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Political Roundtable Part XXXIII

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1521 » by AFM » Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:37 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
AFM wrote:Now show the average cost of housing vs wages.

https://www.npr.org/2024/06/20/nx-s1-5005972/home-prices-wages-paychecks-rent-housing-harvard-report

They’ve increased 50% since Covid started. There’s an entire generation of kids who will never own a home in this country. Is it Biden’s fault? Will Trump fix it. Of course not. But the incumbent party tends to get voted out when things like this happen.

With a great deal of respect.

What are the drivers of the increased costs of housing? When did this trend begin?

But I agree with your main point, voters are largely ignorant on this issue and they tend to vote against their own interests.


During covid specifically the cost of lumber increased about 400% (not a typo)
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-lumber-industry-misread-covid-ended-global-shortage-sky-high-n1272542

But housing in general is a more complicated issue--there's institutional and foreign investors buying up large swaths of single family homes. I believe by 2030 a handful of major banks will own the majority of homes in America.

https://moneymorning.com/2023/08/01/heres-why-blackrock-or-state-street-or-vanguard-will-be-your-kids-landlord/
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1522 » by dckingsfan » Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:52 pm

AFM wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
AFM wrote:Now show the average cost of housing vs wages.

https://www.npr.org/2024/06/20/nx-s1-5005972/home-prices-wages-paychecks-rent-housing-harvard-report

They’ve increased 50% since Covid started. There’s an entire generation of kids who will never own a home in this country. Is it Biden’s fault? Will Trump fix it. Of course not. But the incumbent party tends to get voted out when things like this happen.

With a great deal of respect.

What are the drivers of the increased costs of housing? When did this trend begin?

But I agree with your main point, voters are largely ignorant on this issue and they tend to vote against their own interests.

During covid specifically the cost of lumber increased about 400% (not a typo)
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-lumber-industry-misread-covid-ended-global-shortage-sky-high-n1272542

But housing in general is a more complicated issue--there's institutional and foreign investors buying up large swaths of single family homes. I believe by 2030 a handful of major banks will own the majority of homes in America.

https://moneymorning.com/2023/08/01/heres-why-blackrock-or-state-street-or-vanguard-will-be-your-kids-landlord/

Close. The #1 reason is the lack of housing starts that were caused by Bush's great recession (bothers me a bit that the Ds are blamed on this one).

Image

The #2 reason is the NIMBYs in cities and localities. Along with local (and sometimes state) governments, they block new housing starts. California is the posterchild. Sadly, this one is fully on the Ds (although there are examples of R controlled cities doing the same).

Once #1 & #2 came into effect that allowed institutional buying to work to their advantage (supply & demand). As you can see by the figure above, the housing starts due to the cost of materials didn't have much of an affect.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1523 » by AFM » Thu Nov 14, 2024 7:58 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
AFM wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:With a great deal of respect.

What are the drivers of the increased costs of housing? When did this trend begin?

But I agree with your main point, voters are largely ignorant on this issue and they tend to vote against their own interests.

During covid specifically the cost of lumber increased about 400% (not a typo)
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-lumber-industry-misread-covid-ended-global-shortage-sky-high-n1272542

But housing in general is a more complicated issue--there's institutional and foreign investors buying up large swaths of single family homes. I believe by 2030 a handful of major banks will own the majority of homes in America.

https://moneymorning.com/2023/08/01/heres-why-blackrock-or-state-street-or-vanguard-will-be-your-kids-landlord/

Close. The #1 reason is the lack of housing starts that were caused by Bush's great recession (bothers me a bit that the Ds are blamed on this one).

Image

The #2 reason is the NIMBYs in cities and localities. Along with local (and sometimes state) governments, they block new housing starts. California is the posterchild. Sadly, this one is fully on the Ds (although there are examples of R controlled cities doing the same).

Once #1 & #2 came into effect that allowed institutional buying to work to their advantage (supply & demand). As you can see by the figure above, the housing starts due to the cost of materials didn't have much of an affect.


I understand the general trend, I'm a real estate developer after all :) There is a widespread general shortage. But in the past 5 years or so housing costs have skyrocketed. I mean, you can literally see on the graph exactly when the pandemic started:

Image


That combined with higher interest rates, and the average american family can no longer afford a starter home.

The typical salary needed to become a homeowner in the US is now $106,500, an 80% increase from the $59,000 required in 2020.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1524 » by Pointgod » Fri Nov 15, 2024 12:52 am

Read on Twitter
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1525 » by AFM » Fri Nov 15, 2024 1:03 am

I don't know if you guys believe in physiognomy but there's something demonic about his face
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1526 » by montestewart » Fri Nov 15, 2024 1:34 am

AFM wrote:I don't know if you guys believe in physiognomy but there's something demonic about his face

Like a demon crossed with Dick Clark
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1527 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 1:06 pm

I think Harris did everything she could, turnout was pretty good, a little down from Biden because there were some defections to Trump, but basically Trump committed to full evil, hammering on hate and fear as much as possible and it worked because we're an evil country. I don't blame Harris for not being as evil as Trump. It's true the Dem mods are still in charge, stupidly thinking they can appeal to moderate Republicans. Come on. I think saying "I'm not going to change much from Biden because I agree with him on a lot, but one thing we need to start doing differently is recognize that Netanyahu is Jewish Trump" would have helped *a little,* but looks like Trump would have won anyway. It's what the country wants - entertainment. He's entertaining, he's an incredibly talented supervillain portrayer and it's fun to root for the bad guy.

I was talking to my son about how I just can't bring myself to choose the evil options in Fallout 4 and he was like, what? No big deal, it's in the game. Evil is entertaining.

We are in a big time wrestling country now and the heels are in charge and the only way to win is to get in the ring and fight as faces. Wrap yourself in the flag and loudly proclaim that you are fighting in the name of decency and apple pie and be as dramatic and entertaining as possible. No more earnest, nerdy debating about how rounding 25 million people up for deportation is evil, actually - duh! Boring! Trump supporters know it's evil, but it's so damn entertaining. Time to give these bored, entertainment starved marks something exciting to root for on the side of all that is good and wholesome.

How, I don't know. Time for all these high paid consultants to earn their fees for once. Have Lorne Michaels take over MSNBC maybe, turn it into all SNL, all the time.

I don't think it's the economy. There are countries where the average income per capita is $1000 and we're whining about how our $60k salary didn't rise enough with inflation? Get real. We're super wealthy and bored and getting angry is fun. Time to acknowledge that bored voters pay attention to politics only if it relieves their ennui at least a little and craft a message around that.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1528 » by DCZards » Fri Nov 15, 2024 3:38 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:I think Harris did everything she could, turnout was pretty good, a little down from Biden because there were some defections to Trump, but basically Trump committed to full evil, hammering on hate and fear as much as possible and it worked because we're an evil country. I don't blame Harris for not being as evil as Trump. It's true the Dem mods are still in charge, stupidly thinking they can appeal to moderate Republicans. Come on. I think saying "I'm not going to change much from Biden because I agree with him on a lot, but one thing we need to start doing differently is recognize that Netanyahu is Jewish Trump" would have helped *a little,* but looks like Trump would have won anyway. It's what the country wants - entertainment. He's entertaining, he's an incredibly talented supervillain portrayer and it's fun to root for the bad guy.

We are in a big time wrestling country now and the heels are in charge and the only way to win is to get in the ring and fight as faces. Wrap yourself in the flag and loudly proclaim that you are fighting in the name of decency and apple pie and be as dramatic and entertaining as possible. No more earnest, nerdy debating about how rounding 25 million people up for deportation is evil, actually - duh! Boring! Trump supporters know it's evil, but it's so damn entertaining. Time to give these bored, entertainment starved marks something exciting to root for on the side of all that is good and wholesome.

I don't think it's the economy. There are countries where the average income per capita is $1000 and we're whining about how our $60k salary didn't rise enough with inflation? Get real. We're super wealthy and bored and getting angry is fun. Time to acknowledge that bored voters pay attention to politics only if it relieves their ennui at least a little and craft a message around that.

I read an article a couple of days ago criticizing Harris for abandoning her message of “joy” and attacking Trump’s character during the last few weeks of the campaign. They thought the joy message would have won. Well, they’re wrong.

As you say, at its core America is an evil country. It was built on the slaughter of Native Americans and the enslavement of Africans. That’s about as evil as it gets. (I'm not suggesting that all Americans are evil.)

Trump’s pure, dark machismo evil is a partticulary tough matchup for a photogenic, smiling brown-skin woman. Sadly, too many of us root for and choose the sinister Joker over the do-good Batman.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1529 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 3:50 pm

DCZards wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:I think Harris did everything she could, turnout was pretty good, a little down from Biden because there were some defections to Trump, but basically Trump committed to full evil, hammering on hate and fear as much as possible and it worked because we're an evil country. I don't blame Harris for not being as evil as Trump. It's true the Dem mods are still in charge, stupidly thinking they can appeal to moderate Republicans. Come on. I think saying "I'm not going to change much from Biden because I agree with him on a lot, but one thing we need to start doing differently is recognize that Netanyahu is Jewish Trump" would have helped *a little,* but looks like Trump would have won anyway. It's what the country wants - entertainment. He's entertaining, he's an incredibly talented supervillain portrayer and it's fun to root for the bad guy.

We are in a big time wrestling country now and the heels are in charge and the only way to win is to get in the ring and fight as faces. Wrap yourself in the flag and loudly proclaim that you are fighting in the name of decency and apple pie and be as dramatic and entertaining as possible. No more earnest, nerdy debating about how rounding 25 million people up for deportation is evil, actually - duh! Boring! Trump supporters know it's evil, but it's so damn entertaining. Time to give these bored, entertainment starved marks something exciting to root for on the side of all that is good and wholesome.

I don't think it's the economy. There are countries where the average income per capita is $1000 and we're whining about how our $60k salary didn't rise enough with inflation? Get real. We're super wealthy and bored and getting angry is fun. Time to acknowledge that bored voters pay attention to politics only if it relieves their ennui at least a little and craft a message around that.

I read an article a couple of days ago criticizing Harris for abandoning her message of “joy” and attacking Trump’s character during the last few weeks of the campaign. They thought the joy message would have won. Well, they’re wrong.

As you say, at its core America is an evil country. It was built on the slaughter of Native Americans and the enslavement of Africans. That’s about as evil as it gets. (I'm not suggesting that all Americans are evil.)

Trump’s pure, dark machismo evil is a partticulary tough matchup for a photogenic, smiling brown-skin woman. Sadly, too many of us root for and choose the sinister Joker over the do-good Batman.


Especially if the Batman is in his Bruce Wayne outfit with the glasses trying to patiently explain to the Joker's followers that he's evil. Look, if you're a Joker minion, you're evil, that's the deal. The Joker's evil is the draw, the whole point. You don't persuade the Joker's minions that the Joker is evil, you put on your cape and pull out your bat dusters and you punch the Joker in the jaw.

You remember how it went in the eighties, the bad guys would beat up on Hulk Hogan and he'd be down and almost out and almost get pinned and then his fans would start cheering for him to get up and he'd put his hand to his ear to make them cheer louder and then the bad guy would hit him and his eyes would get big and he'd just shrug it off because THE POWER OF GOOD WAS MAKING HIM INVINCIBLE and then he would summon the strength OUT OF SEEMINGLY NOWHERE to BEAT THE BAD GUY SENSELESS.

Hulk never complained. His fans would complain when the bad guys cheat and he would point to the refs questioningly (why is this guy allowed to grab a chair???) but eventually he would overcome the obstacles because Good Is Just Better Than Evil tm. And that's the lesson for democracy, which is on the ropes. Everyone in this country loves democracy but for some reason the Joker fans want us to performatively get up and fight for it. Ok so let's fight, but you know - big time wrestling fighting. Not like, real life fighting. And the rules are, never break kayfabe. Never complain that the rules are unfair, never complain that this is all pointless, all the bad guys need to do is choose not to be evil, why are we even fighting. No. Because fighting is entertaining and that's what the Joker fans want and if you're not going to play along they're going to vote for the guy who is. So we're doing this to entertain bored privileged white guys and a few hangers on trying to pretend they're also privileged enough to pretend none of this affects them. That's where we are. It's stupid and evil but we're majority stupid and evil so here we go I guess.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1530 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 4:03 pm

The Onion's statement on their purchase of Infowars:

https://global-tetrahedron.com/

"Here's why we decided to buy Infowars:

Today we celebrate a new addition to the Global Tetrahedron LLC family of brands. And let me say, I really do see it as a family. Much like family members, our brands are abstract nodes of wealth, interchangeable assets for their patriarch to absorb and discard according to the opaque whims of the market. And just like family members, our brands regard one another with mutual suspicion and malice.

All told, the decision to acquire InfoWars was an easy one for the Global Tetrahedron executive board.

Founded in 1999 on the heels of the Satanic “panic” and growing steadily ever since, InfoWars has distinguished itself as an invaluable tool for brainwashing and controlling the masses. With a shrewd mix of delusional paranoia and dubious anti-aging nutrition hacks, they strive to make life both scarier and longer for everyone, a commendable goal. They are a true unicorn, capable of simultaneously inspiring public support for billionaires and stoking outrage at an inept federal state that can assassinate JFK but can’t even put a man on the Moon.

Through it all, InfoWars has shown an unswerving commitment to manufacturing anger and radicalizing the most vulnerable members of society—values that resonate deeply with all of us at Global Tetrahedron.

No price would be too high for such a cornucopia of malleable assets and minds. And yet, in a stroke of good fortune, a formidable special interest group has outwitted the hapless owner of InfoWars (a forgettable man with an already-forgotten name) and forced him to sell it at a steep bargain: less than one trillion dollars.

Make no mistake: This is a coup for our company and a well-deserved victory for multinational elites the world over.

What’s next for InfoWars remains a live issue. The excess funds initially allocated for the purchase will be reinvested into our philanthropic efforts that include business school scholarships for promising cult leaders, a charity that donates elections to at-risk third world dictators, and a new pro bono program pairing orphans with stable factory jobs at no cost to the factories.

As for the vitamins and supplements, we are halting their sale immediately. Utilitarian logic dictates that if we can extend even one CEO's life by 10 minutes, diluting these miracle elixirs for public consumption is an unethical waste. Instead, we plan to collect the entire stock of the InfoWars warehouses into a large vat and boil the contents down into a single candy bar–sized omnivitamin that one executive (I will not name names) may eat in order to increase his power and perhaps become immortal.

All will be revealed in due time. For now, let’s enjoy this win and toast to the continued consolidation of power and capital.

Infinite Growth Forever."
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1531 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 4:56 pm

Every hundred pages or so I have to repeat this: I will never, ever lie to you in this thread. If I see something as stupid or evil, I will call it stupid and evil. If that hurts your feelings, tough, and I actually don't care. Don't be stupid and evil. That's your problem.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1532 » by dckingsfan » Fri Nov 15, 2024 5:17 pm

AFM wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
AFM wrote:During covid specifically the cost of lumber increased about 400% (not a typo)
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-lumber-industry-misread-covid-ended-global-shortage-sky-high-n1272542

But housing in general is a more complicated issue--there's institutional and foreign investors buying up large swaths of single family homes. I believe by 2030 a handful of major banks will own the majority of homes in America.

https://moneymorning.com/2023/08/01/heres-why-blackrock-or-state-street-or-vanguard-will-be-your-kids-landlord/

Close. The #1 reason is the lack of housing starts that were caused by Bush's great recession (bothers me a bit that the Ds are blamed on this one).

Image

The #2 reason is the NIMBYs in cities and localities. Along with local (and sometimes state) governments, they block new housing starts. California is the posterchild. Sadly, this one is fully on the Ds (although there are examples of R controlled cities doing the same).

Once #1 & #2 came into effect that allowed institutional buying to work to their advantage (supply & demand). As you can see by the figure above, the housing starts due to the cost of materials didn't have much of an affect.


I understand the general trend, I'm a real estate developer after all :) There is a widespread general shortage. But in the past 5 years or so housing costs have skyrocketed. I mean, you can literally see on the graph exactly when the pandemic started:

Image


That combined with higher interest rates, and the average american family can no longer afford a starter home.

The typical salary needed to become a homeowner in the US is now $106,500, an 80% increase from the $59,000 required in 2020.

You are describing symptoms of the root cause (which is fine).

The root cause is that housing starts plummeted. Over time that created a shortage and supply & demand kicked in. Then elasticity kicked in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(economics)

The shortage in housing caused by the lack of housing starts "enabled" corporate buyers to skew pricing and the Fed's increase in rates to skew prices further.

Housing would be quite affordable still if we were building enough housing - but we aren't.

Fun Fact: California (state) is trying to do something about this and the pushback from local communities is epic. The local response is; yes, we should build, just not here.

One more thing - your figure should be in terms of inflation adjusted dollars (I would think). Although it doesn't matter, the only way out of this hole is to build a whole lot more housing. Trump doesn't want that (it impacts his holdings) and Harris was misaligned on that as well. We need to squash the stupid local permitting processes that slow development. One standard set of codes - if you comply you can build (and not be held hostage by local entities).
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1533 » by AFM » Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:00 pm

I don't think we're really disagreeing. I said in my above post that there's a longterm shortage in housing. But I'm talking about the past 4 years under Biden, why do so many people say that the economy is terrible right now--lack of supply isn't a new issue.

As to your last point, yeah I understand. I'm a developer in DC. Everyone says they want more housing, but everyone hates construction on their block. It's "gentrification" to take a complete tear down that hasn't been maintained in 70 years and turn it into two beautiful condos for families to move into. But I digress...
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1534 » by dobrojim » Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:45 pm

Am I being fair to say rich (or better off) people don't want new 'affordable
housing' near their property ie where they live? (I won't argue that there isn't
an underlying racial motivation for this, in many cases)

They associate affordability with greater diversity.

I believe it's largely true that real estate values of a given property are hugely
related to the value of nearby existing property. This would tend to create a natural
antipathy to development of cheaper properties close to properties you own.

Since I plan to continue to live where I am, property appreciation simply is a justification for
higher real estate taxes. It may boost my ego to learn that my property is suddenly
worth more (not that I did anything to cause that), but it's just going to increase my
taxes. Until I sell. By then, the next property I move to would likely have appreciated as well.
FWIW, I've lived in the same place since 1986. Both the value of
my property and my property taxes have increased many fold over that time.

None of this should be considered me complaining. And maybe it's all obvious to this generally
well educated audience.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1535 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:48 pm

You should also take into account that Trump's tax giveaway to the rich also increased the standard deduction to $20k, thereby effectively eliminating the mortgage subsidy, causing a huge run by investors to scoop up residential housing and convert it to rentals. Temporary thing but it had an effect on availability of rehab contractors and lumber.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1536 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:50 pm

dobrojim wrote:Am I being fair to say rich (or better off) people don't want new 'affordable
housing' near their property ie where they live? (I won't argue that there isn't
an underlying racial motivation for this, in many cases)

They associate affordability with greater diversity.

I believe it's largely true that real estate values of a given property are hugely
related to the value of nearby existing property. This would tend to create a natural
antipathy to development of cheaper properties close to properties you own.

Since I plan to continue to live where I am, property appreciation simply is a justification for
higher real estate taxes. It may boost my ego to learn that my property is suddenly
worth more (not that I did anything to cause that), but it's just going to increase my
taxes. Until I sell. By then, the next property I move to would likely have appreciated as well.
FWIW, I've lived in the same place since 1986. Both the value of
my property and my property taxes have increased many fold over that time.

None of this should be considered me complaining. And maybe it's all obvious to this generally
well educated audience.


Yeah this is a general incumbent vs entrant problem that is everywhere and eternal, Dems are "to blame" because it happens mostly in cities where Dems happen to be in charge. But it's everybody's fault.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1537 » by badinage » Fri Nov 15, 2024 9:55 pm

The more Dems don’t do the hard work of examining how they went wrong, the longer the pain is going to last.

To think that this is an evil country, inherently, is not all wrong, but if it exists in the Dems’ thinking, they WILL lose.

Trump is the opposition, clearly. And a bizarre and frightening one in many ways.

But the enemy? The enemy is easy explanations that don’t require deep searching, that exculpate, that lead to safe, comfortable “certainties.”
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1538 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 15, 2024 10:06 pm

The enemy is the person that calls you the enemy and threatens to kill you. Don't blame the victim here. That's abuser talk. The clear solution to this problem is for Americans to stop choosing to be evil. Dems don't have any control over that. If this country has a bunch of evil lemmings that want to jump over a cliff into authoritarianism, that is 100% their fault, not the Dems. It's not the victim's responsibility to convince the abuser to stop punching her. Beating your wife is a choice you are 100% responsible for.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1539 » by tontoz » Fri Nov 15, 2024 10:13 pm

I didn't vote for trump for obvious reasons but the lack of self awareness I see here among Dems is staggering.

Why didn't Biden invite Tesla to his EV summit in 2021? Was this done based on merit or because Biden was in the pocket of the unions?

Why is the Biden administration spending billions on problems that have already been solved by Musk (charging stations and rural Internet)?

If the country is so racist how did Obama get elected not once, but twice?

The "evil" people in this country aren't the reason Harris dogded interviews, and dodged questions in the rare interviews she did. We know she is from a middle class background. We heard her the first dozen times but that wasn't the question.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXIII 

Post#1540 » by Bonscott » Fri Nov 15, 2024 10:22 pm

Democrats want black power,if someone else thinks they just want the best person for the job then democrats label them racist
You democrats need to wake up as to why Trump is moving back in to the White House
Harris was installed by the democrats after one of the worst 4 years in modern history,democrats waited far too long to figure out that Trump would beat Biden so there were no primaries,they just forced her one the people
I'm not a Trump lover I didn't even vote for him in the primaries(oh right democrats don't know what primaries are)
It was an easy choice who to vote for,this country doesn't need 4 more years of this

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