Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Agreed Randle is not consistent enough to throw 33 millions per year. Plus we seriously need to think to get a PG is Mike don’t stand up. Ant is not good to conduct the game .

It will be sad to have a GM able to see that KAT was not the solution but neither is Randle….

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Agreed Randle is not consistent enough to throw 33 millions per year. Plus we seriously need to think to get a PG is Mike don’t stand up. Ant is not good to conduct the game .

It will be sad to have a GM able to see that KAT was not the solution but neither is Randle….

[Klomp]

People won't like the idea, but I would look to Atlanta. A trade of Randle for Bogdanovic and Nance would be an interesting baseline. I honestly think we won't find many better options out there. Not ones where teams will value Randle as much, at least.

[minimus]

People won't like the idea, but I would look to Atlanta. A trade of Randle for Bogdanovic and Nance would be an interesting baseline. I honestly think we won't find many better options out there. Not ones where teams will value Randle as much, at least.

Same idea, different trade partner. Randle for Cam Johnson, Zaire Williams and Clowney

[minimus]

Well, at least one (two) thing is clear: we should not trade NAW, because he has been our best perimeter defender AND we need to re-sign Reid, who has been our second best spot up shooter.

Watch on YouTube

[minimus]

Our defensive issues with Randle makes me think whether we should avoid 6'9" with 7'0 wingspan forwards if we want to build any defensive structure around Reid. In other words players of Blake Griffin archetype. Instead either go big and get guys like Walker Kessler, or go small and get guys like PJ Washington (6'8" with 7'3 wingspan).

Paul Reed was an interesting option for backup defensive minded big, but his new contract makes no sense for us. Bruno Fernando (6'9, 240lbs, 7'3") Day'Ron Sharpe (6'11, 260lbs, 7'0 wingspan)?

P.S. I wish we could get Tari Eason, he has been on fire recently

[Klomp]

There will be a big discussion in January and into February about who to target and who you are willing to give up.

I think everyone is in near agreement that we probably need to trade Randle, and we probably need a backup center in return. Point guard is also on the table to discuss.

However, when you get down to looking at contracts, player values and team needs, I am not sure it will be a seamless, slam dunk trade. First of all, you won't see them simply trade Randle for a backup center, because you probably won't realistically get enough value out of an incoming player making close to $30 million and using him as just a backup center. And due to Randle's player option, he may not fetch maximum value in a trade compared to what he can give the team on a nightly basis.

More realistically, a player might need to be attached to him in the trade. But due to second apron penalties, a reminder that the two contracts cannot be aggregated. So you couldn't combine Randle and DiVincenzo to trade for a contract like Ben Simmons, for example. It will have to be someone making up to the dollar amount of Randle and someone making up to the dollar amount of the second player included in the trade.

Similarly, the team probably has the opposite issue when it comes to Nickeil Alexander-Walker. As an expiring contract on a second apron team, it's natural to look at him as a player they might want to move. However, his small salary limits him to cheaper players who probably will not give the team on the court what NAW has.

So that's where combining them gets interesting, in my mind. Not aggregating, as I've already explained. But find a team or teams that can send back a $30 million player(s) and a $4 million player. The $4 million player can go toward filling the backup center need, while the $30 million package goes to either PF or the perimeter, based on the return.

I do not want to trade Alexander-Walker. But it might be an unfortunate circumstance as the team continues to reshuffle the deck and maintain maximum flexibility.

[minimus]

Randle for Cam Johnson, Zaire Williams?

I keep proposing Randle to Brooklyn because it might a good destination for him, they have money to offer and they have defensive structure to build around him.

On other hand Zaire Williams is former 10th pick, who finally showed some flashes as 3&D wing, can he be another NAW story in MIN? Cam Johnson is an elite shooter. We do give up size, playmaking and rebounding in this trade, but it will at least offer other alternatives such as increased 3PA rate and above average accuracy.

[moretins]

There will be a big discussion in January and into February about who to target and who you are willing to give up.

I think everyone is in near agreement that we probably need to trade Randle, and we probably need a backup center in return. Point guard is also on the table to discuss.

However, when you get down to looking at contracts, player values and team needs, I am not sure it will be a seamless, slam dunk trade. First of all, you won't see them simply trade Randle for a backup center, because you probably won't realistically get enough value out of an incoming player making close to $30 million and using him as just a backup center. And due to Randle's player option, he may not fetch maximum value in a trade compared to what he can give the team on a nightly basis.

More realistically, a player might need to be attached to him in the trade. But due to second apron penalties, a reminder that the two contracts cannot be aggregated. So you couldn't combine Randle and DiVincenzo to trade for a contract like Ben Simmons, for example. It will have to be someone making up to the dollar amount of Randle and someone making up to the dollar amount of the second player included in the trade.

Similarly, the team probably has the opposite issue when it comes to Nickeil Alexander-Walker. As an expiring contract on a second apron team, it's natural to look at him as a player they might want to move. However, his small salary limits him to cheaper players who probably will not give the team on the court what NAW has.

So that's where combining them gets interesting, in my mind. Not aggregating, as I've already explained. But find a team or teams that can send back a $30 million player(s) and a $4 million player. The $4 million player can go toward filling the backup center need, while the $30 million package goes to either PF or the perimeter, based on the return.

I do not want to trade Alexander-Walker. But it might be an unfortunate circumstance as the team continues to reshuffle the deck and maintain maximum flexibility.

I would Love Rob Williams

[Klomp]

Just a few of the realistic salary-matching options for trading partners that I see out there at the deadline:

ATL: Randle for Bogdanovic + Nance (other possibilities, as well)
BRK: Randle for Johnson + Williams
HOU: Randle for Brooks + Smith
POR: Randle for Avdija + Williams
WAS: Randle for Brogdon + Valanciunas

[Danimals]

Would love to see Randle traded for any of these reasons:
- a legit young center to develop behind Rudy (Kessler, Ware, Clingan, Duren, ?)
- truly find out if Naz can be a starter before giving him a big raise
- a better fit at PF (Grant, ?)
- open the rotation to focus on developing the young guys
- an upgrade at PG to move Mike to the bench
- additional flexibility to find a co-star for Ant

[shrink]

Well, at least one (two) thing is clear: we should not trade NAW, because he has been our best perimeter defender AND we need to re-sign Reid, who has been our second best spot up shooter.

Thanks for posting that video. I am always impressed with Nickiel whenever I hear him speak. He has great perspective on the NBA, and his role in it. He always talks about the team being his family, and Mike Conley is his brother. He seems very loyal to the team, perhaps because this was the first place where he got a real chance. Maybe those experiences helped mold him into such a mature person at 26, perhaps it’s because he’s always reading. Whatever it is, he is a great team-first guy.

[shrink]

I think we are under-shooting what Julius Randle’s trade value is. I wrote this snarky bit about Ingram, but it applies to Randle

Time and time again, we see borderline All Stars like Ingram get ravaged by posters on RealGM, but then in real life, we see them bring back bigger trade returns, or get bigger contracts than the masses predicted. And in our vanity, we are shocked and say how stupid the front office is .. and all the while refusing to change our valuations of other similar players.

In our protected little corner of the internet, there is no penalty for avoiding good-but-not-great players like Ingram and losing games, as long as it saves some money and lets us dream that our young player is a future super-duper star. Actual GM’s get crushed by owners and fans if the team doesn’t win. They need to take swings, or else they eventually get the bat taken out of their hands

Randle also has two All NBA selections under his belt, plus the name-recognition for playing for the Lakers and the Knicks. Casual fans want to see players they know score baskets, and Randle can do that.

[shrink]

Last point about trade mechanics:

Most teams are seeking consolidation trades, because to win, you want to get more talent on the floor than your opponent. The KAT trade was a de-consolidation trade (1-for-2), and it’s likely a Randle trade would be as well, since we can’t aggregate salaries. Now we have eight players that could start on many teams, and finding teams where each player COULD be a starter determines which teams will likely give up the best returns.

Bringing back multiple players means we should be looking around now, at the end of our bench, to see who we could deal to create an open roster spot. The fact that these guys are barely playing at all makes that harder.

I think we have only three locked in spots: Ant at SG, Gobert at C, and likely McDaniels at SF. It would be nice to keep guys like Conley, Naz and NAW, because they have given up something to be “one of us,” but it’s not guaranteed. I am open to trades with those guys, Randle, and DiVincenzo for the right return.

[Klomp]

I think we are under-shooting what Julius Randle’s trade value is. I wrote this snarky bit about Ingram, but it applies to Randle

Time and time again, we see borderline All Stars like Ingram get ravaged by posters on RealGM, but then in real life, we see them bring back bigger trade returns, or get bigger contracts than the masses predicted. And in our vanity, we are shocked and say how stupid the front office is .. and all the while refusing to change our valuations of other similar players.

In our protected little corner of the internet, there is no penalty for avoiding good-but-not-great players like Ingram and losing games, as long as it saves some money and lets us dream that our young player is a future super-duper star. Actual GM’s get crushed by owners and fans if the team doesn’t win. They need to take swings, or else they eventually get the bat taken out of their hands

Randle also has two All NBA selections under his belt, plus the name-recognition for playing for the Lakers and the Knicks. Casual fans want to see players they know score baskets, and Randle can do that.

I don't think it's that simple, in this specific case:
-Minnesota is a win-now team.
-Minnesota is a second apron team.
-Julius Randle is on a player option/potential expiring.
-Minnesota is already thin in the post, and would be trading away one here.
-Julius Randle is a high-usage big man, and likely would be a poor fit next to another high-usage big.
-Julius Randle probably needs to be paired with a defensive big or go to a team that largely ignores defense.
-Massive trades just aren't common at the trade deadline.

Those are things that narrow the scope of a potential trade return considerably.

[shrink]

I think we are under-shooting what Julius Randle’s trade value is. I wrote this snarky bit about Ingram, but it applies to Randle

Time and time again, we see borderline All Stars like Ingram get ravaged by posters on RealGM, but then in real life, we see them bring back bigger trade returns, or get bigger contracts than the masses predicted. And in our vanity, we are shocked and say how stupid the front office is .. and all the while refusing to change our valuations of other similar players.

In our protected little corner of the internet, there is no penalty for avoiding good-but-not-great players like Ingram and losing games, as long as it saves some money and lets us dream that our young player is a future super-duper star. Actual GM’s get crushed by owners and fans if the team doesn’t win. They need to take swings, or else they eventually get the bat taken out of their hands

Randle also has two All NBA selections under his belt, plus the name-recognition for playing for the Lakers and the Knicks. Casual fans want to see players they know score baskets, and Randle can do that.

I don't think it's that simple, in this specific case:
-Minnesota is a win-now team.
-Minnesota is a second apron team.
-Julius Randle is on a player option/potential expiring.
-Minnesota is already thin in the post, and would be trading away one here.
-Julius Randle is a high-usage big man, and likely would be a poor fit next to another high-usage big.
-Julius Randle probably needs to be paired with a defensive big or go to a team that largely ignores defense.
-Massive trades just aren't common at the trade deadline.

Those are things that narrow the scope of a potential trade return considerably.

I’m talking about Randle’s value. You can always bring in a third team to get something that fits us more specifically. (Get bigger return for Julius, but give up a little of that return for fit).

In fact, this is usually easier with a third team. Contenders may be interested in a win-now guy like Randle, but want to keep their own win-now players. If they send youth and picks, we can trade with a rebuilding third team, who doesn’t value their own win-now,player, and hopefully can also provide some financial flexibility.

That said, I agree that I wouldn’t expect an immediate Randle trade. Right now, teams want to see what they got. A few months from now, team needs and directions will be clearer.

[Danimals]

What teams would value Randle? Miami?

[Neeva]

clippers, hawks and detriot?? Probably charlotte too and lakers.

[Danimals]

clippers, hawks and detriot?? Probably charlotte too and lakers.

I don’t see it for the Hawks. They have Johnson and Rishacer at forward.

Clippers, but they don’t have much to offer.

Lakers could get desperate. I think Heat, Pistons, and Hornets could be possibilities.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

One thing is sure for me. Unless Randle improve a lot in defense ( miracle happen...), we have to trade him if we want to have a chance.
In the perfect world, we got a good back up center ( kessler style) and a starting PG if Mike confirm his slow down. I would like to see Naz as a starter as well before we give him big pay check.