Rebuilding the Spurs

[Rustyman]

15 Game Review - Part 2

Chris Paul (Grade: A-)
Yes he is old. Yes he is a step slow. However, he has provided more than I thought he would. Only missed one game. Is averaging 10.4 points and 8.4 assists per game in 28 minutes. Now I expect the minutes to come down with Tre being back, however, besides leadership, he is giving more on the court than I think he would.

Harrison Barnes (Grade: B)
The other vet. Harrison is much more inconsistent than I thought he would be however, he is out there 28 minutes per game and while his shooting percentages are decent, he is simply not shooting enough. He is averaging 6.5 shots per game, he should be averaging 10.

Julian Champagnie (Grade: B)
10.9 points per game on decent splits however he is definitely hot and cold. Consistency needs to be added to his game but you can see he is valued as he averages 28 minutes per game and that is not simply because of his 3 ball. If he can prove to be a consistent 3&D player this year, a decent contract in the $15m+ range awaits him at the end of the season.

[Rustyman]

15 Game Review - Part 3

Stephon Castle (Grade: B+)
Looking at the bare numbers, Castle is performing like your typical rookie. Inefficient with splits of 29.8/29.8/68.4, inconsistent and turnover prone at times. Just looking at the numbers, you would expect him to be graded as a C- or D. However, we need to look a little bit closer at his game. He is averaging 24 minutes a game, he plays in crunch time and he makes winning plays (a shot, a steal, a block, a rebound) in crunch time. I think the Spurs has a 10+ year player on their hands and one that above all can contribute in ways which complement Wemby.

Keldon Johnson (Grade: C)
At this stage we have to accept Keldon for what he is. A microwave scorer who can win you games but can also lose you games. I don't think his game IQ is going to improve and if we are looking for someone to trade, this is the person I feel we should move if we can. His game doesn't sync with Victor's and I think it is time the Spurs do him a solid and trade him to a team where he can be a high volume scorer on a poor team. He is a great culture guy but the Spurs have many of them. I would prefer another a**hole like Jeremy who plays with high IQ and knows his role.

Zach Collins (Grade: Incomplete)
I like Zach but I haven't seen enough of him to make a judgement at this stage. He has played less than 15 minutes a game thusfar and I think his days are numbered if Mamu and Bassey show something this year. He is a good insurance policy but at his salary, he is proving to be a fairly expensive one and as another sub-par athlete, the Spurs need active, athletic defenders.

The rest (Bassey, Branham, Mamu, Wesley, Cissoko have not played enough to form an opinion on however, I will say that they all better show up this year or they will be on the way out.

[Rustyman]

Team Grade after 15 games is a B.

Despite Pop's illness, injuries to Sochan, Devin, Wemby and Tre at time, the team has held together. They have competed in a least 3 games this season which they would undoubtedly have lost last year. However, this team is not out of the woods. They still go cold for large periods of the game and simply lose their minds at others.

I have not revised my expectation for the team this year. I still expect a .500 record which would be good progress and set them up for 2-4 FRP's next year, a couple of which may be lottery.

If the Spurs decide to do an in-season trade this year, I think they should go for another veteran and trade away some youth and Keldon/Zach. In fact, if the Spurs are a better than .500 team just before the deadline, I would be looking for a trade with the Nets to get one or more of their young vets.

[G R E Y]

Team Grade after 15 games is a B.

Despite Pop's illness, injuries to Sochan, Devin, Wemby and Tre at time, the team has held together. They have competed in a least 3 games this season which they would undoubtedly have lost last year. However, this team is not out of the woods. They still go cold for large periods of the game and simply lose their minds at others.

I have not revised my expectation for the team this year. I still expect a .500 record which would be good progress and set them up for 2-4 FRP's next year, a couple of which may be lottery.

If the Spurs decide to do an in-season trade this year, I think they should go for another veteran and trade away some youth and Keldon/Zach. In fact, if the Spurs are a better than .500 team just before the deadline, I would be looking for a trade with the Nets to get one or more of their young vets.

I would keep Keldon because his value goes beyond his game with his attitude and personality and corporate knowledge, but of course Zach, even with his improved 3s efficiency and being a terrific guy, has noticeably lost his lift and plays well below the rim. Still, I'm not convinced that the Mamu/Bassey tandem replaces Collins. In other words, I think they are great in their roles, but neither is a true back up big in big minutes behind Wemby. So far. But like you said, we have not seen enough for them to be certain. I am willing to be convinced otherwise.

We have yet to see a full team, with Pop at the helm, to explore all the options and possibilities and potential.

Agree with a healthy B to B+ range given that on the one hand we still have yet to see a full roster but on the other we at times revert to old bad habits, at times mitigating them better than others.

It's not a coincidence we keep drafting guards and I think at least one more will be added in the upcoming draft -- fingers crossed it's Traore.

Branham is not a long term Spur and Blake, bless him, has I proved his D but his O is taking too long.

These would be the rookie contracts I see us moving on from as part of a player package sent out for one more polished piece, perhaps rookie contracts couples with a bigger short or expiring contract incentivized with a pick.

Love how the two vet acquisitions have infused confidence and knowledge in a short time. If we can consolidate our peripheral (outside the main top 10 rotation) assets, all the better. Opportunities will present themselves when the time is right.

[mikejames23]

Keldon pretty much destoyed OKC.

Ok, so we don't have the talent?

Read on Twitter

Derrick White has an NBA title... a much praised defensive guard... Dejounte Murray is an all star. Poeltl dropped some big games for the Raps...

We can develop talent, bounce back and destroy the WC. How do we build around Wemby? That appears to be the challenge. People have projected us winning 40+ games, possibly making a run for the 8th seed...

This season is way more fun to watch than the last one. Doesn't mean there isn't funny stuff going on (Wemby falling in love with the 3 ball)... but this season has hope. And we just beat OKC.

[Rustyman]

I will do another review after 25 games but at this stage I think the Spurs are overall where I though they would be. Ratings based on pre-season expectations.

Positives: Paul, Castle, Barnes, Sochan, Bassey, Castle

Negatives: Branham, Wesley, Keldon, Collins.

Jury is out: Wemby, Vassell, Champagnie, Mamu, Tre.

I really think the Spurs need a consolidation trade with some of the younger players and get 1 more rotation contributor. Preferably a shooter. This should be done at the deadline where we would have had half a season to assess Branham/Westley/Tre/Keldon/Collins and decided what we need.

I would hold on to Tre as we need a backup PG, at least until the end of the season. Collins can only go out if we get a big in return and Keldon can only go out if we get a proven backup scorer, preferably a shooter.

[Rustyman]

Based on current standings, it looks like the Spurs may get one of the Bulls/Hornets pick and 3 first round picks are simply too much for where the Spurs want to be after this year. They should be looking to consolidate assets to get a starting small forward. Backup big and backup PG can be gotten in the second round unless Traore drops.

[G R E Y]

Based on current standings, it looks like the Spurs may get one of the Bulls/Hornets pick and 3 first round picks are simply too much for where the Spurs want to be after this year. They should be looking to consolidate assets to get a starting small forward. Backup big and backup PG can be gotten in the second round unless Traore drops.

Assets are assets, and the more 1sts we can get this deep upcoming draft the better. Say we consolidate some current players for a trade to upgrade for a single player, and assuming at least one or two are on rookie contracts, then having multiple incoming high end draft talents at rookie contracts makes sense.

But also just in terms of being able to make trades come draft time, or even consolidate multiple picks to move up - it's all hugely valuable. At this point, I'd be all dragon hoarding gold mode with those 2025 picks.

I'd be loathe to part with Tre or Keldon. Each has grown his game, is on a good contract, provides great presence to incoming guys, has lots of corporate knowledge. Each has value beyond the sum of these parts. But to get something you have to give something and if an upgrade opportunity presents itself (Nets are in sell mode as pointed out) and the cost works, upgrade we can.

For sure CP3 and Barnes have worked out even better than expected. Targeting those positions with those vets has been a dream come true match.

For sure a backup C upgrade is crucial; for sure a long-term SF solution is a target. I mean, if we can see it of course PATFO can. And given how we shored up the previous season's needs at vet 1 and 3/4, I have every confidence who we are targeting will be just right for us. And we're very well positioned to take advantage of surprise opportunities that may come up along the way.

Still awaiting a full team healthy and our intended starters playing together. .500 without them playing together yet speaks to our depth being better than expected (and to a weird schedule with us playing the same teams repeatedly lol).

[Rustyman]

I'd be loathe to part with Tre or Keldon. Each has grown his game, is on a good contract, provides great presence to incoming guys, has lots of corporate knowledge. Each has value beyond the sum of these parts.

I just re-watched the OKC and Jazz games today and I must say that I was less watching the game and more watching the interactions between the players.

I think I now see a bit of what G R E Y sees in Tre and Keldon. The way the players interact with each other indicates that both are well liked and other players seem to celebrate their success.

Surprising for me (and this may just be small sample size) was the positive interactions between Castle and Wesley. You would think that because they are essentially competing for the same spot, that there might be some tension, however, Wesley seems to be genuinely happy for Castle. I guess because Castle mostly practiced with the bench mob during training camp, he has built up some positive relationships, including with Bassey.

[Rustyman]

I will do another review after 25 games but at this stage I think the Spurs are overall where I though they would be. Ratings based on pre-season expectations.

Positives: Paul, Castle, Barnes, Sochan, Bassey

Negatives: Branham, Wesley, Keldon, Collins.

Jury is out: Wemby, Vassell, Champagnie, Mamu, Tre.

I think these ratings may be misunderstood so I think I need to add some context. My rating are based on my preseason expectations and assumption. For example, I drafted my expectations as follow:

Chris Paul - Honestly, I did not know what to expect from Paul. While he was a great player, I never liked him as earlier in his career, he seemed to be much more of a "me first" players. I never liked him in New Orleans, LA or Houston, despite many great clashes with the Spurs. He seemed to have matured into more of a team player in OKC, Phoenix and Golden State where is was clearly no longer "the man". I did not know if Chris was just here for a final payday (he could not have come to the Spurs hoping to contend) or if he really wanted to work on transitioning into a coach which he could by showing he could help the Spurs as a player and "coach on the floor".

Luckily for the Spurs, he decided to do the latter and I think him holding players accountable, including Victor, is the best possible outcome for the Spurs. I projected Paul to score 12.5 points per game on 45/37/80 splits with 8 assists playing 28 minutes a game and 60 games. He is currently averaging 28 minutes a game but his splits are better than expected at 46.5/38.1/100 with 8.6 assists per game. He is only averaging 10.8 points per game but his impact on winning is I think significant and I think he has been a major contributor to the Spurs being at .500. That is why I rate him as being a positive to date.

[Rustyman]

I said I would do an update after 25 games but as there are so many players to review, I will commence a game early with those guys scheduled to be free agents at the end of the season:

First, the two way contracts:

Harrison Ingram - in the G-League and will stay so for the foreseeable future. Has not been a need for him thusfar and he probably has Sidy ahead of him. Harrison has to lose weight, improve on defense and see if he can develop a jumper as he currently seems to be a PF in a SF body. If he does this during this year, he should be able to get the second year of his two-way confirmed.

Riley Minix - also in the G-League and as I don't follow G-League games, I haven't seen him play however his stats seem to indicate that he is a shooter with 55/44/84 shooting splits on good volume in 30+ minutes a game. Now I don't know if he plays defense, is a smart player or his skills are transferable but the Spurs needs shooters so he seems likely to have his two-way extend for next year.

David Duke Jr. - appears to be an "open in an emergency" kind of player. He is unlikely to ever be talented enough to be a rotation NBA player so I guess that this will be his final year on the Spurs and next year his two-way slot will be filled by Nunez or the latest 2nd round pick.

Mamu - I really like him as I think he adds a skill set we were hoping from Collins, namely a big man outside shooter. Unfortunately he is not getting enough time to make a fair evaluation of his skillset. Hopefully with Collins out for a week or two, we will get a better idea of what Mamu can do. Best case scenario, he is part of a 9 man rotation as a backup C/PF however, I fear that without minutes, another team will take a flyer on him at the end of the season and reap the rewards.

Bassey - I would have made the same comment about Bassey as I did of Mamu however, Bassey has been able to get some backup C minutes in a number of games and has made a positive impression. I think he will be looking to entertain offers significantly better than the minimum at the end of the year if he keeps this up and finally has a healthy season. If I am the Spurs, I offer him an improved deal in February after the trade deadline in the 5-7m range and see if he bites at that for 3 years.

So of these 5 players, we likely get a two way slot and a minimum slot available next year, maybe two. I would keep Bassey if he can show he is able to stay healthy but if Mitch won't play Mamu, I think Mamu can go on to prove that he can be a rotation player elsewhere. Shooting big men are always attractive.

None of these players are critical to the Spurs future but a couple of them may be nice options to retain.

I will deal with Tre and Chris Paul in my next post as those are legitimate rotation players but we have $20m tied up in them and there a real decision needs to be made.

[Rustyman]

The "big ticket" free agents for the Spurs this season are Tre Johnson and Chris Paul. In my opinion, only one of them or even neither of them will be on the roster next year. Both are earning around $10m this year and the question is whether the Spurs choose experience and mentorship over youth and potential.

Firstly, Chris Paul is delivering everything the Spurs could ask for in the first 24 games, however, the question is can he sustain it for the full year. I projected Chris Paul at 28 minutes and 60 games this season at 12.5 points and 8 assists per game and he is currently averaging 28 minutes, 10 points and 8.5 assists per game. If Paul could sustain this, I would keep him over Tre and Paul has expressed that he thinks he wants to play another year or two.

Tre has been injured this year so his stats don't make much sense however, Tre is a backup and his ceiling is around 20 minutes a game and going forward, that is not likely to be cost effective for $10m/year. Especially when you take into consideration that he has Castle, Blake Wesley, Juan Nunez and whatever draft picks they have next year competing with him for the backup spot.

Tre's only chance of coming back is if Chris Paul is traded or retires. In that case, the Spurs have to decide if they value having an experienced backup with knowledge of their system or whether someone already on the roster suffices as a backup. Also, there will be options to pickup a vet PG in the off-season as a backup so I don't see Tre coming back. He better ball out for the rest of the season to line up his next contract.

[Rustyman]

Other bottom of the roster players include Melachi Branham, Blake Wesley and I hate to do this but Zach Collins is included in this group.

With Branham, I think I am out on him. The only thing he seems to bring is inconsistent shooting and even at his salary at $3.2m this year and almost $5m next year, you can get minimum or two-way players who brings what he does. It is disappointing as I had high hopes for Branham when he was drafted as everyone seemed to think he was a steal, however, I guess the talent evaluators were correct, he didn't do anything good enough to be a starter. Also, he has Vassell, Castle, Wesley and even Champagnie ahead of him for a combo guard role and I do believe that if a player doesn't up his game by his third year, you are probably getting what he is.

Wesley is a bit of a conundrum for me. He plays out of control, he lacks vision, he sometimes seems to lack game IQ, however, he is explosive, he plays with heart, he defends on the perimeter like a demon and his teammates seem to like him. I want to see him play out this year to see if he is a real candidate for the backup PG role next season as doing so will allow the team to let Tre go with Wesley costing less than half Tre's salary.

Collins is simply a bad luck story. Every time he seems to be getting back on track, he gets injured or goes into a funk. The Spurs traded for him on the chance that he could be a starter or primary backup at C and he has flashed that ability on numerous occasions however, he only played 20+ games in his first year coming off an injury. He then played 60+ in his second year which prompted the Spurs to give him is overinflated contract, believing that he could be a good pairing with Wemby. That proved to be faulty thinking in his third year as he went into an absolute funk in the first half of 2023 and only started performing better when he went to the bench.

This year once more Collins is plagued by bad form and injury. I think his architype is very valuable being a shooting big man but unfortunately, he is not good at the other big man things like defense, rim protection, rebounding. His time is up and I think a move would be good for both him and the Spurs so it is simply a matter of whether the Spurs can find a trading partner for him in the trading window.

[Rustyman]

Malaki Branham should be gone now! Brian Wright better be on the phone tonight to get him off the Spurs. I don't care if he trades him for a top 59 protected second rounder.

[ValvPiti]

Is Sochan the long term partner up front with Victor? Haven't watched him played a lot this year, but lately he's putting up some fire numbers. Still only 21 y/old.

I guess another question would as well who would be the 2nd most important player on the roster outside of Vic? Vassell, Sochan, Castle..?

[G R E Y]

Is Sochan the long term partner up front with Victor? Haven't watched him played a lot this year, but lately he's putting up some fire numbers. Still only 21 y/old.

I guess another question would as well who would be the 2nd most important player on the roster outside of Vic? Vassell, Sochan, Castle..?

It's really early days yet. Last season was a getting to know tendencies, and though it shouldn't take a whole season, Wemby is a very unique player and Sochan was tasked with duties that over stretched him. And so now they are playing together more in their more comfortable positions and it's coming along nicely. Good two-man game that goes both ways. Sochan seems more willing to not look off Wemby as obviously he did last season to get his. Better synergy. Sochan is smart enough to realize and accept all roads lead to and from Wemby and to Wemby's credit he is looking to expand his passing game so a craftily cutting Sochan benefits a lot.

Sochan is tremendously valuable as an O board getter, cutter, and defender pretty much 1 through 4 and even sometimes small ball 5. He is often tasked with defending the best opponent almost regardless of position.

That said, his 3s form and efficiency have fallen off a cliff and he's gone back to the one handed FT form to try to regain efficiency there. We need him to keep developing this part of his game; it looks as if it's regressed, though ball handling (point Sochan DID have its benefits) is more confident and better touch just about everywhere also add up.

We thought Dev was a clear #2 next to Wemby but Castle may make a case for himself in time. He's already far more polished than when Dev came into the league. That said, Dev is the better overall player but I don't think it will take Castle four years to turn this into an interesting conversation. At some point do we consolidate assets, players included, to get a bigger clear #2 star? When the chance presents itself, and if it makes long term financial sense, I can see it. After all, we can't draft 30 players or however many picks we have. We may consolidate those picks to move up in a crucial upcoming draft.

So as to the above, there's no single player that makes us a contender right now. We need more talent.

I think smaller deals like a high quality dependable back up C is in order, but we play things out until at least this upcoming draft, keeping assets available to pounce on a player or players we've been targeting.

Then, after enough reps together of current players and some extra draft talent infusion, we can separate wheat from chaff and look to consolidate and make some power deals for more win now star(s) who fit our long term timeline and budget.

[Rustyman]

We thought Dev was a clear #2 next to Wemby but Castle may make a case for himself in time. He's already far more polished than when Dev came into the league. That said, Dev is the better overall player but I don't think it will take Castle four years to turn this into an interesting conversation. At some point do we consolidate assets, players included, to get a bigger clear #2 star?

I don't want to pile on Devin after a single game but this year he absolutely has to show he is worth his contract. He is being paid around an average of $27m/year. That is the money for at worst a third option on a contending team. He has to show he is worth it or he becomes tradeable.

Castle, while a great defender and has good, not great vision, seems to me will have problems with his shooting for a couple of years yet. That is okay as a combo guard but not as a starting SG.

For me, it is still early days, but I think the clear cut second best player on the Spurs is Sochan.

[Rustyman]

Is Sochan the long term partner up front with Victor? Haven't watched him played a lot this year, but lately he's putting up some fire numbers. Still only 21 y/old.

I guess another question would as well who would be the 2nd most important player on the roster outside of Vic? Vassell, Sochan, Castle..?

Yep, I think Sochan is the 2nd best player on the Spurs right now. However, you will find very differing opinions amongst Spurs fans.

[Rustyman]

I really see the Nuggets as the template for the Spurs. Dominant big man (in different ways), high energy big man (Sochan/Gordon), electric scorer (Vassell/Murray) with good role players around them. Despite Murray's problems, Vassell is still aways from being an equivalent scorer or threat.

[G R E Y]

We thought Dev was a clear #2 next to Wemby but Castle may make a case for himself in time. He's already far more polished than when Dev came into the league. That said, Dev is the better overall player but I don't think it will take Castle four years to turn this into an interesting conversation. At some point do we consolidate assets, players included, to get a bigger clear #2 star?

I don't want to pile on Devin after a single game but this year he absolutely has to show he is worth his contract. He is being paid around an average of $27m/year. That is the money for at worst a third option on a contending team. He has to show he is worth it or he becomes tradeable.

Castle, while a great defender and has good, not great vision, seems to me will have problems with his shooting for a couple of years yet. That is okay as a combo guard but not as a starting SG.

For me, it is still early days, but I think the clear cut second best player on the Spurs is Sochan.

I agree with your assessment of Dev and Steph and I think Sochan can become our #2 but his 3s shooting regression is something to monitor this season. It's abysmal and the regression after all that talk of adjusting the form and doing tons of summer reps makes for a legitimate question. Otherwise teams will isolate the hell out of him on the arc and we'll be disadvantaged 4 on 5 on O. So right now it's not so clear cut. It's up to him what ceiling he reaches.

Castle 3 is also problematic. So both of them starting is an issue in terms of spacing/arc shooting.

So it makes more sense to have Dev starting - can't wait for CP3, Dev, Barnes, Sochan, Wemby.