Retro Player of the Year 1986-87 UPDATE — Magic Johnson

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Magic Johnson - 1st Team All-NBA. MVP. Finals MVP. Possibly the greatest season by any PG ever. This was Magic's peak combining GOAT-level playmaking (IMO the greatest ever playmaker) with very competent scoring that made him just a force to be reckoned with. Riley gave Magic the keys to the Ferrari with Kareem on the decline and boy did he deliver. Averaged 23.9/6.3/12.2 on 60.2 %TS (+6.4 rTS) in the RS then 21.8/7.7/12.2 on 60.7 %TS (+6.9 rTS) in the PS. What's often overlooked is his incredibly low turnover averages this season. 12.2 apg with 2.8 topg is just bonkers!

2. Larry Bird - 1st Team All-NBA. Dragged a now aging, more injured Celtics to the Finals and had a great PS. Bird is still a big all-around force. Averaged 28.1/9.2/7.6 on 61.2 %TS (+7.4 rTS) in the RS then 27.0/10.0/7.2 on 57.7 %TS (+4.8 rTS) in the PS.

3. Michael Jordan - 1st Team All-NBA. Ridiculous scoring season. MJ just became the greatest scorer in NBA history but his playmaking still lags far behind the next two men on this list which means he can't eclipse their impact just yet. Being on a mediocre team certainly doesn't help nor does getting swept in Round 1 in a project where results matter. He averaged 37.1/5.2/4.6 on 56.2 %TS (+2.4 rTS) in the RS then 35.7/7.0/6.0 on 52.9 %TS (+1.4 rTS) in the PS.

4. Hakeem Olajuwon - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Hakeem was still a great two-way player but his lack of offensive lift holds him back in a list like this. His playmaking isn't that great to match two all time greats (or MJ) in their primes. Sampson's career just ended so Hakeem would be stuck with a **** sandwich for the next 7 seasons in terms of supporting talent which is a shame. He averaged 23.4/11.4/2.9 on 55.4 %TS (+1.6 rTS) in the RS then 29.2/11.3/2.5 on 65.9 %TS (+11.7 rTS) in the PS.

5. Isiah Thomas - 2nd Team All-NBA. The Bad Boys finally arrived and Isiah started his statistical decline especially in the RS but he brought it in the PS. His Pistons outscored the Celtics and should have been in the Finals barring a miraculous play by Bird in Game 5. It was a hell of a series and Isiah showed his worth on the big stage. He averaged 20.6/3.9/10.0 on 52.8 %TS (-1.0 rTS) in the RS then 24.1/4.5/8.7 on 52.3 %TS (+0.6 rTS) in the PS.

OPOY

1. Magic Johnson - One of the offensive GOAT's at his absolute peak. #1 offense, better scoring volume, great PS run.

2. Larry Bird - Crazy combo of scoring and playmaking.

3. Michael Jordan - GOAT scorer but still needs to grow in playmaking.

DPOY

1. Mark Eaton - Anchored the #1 defense again. Dominant rim protector.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon - Anchored the #3 defense. Amazing mix of horizontal and vertical defense.

3. Kevin McHale - Anchored the #9 defense Celtics. Great PS.

[OhayoKD]

With that being said, his 1987 season is probably underrated defensively. Still, 1988 is one of the best defensive seasons by a non-big in NBA history so he still improved a bunch for sure on that end.

The funny thing is without the pretty well-established unrivalled home-cooking he enjoyed in 1988...
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2387572
His defensive bbr, the main basis of your evaluation of him as defender, is pretty much the same as it is in 1987.

Of course it was Oakley who joined the team and Oakley who saw a big minutes spike as the Bulls defense improved(Bulls defense was the same with or without Jordan in 1986), but that gets in the way of the "one of the best non-big defensive seasons ever" narrative

What is defensive bbr? The inflation of his stocks is well documented in other threads and there is no need to rehash it. 4.8 stocks per game is so utterly ridiculous too that it doesn't shock me that it's somewhat inflated.

Basketball reference. And it's not somewhat inflated, it is more inflated than any other player's seasonal steal average for the season. By away SPG, Jordan comes in [b]4th

I watched plenty of games of 1988 Jordan and the thing that impresses me is just the sheer motor. Whether they are steals, blocks or neither, his energy is just causing so much havoc. He's blowing up so many plays by the opposing team it is just ridiculous. At some point, opponents are even throwing errant passes or dribbling the ball out of bounds because he just scares the bejezus out of them when he pounces out of nowhere. That's what I saw on tape and that's why his 1988 season is among the best ever defensively by a non-big.

You saw what you wanted on tape, which is why

1. you used MJ's block averages to argue a below average rim-protector could not be offering significant less rim-protection vs a low-block non-big, like Oakley, when in fact he is massively disadvantaged:

Spoiler:

I wouldn’t say that analysis of 40 possessions in a random game is particularly persuasive of anything.
Alright, then how about we do another one. This time from 1988 when Jordan was the leading shotblocker on his team and 16th in blocks in the whole NBA. The first full game that shows up from CHI vs DET on youtube is Game 3 where Jordan was one of two Chicago players to record a block:

Watch on YouTube

Distribution went

Oakley 13
Corzine 9
Pippen 8
Grant 6
Jordan 3
Sam Vincient 2
Rory Sparrow 1
Elston Turner 1

(Doesn't add up exactly to 40 as there were a couple splits)

Some notes:
-> rim-load only tracks usage, not efficacy, I'd say Oakley was very effective, Corzine not, Pippen Grant and Vincient were also effective, Sparrow and Turner not.
-> Jordan was very effective the one time the other team drove, but the first 2 times he's credited as the paint-protector were quick possessions where the other team didn't really try to drive.
-> Oakley had the most possessions where if I gave secondary credit he'd also be the #2, Grant and Pippen would come after

2. Spent years using the steal and block averages that we now know were complete nonsense(along with formulas they're baked into) to present Jordan as "one of the most impactful non-big defenders ever". As opposed to what he actually was, not even the most valuable non-big defender on his own team.

By the way, Oakley played more minutes in 1987 than 1988.

Incidentally the Bulls big defensive spike came in 87, not 88. Funny how that works

And yes despite the decline in minutes, the Bulls' D went from -0.7 rDRtg (11th) to -2.5 rDRtg (3rd) between those seasons.

Oakley and Jordan's minute total barely changed between 87 and 88. You know what did change? The Bulls adding Pippen, Grant, and Vincient, three defensive specialists, 2 of whom already were doing the most important part of defense better than Jordan did.

Jordan as the catalyst in 88 or 87 seems unlikely, yeah.

[B-Mitch 30]

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Magic Johnson

This season is considered Magic’s best, and for good reason. With Kareem finally hitting the wall and averaging less than 20 points per game, Magic raised his own scoring to nearly 24 points per game, while leading the NBA in assists and keeping the Lakers as the best offense in the league. Magic retained his momentum in the postseason, and had several memorable plays, such as one of the longest shots in NBA history: https://youtu.be/ndmBCqds_gc?si=v_eS8Bf9HodqzAv6&t=295, and his baby skyhook against the Celtics that helped the Lakers win the Finals and become the team of the decade.

2. Charles Barkley

The Sixers this year averaged a nearly 50% eFG, and were 5th in offensive rebounding, and 3rd in free throws per field goal attempt. Barkley became the shortest player to ever lead the NBA in rebounding, and scored 23 points per game at the highest efficiency in the league, while also being 2nd on his team in assists, albeit with a huge amount of turnovers.

3. Clyde Drexler

The Trail Blazers weren’t as good at offensive rebounding as the Sixers, but they were in the top 10 of the stat, while having less turnovers and drawing even more fouls. Clyde was the Trail Blazers 2nd leading scorer and playmaker, while also being decent at rebounding.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Hakeem Olajuwon

Despite the Rockets losing Ralph Sampson for half the season, they made the playoffs thanks to being one of the league’s best defenses. Hakeem was obviously responsible for that, playing in nearly every game and leading the team in every defensive stat.

2. Mark Eaton

The Jazz were arguably a better defense than the Rockets this year, but with Stockton and Malone starting to emerge, I question how much of that was because of Eaton compared to prior seasons. Still, Eaton led the NBA in blocks once again, and their defense was great, so clearly Eaton was doing what he needed to do.

3. Terry Cummings

Despite the Bucks losing Sidney Moncrief for most of the year, they remained one of the best defenses in the league. Cummings was 20th in defensive rebounds, 16th in steals, and about tied with Jack Sikma for blocks on the Bucks.

Player of the Year

1. Magic Johnson

Magic was simply the best this year, ‘nuff said.

2. Clyde Drexler

Though the Trail Blazers and the Sixers were both mediocre defensively, I’ve heard way more positive talk about Clyde’s defense than Barkley’s, which gives him the nod in my opinion.

3. Charles Barkley

At the same time, very few players have ever had Barkley’s volume and efficiency, and his rebounding did contribute a bit on defense.

4. Hakeem Olajuwon

In addition to his defensive prowess, Hakeem scored a lot and efficiently, and had some of the best numbers of his career in the playoffs, though the Rockets lost in the second round.

5. Terry Cummings

Similar to Hakeem, Cummings also scored well in the regular season and playoffs, on his way to a narrow second round loss.

[Paulluxx9000]

1 Magic Johnson
2 Hakeem Olajuwon
3 Micheal Jordan
4 Larry Bird
5 Charles Barkley
Top 2 is obvious. I already put down what got me putting these guys where I put earlier and most of that is the same for this year too:

Spoiler:

Over the previous years the offense goes from Kareem-centric to Magic-centric. A lot of people lament Magic not being given the reigns earlier but it’s not so easy. Prime Kareem completely invalidates high-level defense if you use him right.(and who was using him correctly…) Even now he is a huge headache for opposing teams but, you know who also invalidates high-level defense entirely? Magic.
It’s easy to just look at the assists but if you go by the assists Isiah isn’t that far off. Here’s what Magic has that Isiah doesn’t. You have 5 guys there to make sure Magic or one of his teammates doesn’t score. But if there’s just a sliver of daylight. Just a few guys ever so slightly overextended…Magic might just render all 5 of those defenders moot in a flash. He has unbelievable ball control, he’s big and powerful at the basket, he uses his eyes better than anyone, and has a cannon for an arm. He can defeat your defense basically himself. He might not end the possession with a tough contested fadeaway, but he’ll do it his way. And there’s only one other guy you could ever say that about. And he isn’t going to be on anyone’s ballot until 2004.(unless you’re really into him and are a “High school LeBron was the level of an NBA All-Star” (real people that exist))
Finally, his brain. His advanced stats are ridiculous But that doesn’t tell you how someone makes his teammates better. Magic’s impact is ridiculous. Magic is the smartest player on the court every time he steps on it(yes, smarter than Bird). He knows where he needs to go and where you need to go and he’ll make sure you and him both go where you need to go at the time and place you both need to be there. And he does that better than anyone else and everyone who comes after, probably even including that 2004 guy(who’s better at a couple other things).
Is his team good? Yes. Is Kareem amazing? Definitely. But we seem him still doing all this with explicitly fine and not Kareem teammates when he crosses 30

Spoiler:

And here’s a big man. Best defender. One of the best offensive players in the league. Maybe even top 3 in the playoffs.
Hakeem Olajuwon isn’t perfect. Definitely not this young. He has a perchance for dumb fouls, overhelping, ill-advised shots, all that jazz. But there’s no one else in the league who blends offensive threat, and defensive dynamism like he does and he had himself a dream (heh) of a playoff run. Sampson played great those playoffs (at least before the finals)), key guys stepped up, but this was Hakeem’s show and that show bulldozed the west while holding itself pretty well against a proper superteam even with the key guys went off-key.

Unfortunately for circumstances completely out of his control Hakeem doesn’t dominate the west. Magic does, and then the finals.
I imagine people are going to want Jordan with these two mostly due to not really getting how proving things works (Leader in PER!), but he’s in much better situation, his team improves from the off-season, no coke bans, no mega teammate injuries, no worst front office in the league? And he still wins less. That’s game,
Still he’s a legit-all timer like the first two and I’m not letting his score-keeper’s return presents in 1988 make me pretend there was a jump from 87. This is more or less who Jordan is going to be from here to 1990 when his defensive strengths start to deteriorate becoming weaknesses by 92.
He isn’t the take everyone out proposition Magic or Lebron are, but he is a take 2-3-4 threat and putting him in a different conversation from Bird. He cannot offer you the latent possession to possession impact offered by Olajuwon or even a Lebron or Pippen by virtue of size and/or brain, but he can make a few high value plays each night which must then be balanced against a somewhat high stream of negative decisions.
The numbers, meaningful ones, put him in the same class as my top 2. Platooning even gives him an edge if you go by the small small bits, but he is also given leeway to show his full powers earlier, largely untested in unusual circumstance, and quite unambiguously the worst of the 3 when it comes to those pesky intangibles his supporters worship without true examination.
He is confused for someone who wins at all costs, but really he is someone who will produce at all costs (at least what he deems to be production) causing chagrin and turmoil whenever that production comes into conflict with the prospect of winning. It was true at UCF, true under Doug Collins, true but buried with Phil Jackson, and true for the world to see in Washington.
While he is not a pretender in the playoffs, he is neither a true riser like Olajuwon. He resides more in the middle
I will not put him below inferior players just because he mostly lost. I also will not put him above superior ones because formulas composed to suit him produce outputs that similarly suit him.
Not much too different for Bird:

Spoiler:

Bird’s not at his best in the playoffs but I’m not going to put up inferior players just because he moved the wrong way at the wrong time. There’s lots of holes in his game but I think what I said about Magic about making guys better applies here too. I’m not going to use this as some get-out-of-jail free card and inevitably vote Bird top 2 every year like some might, but this year there’s only one real all-time guy and that guy is above. Moses was good but he’s not of that calibre anymore. Next year there’ll be two all-time calibre guys so Bird will slip, but for POY thread I can only rank players against who they played in that season and Bird is top 2 for me.

The league now has 3 all-timers. Bird slips to 4th.
Chuck profiles as follows:
Great efficient scorer, good passer, good rebounder. Bad defender but the other stuff is enough.

[capfan33]

1. Magic- maybe the goat offensive season/player.
2. Bird- step down from previous year but was still the best player on a finals team.
3. Hakeem- don’t think he was significantly worse than the prior year.
4. MJ- defense would take a major leap up next season and his playmaking would improve. Not as impressed with his impact in 87 and he lost in the first round. Close with McHale but I think his scoring is too good to put him below, but may change my mind.
4. McHale- close copilot of the Celtics, had an incredible individual scoring season.

[AEnigma]

1.Magic Johnson
2. Michael Jordan
3. Larry Bird
4. Hakeem Olajuwon
5. Charles Barkley

With McHale close behind Barkley

Ballots need to provide reasoning for me to count them. You have tightrope-walked the line a couple of times previously (1975 and 1982), but this is well past it.

[ShaqAttac]

MAGIC
most impact mvp and wins chip. easy 1,

HAKEEM
screwed by team but great d and great o

BARKLEY
45 wins even though he lose a 3 time MVP and crazy ts. Almost beats 50-win team

JORDAN
scores alot but only winning 40 a bad look.

BIRD
I was gonna put him higher but it seems he was choking all pos and la made a good arg his team choked a bunch too.

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 14 approved voters: Djoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, ShaqAttac, ILikeShaiGuys, Penbeast, OhayoKD, Paulluxx, konr0167, homecourtloss, One_and_Done, trelos, capfan33, and Narigo. DJoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, trelos, and OhayoKD also voted for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

1986-87 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Magic Johnson (6) (Unanimous)

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Magic Johnson   5   0   0    25    1.000
2. Larry Bird    0   3   1    10    0.400
3. Michael Jordan  0   1   3   6    0.240
4. Charles Barkley   0   1   0    3    0.120
5. Clyde Drexler   0   0   1    1    0.040

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — Hakeem Olajuwon

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Hakeem Olajuwon    3   2   0    21   0.840
2. Mark Eaton    2   3   0    19    0.760
3. Charles Oakley    0   0   2    2    0.080
4. Kevin McHale   0   0   1    1    0.040
4. Bill Laimbeer   0   0   1    1    0.040
4. Terry Cummings   0   0   1    1    0.040

Retro Player of the Year — Magic Johnson (3) (Unanimous)

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Magic Johnson  14  0  0  0  0   140   1.000
2. Hakeem Olajuwon   0  6  2  4  1   65   0.464
3. Larry Bird  0  5  3  4  1   63    0.450
4. Michael Jordan   0  2  6  4  0   56   0.400
5. Charles Barkley  0  0  2  1  3   16   0.114
6. Kevin McHale  0  0  0  1  6   9   0.064
7a. Isiah Thomas   0  0  1  0  2   7   0.050
7b. Clyde Drexler   0  1  0  0  0   7   0.050
9. Terry Cummings   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.007

In the prior project, there were 19 votes, with no overlap. These are the aggregated results of the two projects across 33 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Magic Johnson  32  0  1  0  0   325   0.985
2. Larry Bird  0  19  8  4  1   186    0.564
3. Michael Jordan   1  7  18  5  0   164   0.497
4. Hakeem Olajuwon   0  6  3  17  4   112   0.339
5. Charles Barkley  0  0  2  2  5   21   0.064
6. Kevin McHale  0  0  0  2  14   20   0.061
7. Dominique Wilkins   0  0  0  3  6   14   0.045
8a. Isiah Thomas   0  0  1  0  2   7   0.021
8b. Clyde Drexler   0  1  0  0  0   7   0.021
10. Terry Cummings   0  0  0  0  1   1   0.003

1988 thread will open shortly.

[tsherkin]

Wewt.

Been a fun ride reading all this stuff so far.

[Top10alltime]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tQaPe6OaeE1zkWEf3QKd0SwShL7qZodAOm_E8xPRPJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is my magic johnson game 3 87 finals tracking.

Final tally -
18x doubled
19x creation
15 EDTOs
39 DTOs

[f4p]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tQaPe6OaeE1zkWEf3QKd0SwShL7qZodAOm_E8xPRPJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is my magic johnson game 3 87 finals tracking.

Final tally -
18x doubled
19x creation
15 EDTOs
39 DTOs

I'm not sure I really agree with these new creation metrics, but are you putting these together somewhere. It would be good to see them all in one place because they probably won't get noticed just tacked onto RPOY threads.

[OhayoKD]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tQaPe6OaeE1zkWEf3QKd0SwShL7qZodAOm_E8xPRPJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is my magic johnson game 3 87 finals tracking.

Final tally -
18x doubled
19x creation
15 EDTOs
39 DTOs

I'm not sure I really agree with these new creation metrics, but are you putting these together somewhere. It would be good to see them all in one place because they probably won't get noticed just tacked onto RPOY threads.

Top10, Jff, and I posts our stuff in the film-tracking discord you were dm'd about. Lebronny posts his stuff on a tiktok account.

I'll probably make a compilation post at some point but at the moment it's not safe for new posters to create threads here so

[penbeast0]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tQaPe6OaeE1zkWEf3QKd0SwShL7qZodAOm_E8xPRPJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is my magic johnson game 3 87 finals tracking.

Final tally -
18x doubled
19x creation
15 EDTOs
39 DTOs

I'm not sure I really agree with these new creation metrics, but are you putting these together somewhere. It would be good to see them all in one place because they probably won't get noticed just tacked onto RPOY threads.

Top10, Jff, and I posts our stuff in the film-tracking discord you were dm'd about. Lebronny posts his stuff on a tiktok account.

I'll probably make a compilation post at some point but at the moment it's not safe for new posters to create threads here so

Why do you say it's not safe? There are a few rude posters; you've been called out probably as much as anyone on the board. And there is a degree of group think here from having the same debates year after year. But it's a place where if you have an intelligent take and you are willing to defend it, you are welcome to do so.

[OhayoKD]

I'm not sure I really agree with these new creation metrics, but are you putting these together somewhere. It would be good to see them all in one place because they probably won't get noticed just tacked onto RPOY threads.

Top10, Jff, and I posts our stuff in the film-tracking discord you were dm'd about. Lebronny posts his stuff on a tiktok account.

I'll probably make a compilation post at some point but at the moment it's not safe for new posters to create threads here so

Why do you say it's not safe? There are a few rude posters; you've been called out probably as much as anyone on the board. And there is a degree of group think here from having the same debates year after year. But it's a place where if you have an intelligent take and you are willing to defend it, you are welcome to do so.

I say it because posters who had no knowledge of realgm's existence shortly before joining have received and shown screencaps of instant "previously banned poster" bans upon creating threads.

[penbeast0]

Then bring it up to mods in PM, not in a thread dedicated to 1987's season.

[OhayoKD]

Then bring it up to mods in PM, not in a thread dedicated to 1987's season.

Yessir

[OhayoKD]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tQaPe6OaeE1zkWEf3QKd0SwShL7qZodAOm_E8xPRPJI/edit?usp=drivesdk

This is my magic johnson game 3 87 finals tracking.

Final tally -
18x doubled
19x creation
15 EDTOs
39 DTOs

43/48 x gives us a possession estimate of 82.

Using that we get, per possession, .18 EDTOs and .475 dtos (Magic had 9 assists)
For comparison...

Jordan, 1991 Finals Game 2 (13 assists, also tracked by top10alltime)

Spoiler:

This means per-possession Jordan had around .11 EDTOS and .28 DTOS.

Jordan, 1991 Finals Game 5 (10 assists):

.225 EDTOs, .5 DTOs

Lebron 2007 Game 1 (4 assists)

Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs, .75 DTOS

Lebron 2007 Game 4 (10 assists, Tsherkin did not track DTOs)

.44 edtos per possession