The trade market for pitchers

[Ex-hippie]

TheUrbanZealot wrote:
- Santana

And he only wants to go to Boston or New York.

Where did you hear that?

Maybin's the only player the Marlins received worth any value

Wha... wha... wha??? Miller is a pitcher who's very much in the same conversation as Hughes, Buchholtz/Lester, Lincecum, etc. I know, TANSTAAPP, but this kid is ready.

[Ex-hippie]

Well, who needs Santana, Bedard, Kuroda or Lincecum now?

Ladies and gentlemen, your newest Seattle Mariner: R.A. Dickey!

[TheUrbanZealot]

If that is true Hippie, that would truly be a little on this side of pathetic. R.A. Dickey, yet again, a former 1st rd. pick w/ loads of potential that hasn't reached it Why do we keep gambling on sub-mediocrity? It's completely counter-productive.

Just for the hell of it I looked up Dickey's stats from last year. If this is true, then wow. Just wow:

1 game
3.1 innings pitched
6 home runs
7 earned runs

I checked mlb.com AND baseball-reference.com just to be sure. Any pitcher that gives up 6 home runs in one game should NOT be in MLB. Period.

I am going to presume he is signed to a minor league contract. If we signed him to be in the rotation...then... lol

[Ex-hippie]

Bavasi never fails. What a s**tty Rule V pickup.

I remember that game of Dickey's where he gave up six homers...he was sent down to the minors immediately after that and he never returned. Not only does he royally suck, he's one of the ugliest players in baseball.

OT: USS Mariner on the Jose Guillen arbitration debacle:

Also, Jose Guillen signed with the Royals for 3 years and $36 million. Because the M

[Ex-hippie]

I'm not sure what's going on with Dickey, actually. (I think his initials, instead of just "R.A.," should be "U.R.A." Heh heh.)

Supposedly he is reinventing himself as a knuckleballer. The stats you looked up were actually not from last season; they were from 2006. In 2007 he signed a minor-league deal with Milwaukee, spent the season with their AAA affiliate in Nashville and was the PCL Pitcher of the Year. He signed another minor league contract with Minnesota about a week ago, and then went to the Mariners in the Rule 5 draft, which took place today. How a guy signs a contract with one team and then goes to another team in the Rule 5 draft a week later, I have no idea. In fact, I don't even understand how a 32-year-old major league veteran can even be taken in the Rule 5 draft; I thought it was mainly for guys who had been kicking around the minors for X number of years and didn't get on a 40-man roster, so they have this draft to give them a shot. I don't get it at all. But that's what happened.

Anyway, it's obviously a low-risk move; he's signed to a minor league deal, if he makes the roster then great, and if he doesn't then I guess it's back to Minnesota. (Isn't that how the Rule 5 draft works?) I don't think Bavasi exactly considers it the centerpiece of his offseason. Or at least I hope he doesn't.

FWIW, ex-Mariner Travis Blackley was also a Rule 5 pick.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

The problem with Bavasi is he'll go to the press with this move and say it's the best possible move he could make using all available resources. And I highly doubt that that's the case.

[TheUrbanZealot]

It's just another typical Bavasi "high risk, no reward" gamble. The guy was a 1st rd pick in 96'. He had talent obviously, but after 10 yrs, as a former 1st rounder, if you haven't developed in a regular starting/bullpen pitcher by your, oh say, TENTH YEAR, then there is a major problem.

Bavasi seems convinced to gamble on pitchers (players in general) who have shown absolutely zero in the form of consistency and were considered "premier players" at some point. He is looking for that magical turn around- where he finds a pitcher off the scrap heap that ends up being a sub 4 ERA regular. It's just not going to happen...

In the meantime, the major players are pouncing on big names (i.e. Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees), or at least attempting to- which leads me to...

I am convinced now that we are simply in this for the business. We are in a very fortunate position in that we have an international superstar that we are milking for his ability to bring in world-wide revenue, while having very mediocre/average players at every other position. We have teams around us that are loading their teams with tier 1/2 pitchers and players, while we are relying on the Miguel Batista's and Jeff Weaver scrap heaps.

My thing is this- if we are not going to go for the gusto, why not just go the other way, bring up all the young guys and keep Ichiro around for revenue? I just don't understand the concept of staying mediocre...

[Basketball Jesus]

Know what pisses me off more than the Dickey selection? That Michael Gardner, Travis Blackley, and Callix Crabbe were still out there. Any three of these guys could feasibly have played prominent roles on the 25-man this season. Crabbe especially.

[Ex-hippie]

It's just another typical Bavasi "high risk, no reward" gamble.

What risk? Please explain.

[Sweezo]

Where did you hear that?

It was one of the many press items that came out in the past week. Which doesn't make it accurate, but since the Twins appear to have done the bulk of their negotiating with the Red Sox and Yankees, it's possible there's some merit to it...why would the Twins spend time negotiating extensively with teams that Johan wouldn't agree to go to?

Santana, who has a full-no trade clause and intends to wield it to land a six-year contract extension from any team striking a deal for him, told the Twins that he would veto a trade to any team except the Yankees or Red Sox. He also warned them that he would not accept a deal in-season, forcing the Twins to move him this week or lose him to free agency after the 2008 season, when his current contract expires.

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/sp_bb_sox03_12-03-07_D683VHV_v14.29961f1.html

[TheUrbanZealot]

-= original quote snipped =-



What risk? Please explain.

Uh, perhaps the risk of giving up another 6 home runs in a game?

[Ex-hippie]

-= original quote snipped =-



Uh, perhaps the risk of giving up another 6 home runs in a game?

He's coming in at a very low salary with a chance to prove in Spring Training that he's good enough to pitch in the majors. If he doesn't prove that, he won't make the team. If he does prove that -- if management has a good hard look at his knuckleball and decides he can do a decent job at getting major leaguers out -- then I trust their judgment. A risk would be signing him to a multiyear deal for millions of dollars, being stuck with him. If he makes the team and really does suck enough to give up 6 homers in a game, he's gone, and the team has blown maybe a game or two. Very little risk.

[TheUrbanZealot]

-= original quote snipped =-



He's coming in at a very low salary with a chance to prove in Spring Training that he's good enough to pitch in the majors. If he doesn't prove that, he won't make the team. If he does prove that -- if management has a good hard look at his knuckleball and decides he can do a decent job at getting major leaguers out -- then I trust their judgment. A risk would be signing him to a multiyear deal for millions of dollars, being stuck with him. If he makes the team and really does suck enough to give up 6 homers in a game, he's gone, and the team has blown maybe a game or two. Very little risk.

Well, if you are going to look at it from strictly a fiscal perspective. I think any player you place in a game poses a risk that's predicated on their history, not just salary.

In any sense, I don't want to see this guy fluke in pre-season, then end up w/ 1 of the starting spots, only to end up being axed in the process...

[Ex-hippie]

Look, I just don't see what the big deal is. Every team invites some guys to camp who have kicked around between the majors and minors, mostly failing in the majors, and giving them a chance to make it. Sometimes they make the team, sometimes they don't.

If the M's strategy is to fill the back of the rotation with someone cheap, it makes sense to throw as many bodies into the mix as they can. Ryan Feierabend, Cha-Seung Baek, now Dickey. Let 'em compete. If Dickey looks good in camp and then sucks in the regular season, he will have blown a couple of games, they can send him on the way and Baek will come in. This strategy might or might not be the best one, but there is a logic as long as money saved in one place means money spent (wisely, of course) in another place.

The financial aspect is everything here. When it's Jeff Weaver and you're spending $8 million on him, you feel obligated to keep him on the roster and give him another shot (even though this is an irrational "sunk costs" approach, we all know that this is what Bavasi was thinking). When it's Dickey you just move on. He'll stick around as long as he deserves to and not a day longer. Yes, when I first posted the Dickey acquisition I was being somewhat derisive, but mainly because it was such an anticlimactic ending to a period of wild speculation. Not because it was tying up the team or anything.

Again, every team has one or two old washed-up retreads in camp. Maybe you'd rather it be Freddy Garcia or something?

[TheUrbanZealot]

Look, I just don't see what the big deal is. Every team invites some guys to camp who have kicked around between the majors and minors, mostly failing in the majors, and giving them a chance to make it. Sometimes they make the team, sometimes they don't.

If the M's strategy is to fill the back of the rotation with someone cheap, it makes sense to throw as many bodies into the mix as they can. Ryan Feierabend, Cha-Seung Baek, now Dickey. Let 'em compete. If Dickey looks good in camp and then sucks in the regular season, he will have blown a couple of games, they can send him on the way and Baek will come in. This strategy might or might not be the best one, but there is a logic as long as money saved in one place means money spent (wisely, of course) in another place.

The financial aspect is everything here. When it's Jeff Weaver and you're spending $8 million on him, you feel obligated to keep him on the roster and give him another shot (even though this is an irrational "sunk costs" approach, we all know that this is what Bavasi was thinking). When it's Dickey you just move on. He'll stick around as long as he deserves to and not a day longer. Yes, when I first posted the Dickey acquisition I was being somewhat derisive, but mainly because it was such an anticlimactic ending to a period of wild speculation. Not because it was tying up the team or anything.

Again, every team has one or two old washed-up retreads in camp. Maybe you'd rather it be Freddy Garcia or something?

Everything is not financial. Remember, the Mariners tried going w/ their own young guns to no avail too. If we relegate this debate to looking at players strictly by their (even small) financial "risk", then my point will never be driven home. Even if we look at it from your standpoint- a low risk fiscal move, then it still doesn't change the bottomline- that Bavasi has shown a steady propensity towards "settling" for bottom tier scrap heap talent.

The problem is exasperated when you look at what other teams around the Mariners are doing. If the Mariners are doing so well financially (supposedly 3rd in revenue), then why aren't we passing some of that down to a better product? Does Bavasi honestly think the MIguel Batistas and RA Dickey's have a chance to compete w/ Dice K's and Schilling's? Perhaps if we boasted a Yankees-type power lineup we could get away with our pitching shortcomings, but we are light on BOTH sides of the plate.

Those scrap-heaps ultimately end up being a waste of time. While we could be signing a consistent, bonafide ACE, we scour the scrap heap wire and pick up fluke pitchers that have a good series, or good month long run. The one thing you have to remember, more than ANY position, is that the good ptichers ALWAYS seperate themselves from the bad. How? Consistency. You don't see their ERA's waver from around 3-4 for 5 straight years, to 8 all of a sudden, and back and forth and so on. They are steady. We NEVER have gone after and OBTAINED one of those steady pitchers.

Look at the history of the Jeff Weavers, Batistas, etc. There is no consistency, yet we are content w/ them as long as they eat up innings...

All I would like is for Bavasi, for once, to come through with someone whom you know every 5 days is going to give us a 80/20 chance at winning. We don't have that dominant power pitcher (felix is not there yet) who commands respect. Jarrod Washburn should be our FIFTH starter!

[Ex-hippie]

Everything is not financial. Remember, the Mariners tried going w/ their own young guns to no avail too. If we relegate this debate to looking at players strictly by their (even small) financial "risk", then my point will never be driven home.

Your point has been "driven home" just fine. It's just not a good point. Once again: absolutely every team has someone like R.A. Dickey in camp, an aging wash-out with another opportunity to make the team. Boston and New York bring in guys like Royce Clayton and Josh Phelps every year. When Seattle does it, somehow you think it's "high risk." You're wrong.

[Sweezo]

Does Bavasi honestly think the MIguel Batistas and RA Dickey's have a chance to compete w/ Dice K's and Schilling's?

I agree. We should have chosen Dice-K or Shilling in the Rule V draft and spent that $25k on them....

Batista was brought in to be a MOR pitcher, and he did just fine in that role.

Getting worked up about Dickey is getting worked up for the point of getting worked up. As hippie mentioned, every team brings in vets to round out their roster before spring training. And this move in no way precludes the team from spending on another pitcher. The argument you're trying to set up is flawed.

Perhaps if we boasted a Yankees-type power lineup we could get away with our pitching shortcomings, but we are light on BOTH sides of the plate.

The Yanks spent a ton of money on pitching last year. And what kind of results did they get? They still had to rely on their lineup to carry them...

[TheUrbanZealot]

-= original quote snipped =-



The Yanks spent a ton of money on pitching last year. And what kind of results did they get? They still had to rely on their lineup to carry them...

The RA dickey's and Miguel Batistas are expected to "round out" our rotation. Next year in Boston, Schilling and Dick-K will "round out" their rotation.

It's silly to ignore the modality in which pitchers were obtained- Who are we looking to to complete our pitching staff? Rule 5 and 35+ yr old nomads, or consistent sub 4 veteran ace pitchers?

Tell you what, while you seem more content to argue w/ me about our flawed means of obtatining talent, management will be fielding a mediocre product that has no shot at competing.

The Yankees spent a lot of money on talent, so what? The Yankees aren't a fair EXCLUSIVE barometer since they generate more revenue than like half the teams put together (sarcastically speaking of course, but you get the point). You have a series of teams in our OWN LEAGUE - Anaheim, Dtroit, Boston, NY among others that have shown a desire to improve their team via big names in free-agency/trade.

We need to give ourselves an opportunity to compete. Signing rule 5 draftees may present a low fiscal risk, but it tells you the approach management is trying to take- bandaiding an already bad hole (starting pitching).

At some point we are going to have to realize that the fluke Florida model doesn't work 99% of the time. You see, 99% of the time, you need to have more than once decent, CONSISTENT starting pitcher that usually is going to cost an arm and a leg. Boston fits the model to a T right now, and they are STILL looking to add the biggest ace of them all. Do you think they are scouring rule 5 draftees to "round out " their pitching staff?

[MrNate]

What free-agent pitcher do you want the Mariners to sign? Carlos Silva? Or are you more down with Matt Clement? I mean seriously there is no one out there and I"d rather not give Silva 8 million per to come stink up the joint. If people aren't interested in Jones/Morrow for their Johan's and Bedard's there is nothing Bavasi can do about it. We can't give up the whole farm (Wlad/Aumont/Truinfel/Tuiasasopo/Ramirez) for one guy, because this team is more than just one guy away. Be patient, if Bavasi decides to start the season with exactly the same team as we had last year, than I think it's time to get worked up.

Also, don't complain about RA Dickey, it's not like he will make the team, and if he does, it'll be because he pitched out of his goddamn mind in Spring Training and has improved or something. Bavasi didn't make that signing and say to himself "Hot damn! Well here's the answer!" Bavasi is in there trying to get Johan, and Bedard, as the Mariners have been mentioned in all those rumors. So to say management is not taking an aggressive enough approach is a bit premature I think.

[Ex-hippie]

Bavasi didn't make that signing and say to himself "Hot damn! Well here's the answer!"

Exactly... this is the point I've been making.

The Yankees just signed LaTroy Hawkins, a veteran pitcher with a long history of being solid at times and very shaky more of the time. It's for about $3.5 million, a lot more than the M's are paying Dickey. I doubt there are posters on the Yankees boards pulling their hair out about how their team is risking everything with this move. ("OMG! How are we going to compete against Papelbon, Okajima, Timlin, Delcarmen and Hansen with this guy? It's hopeless!") They don't compare Hawkins with Papelbon because that would be silly... just like comparing Dickey wtih Beckett and Dice-K is silly.

Anjonez, I mean TUZ, if you want to compare Dickey with someone on the Boston staff, at least let it be Julian Tavarez or fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. In fact, compare him to the Wakefield of 1995, whom the Red Sox picked up off the scrap heap after Pittsburgh released him. Do you think Red Sox fans were proclaiming doom and gloom back then, comparing Wakefield to the big-name Cleveland rotation of Dennis Martinez, Orel Hershiser, Charles Nagy et al., and concluding that the team would never be competitive? No, they haven't, because that would have been insane.

And it would have been insane in 2006-07 if their fans had thought the sky was falling just because Royce Clayton, Gabe Kapler, Alex Cora, Javy Lopez (the one who was good once but isn't anymore), Javier Lopez (the one who was never any good), Eric Hinske, Dustan Mohr, Keith Foulke, Jason Johnson, Rudy Seanez, Kevin Jarvis and Mike Holtz shuffled on and off their major league roster. They didn't, because none of these were "Hot damn! Here's the answer!" players. Players come and go, sometimes they do well, sometimes they don't work out... this happens on every team.

If the M's just take Dickey and don't make another single move for pitching help, I'll be disappointed. We at least agree on that. But no one believes that this means they are giving up on their efforts. They might just fail -- it looks like trading partners and free agents are asking for a ton of value in return. But I would rather see them let the back of their rotation be settled between Dickey, Feierabend, Morrow, Baek, Rowland-Smith and whoever wants to compete than throw $8 million at Kyle Lohse, who might not be an improvement at all. That's the smart way to build a team. Again (this ain't rocket science), money saved under the budget means more money that can be put to better use elsewhere.