Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[drosestruts]

Did the front office perhaps pay too much for guys like Vuc and Williams when it appears they weren't competing against anyone for them? Maybe

Did we also sign Coby and Ayo to great value deals? Yes.

What will we do with Giddey? No idea

I just don't think it's set in stone we go out and overpay to keep him.

Giddey is young. Giddey possesses unique talents for his size. Giddey has gotten better every year of his career.

[dougthonus]

Because SGA is the best point guard in the world and Josh Giddey is a PG. This seems like a pretty obvious part of the reason Giddey was kind of demoted at the end of the year and wanted a trade because SGA had rightly taken his spot. Giddey would be a PG and facilitator for Ant/Freak or any other non PG star. Your question is strange.

I also never said he couldn't play with SGA, which is another straw man. I said OKC moved on from him because they had SGA and had other specialty needs to contend. Furthermore, no one determined it couldn't work. Just that they wouldn't make sense together as starters. Not a wise distribution of assets.

I'm really not try to be a jerk or put words in your mouth.

So to me, SGA isn't a great passer / set up guy. He's 6'6 and averages 3x as many FGA as assists. He's a pretty classic dominant on-ball scorer with SG size. Fundamentally, I don't see why SGA as a ball dominant wing player is different from other ball dominant wing players in terms of working with a player like Giddey.

Again, I really don't even understand your questions.

I don't think there is a fundamental difference between highly ball dominant wing scorers in terms of how Giddey would fit with them, and I'm not sure why you do.

You make it sound like contending teams aren't built every year with a weak defender in the starting line up. Its not a death sentence. It depends on the collecive talent of what you put out there and how well they compliment one another. The problem is we have a roster that is basically the opposite of that, which hampers our ability to evaluate Giddey during this tiny window.

Sure, I don't think every team is a set of elite defenders. I think the problem with Giddey is that he is bottom tier on defense and also very poor in terms of offensive efficiency. I don't know if there are any championship teams in the modern NBA that have had a guy like that. Usually your value prop is defense or offensive efficiency (or a combo of both).

The theoretical value prop around Giddey is despite his own efficiency being poor, he increases the efficiency of everyone else so much that he makes up for it and does so by enough to overcome the fact that he's terrible on defense.

But I can't think of an example of that working anywhere else, and I'm not sure the math backs up that he really even increases the team offensive efficiency.

The Thunder theoretically had everything you would want around Giddey, and they still didn't like him as a starting caliber player and asked him to come off the bench and lead the bench unit, which he did not want to do, and requested a trade.

Maybe another way of looking at it is if you have to build a significant chunk of your team to complement a guy, then he has to be good enough to justify the effort, and it doesn't seem like Giddey is good enough to justify the effort. It would then appear that Giddey has to resolve his deficiencies in order to fit in with a wider array of circumstances or take a more niche role.

The 2nd of those things (Giddey taking a more niche, lower paid role) seems like the path we are on (assuming our FO doesn't do something really stupid).

As of today I would not resign Giddey to anything meaningful. But this notion that he's some guy no NBA competitive team should want on its roster in a regular role is pretty laughable to me, and is tantamount to what you are saying.

That isn't what I'm intending to say, so to clarify, I also think Giddey belongs on a roster. Right now, probably as a MLE type bench guard.

And maybe based on this, I should clarify by "work with someone like SGA" as to be a starting caliber highly compensated player. If your primary point is that he's an NBA quality guy and can find a role, I absolutely agree. I don't know what his path to be more than a niche player is without significantly improving his offensive efficiency or defense though (both of which are certainly in the realm of possibility but early returns aren't super promising).

[KissedByaRose1]

I like Giddey and him/Coby/Matas and our draft pick are the only guys i'm interested in seeing with a new Head Coach/New GM hopefully. He hasn't been perfect and I'm not interested in maxing him but the last 3 years post Ball injury have shown me how important it's going to be to have something resembling a traditional point guard/playmaker. His passing has been contagious and i don't think it's a coincidence at all this has been Vooch's best start to season as a Bull with Giddey here.

If we're about to have a bunch of 19/20 year olds running around i at least want someone who can run an Offense and get them the ball in the right spot. 4 years for 80 seems right in this current CBA.

[Stratmaster]

Did the front office perhaps pay too much for guys like Vuc and Williams when it appears they weren't competing against anyone for them? Maybe

Did we also sign Coby and Ayo to great value deals? Yes.

What will we do with Giddey? No idea

I just don't think it's set in stone we go out and overpay to keep him.

Giddey is young. Giddey possesses unique talents for his size. Giddey has gotten better every year of his career.

I agree. But the Vuc contract wasn't an overpay either.

The only contract I have a problem with is Williams. Along with the gifted starting title for 5 seasons. The Bulls have a huge blind spot with this guy and it really reflects poorly on AK and Billy.

Giving a guy a chance to succeed...sure.

Ignoring a consistent negative effect on the team over multiple seasons. Stubborn.

Giving him 90 mil, continuing to start him, encourage him to take on a bigger role, and talk about potential after 5 seasons of this? Asinine insanity.

[dougthonus]

I agree. But the Vuc contract wasn't an overpay either.

The only contract I have a problem with is Williams. Along with the gifted starting title for 5 seasons. The Bulls have a huge blind spot with this guy and it really reflects poorly on AK and Billy.

Giving a guy a chance to succeed...sure.

Ignoring a consistent negative effect on the team over multiple seasons. Stubborn.

Giving him 90 mil, continuing to start him, encourage him to take on a bigger role, and talk about potential after 5 seasons of this? Asinine insanity.

Odd to me you feel that way about Patrick Williams and not Vuc. Prior to this season, Vuc has been one of the worst net rating guys on the team, so has definitely had a consistent negative effect for multiple seasons.

He also was at an age where further decline would be likely (though hilariously, so far this season, he has turned back the clock and been pretty awesome) and his strengths / weaknesses didn't mesh well with the rest of the roster.

From a situational, it's easy to understand why you give Pat a chance after he looked like maybe he was starting to break out before getting hurt in season 4, given his archetype is valuable and the skills he does bring seem like they can pretty trivially project into a player that can be valuable as a rotation piece, and he will be entering his prime so still has some room left to grow iteratively (and he only needs to grow iteratively not transformatively into being a primary offensive weapon) to validate his deal.

Vuc seems way different, the archetype is not valuable. The market for post oriented offensive centers that are bottom tier in defense doesn't seem that good, and based on his age, he should have downside projections and his limitations place significant constraints around what you need to do around him to build a good team.

From a process perspective, Pat is damning because there was no reason to prenegotiate at the high end of his value, let him go to the market and find a suitor. Vuc is damning because you ignored fit, talent, age, and context of your team, but it makes sense to negotiate with him before FA because he was unrestricted and could just leave (though again, you pre-emptively bid way more than anyone else was likely to do, so you didn't do much to assess the actual market).

Either way, with AKME in a vacuum, I think they're pretty consistently missing the boat on maximizing all of their leverage into making the best decisions. They fail on a lot of their moves in a huge variety of ways, which is even worse, because it feels like they simply don't think things through very well at all and make decisions haphazardly.

[DropStep]

The only contract I have a problem with is Williams. Along with the gifted starting title for 5 seasons. The Bulls have a huge blind spot with this guy and it really reflects poorly on AK and Billy.

Giving a guy a chance to succeed...sure.

Ignoring a consistent negative effect on the team over multiple seasons. Stubborn.

Giving him 90 mil, continuing to start him, encourage him to take on a bigger role, and talk about potential after 5 seasons of this? Asinine insanity.

I think it's actually more valid to talk about potential with Pat now that it was a year or two ago, which is odd. The level of his ceiling, and his probability of approaching it, both feel higher now to me than when he was a year younger. He has better effort, and he's more engaged and assertive and creative. It hasn't all translated to performance (yet?), but his changes in this growth spurt, or whatever this is, are worth dreaming about now - certainly more than the second half even two season ago, when he was younger and his floor/ceiling gap should have been at his highest, but his motor was consistently in idle and we hadn't seen many signs. His performance doesn't merit his MLE+ contract at the moment, and it's not like the signs are all huge blinking green, but something is happening with the guy, and that gives him a chance. I'm finding this difference fun to watch even if it's intermittent. Maybe what we've seen in our (extensive) experience with him still isn't all we will get after all, which is what it felt like for a long time, and that's good given that we are pretty pot-committed to him. He's somehow still only Dalton Knecht's age even though he has been starting for 11 years, not sure how that works.

[Stratmaster]

The only contract I have a problem with is Williams. Along with the gifted starting title for 5 seasons. The Bulls have a huge blind spot with this guy and it really reflects poorly on AK and Billy.

Giving a guy a chance to succeed...sure.

Ignoring a consistent negative effect on the team over multiple seasons. Stubborn.

Giving him 90 mil, continuing to start him, encourage him to take on a bigger role, and talk about potential after 5 seasons of this? Asinine insanity.

I think it's actually more valid to talk about potential with Pat now that it was a year or two ago, which is odd. The level of his ceiling, and his probability of approaching it, both feel higher now to me than when he was a year younger. He has better effort, and he's more engaged and assertive and creative. It hasn't all translated to performance (yet?), but his changes in this growth spurt, or whatever this is, are worth dreaming about now - certainly more than the second half even two season ago, when he was younger and his floor/ceiling gap should have been at his highest, but his motor was consistently in idle and we hadn't seen many signs. His performance doesn't merit his MLE+ contract at the moment, and it's not like the signs are all huge blinking green, but something is happening with the guy, and that gives him a chance. I'm finding this difference fun to watch even if it's intermittent. Maybe what we've seen in our (extensive) experience with him still isn't all we will get after all, which is what it felt like for a long time, and that's good given that we are pretty pot-committed to him. He's somehow still only Dalton Knecht's age even though he has been starting for 11 years, not sure how that works.

Whole I don't agree, that is an interesting and reasonable take that I hadn't considered.

[burlydee]

A fundamental premise of this thread is that its hard to evaluate Giddey specifically because he's surrounded by a roster almost entirely comprised of poor defenders, denying us the ability to evaluate how me might play with a team that does not collectively suck on D.

The Thunder were a team of great shooters and defenders, theoretically, the exact guys that would complement Giddey, and they didn't view him as a starting guy.

That seems a bit harsh considering he started 80 games for them last year.

When the Bulls win 60 games, I'll worry about Giddey's fit.

The team still needs to flip Vuc and Lavine. And you have to think it's imperative that they find a defensive center bc it isn't just Giddey who is harmed, it's the entire team. This is where AKs bad team building really takes hold. The Bulls don't just need a defensive point guard, they need interior defenders across the board.

[Infinity2152]

It's hilarious when it's brought up that the Thunder didn't think he was a starting player. Considering he started every single game for three years straight, including last season. Where he started in the playoffs all but two games. Which they lost. Rather than saying the Thunder decide to change their matchup for this series (which did not work), they suddenly after three years decide he wasn't a starter. It's crazy to think it's a knock on Giddey, especially when their record in that same playoff series is better with Giddey starting than without. The Thunder started him for 3 years staright with numerous players they could have started, they very clearly viewed him as a starter. Or he would not have started.

[HomoSapien]

I have a 1-year-old and I work in the west coast, so at best I’m seeing the 4th quarter of some games so my analysis isn’t as valuable as others this season but here it is anyway.

I don’t think the strategy of surrounding Giddey with 4+ defenders makes sense. You only do that for someone who is elite at something and he’s not. He’s a solid offensive player, passer, and rebounder but he’s not showing enough to be someone that you construct a certain type of roster around. He’s constantly being attacked defense, and what he’s providing on offense isn’t enough to live with that. As much as I like his all-around potential on offense, I think I’d rather just commit to Ayo. He’s a young two-way player, pushes the pace, and has shown to be a good distributor when we let him run the offense. I also liked his chemistry with Coby last season.

Giddey, because of his defensive limitations, has to project as a bench player. Maybe he can improve enough to change that projection, but right now he has to overcome both physical limitations and instinctual ones. It’s not impossible to do that, but it’s a steep uphill battle.

Trading him seems unlikely. I can’t imagine he’d have any trade value this season. If we’re already looking to bail on him, that alone would probably kill his value. Signing him to a two-year deal is also an option, but as Doug pointed out, maybe the best thing to do is negotiate hard and try and get him to sign a team friendly Ayo/Coby deal. It’s hard to imagine him having many suitors if he continues to get benched in the 4th.

[HomoSapien]

Certainly not after they realized they already had the best guy on Earth at his position already on their roster, at least.

If your view is he has to be the primary on ball player, then we already know the answer, it doesn't matter what you put around him, he's not good enough as a primary on ball player to have that role regardless of what else is there. That spot is reserved for guys who can take on double/triple teams and still make the offense go.

I think this is where I net out at. I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what he’s capable of doing on offense. Zach and Vuc have played well on offense this year, so that’s helping Giddey rack up assists and get open looks from down town. Sure putting him next to a bunch of elite defenders might hide his weaknesses, but I don’t think he’s good enough to go down that road. If he’s our lead guard, then we’re going to be continually looking for an upgrade. Even on this roster, I think I prefer Ayo and what we’ve seen from Ball before the wrist injury.

[Jcool0]

11 points, 10 assists & 8 rebounds. +13 tonight.

[MikeDC]

Certainly not after they realized they already had the best guy on Earth at his position already on their roster, at least.

If your view is he has to be the primary on ball player, then we already know the answer, it doesn't matter what you put around him, he's not good enough as a primary on ball player to have that role regardless of what else is there. That spot is reserved for guys who can take on double/triple teams and still make the offense go.

I think this is where I net out at. I feel like I have a pretty good idea of what he’s capable of doing on offense. Zach and Vuc have played well on offense this year, so that’s helping Giddey rack up assists and get open looks from down town. Sure putting him next to a bunch of elite defenders might hide his weaknesses, but I don’t think he’s good enough to go down that road. If he’s our lead guard, then we’re going to be continually looking for an upgrade. Even on this roster, I think I prefer Ayo and what we’ve seen from Ball before the wrist injury.

Just ignore the defense. The theory of Giddey was that his offense would outweigh the defensive issues. But the offense isn’t good either.

Another way to put it is that the Bulls offensive fit is pretty ideal for what you want around the theoretical Giddey. 4 guys who are all shooters. Two former all star offense first guys and Coby, who creates gravity as an off ball shooter.

And the result is the league’s 24th best offense.

Maybe that fluctuates a bit, but it seems about right. And that’s with Zach and Vuc playing unsustainably well.

Why isn’t the offense any good even with Zach and Vuc playing well and Coby and Pat playing about to their averages?

Well, a lot of it is because Giddey just is t a good offensive player. If you guard the 4 other guys, either Giddey has to shoot or get to the basket.

He’s not good at either. He turns it over. He’s slow. His shot is bad.

He is a dead end.

[Stratmaster]

I agree. But the Vuc contract wasn't an overpay either.

The only contract I have a problem with is Williams. Along with the gifted starting title for 5 seasons. The Bulls have a huge blind spot with this guy and it really reflects poorly on AK and Billy.

Giving a guy a chance to succeed...sure.

Ignoring a consistent negative effect on the team over multiple seasons. Stubborn.

Giving him 90 mil, continuing to start him, encourage him to take on a bigger role, and talk about potential after 5 seasons of this? Asinine insanity.

Odd to me you feel that way about Patrick Williams and not Vuc. Prior to this season, Vuc has been one of the worst net rating guys on the team, so has definitely had a consistent negative effect for multiple seasons.

He also was at an age where further decline would be likely (though hilariously, so far this season, he has turned back the clock and been pretty awesome) and his strengths / weaknesses didn't mesh well with the rest of the roster.

From a situational, it's easy to understand why you give Pat a chance after he looked like maybe he was starting to break out before getting hurt in season 4, given his archetype is valuable and the skills he does bring seem like they can pretty trivially project into a player that can be valuable as a rotation piece, and he will be entering his prime so still has some room left to grow iteratively (and he only needs to grow iteratively not transformatively into being a primary offensive weapon) to validate his deal.

Vuc seems way different, the archetype is not valuable. The market for post oriented offensive centers that are bottom tier in defense doesn't seem that good, and based on his age, he should have downside projections and his limitations place significant constraints around what you need to do around him to build a good team.

From a process perspective, Pat is damning because there was no reason to prenegotiate at the high end of his value, let him go to the market and find a suitor. Vuc is damning because you ignored fit, talent, age, and context of your team, but it makes sense to negotiate with him before FA because he was unrestricted and could just leave (though again, you pre-emptively bid way more than anyone else was likely to do, so you didn't do much to assess the actual market).

Either way, with AKME in a vacuum, I think they're pretty consistently missing the boat on maximizing all of their leverage into making the best decisions. They fail on a lot of their moves in a huge variety of ways, which is even worse, because it feels like they simply don't think things through very well at all and make decisions haphazardly.

Vuc came here before Demar. Demar was the poor fit.

It's odd to me that you keep talking about Vuc like he is one of the worst centers in the league. He isn't and never has been. Are there several centers I wish we had instead of him, absolutely. But he is worth his pay.

Pat has never looked like he was ready to break out. Ever. And using the injuries as an excuse to give him 90 mil and another chance (not that you did that... you didn't...But some did) is more damning. He hasn't been able to stay on the court in his first contract, even though he played completely passively on the court.

Williams upside is a bench 3 and D guy. What makes it even worse is he is taking up a starting position and inexplicably the team has put all of their chips at this position on... Patrick Williams.

The 2 bad contracts the Bulls took on were Demar and Williams. One diluted the advantages of your 2 other all stars, and the other just isn't very good and they did not, and have not, had anyone as a back up plan for his failure.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Giddey probably should get around a PWill contract.

If KCP and Bruce Brown can make 22 mil a year. Giidey can easily make 18-20.

Look Giddey is a bad defender but people are making it sound like he shouldn't even be on the floor. That's nonsense.

You cant be getting a near triple double every night while being trash. I just think the microscope is on full power for every move he makes. I can literally watch Coby do the same mistakes defensively but there will be no noise. Coby might actually be a worse defender than GIddey so far. You can look it up. So I think its more what we are focusing on.

I dont think we are all for outright getting rid of Giddey. I think the issue has always been the cost.

At this point, I don't think Giddey has a strong case to be making 30 mil so that works in our favor. The league is always about timing so that can work in or against your favor.

[WindyCityBorn]

Giddey will get a fair contract. Probably around $20 or million or so based on what we’ve seen so far. And he would have earned it unlike PWill.

[kodo]

You cant be getting a near triple double every night while being trash. I just think the microscope is on full power for every move he makes. I can literally watch Coby do the same mistakes defensively but there will be no noise. Coby might actually be a worse defender than GIddey so far. You can look it up. So I think its more what we are focusing on.

FWIW,
Isolation Defense
Giddey: 55th percentile
Coby: 39th percentile

P&R Defense
Giddey: 14th percentile
Coby: 16th percentile

Not surprisingly, Giddey was a lot more passable on P&R in OKC, 38th percentile.
I would also expect if Coby went to OKC his defense would also go up significantly with Chet behind him instead of Vuc.

Realistically, our defensive problems aren't going to be solved with a starting lineup of 4 Caruso's + Vuc. We would average 60 ppg. What every sane team has done is start 3/4 scorers + 1/2 defensive bigs. For the inverted formula of offensive/bad defensive center surrounded by defenders to work that center has to be historically good, like Joker level good.

[Chi town]

I want to see Giddey used in more actions to soo what he’s got.

- Put him in the high post as the facilitator.

- Use him as the screener and when a small PG switches get him the ball in the post

- Run some plays to get him the ball on the move like the Jazz will Lauri

We know he only takes wide open 3s, can’t really get by anyone or create much of his own shot.

He’s actually very similar to Lonzo without the D and 3 ball.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I really do think bigger longer players in the front court completely changes the dynamic of defense.

Remove Mobley and Allen from Cleveland's front court. Tell me how good Mitchell and Garland's defense is. Especially Garland with his 6feet and 180 pounds soak and wet. Garland isn't stopping anyone. It would be horrible.

The personal and system really make the difference. As I have said before for Miami. They have hid Robinson and Herro for years. Those two are wet paper towels. But the team defense is sound and have a Jimmy and Bam, so it makes them look more acceptable even though you can see the flaws.

Again our team has 2 players who every team around the league agrees plays very good defense. On top of that, our defensive system is not it yet because we dont have the personal.

[MalagaBulls]

Just let him walk, that is all:

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