Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[frankenwolf]

MIN IN: Julius Randle, DET FRP
MIN OUT: Walker Kessler, Bruce Brown

UTA IN: Boucher, 2026 FRP, DET FRP
UTA OUT: Kessler, salary filler

TOR IN: Julius Randle, salary filler
TOR OUT: Bruce Brown, Boucher, 2026 FRP

Gobert/Kessler/Garza
Reid/Minott/Miller
MCD/Brown/TJ/Ingles
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
DDV/Conley/Dillingham + Nix

Why would Toronto do this? Just curious, as it doesn't make sense to me.
Also, you need to switch the MIN in & Out

[minimus]

MIN IN: Julius Randle, DET FRP
MIN OUT: Walker Kessler, Bruce Brown

UTA IN: Boucher, 2026 FRP, DET FRP
UTA OUT: Kessler, salary filler

TOR IN: Julius Randle, salary filler
TOR OUT: Bruce Brown, Boucher, 2026 FRP

Gobert/Kessler/Garza
Reid/Minott/Miller
MCD/Brown/TJ/Ingles
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
DDV/Conley/Dillingham + Nix

Why would Toronto do this? Just curious, as it doesn't make sense to me.
Also, you need to switch the MIN in & Out

Brown contract is expiring, so TOR can invest in Randle, boost his value, resign him and trade later.

[minimus]

A big "regret" trade for ORL and MIN:

MIN IN: Cam Johnson, Z.Williams
MIN OUT: Julius Randle, DET FRP

BRO IN: KCP, WCJ, 2026 FRP, DET FRP
BRO OUT: Cam Johnson, Z.Williams
Why for BRO: get picks

ORL IN: Julius Randle
ORL OUT: KCP, WCJ, 2026 FRP
Why for ORL: get rid of KCP contract, create some depth behind of Banchero and Wagner

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Reid/Johnson/Minott/Miller
MCD/MInott/TJ/Ingles
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
DDV/Conley/Dillingham + Nix

Read on Twitter

[Klomp]

A big "regret" trade for ORL and MIN:

MIN IN: Cam Johnson, Z.Williams
MIN OUT: Julius Randle, DET FRP

BRO IN: KCP, WCJ, 2026 FRP, DET FRP
BRO OUT: Cam Johnson, Z.Williams
Why for BRO: get picks

ORL IN: Julius Randle
ORL OUT: KCP, WCJ, 2026 FRP
Why for ORL: get rid of KCP contract, create some depth behind of Banchero and Wagner

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Reid/Johnson/Minott/Miller
MCD/MInott/TJ/Ingles
Edwards/NAW/DDV + Clark
DDV/Conley/Dillingham + Nix

Read on Twitter

Only problem is it gets us even smaller

[shrink]

I thought this post was so good, I wanted to bring it over

Nickiel Alexander-Walker may be available. His great playoff defense wasn’t a fluke - he led the NBA last year in screen navigation. He’s playing even better this season, but the unexpected addition of Donte DiVincenzo may put him on the trade block.

NAW is on a $4.3 mil expiring and can’t be extended, so he is most valuable to a team that intends to use his Bird rights to keep him past this year. MIN is likely looking for a comparably-valued, rotation-level bench center. As a reminder, MIN is over the first and second apron, so they can’t aggregate salary and can only take back a player with a smaller contract.

I think that's an interesting set-up for a win-win trade, but it's hard to find a target becasue of the money, and you can't really trade with other teams with apron problems


From a quick skim of the basketball reference contracts list, C's who make less than NAW's $4.3M are:

Ke'lel Ware
Mark Williams
Dwight Powell
Dayron Sharpe
Cody Zeller
Yves Missi
Christian Wood
Walker Kessler
Xavier Tillman
James Wiseman

. . . and a bunch of min-salary guys, including:
Neemias Queeta
Jay Huff
Alex Len
Daniel Theis
Thomas Bryant
Mo Bamba
Deandre Jordan
Tristan Thompson
(and more -- there are a lot of C's on min salaries, usually for a reason)

Take out the ones that are too good, or not good enough, or too much potential, or on a 2nd apron team that makes the trade impossible, and I think a short list is something like
Dwight Powell (DAL)
Dayron Sharpe (BRK)
Cody Zeller (ATL)
Jay Huff (MEM)
Alex Len (SAC)

If this is a realistic short list, I think MIN will keep NAW!

This is a great post, and demonstrates the methodology that teams above the first apron need to make to find trade targets.

I agree with your final assessment, that there aren’t any good candidates because NAW’s salary is so low. In MIN, he’s been a great rotation player, and the team shouldn’t trade him for a non-rotation player, even at a position of need. Even if MIN loses NAW for nothing (outbid this summer), he has value to the Wolves simply because of his play in this year’s regular season and playoffs.

The only structure I would have any hope in is for MIN to add value, but even then, I don’t think they can reach the price. The idea would be a three-teamer, sending NAW off for rebuilding assets, plus maybe a simultaneous deal sending Minott into the team’s cap space. Still, NAW’s assets + Minott + DET (possible 1st) still doesn’t reach the value levels needed for someone like Kessler.

[Klomp]

I thought this post was so good, I wanted to bring it over

Nickiel Alexander-Walker may be available. His great playoff defense wasn’t a fluke - he led the NBA last year in screen navigation. He’s playing even better this season, but the unexpected addition of Donte DiVincenzo may put him on the trade block.

NAW is on a $4.3 mil expiring and can’t be extended, so he is most valuable to a team that intends to use his Bird rights to keep him past this year. MIN is likely looking for a comparably-valued, rotation-level bench center. As a reminder, MIN is over the first and second apron, so they can’t aggregate salary and can only take back a player with a smaller contract.

I think that's an interesting set-up for a win-win trade, but it's hard to find a target becasue of the money, and you can't really trade with other teams with apron problems


From a quick skim of the basketball reference contracts list, C's who make less than NAW's $4.3M are:

Ke'lel Ware
Mark Williams
Dwight Powell
Dayron Sharpe
Cody Zeller
Yves Missi
Christian Wood
Walker Kessler
Xavier Tillman
James Wiseman

. . . and a bunch of min-salary guys, including:
Neemias Queeta
Jay Huff
Alex Len
Daniel Theis
Thomas Bryant
Mo Bamba
Deandre Jordan
Tristan Thompson
(and more -- there are a lot of C's on min salaries, usually for a reason)

Take out the ones that are too good, or not good enough, or too much potential, or on a 2nd apron team that makes the trade impossible, and I think a short list is something like
Dwight Powell (DAL)
Dayron Sharpe (BRK)
Cody Zeller (ATL)
Jay Huff (MEM)
Alex Len (SAC)

If this is a realistic short list, I think MIN will keep NAW!

This is a great post, and demonstrates the methodology that teams above the first apron need to make to find trade targets.

I agree with your final assessment, that there aren’t any good candidates because NAW’s salary is so low. In MIN, he’s been a great rotation player, and the team shouldn’t trade him for a non-rotation player, even at a position of need. Even if MIN loses NAW for nothing (outbid this summer), he has value to the Wolves simply because of his play in this year’s regular season and playoffs.

The only structure I would have any hope in is for MIN to add value, but even then, I don’t think they can reach the price. The idea would be a three-teamer, sending NAW off for rebuilding assets, plus maybe a simultaneous deal sending Minott into the team’s cap space. Still, NAW’s assets + Minott + DET (possible 1st) still doesn’t reach the value levels needed for someone like Kessler.

In a 1-for-1 sense, absolutely. But I think part of the reason for including him is to extract additional value in a trade. Not necessarily in that second player, but to make the other team more willing to let go of their very good player. Look at the negotiations with the Knicks. Randle wasn't enough for the Knicks to get Towns. It wasn't until they added Donte that they decided to come to the table.

So going back to the Randle discussions, is there a package where a team would say no for just Randle, but might consider the deal more strongly if Alexander-Walker is in the trade? This is a reason I kind of like seeing Zeller on the list of matching salaries for Alexander-Walker, since I have thought highly of what Atlanta could offer even if they might not be all in on the idea for Randle yet.

I also still think about some of the frameworks I've brought up about Utah and Denver. Like, Alexander-Walker is exactly the type of player Denver would target at the deadline.

I will also bring up Toronto for a second as a different idea, because they have some pieces in the $10-20 million range that I think could be interesting fits here. Bruce Brown is an obvious Connelly connection, and I think Poeltl or Olynyk could be valued here as well. This isn't necessarily a NAW fit in Toronto beyond "Oh, Canada!", but it could also be an example where a third team comes in and sends Toronto a younger guy.

[Danimals]

The best NAW fit is in MN. Resign him.

[Klomp]

The best NAW fit is in MN. Resign him.

Sure, I get that. Just unsure about the feasibility.

[cmoss84]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

[winforlose]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

Let’s do the breakdown to properly answer. Removing all 3 from the current roster you have Mike/Ant/Jaden/?/Rudy as your starters. Your next line is DDV/?/?/?

8 man rotation knocked down to 5. But we have Minott, Miller, Dilly, TJ, and Clark all waiting in the wings. If Minott develops into a solid backup 4 by the playoffs (unlikely but not impossible,) now you don’t need both Randle and Naz. If Clark develops into a NAW replacement than you don’t need NAW. If Dilly develops into a solid backup PG then you don’t need NAW to fill that role. If Miller develops into a backup C, that limits NAZ and Randle minutes to PF, which in turn means you don’t need one of them. If TJ can give you some of what NAW gives you on offense while playing elite defense that adds variables based on guard play. The simple answer is we don’t know yet, nor do they. That is before we figure out salary and ownership issues and other teams interest in poaching one or more and how much they will pay. Also Randle’s option and whether he stays healthy this season.

TLDR, too soon to know and way too many variables.

[Danimals]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

For me, it’s clearly 6. In trade for Randle I’d want a 4/5 who can play with both Naz and Rudy, and any picks we can get. Unless someone develops internally, we will eventually need to trade for Ants costar. I have no belief that Randle is the player to pair with Ant long term.

[Klomp]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

It's a cop-out, but it's difficult to know for sure unless we see the potential trade returns.

I think Naz is highest though, just due to his position as a fan-favorite and longest tenured player. But he also is the one who cannot be extended prior to July 1, so I understand any hesitancy to wait.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

Will go for 6! Randle is way too expensive to resign for a guy who play only half court .

[TimberKat]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

Either sign all #1, #2, #3 or trade anyone outside of Ant for another proven all star.

[cmoss84]

Eason + Amen for Randle?
Then extend Naz and NAW?

[Slim Tubby]

As we slowly creep down that inevitable path of trading Randle for peanuts, it's going to start sinking in for some deniers that KAT was indeed more than worthy of being our second Max contract to build around to support Ant.

At only 28 years old when he was dealt, the KAT trade will long be remembered as what ultimately led to Ant asking for a trade IMO.

[frankenwolf]

As we slowly creep down that inevitable path of trading Randle for peanuts, it's going to start sinking in for some deniers that KAT was indeed more than worthy of being our second Max contract to build around to support Ant.

At only 28 years old when he was dealt, the KAT trade will long be remembered as what ultimately led to Ant asking for a trade IMO.

I agree with the first part, but I'm not sold on the second one. If the FO continues to show an attempt at becoming a contender and Ant feels the same way, don't think he leaves. He is pursuing greatness and, as evidenced by LBJ, getting a championship for the team that drafted you is a stride in the right direction.

I knew we would regret the KAT trade and while I tried to believe it would turn out ok, I just don't. This team was set up for success. I understand the need for a second "get your own" scorer, but I think that Jaden may have turned into that for us. I think Randle is crowding Jaden, pausing his growth. OTOH, I am not an NBA GM.

[shrink]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

Reid and NAW signed two year deals that can’t be extended, so the team will need to determine what to do with them this summer. Those would be new deals, but MIN can legally (though not financially) offer anything because of Bird rights.

So if I’m Connelly, I see what Randle looks like over the next four weeks, and offer him an extension based on that performance. I’m only willing to offer a deal that is tradeable, so he may simply decline, especially since he has a player option. This summer, I offer Naz and probably NAW tradeable new deals as well. Depending on how Randle has done and our economic situation, I actively look for trade offers over the summer, when teams have more financial flexibility. If no good deal arises, I roll into next season with all of them, and Naz and NAW are trade eligible in December, is one of the three players needs to be traded for economics. However, if the team is lookingnlike a strong contender, it’s possible the new owners agree to pay ridiculous lux taxes rather than break it up.

So my general answer is “sign everyone.” Anyone you can get on a tradable contract is a trade asset. You might be playing hot potato and be forced to trade somebody at the last moment for financial reasons, but in the meantime you win games, which raises the trade value of each player. The key is to not let a player walk for nothing.

[shrink]

If you are GM...who is your TOP priority of signing to extension(s)?:

1) Randle
2) Reid
3) NAW
4) Randle and Reid but no NAW and someone gets traded
5) Randle and NAW but no Reid
6) Reid and NAW while trading Randle

Let’s do the breakdown to properly answer. Removing all 3 from the current roster you have Mike/Ant/Jaden/?/Rudy as your starters. Your next line is DDV/?/?/?

8 man rotation knocked down to 5. But we have Minott, Miller, Dilly, TJ, and Clark all waiting in the wings. If Minott develops into a solid backup 4 by the playoffs (unlikely but not impossible,) now you don’t need both Randle and Naz. If Clark develops into a NAW replacement than you don’t need NAW. If Dilly develops into a solid backup PG then you don’t need NAW to fill that role. If Miller develops into a backup C, that limits NAZ and Randle minutes to PF, which in turn means you don’t need one of them. If TJ can give you some of what NAW gives you on offense while playing elite defense that adds variables based on guard play. The simple answer is we don’t know yet, nor do they. That is before we figure out salary and ownership issues and other teams interest in poaching one or more and how much they will pay. Also Randle’s option and whether he stays healthy this season.

TLDR, too soon to know and way too many variables.

Just wanted to say, I like the thought process here.

[Klomp]

I think 95% of the Randle extension talks comes down to his player option. If he opts in, I think an extension becomes likely. If he is leaning towards opting out of his last year, I think he becomes trade fodder at the deadline without an extension in hand.

That 2025-26 number is the most important number right now. $30.9 million is palatable. More is probably not.