Pulse check: Tank

[Mr Funk]

But if they were actually pulling out games I think you would resent them for never giving up and resent their camaraderie. It's only because they're losing that most of you are happy. Poeltl plays well and tankers want him traded for maximum value, etc. They don't care that Poeltl is a part of this team, just that he represents a pathway to more value. The only value this team has to tankers is to provide them with a player they can apply even more hope to.

Think and make overly negative assumptions all you want, but you couldn't be further from the truth. I'm happy to see Grady and Ochai blossoming into rotational and starter level players, especially after all of the overly negative and casual takes on here regarding them being busts from last season. I'm fine if we retain Poeltl, as I would at least want a centre in line to take over in his absence, in addition to a first round pick, considering his high level of play lately. This is a historic draft loaded with at least five players who potentially could be generational talents. It's a golden opportunity for us to fast track this team's trajectory and become competitive much sooner than expected, as adding a potential generational talent is very exciting to an already young and competitive team. I want to win and win championships and not be relegated to a mediocre treadmill.

My negative assumption is that if these players won all their coinflip games this year and we were closer to 6-8 or 7-7 without Scottie and IQ, that fans that are supportive of the tank would resent that we were competitive and trying hard. I think a lot of the language tankers use indicates I'm right.

Nah, the only thing which is indicated here is that you're overly presumptious, kind of full of yourself and someone I have no interest in interacting with.

[will]

tWo.
Baybee.

[Thaddy]

The best case scenario is us rebuilding this year and the following year. Then signing some vets to try and compete. We should be looking to sell Barrett, Poeltl, Brown, Boucher, and Mitchell for picks extending past 2026. I would aim for picks around 2027 to 2029. Once we're ready to compete we can use those picks to gather win now pieces similar to how we did with Gasol (using JV, Ed Davis (?), etc)

[ATLTimekeeper]

Let's not forget that the team is in this narrow path (heavily reliant on hitting big on this year's lotto pick to add to their existing franchise player and cadre of role players) because the faction that's adamant on becoming mediocre as quickly as possible got exactly what it wanted. Hope you all enjoyed that Bulls play-in loss.

Not trading Fred/trading for Jak in a shambles locker room trade deadline has cost us:
- a close 10% chance at Wemby or a high lotto pick
- the 2024 lotto pick (or those juicy future Wolves picks)
- a future Bucks 1st.
- if we don't trade Jak, could easily push us out of favourable draft position yet again.

This timeline is what you end up with when you make catastrophic, shortsighted decisions.

This is what team mediocre bought, and it's left the team with no shortcuts for long term improvements. Let's hope the FO has the patience this time around to not triple down on repeating the same mistakes.

Seems like the only negative is the 10% chance at Wemby. I don't know if you can consider that a catastrophic decision, as the odds are so slim that they are not in your favour even if you do exactly what you wanted. The high lotto pick seems unimportant now that Gradey Dick is looking like a top 5 pick from this very draft. Oh, you're welcome for Gradey, btw. That's what we got by losing the play-in

[AbC?]

Whether you think this team is good enough to make the play-in or is genuinely just a bad basketball team, the answer is still to tank. Call it artificially suppressing the team's win total if that feels better to you.

Our single most valuable asset is our 2024 draft pick, by a good margin over Barnes. It is the only realistic means of raising this team's ceiling. Will it pan out for sure? No, but it's the best way forward given the dearth of talent on this team (thanks to Masai's indecision and inactivity the last 5 years). Protecting that asset by keeping our win total low is the most important thing to do right now.

Whatever theoretical benefits you'd get by winning more games - better environment for development, trade value of players, chemistry etc etc, if they are even real, pale in comparison to protecting the value of our draft pick.

I still have no trust in Masai to see through this rebuild with patience but I'm hoping injuries, Darko, some good luck and the general lack of talent on this roster forces him into some sensible decisions.

[Tacoma]

We never get Wemby from where we were at record wise at the trade deadline (already 26 wins). Impossible.

We have Yak right now instead of a Edey. Id rather have the young guy, but the overall value isn't substantially different. We are NOT winning right now even with Yak, hasn't impacted the tank. We are getting alot of close developmental/entertaining losses because we have a competent center (basically what many were saying on here all summer).

The Bucks pick does have an impact, but we only have so many roster spots. After next year, where are we fitting these guys in, assuming we have a high lotto pick this year, and multiple first next? Do we sit Ochai and Dick and Mogbo and Ja'Kobe?

I'm sorry Billy, but you don't have the time stone. The decision to tank at the deadline when we were in the 5th spot and tried to stay there gets you those odds. We don't know what the outcome would have been.

The feeling about the tank is great, but will only remain that way if we can ensure it. Moving veterans alone likely solves that for us. We could be feeling a little less dependent on it if we hadn't mortgaged the future over the last 2 years. But we're basically at the Siakam/Fred/Norm (all of our current comps being slightly better) stage and have an extra 2026 pick as the only added asset to it. Slim amount of assets for a team that lost or traded away it's entire starting lineup over the last 2 years.

Actually, you don't need the time stone. We actually do know that the lottery ended up awarding the 2nd place odds (I.e. the team that ended with the second worst record obtained the lottery combination that eventually beget Wemby). Unless you think the lottery balls knew that the Spurs owned that combination, and that was some sort of impact to the random draw? Are you suggesting that the Raptors losing more would have impacted the lottery results? These things seem to be completely independent from my perspective, but I suppose you can never know the true butterfly effect of things.

I agree based on what actually happened with the lottery, had we tanked in 2023 instead of making the Poeltl trade in the failed attempt to make the playoffs, we still would not have been bad enough to be bottom 3 needed to get Wemby. We got Gradey who's looking good, so I agree the trade did not have a detrimental impact re 2023 draft.

However, it did materially impact the 2024 draft because, as you alluded, we likely would've drafted Zach Edey. His age is in line with Barnes and whomever we select in '25 draft and I project him to become a better C than Poeltl.

So, of the 2, Poeltl is the better player today, thus he helps us win more games this year at the expense of potentially a dimmer future in the form of a lower 2025 pick. So, the trade, while not impacting '23 draft, did impact '24 and will impact '25 drafts.

[sidsid]

I'm sorry Billy, but you don't have the time stone. The decision to tank at the deadline when we were in the 5th spot and tried to stay there gets you those odds. We don't know what the outcome would have been.

The feeling about the tank is great, but will only remain that way if we can ensure it. Moving veterans alone likely solves that for us. We could be feeling a little less dependent on it if we hadn't mortgaged the future over the last 2 years. But we're basically at the Siakam/Fred/Norm (all of our current comps being slightly better) stage and have an extra 2026 pick as the only added asset to it. Slim amount of assets for a team that lost or traded away it's entire starting lineup over the last 2 years.

Actually, you don't need the time stone. We actually do know that the lottery ended up awarding the 2nd place odds (I.e. the team that ended with the second worst record obtained the lottery combination that eventually beget Wemby). Unless you think the lottery balls knew that the Spurs owned that combination, and that was some sort of impact to the random draw? Are you suggesting that the Raptors losing more would have impacted the lottery results? These things seem to be completely independent from my perspective, but I suppose you can never know the true butterfly effect of things.

I agree based on what actually happened with the lottery, had we tanked in 2023 instead of making the Poeltl trade in the failed attempt to make the playoffs, we still would not have been bad enough to be bottom 3 needed to get Wemby. We got Gradey who's looking good, so I agree the trade did not have a detrimental impact re 2023 draft.

However, it did materially impact the 2024 draft because, as you alluded, we likely would've drafted Zach Edey. His age is in line with Barnes and whomever we select in '25 draft and I project him to become a better C than Poeltl.

So, of the 2, Poeltl is the better player today, thus he helps us win more games this year at the expense of potentially a dimmer future in the form of a lower 2025 pick. So, the trade, while not impacting '23 draft, did impact '24 and will impact '25 drafts.

Thought there had been enough comic book movies out now to explain it, but we do not know the outcome of the lottery had we tanked instead of trading for Jak because we would have changed things.

Terminator: Dark Fate is a surprisingly good movie, and you can see this concept in action as judgement day keeps changing as they alter the past. Highly recommended.

[billy_hoyle]

Actually, you don't need the time stone. We actually do know that the lottery ended up awarding the 2nd place odds (I.e. the team that ended with the second worst record obtained the lottery combination that eventually beget Wemby). Unless you think the lottery balls knew that the Spurs owned that combination, and that was some sort of impact to the random draw? Are you suggesting that the Raptors losing more would have impacted the lottery results? These things seem to be completely independent from my perspective, but I suppose you can never know the true butterfly effect of things.

I agree based on what actually happened with the lottery, had we tanked in 2023 instead of making the Poeltl trade in the failed attempt to make the playoffs, we still would not have been bad enough to be bottom 3 needed to get Wemby. We got Gradey who's looking good, so I agree the trade did not have a detrimental impact re 2023 draft.

However, it did materially impact the 2024 draft because, as you alluded, we likely would've drafted Zach Edey. His age is in line with Barnes and whomever we select in '25 draft and I project him to become a better C than Poeltl.

So, of the 2, Poeltl is the better player today, thus he helps us win more games this year at the expense of potentially a dimmer future in the form of a lower 2025 pick. So, the trade, while not impacting '23 draft, did impact '24 and will impact '25 drafts.

Thought there had been enough comic book movies out now to explain it, but we do not know the outcome of the lottery had we tanked instead of trading for Jak because we would have changed things.

Terminator: Dark Fate is a surprisingly good movie, and you can see this concept in action as judgement day keeps changing as they alter the past. Highly recommended.

Fair enough. I think it's a bit sci-fi to believe that, but it's certainly possible.

I'd imagine it's a very low probability.

[___Rand___]

3rd voting option suggestion: I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

[KrazyP]

The tank is the right course of action.

The season is unfolding nicely. Record so far looks like a top 5 pick guarantee and the team on the floor is playing hard, with good chemistry and actually executing plays rather than the disjointed nonsense some tanking teams get into because of roster flaws and general inexperience.

If heatlhy, the team is probably a lot better than the record indicates but lets save the turn around for next year.

[sidsid]

Let's not forget that the team is in this narrow path (heavily reliant on hitting big on this year's lotto pick to add to their existing franchise player and cadre of role players) because the faction that's adamant on becoming mediocre as quickly as possible got exactly what it wanted. Hope you all enjoyed that Bulls play-in loss.

Not trading Fred/trading for Jak in a shambles locker room trade deadline has cost us:
- a close 10% chance at Wemby or a high lotto pick
- the 2024 lotto pick (or those juicy future Wolves picks)
- a future Bucks 1st.
- if we don't trade Jak, could easily push us out of favourable draft position yet again.

This timeline is what you end up with when you make catastrophic, shortsighted decisions.

This is what team mediocre bought, and it's left the team with no shortcuts for long term improvements. Let's hope the FO has the patience this time around to not triple down on repeating the same mistakes.

Seems like the only negative is the 10% chance at Wemby. I don't know if you can consider that a catastrophic decision, as the odds are so slim that they are not in your favour even if you do exactly what you wanted. The high lotto pick seems unimportant now that Gradey Dick is looking like a top 5 pick from this very draft. Oh, you're welcome for Gradey, btw. That's what we got by losing the play-in

Dick and even Ochai are nice surprises. But unlikely to be the stars we need to grow the ceiling. OKC has piled on a bunch of nice complimentary players (Joe, Wiggins, Dort, Hartenstein, etc.), but none of that matters. What makes them contenders is the addition of Chet and J to SGA.

We don't have the draft capital to add a core piece without gutting the future like OKC still has, and we've already traded all of our best players without getting that other piece either (still holding out on IQ making a leap maybe).

Wemby, of course, would have been game changing, but even just taking those future picks we missed out on could be the trade value that would have brought another piece in, or the youth that would sustain a Wemby/Barnes dynasty in our best case scenario.

Those are 2 significant plays that are out of our reach due to that one trade deadline mistake.

[YogurtProducer]

I hate this part of the process. I hate tanking. **** the tank. But we gotta do what we gotta do!

Pretty much this.

It’s horrible to watch. But a necessary evil

[DelAbbot]

3rd voting option suggestion: I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

4th voting option: They should have tanked starting at the 2023 deadline. I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

[YogurtProducer]

3rd voting option suggestion: I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

4th voting option: They should have tanked starting at the 2023 deadline. I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

This needs to just die lol

We got Dick + Poeltl instead of whoever in 2023 + Edey or something.

It’s so highly irrelevant at this stage bringing it up anymore is just a waste of breathe

[Duffman100]

3rd voting option suggestion: I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

4th voting option: They should have tanked starting at the 2023 deadline. I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

This needs to just die lol

We got Dick + Poeltl instead of whoever in 2023 + Edey or something.

It’s so highly irrelevant at this stage bringing it up anymore is just a waste of breathe

Dick + Poeltl vs Ausur Thompson + Edey.

Meh?

[Ell Curry]

4th voting option: They should have tanked starting at the 2023 deadline. I'm at acceptance. It is what it is.

This needs to just die lol

We got Dick + Poeltl instead of whoever in 2023 + Edey or something.

It’s so highly irrelevant at this stage bringing it up anymore is just a waste of breathe

Dick + Poeltl vs Ausur Thompson + Edey.

Meh?

Yeah, it was a bad set of moves but Orlando saved us by drafting Jett Howard instead of Grady Dick which as a Michigan fan was at least as crazy then as it was now. Jett has height and can shoot, so he might end up a bench player, but he couldn't pass or defend and just had as low a "got that dog in em" rating as I can remember seeing from a non-center going in the lottery.

So, it's fair to ding Masai for this, but in the end we probably got bailed out by opposing GM incompetence, which has always been a massive part of NBA team building.

[Duffman100]

This needs to just die lol

We got Dick + Poeltl instead of whoever in 2023 + Edey or something.

It’s so highly irrelevant at this stage bringing it up anymore is just a waste of breathe

Dick + Poeltl vs Ausur Thompson + Edey.

Meh?

Yeah, it was a bad set of moves but Orlando saved us by drafting Jett Howard instead of Grady Dick which as a Michigan fan was at least as crazy then as it was now. Jett has height and can shoot, so he might end up a bench player, but he couldn't pass or defend and just had as low a "got that dog in em" rating as I can remember seeing from a non-center going in the lottery.

So, it's fair to ding Masai for this, but in the end we probably got bailed out by opposing GM incompetence, which has always been a massive part of NBA team building.

At what point do you give credit to a GM vs dinging them for the incompetence of others?

When does it become a 'nice find' rather than 'everyone was dumb for passing on them'?

[Ell Curry]

Dick + Poeltl vs Ausur Thompson + Edey.

Meh?

Yeah, it was a bad set of moves but Orlando saved us by drafting Jett Howard instead of Grady Dick which as a Michigan fan was at least as crazy then as it was now. Jett has height and can shoot, so he might end up a bench player, but he couldn't pass or defend and just had as low a "got that dog in em" rating as I can remember seeing from a non-center going in the lottery.

So, it's fair to ding Masai for this, but in the end we probably got bailed out by opposing GM incompetence, which has always been a massive part of NBA team building.

At what point do you give credit to a GM vs dinging them for the incompetence of others?

When does it become a 'nice find' rather than 'everyone was dumb for passing on them'?

I guess if we got granular I would say:
Siakam was an incredible find
OG and Grady Dick were obvious picks who fell, but absolutely kudos for not passing like the others who let them slide did
Van Vleet there was some math pointing to him but considering he wasn't gonna go top 50 or whatever, let's say incredible find
Norm Powell, that was an excellent find.
Flynn, bad pick but understandable, there were stats suggesting he could really run a P+R, shoot the ball and he had a great rep on D
Poeltl is maybe the most on the nose pick Masai ever made
Barnes, great pick over Suggs, seems like maybe a third of teams or so agreed with it (or is that wrong, I only quarter remember what the reporting/Thorpe claims were)

[Anticon]

I hate this part of the process. I hate tanking. **** the tank. But we gotta do what we gotta do!

Pretty much this.

It’s horrible to watch. But a necessary evil

I'm curious. Do you actually find it horrible? They haven't won, but the games have mostly been fun and promising, and I'm honestly not clear what moves they would make if they didn't want to tank.

I compare that to how bad some of the previous tanking years were (11-12 when they couldn't even tank for Harrison Barnes), and it's been much more enjoyable.

[Scase]

I'm sorry Billy, but you don't have the time stone. The decision to tank at the deadline when we were in the 5th spot and tried to stay there gets you those odds. We don't know what the outcome would have been.

The feeling about the tank is great, but will only remain that way if we can ensure it. Moving veterans alone likely solves that for us. We could be feeling a little less dependent on it if we hadn't mortgaged the future over the last 2 years. But we're basically at the Siakam/Fred/Norm (all of our current comps being slightly better) stage and have an extra 2026 pick as the only added asset to it. Slim amount of assets for a team that lost or traded away it's entire starting lineup over the last 2 years.

Actually, you don't need the time stone. We actually do know that the lottery ended up awarding the 2nd place odds (I.e. the team that ended with the second worst record obtained the lottery combination that eventually beget Wemby). Unless you think the lottery balls knew that the Spurs owned that combination, and that was some sort of impact to the random draw? Are you suggesting that the Raptors losing more would have impacted the lottery results? These things seem to be completely independent from my perspective, but I suppose you can never know the true butterfly effect of things.

I agree based on what actually happened with the lottery, had we tanked in 2023 instead of making the Poeltl trade in the failed attempt to make the playoffs, we still would not have been bad enough to be bottom 3 needed to get Wemby. We got Gradey who's looking good, so I agree the trade did not have a detrimental impact re 2023 draft.

However, it did materially impact the 2024 draft because, as you alluded, we likely would've drafted Zach Edey. His age is in line with Barnes and whomever we select in '25 draft and I project him to become a better C than Poeltl.

So, of the 2, Poeltl is the better player today, thus he helps us win more games this year at the expense of potentially a dimmer future in the form of a lower 2025 pick. So, the trade, while not impacting '23 draft, did impact '24 and will impact '25 drafts.

Tell this to the big brains out there that think gunning for the play in and hoping for the 1st OA pick with a 3% chance like the hawks is a viable build strategy.