Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[TimberKat]

You guys do realize this is effectively trading Towns for Issac, Joseph, DDV, 2nd round picks. Why are we doing this?

The two trades would break down to be

Keep Karl Towns $49,205,800 $53,142,264 $57,078,728 $61,015,192

or

D. DiVincenzo $11,445,000 $11,990,000 $12,535,000
JonathanIsaac $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $14,500,000 $14,500,000 $15,000,000
Corey Joseph $3,303,771 (vet min)
2025 DEN 1st
Future possible DET 1st

The $27 and $30 mil savings the next two years may allow us to keep Naz, and/or control decent pieces for a future star trade.

So for me, the trade would be Towns for Isaac, DiVincenzo, Naz and 1-2 1sts, which I think is a fair return, given KAT’s supermax.

I think we could keep Naz by other means, we get some money next year from Gobert's contract. Also won't have Ingles. Naz's salary at most will be 20mil ( for 6th man like Monk and Powell). If I have to choose to keep Towns, Naz, or NAW, I would definitely take Towns. Is anyone in the return that we think will be an NBA all star (including Naz)?

I am not concerned with 2nd Apron because it's not my money, our roster is relatively set, and we will drop back down in a couple years.

[Danimals]

I have zero belief that Randle is good enough to be the second best player on a championship team. We clearly traded Towns for financial reasons, and probably some consideration for fit. We need to try to develop our second best player at this point. This is exactly why the trade was so disappointing. It’s a clear step back.

[Klomp]

What do people think about Randle for Isaiah Stewart and Tim Hardaway Jr., possibly rerouting Hardaway to a third team if necessary?

[Norseman79]

What do people think about Randle for Isaiah Stewart and Tim Hardaway Jr., possibly rerouting Hardaway to a third team if necessary?

I just don't think it's enough, or enough upside. Again, not saying it isn't realistic, but honestly, I don't know what realistic is for Randle

[Klomp]

What do people think about Randle for Isaiah Stewart and Tim Hardaway Jr., possibly rerouting Hardaway to a third team if necessary?

I just don't think it's enough, or enough upside. Again, not saying it isn't realistic, but honestly, I don't know what realistic is for Randle

I tend to agree, to be honest. There just aren't many options out there that make a ton of sense for both teams.

[cmoss84]

3WAY (my math is off somewhere...cannot figure it out)

MN in: Coby White, Patrick Williams ($30)
MN out: Randle, TSJ, Minott ($38)
why: value for Randle...young, cost effective, solid players to add to the core. Save a little money.

Chi in: Randle, DLo, Max Christie, Reaves, TSJ, Lakers '28 and '30 1st rd picks ($76)
Chi out: Lavine, White, Williams, Dosunmu ($80)
why: get out of Lavine's contract, audition for Randle, a few nice pieces and draft picks. Basically a complete tear down.

LAL in: Lavine, Dosunmu, Minott ($52)
LAL out: DLo, Reaves, 2 1sts ($32)
why: roll the dice on Lavine as a 3rd star, get rid of Dlo, keep mostly everything else in tact.

[shrink]

I got some interesting feedback on that MIA-MIN-ORL trade from a Heat fan, who said he’s rather let Jimmy expire than take Randle. This is wrong, in several ways. I wrote:

Jimmy (35) has a $52.4 mil player option next year. Randle (29) has a PO for $30.9.

Obviously with player options, the Heat don’t control the “just let the guy expire” process with either. Part of the goal of the trade was to send players where they would be happier, where teams have more leverage to get a cheaper future contract from a player that wants to be there.

But if your goal is truly “expire,” there is a far greater chance you get Randle to decline his player option than Jimmy.

But this got me to thinking. Player options never favor the team, because if a player is worth more than his contract, he walks, and if he is worth less, he stays and sticks the team with an overpaid contract. That said, Randle’s $30.9 is probably a reasonable contract in today’s NBA for what Randle provides as a second option on offense. (However 36 year old, often injured Jimmy is not getting any team to pay him $52 next year, so my trade is bad for ORL). The fact that Randle’s PO is reasonable makes it less likely to be exercised, and even then, Randle walking doesn’t hurt us that badly since we probably spend the money on Naz and NAW.

(More)

[shrink]

But what is interesting here is that is it possible we extend Randle?!?

Sounds crazy, but it might make sense for Randle and the Wolves.

First, Randle might look out at the teams expected to have cap space next year, and realize it’s unlikely a competitive team is going to break the bank for him. He may hope that he ups his play in a contract year to be more valuable, but there is no guarantee MIN can afford to bring him back, even if he does. He really seems like he wants to be on a contender, he likes Ant and he loves Finch, so signing a reasonable extension might increase his chances of staying here.

Second, MIN might do it not just to avoid losing talent for nothing to free agency, but for asset management. MIN is restricted from sign-and-trades by apron issues, but sign him now and he can be a trade asset in the summer if things don’t work out. Putting him on a fair contract protects the Wolves, since they should be able to find a buyer. There is also a lot of precedent lately for players that take less to stay with the Wolves, that could drive his asking price lower.

I have mentioned before that our payroll may mean it’s Randle or Naz. That’s a big over-simplification. With Gobert’s extension, it’s not impossible we keep both. And even if finances are too important, you could sign Naz, and while you can’t trade him because of the apron, you could trade him later in the season. If a Randle or Naz trade is needed, they can always be for less salary, though this would be easier with Randle in the summer when teams have more flexibility.

I get it. Randle has not fit in on defense. But is anyone sure that he can’t get to at least KAT level over the next few months? If you lock Randle in on a reasonable contract (say, three years, $100 mil), then you not only motivate him, but you have him locked up if he can improve his defense and fit in. If he doesn’t, then Randle on a reasonable deal could bring MIN extra assets.

[Klomp]

But what is interesting here is that is it possible we extend Randle?!?

Sounds crazy, but it might make sense for Randle and the Wolves.

First, Randle might look out at the teams expected to have cap space next year, and realize it’s unlikely a competitive team is going to break the bank for him. He may hope that he ups his play in a contract year to be more valuable, but there is no guarantee MIN can afford to bring him back, even if he does. He really seems like he wants to be on a contender, he likes Ant and he loves Finch, so signing a reasonable extension might increase his chances of staying here.

Second, MIN might do it not just to avoid losing talent for nothing to free agency, but for asset management. If you lock Randle in on a reasonable contract (say, three years, $100 mil), then you not only motivate him, but you can see if he can improve his defense and fit in. MIN is restricted from sign-and-trades by apron issues, but sign him now and he can be a trade asset in the summer if things don’t work out. Putting him on a fair contract protects the Wolves, since they should be able to find a buyer. There is also a lot of precedent lately for players that take less to stay with the Wolves, that could drive his asking price lower.

Lastly, I have mentioned before that our payroll may mean it’s Randle or Naz. That’s a big over-simplification. With Gobert’s extension, it’s not impossible we keep both. And even if finances are too important, you could sign Naz, and while you can’t trade him because of the apron, you could trade him later in the season. If a Randle or Naz trade is needed, they can always be for less salary, though this would be easier with Randle in the summer when teams have more flexibility.

I think the biggest factor in an extension is whether he would accept an extension with an opt-in on next season. For me, that's a significant difference-maker.

The toughest part is managing the Naz Reid side of this. If they can extend Randle without affecting Reid's willingness to sign in the offseason, that's a massive home run.

[Norseman79]

But what is interesting here is that is it possible we extend Randle?!?

Sounds crazy, but it might make sense for Randle and the Wolves.

First, Randle might look out at the teams expected to have cap space next year, and realize it’s unlikely a competitive team is going to break the bank for him. He may hope that he ups his play in a contract year to be more valuable, but there is no guarantee MIN can afford to bring him back, even if he does. He really seems like he wants to be on a contender, he likes Ant and he loves Finch, so signing a reasonable extension might increase his chances of staying here.

Second, MIN might do it not just to avoid losing talent for nothing to free agency, but for asset management. If you lock Randle in on a reasonable contract (say, three years, $100 mil), then you not only motivate him, but you can see if he can improve his defense and fit in. MIN is restricted from sign-and-trades by apron issues, but sign him now and he can be a trade asset in the summer if things don’t work out. Putting him on a fair contract protects the Wolves, since they should be able to find a buyer. There is also a lot of precedent lately for players that take less to stay with the Wolves, that could drive his asking price lower.

Lastly, I have mentioned before that our payroll may mean it’s Randle or Naz. That’s a big over-simplification. With Gobert’s extension, it’s not impossible we keep both. And even if finances are too important, you could sign Naz, and while you can’t trade him because of the apron, you could trade him later in the season. If a Randle or Naz trade is needed, they can always be for less salary, though this would be easier with Randle in the summer when teams have more flexibility.

I think the biggest factor in an extension is whether he would accept an extension with an opt-in on next season. For me, that's a significant difference-maker.

The toughest part is managing the Naz Reid side of this. If they can extend Randle without affecting Reid's willingness to sign in the offseason, that's a massive home run.

Not just Naz, but Miller too. They keep saying they are high on him, he needs a chance at some point.

Honestly, I could see them moving 2-3 players to upgrade, but also could see them do nothing. Plus, we don't know how relationship between T.C. and guys like Naz are, and the whole ownership situation....

[Klomp]

Not just Naz, but Miller too. They keep saying they are high on him, he needs a chance at some point.

Miller is still under contract for two additional seasons after this year. He's not part of the equation for Reid or Randle at this point, and there is no equation to be had yet for Miller.

[winforlose]

If Randle improves on defense we might keep him. If not, his solid offensive performance plus contract friendliness might get us some value back. The real question is how much money is ownership trying to save with that value. Do we seek a substantial discount and only get back 1-2 players at half the cost, or do we maintain the full salary slot and pay the tax. I don’t see us giving up NAW with Donte’s shooting struggles when playing on ball. That means we do need backups at PF and C but the rise of Minott might solve some of the PF issues. Ownership should be settled by the trade deadline (hopefully,) and that should provide some clarity.

[cmoss84]

Not just Naz, but Miller too. They keep saying they are high on him, he needs a chance at some point.

Miller is still under contract for two additional seasons after this year. He's not part of the equation for Reid or Randle at this point, and there is no equation to be had yet for Miller.

Miller is very much part of the equation. If he is ready, we can trade Randle/Reid (preferably Randle) for more long term pieces. Only so many minutes to go around. If I am the FO, I am dealing Randle ASAP. Unless we just can't get any value for him, which we should be able to.

[Norseman79]

Not just Naz, but Miller too. They keep saying they are high on him, he needs a chance at some point.

Miller is still under contract for two additional seasons after this year. He's not part of the equation for Reid or Randle at this point, and there is no equation to be had yet for Miller.

No, but if they think that highly of him then there's no reason to resign those guys depending on amount or they could possibly trade one if not both. Again I'm not saying it's going to happen I'm saying there really hasn't been a whole lot of transparency. I wasn't talking as far as signing and salary cap I meant as far as plans / future plans. Really the only two spots that are pretty set are shooting guard and small forward.

[Sealab2024]

They aren't trading Randle. I'd look for them to make a bench move for a backup defensive center. If they could move Minott (who I really like, but who is just buried behind guys here) and Garza for a legit 12-16 minute a night backup center who can defend things could change pretty drastically on the court.

[winforlose]

They aren't trading Randle. I'd look for them to make a bench move for a backup defensive center. If they could move Minott (who I really like, but who is just buried behind guys here) and Garza for a legit 12-16 minute a night backup center who can defend things could change pretty drastically on the court.

Naz or Randle go down then Minott is in the rotation. If Rudy goes down… we are ****** and Minott is the rotation. The answer is to cut Dozier and sign the best available center who is cut or bought out but is under the 12 million threshold. Trading Minott before he proves himself is selling low and after is selling something we may well need.

[TimberKat]

They aren't trading Randle. I'd look for them to make a bench move for a backup defensive center. If they could move Minott (who I really like, but who is just buried behind guys here) and Garza for a legit 12-16 minute a night backup center who can defend things could change pretty drastically on the court.

Naz or Randle go down then Minott is in the rotation. If Rudy goes down… we are ****** and Minott is the rotation. The answer is to cut Dozier and sign the best available center who is cut or bought out but is under the 12 million threshold. Trading Minott before he proves himself is selling low and after is selling something we may well need.

Is Kessler still in UTA's future plan? That are playing Filipowski and Markkanen.

[winforlose]

They aren't trading Randle. I'd look for them to make a bench move for a backup defensive center. If they could move Minott (who I really like, but who is just buried behind guys here) and Garza for a legit 12-16 minute a night backup center who can defend things could change pretty drastically on the court.

Naz or Randle go down then Minott is in the rotation. If Rudy goes down… we are ****** and Minott is the rotation. The answer is to cut Dozier and sign the best available center who is cut or bought out but is under the 12 million threshold. Trading Minott before he proves himself is selling low and after is selling something we may well need.

Is Kessler still in UTA's future plan? That are playing Filipowski and Markkanen.

Markkanen is a 3/4 combo and Kessler has started 9 games for them averaging 26.4 MPG. That said he only played 9 so he might be hurt.

[minimus]

MIN IN: Walker Kessler, Bruce Brown
MIN OUT: Julius Randle, DET FRP

UTA IN: Boucher, 2026 FRP, DET FRP
UTA OUT: Kessler, salary filler

TOR IN: Julius Randle, salary filler
TOR OUT: Bruce Brown, Boucher, 2026 FRP

Gobert/Kessler/Garza
Reid/Minott/Miller
MCD/Brown/TJ/Ingles
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
DDV/Conley/Dillingham + Nix

[FrenchMinnyFan]

We have to find a solution to get a good back up C unless Randle and NAZ improve dramatically. Defense is awful when Rudy sit and if we need to put Rudy 30-32 min when it matters, we will have a ''tired leg'' Rudy at PO time. This is a priority for me. RD will get more min to rest Mike and he will improve.
And if Rudy get injured and miss 20-25 games, we may not be even in the play-in considering how West is packed.