ImageImageImageImageImage

Official RJ Barrett Thread

Moderators: Morris_Shatford, 7 Footer, DG88, niQ, Duffman100, tsherkin, Reeko, lebron stopper, HiJiNX

tsherkin
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 92,824
And1: 32,291
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1761 » by tsherkin » Wed Nov 20, 2024 10:15 pm

PushDaRock wrote:Yeah, I just think the flashes of brilliance mixed in with some truly horrid play where it looks like he has regressed back to his NY habits is skewing the numbers right now especially over the small sample size. RJ has been the most up and down player on the roster. If he's still at 51% TS after 50 games, I think it will look a lot more likely that his play here last season was more of a mirage.


It's worth repeating that there is a LARGE difference in how much passing support he is receiving. It's humongous. Without it, he has reverted back to the RJ he has always been. With it, he looked very different. We won't really know much of anything until we're able to provide that same level of passing support on his shot attempts.
User avatar
Psubs
RealGM
Posts: 20,853
And1: 11,912
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: Toronto

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1762 » by Psubs » Thu Nov 21, 2024 12:13 am

mdenny wrote:I wonder if Scottie Barnes' game has rubbed off on RJ?

Some of these plays and passes look EXACTLY like Scotty's style to me.

Aside from Dick's overall offensive game....RJ's passing has been the biggest development of the season so far imo. Not sure how it's gonna translate when his usage goes down. If he can find a way to continue emphasizing that part of his new style when his usage lowers....it could change the complexion of our team's potential. With our starting lineup in tact...he's gonna be covered by opposing team's weakest defender. So if that elevated play-making continues it could really open things up.


With no hierarchy, players are trying to step up. The Raptors are not selfish and willing to share to win.

IQ, Dick, RJ, Scottie, Poeltl can all put up 20ppg each game.
Image
User avatar
Scase
RealGM
Posts: 14,640
And1: 10,782
Joined: Feb 02, 2009
Location: Ottawa by way of MTL
       

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1763 » by Scase » Thu Nov 21, 2024 12:28 am

PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
lol what? Those massive spikes in difference between great and horrible that's far away from his expected average is the very definition of variance in this context. When you have extreme results on both ends of the spectrum, it can throw off the average especially over smaller sample sizes.

His "expected" average? Based on what, his career or some 30 game sample? Cause if we ignore that complete outlier, his 51% TS% is right in line with career averages. Which PS, is bad.


That's the whole point, we probably don't know exactly what his expected average should be right now because of so many outlier games both good and bad. We know he's probably not a 30 point scorer that's good for 65% TS, but he's also probably not a 15 ppg and 45% TS guy either.

My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.
Image
Props TZ!
tsherkin
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 92,824
And1: 32,291
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1764 » by tsherkin » Thu Nov 21, 2024 12:37 am

Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:His "expected" average? Based on what, his career or some 30 game sample? Cause if we ignore that complete outlier, his 51% TS% is right in line with career averages. Which PS, is bad.


That's the whole point, we probably don't know exactly what his expected average should be right now because of so many outlier games both good and bad. We know he's probably not a 30 point scorer that's good for 65% TS, but he's also probably not a 15 ppg and 45% TS guy either.

My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


I think what we've learned is that we still need to be a bit patient. We need to see if putting him back into the situation he had last year produces similar results (or at least better than his usual).
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1765 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 12:42 am

Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:His "expected" average? Based on what, his career or some 30 game sample? Cause if we ignore that complete outlier, his 51% TS% is right in line with career averages. Which PS, is bad.


That's the whole point, we probably don't know exactly what his expected average should be right now because of so many outlier games both good and bad. We know he's probably not a 30 point scorer that's good for 65% TS, but he's also probably not a 15 ppg and 45% TS guy either.

My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.
User avatar
Scase
RealGM
Posts: 14,640
And1: 10,782
Joined: Feb 02, 2009
Location: Ottawa by way of MTL
       

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1766 » by Scase » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:03 am

tsherkin wrote:
Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
That's the whole point, we probably don't know exactly what his expected average should be right now because of so many outlier games both good and bad. We know he's probably not a 30 point scorer that's good for 65% TS, but he's also probably not a 15 ppg and 45% TS guy either.

My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


I think what we've learned is that we still need to be a bit patient. We need to see if putting him back into the situation he had last year produces similar results (or at least better than his usual).

I'm not writing him off, but I think it's pretty fair to have a reasonable level of skepticism. His play hasn't been looking Knicks-esque just due to injuries/roster issues.

PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
That's the whole point, we probably don't know exactly what his expected average should be right now because of so many outlier games both good and bad. We know he's probably not a 30 point scorer that's good for 65% TS, but he's also probably not a 15 ppg and 45% TS guy either.

My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.


Someone posted a few days ago, multiple 20-30 game stretches in his time in NYC where he put up similar numbers. I don't think his game has improved, I think the system is more complimentary to him. You are welcome to hope his game improves, I just haven't seen enough to share the same opinion.
Image
Props TZ!
RoteSchroder
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,789
And1: 1,155
Joined: Jan 04, 2024

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1767 » by RoteSchroder » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:05 am

Tha Cynic wrote:It's hard to take this seriously when you're also a big time DeRozan hater. RJ has the same type of limitations as an overall player and in fact DeRozan is a better player than RJ Barrett. You can't be so extreme with your takes if you're going to show clear biases. For everything RJ does (and I think people like him for his age, attitude and personality, similar to DeRozan).

Overall as a basketball player though, he has consistently been a negative player. He still is. It's not such a wild take that people can see him traded in the future similar to how DeRozan was. You're not going to be a winning team with multiple poor defenders and negative players on the team.

RJ kind of fits that mold of player who can put up good stats on a bad team, but when it's time to win and you need a role player, a guy like OG-lite in Agbaji may make more sense beside star players.


RJ was fine for us last year in a reduced role.

1. He's terrible at pull-up shots or shots off the dribble. 2. He's ok at getting to the rim and finishing, depending on the level of defense. 3. He seems to be a capable playmaker. 4. His catch and shooting from 3 pt and mid-range are good.

Essentially, he's not good enough yet (and maybe never will be) to be a main offensive initiator. On pull up 3's he's 19%, pull-up mid-range ~24%..it's no wonder his efficiency sucks if we're putting him in a high usage on-ball situation. Knicks had him leading the bench combined with iso ball with Randle/Brunson. And this year, we're using him like he's a superstar.

Derozan is practically opposite of RJ. DD could create his own mid-range shots through foot work and pulling up off the dribble. DD's problem on offense was the lack of 3 point shooting/inability to spread the floor and his mid-range scoring (his bread and butter) had middling efficiency or poor efficiency against tighter defenses.

Examine the changes in RJ's shot diet as a reflection of his role:

1) Pull-up vs Catch and Shoot

Catch and Shoot 3's
Knicks: 1.5/4.4, 35.1%
2023 Raps: 1.5/3.7, 40.3%
2024 Raps: 1.7/4.3, 38.5%

Pull Up Shots
Knicks: 0.1/0.4, 20% on 3's (0.4/1.7, 24.4% overall)
2023 Raps: 0/0.1, 33.3% on 3's (0.3/0.6, 47.4% overall)
2024 Raps: 0.3/1.8, 19% on 3's (1.0/3.6, 27.9% overall)

2) Usage in the paint

Paint touches
Knicks: 0.6/0.9 66.7%
2023 Raps: 1.4/2.1 70%
2024 Raps: 0.8/1.3 60%

Efficiency/Volume on Drives
Knicks: 10.2 drives per game, 2.1/5.4, 38.6%
2023 Raps: 12.4 drives per game, 3.0/5.5, 55.4%
2024 Raps: 16.5 drives per game, 3.3/7.3, 44.3%

Passing on Drives
Knicks: 2.7 passes per 10.2 drives, 26.7 pass%, 0.6 assists (5.6%)
2023 Raps: 4.7 passes per 12.3 drives, 36.7 pass%, 1.1 assists (9%)
2024 Raps: 6.2 passes per 16.5 drives, 37.4 pass%, 2.2 assists (9%)

If you take away RJ's pull up shots, his percentages go to 45.1 FG% and 40.1% from 3.
tsherkin
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 92,824
And1: 32,291
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1768 » by tsherkin » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:10 am

PushDaRock wrote:
Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.


So, it's possible that he's both improved a little in some areas and is still basically the same level as a scorer. He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support. He blows donkeys at the FT line. He wasn't shooting outside of 10 feet and inside the arc basically at all with us. And he shot a career-best 73.1% inside the RA, which is about 3.7% better than his career-best so far. Also on much higher passing support. He was also getting to the RA on 43.1% of his FGA, and is a career 32.9% guy in that regard. 27.8% this year.

Barrett has been functionally incompetent outside of the RA and inside the arc his whole career. And mediocre/inconsistent from 3. So any sample showing a lot MORE than that is immediately suspect. But for that passing, there would be no reason to take those games seriously at all.

He's 24, but he's been in the league a while and hasn't really shown any meaningful markers of improvement for the parts of his game which have been a problem. What we have seen illustrated is some potential when he isn't creating everything for himself. And that's what we should be really laboring to explore.

What we shouldn't be doing is looking at less than half a season, roughly a 10th of his prior games, and inferring much from it.
RoteSchroder
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,789
And1: 1,155
Joined: Jan 04, 2024

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1769 » by RoteSchroder » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:23 am

tsherkin wrote:He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support.


It's not due to higher passing support imo. His catch and shoot 3's since his 2nd year: 41%, 36.8%, 32.3%, 37.2%, 38.5% (this year). Each year with over 4 attempts per game.

His pull up shooting percentages have been consistently atrocious. Last season on the Raps, he took 0.1 pull up 3's per game. This year he's taking 1.8 pull up 3's per game.
Tripod
RealGM
Posts: 13,013
And1: 12,397
Joined: Aug 13, 2021
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1770 » by Tripod » Thu Nov 21, 2024 1:35 am

mdenny wrote:I wonder if Scottie Barnes' game has rubbed off on RJ?

Some of these plays and passes look EXACTLY like Scotty's style to me.

Aside from Dick's overall offensive game....RJ's passing has been the biggest development of the season so far imo. Not sure how it's gonna translate when his usage goes down. If he can find a way to continue emphasizing that part of his new style when his usage lowers....it could change the complexion of our team's potential. With our starting lineup in tact...he's gonna be covered by opposing team's weakest defender. So if that elevated play-making continues it could really open things up.

I guess I always thought of him like a Tobias Harris sort of guy. But the passing changes his whole archetype.

A looking to pass RJ is much more useful than a head down only looking to score RJ.

He draws lots of attention when driving because he is a good finisher so that opens things up for others. And now with Dick, IQ, Ochai as shooters we can make team's pay a bit.

I just hope we see the same fast pace, lots of passing game that we have seen lots so far, when everyone gets back.
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1771 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:07 am

Scase wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Scase wrote:My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


I think what we've learned is that we still need to be a bit patient. We need to see if putting him back into the situation he had last year produces similar results (or at least better than his usual).

I'm not writing him off, but I think it's pretty fair to have a reasonable level of skepticism. His play hasn't been looking Knicks-esque just due to injuries/roster issues.

PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:My friend, we know exactly what his expected average is, we have over 300 games of evidence. I agree he is neither a 65% or 45% TS% player, he is however a substantially below league average player (efficiency wise), and until he can string together a full season of much improved play, it's still just a hot streak of 30 games.

The roster overall has definitely not helped him this year, but the roster isn't so bad he needs to be jacking up 27 shots to put up 25 points either.


Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.


Someone posted a few days ago, multiple 20-30 game stretches in his time in NYC where he put up similar numbers. I don't think his game has improved, I think the system is more complimentary to him. You are welcome to hope his game improves, I just haven't seen enough to share the same opinion.


Yeah, that's just not true at all. He's never shot the ball anywhere close to the 55% he did in Toronto last year over a 30 game stretch with New York. He's never even shot better than 50% for a month ever before while he was in New York.
User avatar
Scase
RealGM
Posts: 14,640
And1: 10,782
Joined: Feb 02, 2009
Location: Ottawa by way of MTL
       

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1772 » by Scase » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:14 am

PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
I think what we've learned is that we still need to be a bit patient. We need to see if putting him back into the situation he had last year produces similar results (or at least better than his usual).

I'm not writing him off, but I think it's pretty fair to have a reasonable level of skepticism. His play hasn't been looking Knicks-esque just due to injuries/roster issues.

PushDaRock wrote:
Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.


Someone posted a few days ago, multiple 20-30 game stretches in his time in NYC where he put up similar numbers. I don't think his game has improved, I think the system is more complimentary to him. You are welcome to hope his game improves, I just haven't seen enough to share the same opinion.


Yeah, that's just not true at all. He's never shot the ball anywhere close to the 55% he did in Toronto last year over a 30 game stretch with New York. He's never even shot better than 50% for a month ever before while he was in New York.

I didn't go through the numbers they posted with a fine toothed comb, so you might be right. But even if you are, that still proves nothing other than a 30 game outlier vs 300+ games of data.

Also it still does nothing to show that HE was the improvement, and not the system. Unless you think he magically got better for no reason. Again, there is nothing at all to point to improvement being anything HE did, vs how he's being utilized. Which the current stretch of games kinda proves, change up the system or roster, and he plays like trash.

If you think that is an admirable trait for a player, be my guest, but I don't.
Image
Props TZ!
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1773 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:14 am

tsherkin wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
Sure, the 300 games sample size would be his expected average if you think the 30 game stretch was a fluke and don't think he improved at all since coming to Toronto. Most of us think he has at least gotten a bit better.


So, it's possible that he's both improved a little in some areas and is still basically the same level as a scorer. He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support. He blows donkeys at the FT line. He wasn't shooting outside of 10 feet and inside the arc basically at all with us. And he shot a career-best 73.1% inside the RA, which is about 3.7% better than his career-best so far. Also on much higher passing support. He was also getting to the RA on 43.1% of his FGA, and is a career 32.9% guy in that regard. 27.8% this year.

Barrett has been functionally incompetent outside of the RA and inside the arc his whole career. And mediocre/inconsistent from 3. So any sample showing a lot MORE than that is immediately suspect. But for that passing, there would be no reason to take those games seriously at all.

He's 24, but he's been in the league a while and hasn't really shown any meaningful markers of improvement for the parts of his game which have been a problem. What we have seen illustrated is some potential when he isn't creating everything for himself. And that's what we should be really laboring to explore.

What we shouldn't be doing is looking at less than half a season, roughly a 10th of his prior games, and inferring much from it.


If he's playing more to his strengths, that's still an improvement. If you're implementing what you do well more in games, you are a more effective player and thus improved as a player as well.

That 32 game sample size in Toronto had him shooting 55% from the field, that's drastically better than anything he's ever shown in his career. We don't have to go saying that's the new norm but when the improvement is that big o fa difference, there's a decent chance there is more to it than just a hot streak IMO.
User avatar
Scase
RealGM
Posts: 14,640
And1: 10,782
Joined: Feb 02, 2009
Location: Ottawa by way of MTL
       

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1774 » by Scase » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:18 am

RoteSchroder wrote:
tsherkin wrote:He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support.


It's not due to higher passing support imo. His catch and shoot 3's since his 2nd year: 41%, 36.8%, 32.3%, 37.2%, 38.5% (this year). Each year with over 4 attempts per game.

His pull up shooting percentages have been consistently atrocious. Last season on the Raps, he took 0.1 pull up 3's per game. This year he's taking 1.8 pull up 3's per game.

98% of all his made 3's last year with us were assisted. 76% this season, higher passing support absolutely is a major impact on his efficiency.

His career of % of made 3's that were assisted on is 95%, you think a 20% drop doesn't have an impact? It's a combo of less passing support and much worse shot quality. They kinda go hand in hand.
Image
Props TZ!
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1775 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:28 am

Scase wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:
Scase wrote:I'm not writing him off, but I think it's pretty fair to have a reasonable level of skepticism. His play hasn't been looking Knicks-esque just due to injuries/roster issues.



Someone posted a few days ago, multiple 20-30 game stretches in his time in NYC where he put up similar numbers. I don't think his game has improved, I think the system is more complimentary to him. You are welcome to hope his game improves, I just haven't seen enough to share the same opinion.


Yeah, that's just not true at all. He's never shot the ball anywhere close to the 55% he did in Toronto last year over a 30 game stretch with New York. He's never even shot better than 50% for a month ever before while he was in New York.

I didn't go through the numbers they posted with a fine toothed comb, so you might be right. But even if you are, that still proves nothing other than a 30 game outlier vs 300+ games of data.

Also it still does nothing to show that HE was the improvement, and not the system. Unless you think he magically got better for no reason. Again, there is nothing at all to point to improvement being anything HE did, vs how he's being utilized. Which the current stretch of games kinda proves, change up the system or roster, and he plays like trash.

If you think that is an admirable trait for a player, be my guest, but I don't.


If you are utilized in a way that fits your strengths well and you are productive and efficient as a result, you have improved as a player. I don't get why all the credit would go to the system rather than the player in this instance.
tsherkin
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 92,824
And1: 32,291
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1776 » by tsherkin » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:31 am

RoteSchroder wrote:
tsherkin wrote:He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support.


It's not due to higher passing support imo. His catch and shoot 3's since his 2nd year: 41%, 36.8%, 32.3%, 37.2%, 38.5% (this year). Each year with over 4 attempts per game.

His pull up shooting percentages have been consistently atrocious. Last season on the Raps, he took 0.1 pull up 3's per game. This year he's taking 1.8 pull up 3's per game.


I went over this already. The passing support difference in his 32 games with us was significant compared to any other period in his career. Have a look.

PushDaRock wrote:If he's playing more to his strengths, that's still an improvement. If you're implementing what you do well more in games, you are a more effective player and thus improved as a player as well.


Sure. But it hasn't really affected his scoring; he's as bad as ever on the shot diet he's producing for us so far this season and he isn't showing a ton of variety in how he's approaching things. What we saw that was an improvement in that regard happened last year on different shots which he cannot manage with the current roster circumstance. We are seeing some better passing, though.

That 32 game sample size in Toronto had him shooting 55% from the field, that's drastically better than anything he's ever shown in his career. We don't have to go saying that's the new norm but when the improvement is that big o fa difference, there's a decent chance there is more to it than just a hot streak IMO.


No, that's quite wrong. "When the improvement is that big of a difference, there's a decent change there is more to it than just a hot streak" is a logical fallacy. That isn't how any of that works.

It may be true, but there's no necessity to that being the case. We can see some passing support stuff that looks a lot better, but that may not be anything but a coincidence. We shall see. I hope that we can get a look at Barrett with more support and he goes back to being more efficient. Toronto will only benefit from that, of course.
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1777 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 2:59 am

tsherkin wrote:
RoteSchroder wrote:
tsherkin wrote:He shot a reasonably uncharacteristic (but not unprecedented) percentage from 3 last year... on much higher passing support.


It's not due to higher passing support imo. His catch and shoot 3's since his 2nd year: 41%, 36.8%, 32.3%, 37.2%, 38.5% (this year). Each year with over 4 attempts per game.

His pull up shooting percentages have been consistently atrocious. Last season on the Raps, he took 0.1 pull up 3's per game. This year he's taking 1.8 pull up 3's per game.


I went over this already. The passing support difference in his 32 games with us was significant compared to any other period in his career. Have a look.

PushDaRock wrote:If he's playing more to his strengths, that's still an improvement. If you're implementing what you do well more in games, you are a more effective player and thus improved as a player as well.


Sure. But it hasn't really affected his scoring; he's as bad as ever on the shot diet he's producing for us so far this season and he isn't showing a ton of variety in how he's approaching things. What we saw that was an improvement in that regard happened last year on different shots which he cannot manage with the current roster circumstance. We are seeing some better passing, though.

That 32 game sample size in Toronto had him shooting 55% from the field, that's drastically better than anything he's ever shown in his career. We don't have to go saying that's the new norm but when the improvement is that big o fa difference, there's a decent chance there is more to it than just a hot streak IMO.


No, that's quite wrong. "When the improvement is that big of a difference, there's a decent change there is more to it than just a hot streak" is a logical fallacy. That isn't how any of that works.

It may be true, but there's no necessity to that being the case. We can see some passing support stuff that looks a lot better, but that may not be anything but a coincidence. We shall see. I hope that we can get a look at Barrett with more support and he goes back to being more efficient. Toronto will only benefit from that, of course.


I don't think that's a logical fallacy, it's just being objective. He scored more than he ever has and he did it more efficiently than he ever has in that 32 game sample size last season with us. If he was horrible and put up a sub 40% TS instead, would you think he was the same player as in New York or got even worse?

What's the threshold for it to not be considered a hot streak? A 32 game sample size isn't the end all and be all but it starts getting closer to a point where it's fairly accurate and I would say something around 50 games is probably pretty close to having numbers be normalized.
tsherkin
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 92,824
And1: 32,291
Joined: Oct 14, 2003
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1778 » by tsherkin » Thu Nov 21, 2024 3:16 am

PushDaRock wrote:I don't think that's a logical fallacy, it's just being objective.


There is quite literally nothing objective about that.

He scored more than he ever has and he did it more efficiently than he ever has in that 32 game sample size last season with us. If he was horrible and put up a sub 40% TS instead, would you think he was the same player as in New York or got even worse?


The same. It's a 32-game sample. Lots of weird crap happens over samples that small, particularly in new situations and if a jumper starts falling for a bit.

Again, he didn't suddenly figure out how to shoot from more than 10 feet. He got to the rim more than ever before and shot a way higher percentage than usual. And his 3 was falling.

There was passing support which hasn't traditionally been there, so that occludes the issue, but there wasn't any showcase of new skill or much change in his general approach. Like, there wasn't much of him improving. There were contextual differences, like better spacing and less overall usage with more passing support. But not actual changes in his skillset. And he performed at a level so far above his previous best as to suggest that it wasn't sustainable at that specific level.

Like, there isn't really a sound pathway to trying to believe that he's capable of shooting 60-61% inside the arc on a season. Or that he's likely to take 43%+ of his shots inside the RA, even with improved passing support. That's like, Lebron in his early 30s. Shaq was at 48.1% in LA. Kobe did that in no season ever. Neither did Kawhi. James Harden, who is an extreme rim-or-3 player, never came even close. Neither has Luka or Tatum.

So here we have this wild outlier, and you're treating it like it's some "HEY HOW YA DOIN" indication of improvement, you know? And that's not legit at all. There are lots of questions and conditions and limitations to what we can take from what we saw out of Barrett last year.
GreatWhiteStiff
RealGM
Posts: 15,265
And1: 12,684
Joined: Oct 17, 2011
Location: Overusing finna
 

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1779 » by GreatWhiteStiff » Thu Nov 21, 2024 3:26 am

I'm sorry for ever doubting the Lord of TS%.
Image

Let's playin for 9th!

"OG puts the clamps on point guards like Trae Young." -DelAbbot
PushDaRock
RealGM
Posts: 14,519
And1: 10,861
Joined: Jun 22, 2011

Re: Official RJ Barrett Thread 

Post#1780 » by PushDaRock » Thu Nov 21, 2024 3:31 am

tsherkin wrote:
PushDaRock wrote:I don't think that's a logical fallacy, it's just being objective.


There is quite literally nothing objective about that.

He scored more than he ever has and he did it more efficiently than he ever has in that 32 game sample size last season with us. If he was horrible and put up a sub 40% TS instead, would you think he was the same player as in New York or got even worse?


The same. It's a 32-game sample. Lots of weird crap happens over samples that small, particularly in new situations and if a jumper starts falling for a bit.

Again, he didn't suddenly figure out how to shoot from more than 10 feet. He got to the rim more than ever before and shot a way higher percentage than usual. And his 3 was falling.

There was passing support which hasn't traditionally been there, so that occludes the issue, but there wasn't any showcase of new skill or much change in his general approach. Like, there wasn't much of him improving. There were contextual differences, like better spacing and less overall usage with more passing support. But not actual changes in his skillset. And he performed at a level so far above his previous best as to suggest that it wasn't sustainable at that specific level.

Like, there isn't really a sound pathway to trying to believe that he's capable of shooting 60-61% inside the arc on a season. Or that he's likely to take 43%+ of his shots inside the RA, even with improved passing support. That's like, Lebron in his early 30s. Shaq was at 48.1% in LA. Kobe did that in no season ever. Neither did Kawhi. James Harden, who is an extreme rim-or-3 player, never came even close. Neither has Luka or Tatum.

So here we have this wild outlier, and you're treating it like it's some "HEY HOW YA DOIN" indication of improvement, you know? And that's not legit at all. There are lots of questions and conditions and limitations to what we can take from what we saw out of Barrett last year.


Yeah, I think that's not in any way actual reality. If RJ had a 40% TS stretch over 32 games, we would be thinking he absolutely stinks and how to dump his toxic contract, not thinking he's just the same player as in New York on a rough stretch.

No, I'm treating it as maybe this player isn't as bad as I thought he was. He doesn't need to sustain what he did last year to still exceed what he did as a Knick. Even this year with his efficiency down, his scoring is up and passing drastically improved, so he's still improved as a player from his Knick days.

Return to Toronto Raptors