Pulse check: Tank

[bluerap23]

Interesting stuff. This may be the most pro-tank this board has ever been.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

i hate the tank but the team sucks and to set this team up for the future, we still need more young and controllable talent.

[Ell Curry]

It's rare that you can lose at a high rate while also losing a lot of close exiting games.

Margin of Raptor losses this season:

2 pts (3 times)
3 pts
4 pts
5 pts
6 pts
11 pts
14 pts
15 pts
20 pts
30 pts

Other than a couple games, the Raps have been in these games, and a lot of them have gone down to the wire.

Our expected W/L is 4-10 and we're 2-12, so we've caught a couple of breaks (if you're pro-tank).

So that suggests we're a 25 win team with IQ out for the whole year and with Barnes missing 60 games, which feels about right. Hard to be worse than 25 games with an average starting center, 3 passable rotation NBA wings in Barrett, Dick and Agbaji and Mitchell at least playing well on defence and Boucher is genuinely playing well so far. 1st in the league in O-rebounds. Hard to be a 20 win or lower team when you do even one thing that well.

The question is how much better are with Barnes and IQ.

Seems like the biggest issues are

1) We're 30th in 3pt rate
-IQ is high volume and Barnes' passing and drawing some attention should hopefully open up more 3s for the guys around him.

2) We don't create turnover while committing by far the most fouls in the league, which frankly should be impossible since playing that aggressively should lead to at least average creation of turnovers, and we're if not gambling for turnovers, we should be committing less fouls
-Hard to say what's going on here exactly. Might just be the team not knowing each other well.

3) Minutes for G-League players:
-Should take care of itself. We are getting absolutely cooked with Shead out there and Mitchell becoming the backup PG when IQ comes back will take care of that. Battle and Fernando also have bad plus/minuses and being replaced by Barnes/Olynyk (Barnes will also take other minutes, but Battle's will be gone and even if Olynyk isn't back, more smallball with Barnes and Mogbo inside probably won't be any worse than trotting out Fernando).

Is it enough to suggest we'll be .500 when IQ and Barnes are back? Hard to say, but I definitely wouldn't rule it out. If you take their win shares last year, they'd be worth roughly 12 wins if both played 82 games, so we'd be in the high 30s, which feels about right.

So if we assume we're healthy and play at a 37-45 rate for the last 40 games or so with IQ back, hopefully are at like 12-30 by then. Then we're just one 2-3 week injury from any core guy from ending up about 30 wins, a top 5 draft slot (ESPN has even 32 wins right now as getting the 3rd draft slot, but their BPI measure tends to group teams towards the middle and let's say 1-2 teams will be beset by injuries and at least 1-2 other teams will brutally tank their seasons via trades and sitting out guys).

I thought we'd have to move Poeltl to tank, especially if you'd told me that Grady and Agbaji would improve this much. But now I think we can probably just about sneak a really good draft slot with a normal amount of injury absences (not including Barnes being out another few games and IQ's long period out), end the season with some friskiness that maybe moves us annoyingly from say 3rd worst to 5th worst and hope the lottery gods don't punish us for that, add a good wing and next year it's probably play-in city, maybe even make a move to improve in the summer of 2026, with say RJ's expiring as salary ballast.

[ItsDanger]

90% of the board love the tank. Therefore, the anti tank commentary is likely a very small minority. Treat their opinions as such.

[ishoy123]

Raptors are in a weird place where they're obviously tanking and are in last place, but the games are still fun to watch and vibes are oddly good

[billy_hoyle]

Team needs another star level talent.

With the injuries we are going to lose alot anyway.

It's also quite advantageous to get Shead, Mogbo and Battle as many reps as possible. This will lead to losses.

Not to mention letting Dick and RJ expand their roles.

Good stuff all around IMO.

Look to trade Boucher, Bruce and even Yak if the price is right.

Simply adding Flagg, Ace or Demin to this team greatly increases the ceiling.

IQ - Davion - Shead
Ochai - RJ - Walter
Flagg/Ace/Demin - Dick - Battle
Scottie - Mogbo - Chomche
Poeltl - KO

That's no return on/of Bruce or Boucher.
No MLE used next year.
No PDX 2nd.
With 2x1st coming in 2025.

Let's hope for some lottery luck. I'd be looking to get another big somehow, is it trading Boucher and Brown for multiple 2nds and trying to combine those and the PDX 2 plus the Indy first to move up into the mid first?

[Ell Curry]

Let's hope for some lottery luck. I'd be looking to get another big somehow, is it trading Boucher and Brown for multiple 2nds and trying to combine those and the PDX 2 plus the Indy first to move up into the mid first?

It's quite tough to find contracts that match Brown who aren't better players than him.

I could maybe see something like San Antonio - who have 2 firsts for sure and I'd guess 3 (Chicago top 10 protected, they always try to make the play-in and have Lonzo's contract to move and finishing 11th-14th and not making the playoffs or keeping their pick would look pretty bad) and maybe even 4 (Charlotte lottery protected, that's probably safe) - trading us a lesser 2025 1st for one of our 2026 1sts just to space out their picks.

But unless we get some injuries from guys making 15M+ on playoff teams (Melton on the Warriors is a decent start), I think it will be tough sledding to get much for Brown. Same for Boucher, though much easier contract to trade for. There's really a shocking lack of bad money contracts floating out there, particularly from good teams. I think we might get caught holding the bag on the Brown and Boucher deals.

I feel like Barrett is our best shot at getting a late 2025 1st. Orlando could trade us theirs or Denver's 1st, Cole Anthony, Jett Howard and Gary Harris and they'd at least get an intriguing bench scorer in Barrett. Or maybe something like:

Chicago - Smart, Konchar,
Toronto - Memphis 2025 lotto protected 1st, Lonzo Ball, Javon Carter
Memphis - Poeltl, Boucher

and we take on 7M in bad money next year (Javon Carter), Memphis gets a 5 for 2 guys who they're struggling with on the court right now and saves 8M next year, Chicago gets 2 complimentary guys who should fit okay with their core to plug into their rotation for 20M in money next year.

Leaves us centre-less, but with an added first.

I couldn't find any deal for even Brown + PDX 2nd for a late first that made sense for the other team.

[DelAbbot]

90% of the board love the tank. Therefore, the anti tank commentary is likely a very small minority. Treat their opinions as such.

Why then is the tank commentary banned for GT despite 90%+ support for it?

[Scase]

Interesting stuff. This may be the most pro-tank this board has ever been.

I still wouldn't call it pro tank, I think it's still a lot of people that if they had it their way, the team would be .500 aiming for the play in. They just have no choice right now but to accept it. We aren't 2-11 by accident.

We all saw the discussions over the course of the summer, the most realistically optimistic posters were thinking a 35 win team, they didn't want to tank and they hated the idea of it. They are just past the bargaining and depression stages finally.

[Scase]

90% of the board love the tank. Therefore, the anti tank commentary is likely a very small minority. Treat their opinions as such.

Why then is the tank commentary banned for GT despite 90%+ support for it?

The beatings will continue until morale improves

[bluerap23]

Interesting stuff. This may be the most pro-tank this board has ever been.

I still wouldn't call it pro tank, I think it's still a lot of people that if they had it their way, the team would be .500 aiming for the play in. They just have no choice right now but to accept it. We aren't 2-11 by accident.

We all saw the discussions over the course of the summer, the most realistically optimistic posters were thinking a 35 win team, they didn't want to tank and they hated the idea of it. They are just past the bargaining and depression stages finally.

91% of respondents said "Love it". Not sure what more proof you need. You may have an opinion about people on this board, but that isn't backed up by how people are actually responding.

I'd classify myself as someone that is generally anti-tank, but I have been all-in on the tank this year since before the season. This draft is just so good and the timing is perfect.

[Johnny Bball]

Some of you just never can read the room. Especially during a tank, and even if most people are pro-tank.... you just fail to read the room.

[Scase]

Interesting stuff. This may be the most pro-tank this board has ever been.

I still wouldn't call it pro tank, I think it's still a lot of people that if they had it their way, the team would be .500 aiming for the play in. They just have no choice right now but to accept it. We aren't 2-11 by accident.

We all saw the discussions over the course of the summer, the most realistically optimistic posters were thinking a 35 win team, they didn't want to tank and they hated the idea of it. They are just past the bargaining and depression stages finally.

91% of respondents said "Love it". Not sure what more proof you need. You may have an opinion about people on this board, but that isn't backed up by how people are actually responding.

I'd classify myself as someone that is generally anti-tank, but I have been all-in on the tank this year since before the season. This draft is just so good and the timing is perfect.

Well to be fair, it's a biased set of answers. Also a bit misleading depending on the interpretation of it.

I don't love tanking, but I know it's a necessity for us, so my only option is love it. I imagine had it been "Love it", "Hate it", "Making the best of a bad situation", "Still wished we made some trades to win", you'd see a different split.

Putting up a poll saying do you love getting kicked in the head, or hate it, with the alternative being getting shot.

91% of people say they love it, it doesn't mean they love getting kicked in the head, they just don't want to get shot lol. Leading questions are kinda a big deal with surveys.

[YogurtProducer]

Interesting stuff. This may be the most pro-tank this board has ever been.

I still wouldn't call it pro tank, I think it's still a lot of people that if they had it their way, the team would be .500 aiming for the play in. They just have no choice right now but to accept it. We aren't 2-11 by accident.

We all saw the discussions over the course of the summer, the most realistically optimistic posters were thinking a 35 win team, they didn't want to tank and they hated the idea of it. They are just past the bargaining and depression stages finally.

If we were .500 through 13 games in which Barnes and IQ both missed 10 of them and having the leagues hardest schedule, that would definitely be preferable to this.

As hard as it is foryouto believe - winning games and actually being good isn't a bad thing

[YogurtProducer]

90% of the board love the tank. Therefore, the anti tank commentary is likely a very small minority. Treat their opinions as such.

Where is the anti-tank commentary you are speaking of?

[Brinbe]

everything going as perfectly as possible so far. it's all for the greater good in the end, which is to be possible contenders.

No one is asking for five years of this. But in our present circumstances, wherein we know we need more high end talent, it makes sense to punt a year and pray to the lotto gods to look favorably upon us.

Is that a full-proof plan to succeed? Of course not. But I think it's where the FO are at too. They don't want to ultimately be a treadmill team and waste our time.

You add a Bailey, Cooper, Denim, or Edgecombe, Harper, Traore or Maluach to this mix of players and suddenly that core looks a lot better.

Short-term pain, long-term gain.

[sidsid]

Seems like the only negative is the 10% chance at Wemby. I don't know if you can consider that a catastrophic decision, as the odds are so slim that they are not in your favour even if you do exactly what you wanted. The high lotto pick seems unimportant now that Gradey Dick is looking like a top 5 pick from this very draft. Oh, you're welcome for Gradey, btw. That's what we got by losing the play-in

Dick and even Ochai are nice surprises. But unlikely to be the stars we need to grow the ceiling. OKC has piled on a bunch of nice complimentary players (Joe, Wiggins, Dort, Hartenstein, etc.), but none of that matters. What makes them contenders is the addition of Chet and J to SGA.

We don't have the draft capital to add a core piece without gutting the future like OKC still has, and we've already traded all of our best players without getting that other piece either (still holding out on IQ making a leap maybe).

Wemby, of course, would have been game changing, but even just taking those future picks we missed out on could be the trade value that would have brought another piece in, or the youth that would sustain a Wemby/Barnes dynasty in our best case scenario.

Those are 2 significant plays that are out of our reach due to that one trade deadline mistake.

I didn't imply Ochai was a future star. I'm not sure why you're skeptical of Gradey Dick becoming one, and citing Williams as an example, who was worse than Gradey at an older age.

We have draft capital to add a core piece, it's ignorant to suggest otherwise. We have all our picks and Indiana's 2026 pick. We even have this pick, if they believed in Scottie as much as they say they do.

Another way to look at it is that exactly one team benefitted the most from artificially blowing it up in the Wemby draft. And the rest are all still figuring it out. To call it catastrophic is hyperbole.

The NBA has the smallest roster in the big team sports where it's common to have two max players determining if you're a contender or not. We positioned ourselves away or out entirely of the top 5 or 10 of two drafts for a rotation C. It's hard to say what is equivalent in other sports but it is a major setback.

We do have draft capital, to do exactly one move. That's the narrow path I'm talking about. Our recent comps here on the high end are the Dame Bucks, Mitchell Cavs and Bridges Knicks. And that's if we are lucky on development. Teams who are completely out of flexibility, thin depth and have to tinker around the margins for close to a decade.

I wouldn't even want to be the Cavs right now, who are unbeaten. I want to be closer to the Spurs, who are thinking ahead, just like OKC did. OKC has the juice to trade for Giannis without even touching it's core. I know who's future I'm more confident in.

[billy_hoyle]

Let's hope for some lottery luck. I'd be looking to get another big somehow, is it trading Boucher and Brown for multiple 2nds and trying to combine those and the PDX 2 plus the Indy first to move up into the mid first?

It's quite tough to find contracts that match Brown who aren't better players than him.

I could maybe see something like San Antonio - who have 2 firsts for sure and I'd guess 3 (Chicago top 10 protected, they always try to make the play-in and have Lonzo's contract to move and finishing 11th-14th and not making the playoffs or keeping their pick would look pretty bad) and maybe even 4 (Charlotte lottery protected, that's probably safe) - trading us a lesser 2025 1st for one of our 2026 1sts just to space out their picks.

But unless we get some injuries from guys making 15M+ on playoff teams (Melton on the Warriors is a decent start), I think it will be tough sledding to get much for Brown. Same for Boucher, though much easier contract to trade for. There's really a shocking lack of bad money contracts floating out there, particularly from good teams. I think we might get caught holding the bag on the Brown and Boucher deals.

I feel like Barrett is our best shot at getting a late 2025 1st. Orlando could trade us theirs or Denver's 1st, Cole Anthony, Jett Howard and Gary Harris and they'd at least get an intriguing bench scorer in Barrett. Or maybe something like:

Chicago - Smart, Konchar,
Toronto - Memphis 2025 lotto protected 1st, Lonzo Ball, Javon Carter
Memphis - Poeltl, Boucher

and we take on 7M in bad money next year (Javon Carter), Memphis gets a 5 for 2 guys who they're struggling with on the court right now and saves 8M next year, Chicago gets 2 complimentary guys who should fit okay with their core to plug into their rotation for 20M in money next year.

Leaves us centre-less, but with an added first.

I couldn't find any deal for even Brown + PDX 2nd for a late first that made sense for the other team.

Brown + Boucher + PDX 2nd for Ayton. Clear salary, get their potentially high second, give runway to Clingan and RWIII.

Gives us 48 mins of legit C play. Still only 27.

A team DID make the finals with him as a starting center.

Trades like that might make sense.

[Ell Curry]

Brown + Boucher + PDX 2nd for Ayton. Clear salary, get their potentially high second, give runway to Clingan and RWIII.

Gives us 48 mins of legit C play. Still only 27.

A team DID make the finals with him as a starting center.

Trades like that might make sense.

Might well cost us draft slots this year. And we're not gonna be a contender next year even if we do get the #1 pick and Flagg is as good as rookie LeBron (which he won't be), so it's not worth it, even if it makes us better in 2025-26, since we'd be over the tax (and like 15M over with a rookie and say Mitchell back at 7M a year).

Ayton has so much talent, but he just doesn't seem like he wants to play winning basketball. On the other hand, he's started shooting 3s a little bit (and has always been a league average FT shooter, so it's not crazy to think he could be a league average 3pt shooter at the 5).

[Shakril]

90% of the board love the tank. Therefore, the anti tank commentary is likely a very small minority. Treat their opinions as such.

its the other way round, but ok you can live in fantasy land