Anthony Black - Arkansas

[Chi town]

Giddey is a career 316 3pt shooter, and Black is a career 363 shooter.

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Giddey has shot 26, 31, 32 and small sample of 42 this season. Always on 3-4 attempts per game.

AB has shot 39 on 1.4 per game last year and 26 on 2.3 this season.

Volume tells a fuller story.

Giddey has averaged 1.3 more 3-pt shots per 100 possessions. That's close to the same. Blacks will likely increase with age

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That’s not the point. Volume is. Giddey has hundreds more possessions and attempts.

How do we know AB is not an above league average 3pt shooter as a rookie compared to this year???

Volume will tell us.

[basketballRob]

Giddey has shot 26, 31, 32 and small sample of 42 this season. Always on 3-4 attempts per game.

AB has shot 39 on 1.4 per game last year and 26 on 2.3 this season.

Volume tells a fuller story.

Giddey has averaged 1.3 more 3-pt shots per 100 possessions. That's close to the same. Blacks will likely increase with age

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That’s not the point. Volume is. Giddey has hundreds more possessions and attempts.

How do we know AB is not an above league average 3pt shooter as a rookie compared to this year???

Volume will tell us.

Okay. As of now, AB shoots 50 points higher for his career. So, as far as we know based on the volume by your definition, AB could be the better 3-pt shooter?

So AB could be like Giddey but with better defense and better 3-point shooting.

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[Chi town]

Giddey has averaged 1.3 more 3-pt shots per 100 possessions. That's close to the same. Blacks will likely increase with age

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That’s not the point. Volume is. Giddey has hundreds more possessions and attempts.

How do we know AB is not an above league average 3pt shooter as a rookie compared to this year???

Volume will tell us.

Okay. As of now, AB shoots 50 points higher for his career. So, as far as we know based on the volume by your definition, AB could be the better 3-pt shooter?

So AB could be like Giddey but with better defense and better 3-point shooting.

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It’s pretty straight forward. Volume.

The nuance is maybe Giddey has improved and his 40+ 3 ball is real and teams begin to guard him there and he establishes more gravity as an offensive player but the light contesting tanks his attempts or his percentage.

3pt percentage means very little if you don’t take many or only wide open attempts. Same as FTs. Great you make 90% but you only shoot one per game.

I like AB I think he needs a pace offense with lots of shooters. That will never happen in ORL with Franz and Paulo taking up all the usage.

[Braggins]

His fit with Paolo/Franz is fine. The general lack of outside shooting doesn't help him and neither does the pace, but I think those things can easily be fixed by tweaking the players around the core of Paolo/Franz/Suggs/Black.

They need better shooters regardless and if they get them that should naturally help increase the pace, especially as Blacks role continues to increase (he naturally pushes the pace).

I don't think minor fit issues that exist right now are a problem for his long term development.

[basketballRob]

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[basketballRob]

His fit with Paolo/Franz is fine. The general lack of outside shooting doesn't help him and neither does the pace, but I think those things can easily be fixed by tweaking the players around the core of Paolo/Franz/Suggs/Black.

They need better shooters regardless and if they get them that should naturally help increase the pace, especially as Blacks role continues to increase (he naturally pushes the pace).

I don't think minor fit issues that exist right now are a problem for his long term development.

Currently, Giddey is a lot better than Black offensively, and Black is a lot better defensively. Black actually guards the PG, and Giddey is more of a forward on defense. I like to give players around 3 years to see what they'll be.

BTW. I know you were touting Giddey's 3-pt%, but that looks like it's dropping fast.

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[Braggins]

Spoiler:

His fit with Paolo/Franz is fine. The general lack of outside shooting doesn't help him and neither does the pace, but I think those things can easily be fixed by tweaking the players around the core of Paolo/Franz/Suggs/Black.

They need better shooters regardless and if they get them that should naturally help increase the pace, especially as Blacks role continues to increase (he naturally pushes the pace).

I don't think minor fit issues that exist right now are a problem for his long term development.

Currently, Giddey is a lot better than Black offensively, and Black is a lot better defensively. Black actually guards the PG, and Giddey is more of a forward on defense. I like to give players around 3 years to see what they'll be.

BTW. I know you were touting Giddey's 3-pt%, but that looks like it's dropping fast.

You might have me confused with someone else. I never said anything about Giddey.

[basketballRob]

Spoiler:

His fit with Paolo/Franz is fine. The general lack of outside shooting doesn't help him and neither does the pace, but I think those things can easily be fixed by tweaking the players around the core of Paolo/Franz/Suggs/Black.

They need better shooters regardless and if they get them that should naturally help increase the pace, especially as Blacks role continues to increase (he naturally pushes the pace).

I don't think minor fit issues that exist right now are a problem for his long term development.

Currently, Giddey is a lot better than Black offensively, and Black is a lot better defensively. Black actually guards the PG, and Giddey is more of a forward on defense. I like to give players around 3 years to see what they'll be.

BTW. I know you were touting Giddey's 3-pt%, but that looks like it's dropping fast.

You might have me confused with someone else. I never said anything about Giddey.

Yeah, sorry I did mix you up with the Bulls fan talking about Giddey.

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[HadAnEffectHere]

He's great at most everything if he becomes a really good shooter.

... It hasn't been happening yet...

Basically everything else is as encouraging as possible, but shooting is the main NBA skill. Especially for guys who are only like 7/10 athletes.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Paulo being out has been a blessing for Black as it's giving him more run and he's gaining more confidence. ORL needs to either start him once Paulo returns or trade a couple of their bench guys and give all those minutes to Black making him their version of Derrick White and settle on a 7 man rotation to prepare them for the playoffs.

[clyde21]

Paulo being out has been a blessing for Black as it's giving him more run and he's gaining more confidence. ORL needs to either start him once Paulo returns or trade a couple of their bench guys and give all those minutes to Black making him their version of Derrick White and settle on a 7 man rotation to prepare them for the playoffs.

Paolo is an awkward fit next to anyone not named Paolo because of his high usage, kinda slow pace and being locked into the 4.

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[basketballRob]

Paulo being out has been a blessing for Black as it's giving him more run and he's gaining more confidence. ORL needs to either start him once Paulo returns or trade a couple of their bench guys and give all those minutes to Black making him their version of Derrick White and settle on a 7 man rotation to prepare them for the playoffs.

I'm glad to see you change your stance on AB.

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[FarBeyondDriven]

Paulo being out has been a blessing for Black as it's giving him more run and he's gaining more confidence. ORL needs to either start him once Paulo returns or trade a couple of their bench guys and give all those minutes to Black making him their version of Derrick White and settle on a 7 man rotation to prepare them for the playoffs.

I'm glad to see you change your stance on AB.

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not sure what you mean. Nothing has changed. He's worth developing and deserving of minutes over guys like Anthony and Howard so of course I think he should get their minutes for his sake and the team's. Just because I don't think he's special or better than a bunch of other guys doesn't mean I think he's a bum or not starter material.

[DaddyCool19]

So whats his ceiling if he has a respectable jumper? (Let's say 34-35% from 3 on 3-4 attempts)

[JMAC3]

I still think he is a pretty awful fit on the Magic, who rank dead last in the NBA in 3pt % at 30.9

Paolo and Franz are at best 35% three point shooters right now, who are more on the ball guys. Black is shooting 30% from three and is at his best probably with the ball, which is the opposite of the right fit. Suggs if his shot returns (31%% from deep rn) is ideally a guy that doesn't need the ball and can space the floor which was the theory with KCP as well. However, with Paolo out the need for another ball handler has allowed Black to show a bit more, but that is short term and Paolo and Franz aren't going anywhere.

Magic are at least trying to play some shooting at the 5 with Wagner, Carter and Issac but it is not enough. Magic ranked 30th in 3s per game last year too.

Idk the answer for the Magic but this is why it is difficult to build an offense in the NBA with guards who don't shoot well. Especially if they aren't top tier offensive players.

[JMAC3]

I still think he is a pretty awful fit on the Magic, who rank dead last in the NBA in 3pt % at 30.9

Paolo and Franz are at best 35% three point shooters right now, who are more on the ball guys. Black is shooting 30% from three and is at his best probably with the ball, which is the opposite of the right fit. Suggs if his shot returns (31%% from deep rn) is ideally a guy that doesn't need the ball and can space the floor which was the theory with KCP as well. However, with Paolo out the need for another ball handler has allowed Black to show a bit more, but that is short term and Paolo and Franz aren't going anywhere.

Magic are at least trying to play some shooting at the 5 with Wagner, Carter and Issac but it is not enough. Magic ranked 30th in 3s per game last year too.

Idk the answer for the Magic but this is why it is difficult to build an offense in the NBA with guards who don't shoot well. Especially if they aren't top tier offensive players.

What is the Magics ideal lineup with Black in it?

Black- Suggs- Franz- Paolo- Carter?

4 below average shooters and Suggs who is far from a sure thing right now.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I still think he is a pretty awful fit on the Magic, who rank dead last in the NBA in 3pt % at 30.9

Paolo and Franz are at best 35% three point shooters right now, who are more on the ball guys. Black is shooting 30% from three and is at his best probably with the ball, which is the opposite of the right fit. Suggs if his shot returns (31%% from deep rn) is ideally a guy that doesn't need the ball and can space the floor which was the theory with KCP as well. However, with Paolo out the need for another ball handler has allowed Black to show a bit more, but that is short term and Paolo and Franz aren't going anywhere.

Magic are at least trying to play some shooting at the 5 with Wagner, Carter and Issac but it is not enough. Magic ranked 30th in 3s per game last year too.

Idk the answer for the Magic but this is why it is difficult to build an offense in the NBA with guards who don't shoot well. Especially if they aren't top tier offensive players.

What is the Magics ideal lineup with Black in it?

Black- Suggs- Franz- Paolo- Carter?

4 below average shooters and Suggs who is far from a sure thing right now.

I was never a huge Suggs fan. I have him as the same level of prospect as Black tbh. Those two are essentially the same player give or take so one of them should be moved. Maybe if they moved Suggs they could actually play Howard who is supposedly a great potential shooter and play him at the 2 next to Black. I think the problem with teams like the Magic is that they behave as if they're closer than they are and instead of giving the kids minutes they go out and acquire a veteran that is not good enough to put them over the top while at the same time steals minutes from the developing kids. That's what they did with the KCP acquisition imho. They could have just let Howard get those minutes which would have a) helped him develop b) been aligned with youth movement which fans can get behind c) save money (they paid KCP like $22 million per!) I felt the same way when the Celtics pivoted away from their youth movement and acquired Hayward and Kyrie. And we saw how that worked out. Internal division and they never met expectations.

[basketballRob]

Paulo being out has been a blessing for Black as it's giving him more run and he's gaining more confidence. ORL needs to either start him once Paulo returns or trade a couple of their bench guys and give all those minutes to Black making him their version of Derrick White and settle on a 7 man rotation to prepare them for the playoffs.

I'm glad to see you change your stance on AB.

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not sure what you mean. Nothing has changed. He's worth developing and deserving of minutes over guys like Anthony and Howard so of course I think he should get their minutes for his sake and the team's. Just because I don't think he's special or better than a bunch of other guys doesn't mean I think he's a bum or not starter material.

So you still think 9 players from this last draft will be better PGs than Black?

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[FarBeyondDriven]

I'm glad to see you change your stance on AB.

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not sure what you mean. Nothing has changed. He's worth developing and deserving of minutes over guys like Anthony and Howard so of course I think he should get their minutes for his sake and the team's. Just because I don't think he's special or better than a bunch of other guys doesn't mean I think he's a bum or not starter material.

So you still think 9 players from this last draft will be better PGs than Black?

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more tbh

Black
Rookie - 5/2/1 and shot 39% from three
2nd - 8/3/5 and shooting 30% from three

2024 Draft Point Guards I like as prospects more than Black

McCain - 17/2/3 and shooting 43% from three
Castle - 11/3/4 and shooting 28% from three
Carrington - 10/4/5 and shooting 38% from three
George - 8/4/3 and shooting 27% from three
Mitchell - 5/2/2 and shooting 47% from three
Collier - 4/2/3 and shooting 10% from three


Dillingham - N/A essentially hasn't played
Johnson - N/A essentially hasn't played
Topic - N/A injured
Carter - N/A injured

I'm not changing anything after 17 games. Are you at least ready to admit you might have been wrong about the point guards from this class and also that you just might be a little too high on AB?

[basketballRob]

not sure what you mean. Nothing has changed. He's worth developing and deserving of minutes over guys like Anthony and Howard so of course I think he should get their minutes for his sake and the team's. Just because I don't think he's special or better than a bunch of other guys doesn't mean I think he's a bum or not starter material.

So you still think 9 players from this last draft will be better PGs than Black?

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more tbh

Black
Rookie - 5/2/1 and shot 39% from three
2nd - 8/3/5 and shooting 30% from three

2024 Draft Point Guards I like as prospects more than Black

McCain - 17/2/3 and shooting 43% from three
Castle - 11/3/4 and shooting 28% from three
Carrington - 10/4/5 and shooting 38% from three
George - 8/4/3 and shooting 27% from three
Mitchell - 5/2/2 and shooting 47% from three
Collier - 4/2/3 and shooting 10% from three


Dillingham - N/A essentially hasn't played
Johnson - N/A essentially hasn't played
Topic - N/A injured
Carter - N/A injured

I'm not changing anything after 17 games. Are you at least ready to admit you might have been wrong about the point guards from this class and also that you just might be a little too high on AB?

AB started several games last season when he was 19 on a 47 win team. This season, he's getting heavy rotation minutes on a winning team. He's already one of the top guard defenders in the league, and it's going to only get better. His shooting will get better, too. He shoots 50% from 2 and 36% from 3 so far in his career, and those numbers will go up.

You're posting raw stats from players on bad teams.

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