis.

"More and better policing is needed to get criminals off the streets" This is flat out wrong and we will never agree on ANYTHING if you continue to insist this is true. It is not. There is no real world evidence of this AT ALL. This is a moderate Dem position that drives me absolutely insane. Does having a cop point a gun in your face help combat drug addiction IN ANY WAY? Does having a cop point a gun in your face help someone having a mental health crisis? Does pointing a gun in the face of a domestic violence perpetrator help AT ALL??? IT DOES NOT. Also the premise of this "argument" is that crime is a big and increasing problem and it ISN'T. Certain neighborhoods that used to be nice are getting worse, and other neighborhoods that use to be crap are getting better. Well, everybody hates both changes, but in terms of crime the effect is a wash. San Francisco used to be really nice, but now the really nice parts that people used to like are going downhill. It's sad, but it's not true that San Francisco overall is turning into a big pit of crime. That's a right wing lie. Similarly after George Floyd's murder there were a bunch of protests but it wasn't the fricking purge like right wing media described it. Lies and exaggerations. Reduce expenditures on the tool that doesn't work - police - so that you have enough money to spend it on things that do work - mental health crisis teams, drug addiction intervention teams, specialized de-escalation teams for domestic violence incidents. It's SO GODDAMN STUPID to keep trying to hammer the square peg of police into the round hole of public safety. Be evidence driven!

I could go on but I'm too exhausted. I would tell you to "do some research" but then this probably is the result of you doing research by reading mainstream media, who are all idiots about this stuff. Maddening. And I could really do without the smug condescending opinions of some obviously ignorant 72 year old white guy who thinks he's all that. Less of Ruy Teixera please.

[pancakes3]

Lmao wow it didn’t take long for leopards to start eating faces. Great work Trump supporters

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this 100% did not happen. the gist of it might be true, and probably would have been helpful a month ago as an illustrative tool, but this should not be presented as reporting an actual event that happened.

Although now might be a good time to go device/appliance shopping before prices go up.

Well that didn't take long

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/steve-madden-to-slash-china-sourcing-as-trumps-tariff-plan-looms.html