Early-Season Top 5

[The-Power]

Thoughts?

I'd have Flagg and Demin pretty firmly in there. Riley is in there right now, too, but less firm and I'm curious to see a bit more from him against better competition. Traoré has not had a great start to the season but certainly for the time being I still have him in the top 5 considering how great he has looked prior to this season. It gets tricky after that. It might well be Tre Johnson as we speak but there's a bunch of players that compete for this spot.

[azcatz11]

Thoughts?

I'd have Flagg and Demin pretty firmly in there. Riley is in there right now, too, but less firm and I'm curious to see a bit more from him against better competition. Traoré has not had a great start to the season but certainly for the time being I still have him in the top 5 considering how great he has looked prior to this season. It gets tricky after that. It might well be Tre Johnson as we speak but there's a bunch of players that compete for this spot.

What are your thoughts on Ace Bailey? I have watched Rutgers twice this season. Most recently Friday against Monmouth. I get RJ Barrett vibes from him tbh. Similar body also.

[babyjax13]

I think I probably need another week to have a reasonably informed opinion, but right now:

1) Flagg
2-5: Bailey, Saraf, Traore, Harper

But I honestly don't know how to order that group. Right now I think I have Bailey 2, but I really have some concerns. I do think that group is very talented, and I like my next layer, too, that includes Johnson, Newell, and Demin. Early droppers are VJ and Gonzales, but I could see VJ developing really quickly and Hugo getting playing time and alleviating concerns. Deep lottery for sure. Lots of guys look better than I expected so far (e.g., my confliction about how much I love Boogie Fland).

[The-Power]

Thoughts?

I'd have Flagg and Demin pretty firmly in there. Riley is in there right now, too, but less firm and I'm curious to see a bit more from him against better competition. Traoré has not had a great start to the season but certainly for the time being I still have him in the top 5 considering how great he has looked prior to this season. It gets tricky after that. It might well be Tre Johnson as we speak but there's a bunch of players that compete for this spot.

What are your thoughts on Ace Bailey? I have watched Rutgers twice this season. Most recently Friday against Monmouth. I get RJ Barrett vibes from him tbh. Similar body also.

I would call me a skeptic. Every time a player his size has a good jumper and baseline athleticism he – deservedly so – draws eye balls. But I am wary of players who think about scoring first, second and third, especially when they also cannot really create easy shots but rather live off converting difficult ones. Which can look very impressive but is actually much less conducive to being a great offensive player.

And what does he offer besides scoring? His ball handling is shaky, he is not a natural playmaker, he is not a great defender, and he doesn't have the physical tools to just naturally put consistent pressure on defenses. I hope he can show me something in those areas, it's not like he's a fully scouted prospect for me – or a finished product, for that matter.

But yeah, right now I think some important ancillary skills are missing and his main strength is not at the level it would need to be to alleviate those concerns. Coupled with questions about his priorities and mindset on the court, I currently have a bunch of players who I like more as NBA prospects.

[The-Power]

...

Any thoughts on Riley? Also, what makes you pause when it comes to Demin compared to the other non-Flagg prospects in your top 5? And could you elaborate on what makes you a believer in Saraf? I haven't seen him play yet so any insights are appreciated!

[TheSuzerain]

BYU's non-con schedule is pathetic. One of the weakest in nation.

Going to be until conference play until Demin faces actual competition.

[The-Power]

BYU's non-con schedule is pathetic. One of the weakest in nation.

Going to be until conference play until Demin faces actual competition.

Nobody should expect him to keep up his insane production and efficiency (if he did, he would challenge Cooper for the #1 pick) but the skills are already there on full display.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Tre Johnson is in my top 5 at least until he starts to look human.

I probably go flagg, bailey, demin, johnson, harper/edgecombe

[clyde21]

flagg, demin, harper, nolan, bailey, mgbako, tre

[The-Power]

flagg, demin, harper, nolan, bailey, mgbako, tre

Unexpected, I like it. He reminds me a lot of Moody to be honest. In which areas do you think he has Moody (clearly) beat to potentially justify a selection in the top 5? I personally can't go there, certainly not yet, but he looks like a potential lottery pick for sure.

[clyde21]

flagg, demin, harper, nolan, bailey, mgbako, tre

Unexpected, I like it. He reminds me a lot of Moody to be honest. In which areas do you think he has Moody (clearly) beat to potentially justify a selection in the top 5? I personally can't go there, certainly not yet, but he looks like a potential lottery pick for sure.

well I had Moody top 5 in 2021 after Mobley, Cade, Green and Suggs (Jalen Johnson #6) so I'm big fan of the Moody archetype.

that said I don't know if I necessarily agree w/ the Mgbako-Moody comp. for starters Mgbako is just in a different threshold of size. he's a legit 6-8. he's also having an absurd start to his sophomore season that's obviously unsustainable but what he's showing today after a pretty solid freshmen season (and he was also a high RSCI guy) there is enough there so far to put him on this list.

[BigGargamel]

My top four is still Flagg, Bailey, Harper, Traore. Five right now would probably be Demin. I want to see conference games before I really make big changes. That's when the men come out to play.

[Catchall]

Right now, I think I'd have it: Flagg, Bailey, Demin, Harper, Edgecombe, Johnson, Traore

I think Flagg is a pretty clear #1 right now. Then I'd likely go with Bailey, who looks to be a somewhat richer Brandon Miller or an Andrew Wiggins whose shots go in. Then I'd go with Demin, hoping that he's close to a proverbial 'Jalen Johnson with a Jumpshot.'

I think the next three are Harper, Johnson and Edgecombe in some order. Edgecombe probably takes a lead there if he shows he's a good enough shooter. His Westbrook-like athleticism gives him an immediate advantage. For now, I'll go with Harper for his all-around game.

I think Traore is going to drop towards the 5 - 7 range, simply because he's smaller and he needs to make tough shots and tough plays to be an advantage creator in the NBA. Maybe he'll do it, but it's a risk factor.

[EmpireFalls]

I am out on Traore. No clue what people are seeing in him. Getting Killian Hayes in all the wrong ways. Doesn’t have a + level trait

[The-Power]

I am out on Traore. No clue what people are seeing in him. Getting Killian Hayes in all the wrong ways. Doesn’t have a + level trait

Elite dribble penetration.

[babyjax13]

...

Any thoughts on Riley? Also, what makes you pause when it comes to Demin compared to the other non-Flagg prospects in your top 5? And could you elaborate on what makes you a believer in Saraf? I haven't seen him play yet so any insights are appreciated!

I've watched Riley some over the summer and he seemed really physically underdeveloped, but I liked the shooting and secondary playmaking. I don't know if I see star, but I could be convinced by a good season (I've seen him play ... two games?). Saraf is just really excellent at reading the game and getting to the rim, did not look out of place against the Blazers. I think his shot needs some work (especially to have a faster release, but also to improve consistency), but in international competitions he was also extremely impressive (I've seen maybe ... 4 games?).

[Chuck Everett]

I will echo that Tre Johnson's shooting ability seems to be the real deal. If it continues, at his height, hard to see him not going somewhere in the top 7. Who wouldn't want the next Ray Allen or Klay Thompson?

[arusinov]

...

Any thoughts on Riley? Also, what makes you pause when it comes to Demin compared to the other non-Flagg prospects in your top 5? And could you elaborate on what makes you a believer in Saraf? I haven't seen him play yet so any insights are appreciated!

1. Saraf is maybe greatest ever scorer in age-categories European championships (huge U18, great U16). Saraf is real 3-level scorer which can get to his spots using both great craftiness and good enough quickness and score efficiently on all 3 levels.

2. Even before season start Saraf was already proven pro-player, which was important player in playoff team in good pro-league for full season.

3.Current season Saraf's performance in Ulm is very impressive. Plays efficiently, cold-blooded, looks as the leader of EuroCup team which is extremely rare.

4.Quick leaner, Always great scorer, he hugely improved PG skills since U16 - not only makes very good reads, and pass in variety of ways (cross-courts, lobs, behind-the-back,... a lot no-looks) but also shows ability to manipulate defenders, showing one direction and making precise assist in another when defender tries to counter. Clearly improved his major liability in driving & finishing with off-hand since start of this season

5.Clutch player which lead his teams to success: not great Israeli U18 was one buzzer shot in OT2 semifinal loss from finals, not good at all Israel U16 finished 5th, He is the player which has the ball and takes almost all decisions in clutch for Ulm.

6.Very good size for PG. also has good enough size and move off-ball well so can play minutes as SG. Unlike what some people claim he's not bad at all athlete (while certainly not elite one) - mostly plays in his own tempo, but has top gear when needed, also finishes strong enough (over dozen dunks in twenty games in Euro U18 & in Ulm).

7.Saraf has good defensive instincts and mostly reads opponents well on defense (he does have tendency to oversell trying to get steals which should be addressed), solid enough one on one defender - overall shouldn't be burden on defense on any level

[76ciology]

My early season top 5

1- Cooper Flagg
2- Egor Demin
3- Dylan Harper
4- Derik Queen
5- VJ Edgecombe

[EvanZ]

Putting this here for reference. My top 12 Freshmen by the stats:

1. Boogie
2. Harper
3. Sorber
4. Demin
5. Josh Harris (North Florida)
6. Robert Hinton (Harvard)
7. Cooper
8. Queen
9. Blake Harper (Howard)
10. Jakucionis
11. Philon
12. Tre

Really intrigued by Jakucionis as a potential Top 5 party crasher.