2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread

[HotRocks34]

LeBron was not robbed of the MVP in 2011. Jokic was robbed of the MVP in 2023 and should be working on his 5th straight MVP.

Derrick Rose should not have won the MVP in 2011. Dwight Howard (2nd) should have won it. He was the DPOY that season and led a team without any other All Stars to 52 wins. Rose had a great year and I understand why he won it but Howard is the better player.

The reason why LeBron didn't win MVP in 2011 was two-fold. First, he went to a superteam with two other All Stars. Second, it wasn't his team that year, it was still Wade's. That's why they lost The Finals, because there was no clear pecking order and LeBron was still deferring to Wade at times. That changed the following season and they won the title. But in 2011, Wade and LeBron were co-Alphas. Rose and Howard were not in similar situations. And while LeBron still had the best advanced numbers in the league, they dropped considerably from the prior year and were not substantially better than those of Wade -- +1.7 PER; +.026 WS48; +1.5 BPM. James had come to Wade's team and it was still Wade's team in some respects like Durant going to Curry's team. There was a bigger gap in advanced stats between Durant and Curry in year 1 of their team up (title) than in year one of Wade and LeBron but the perception for many was that it was still Curry's squad. Curry was 6th in MVP voting that year and Durant 9th.

Jokic only lost the 2023 MVP because of Kendrick Perkins.

When the NBA MVP straw poll for MVP was done in Feb 2023, Jokic was #1, Giannis was #2 and Embiid was #3. Jokic was far ahead of the other two, as he should have been. Denver was in first place in the West, Milwaukee was in 2nd in the East and Philly was in 3rd in the East.

Perkins made his comments at the beginning of March 2023, about two weeks after the straw poll.

At the end of the year Denver was in first in the West, Milwaukee was first in the East and Philly remained 3rd in the East.

Jokic went from 77 first place votes in the February straw poll and Embiid 6 to an MVP vote with 73 Embiid first place votes to 15 for Jokic.

Between the Feb straw poll and the end of the season, Denver went 12-11, Milwaukee went 17-7 and Philly was 16-9. Denver lost at Philly before the Feb straw poll and Denver beat Philly in Colorado, without Embiid (wink wink), after the Feb straw poll.

There was no objective reason for the movement from the Feb straw poll to the final MVP voting. The movement came because of Perkins and because of the similarly-biased (and false) "historical precedent" argument that started as "no player has won 3 MVPs without winning a ring" that moved to either "not three straight" or "without making The Finals" once people realized that LeBron was voted his third MVP in 2012 before he had a ring as was Moses Malone in 1983.

Jokic was in his third straight season of leading the league in PER, WS48, and BPM. He nearly averaged a triple double.

Jokic played more games that year than Embiid (69 to 66), had more individual wins (48 to 43), a better individual winning percentage (.696 to .652) and had more Win Shares (14.9 to 12.3). Simply put, Jokic won more that regular season than Embiid and was more important to his team winning than was Embiid. Denver was 5-8 when Jokic was out in the regular season and Philly was 11-5 without Embiid during the regular season and won 2 road playoff games without him in the postseason.

Jokic deserved the MVP trophy over Embiid in 2023. The case is clear and Jokic being robbed in the manner that he was is one of the most shameful moments in the history of the league that will only look worse over time. A total disaster.

The saving graces, of course, were Jokic's scorched-earth revenge campaign in that postseason that saw him win the ring and make history while doing so (first player ever to lead a playoffs in Total PTS, REB, AST and WS), Embiid earning infamy as the only MVP in NBA history to never make a conference final and Perkins being called out by the universe and being forever humiliated after what Jokic did in that postseason.

Kareem won his 4th MVP in 1976 on a 40-42 team that missed the playoffs. He had only one ring at that time. But he was still the best player in the game and wasn't getting a ton of help beyond Gail Goodrich, so I understand why he won it.

Jokic is in good shape.

[brackdan70]

I would argue moving Tatum as the lead MVP candidate. This loss put Denver slightly closer to .500.

Tatum shot 0-10 on 3 tonight and he was an absolute non factor. His team is so stacked he doesn’t need to perform high every night to win games. It’s the biggest thing hurting his mvp case…these random off nights.

He had a rough game shooting but was not a non factor. 9 boards, 8 assists, 2 steals and was a team high +20. To the big reason he is an MVP level player is his ability to affect the game in every aspect. That said SGA is probably ahead of him at this point.

[DowJones]

How could anyone put Tatum ahead of Jokić? If you want to overweight team success, then give it to Donovan Mitchell. Otherwise, Jokić is clearly the MVP.

[Packbuckman]

In any case, i really think guys like Tatum/Mitchell/Giannis will face an uphill battle when it comes to MVP based on the sad state of the East right now. For instance, Milwaukee right now is 6th in the east but I the west they would be 14th.

So many poor teams in the east while the west is a bloodbath.

Ya but it’s really early and the difference you’re talking about for the bucks from 6th in East to 14th west is a few wins nuggets are 6th west at 8-6

[Mavrelous]

Well, i can't speak to how voters will vote only to how imo - they SHOULD vote

4 in 5 is irrelevant

Jokic missing these 3 games was huge otherwise after 20 games there would have been a consensus.

Jokic started the season basically with the best opening stretch ever and after missing 3 games, picked up right where he left off. The Nuggets are who they are, they aren't going to finish 2nd and no voter in his right mind would vote for Tatum over this version of Jokic, even if the C's have 12 more wins

Jokic was a +4 in the loss tonight as usual, voters shouldn't punish him for Murray going 4-16 from the field, that's propesrtrous

Jokic is having what is quite possibly the best statistical season ever thus far, an ultra efficient 30 pts triple double, with impact stats to boot. Bro is really leading the leauge in Rebounds, Assists and 3p% (lol) from the Center position, no1 cares if they're a 3rd or a 5th or a 6th seed

Voters understand very well that if Jokic had say..JB, Jrue and White - that team would win 70 games and that Tatum, Murray and MPJ would be a play-in team in the West, they're not morons..

Voter fatigue does indeed set the bar higher for him but so far - he's elevated his game over that bar

Everything is relevant, this is a narrative award, and it can't be isolated into one argument, Embiid won fairly in 23, but anyone voting for him again before he does a thing in the PO is out of his mind, despite it being regular season award.
Steph Curry had an insane season in 2021, led the league in EPM and scoring, finished 8th seed.
Luka last year finished with 34/9/10 and had 51 wins despite injury riddled season for his team.
Both were penalized by their record to finish the season.
LeBron in 2011 had the best statistical season and had 2nd seed, no one voted for him because the bar is very high when you break the competition and form a super team.

There is no denying Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league, but MVP award has its prestige and the more you win it, the harder it should be to win again, there is not rule book people go by to determine who the MVP should be, it's subjective and narrative driven.
That's my opinion at least, I will say that with each passing day, it's inching more and more towards certainty with the way he plays, but for those who don't remember, last year also Jokic started very strong, and later lost his lead and almost lost the award.

You keep bringing up Lebron James in 2011 but do you not realize he was playing with 2 all star teammates? Wade was 2nd all nba team, 7th in mvp voting, and had similar numbers to James that year. What other mvp candidate can say they played with that much talent?

Pre-KD Steph? Klay was 3rd team all NBA and Draymond was 2nd team all NBA, DPOY runner up and 1st team all defense, the Heat were the big 3 and a bunch of minimums, Warriors had actual depth after these 3...

[Wolfgang630]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=XO0PgrZjS-uU8MmGKL8grQ

Jokic is
4th in PPG
1st in RPG
1st in APG
1st in 3 point percentage per game!

[MavsDirk41]

Everything is relevant, this is a narrative award, and it can't be isolated into one argument, Embiid won fairly in 23, but anyone voting for him again before he does a thing in the PO is out of his mind, despite it being regular season award.
Steph Curry had an insane season in 2021, led the league in EPM and scoring, finished 8th seed.
Luka last year finished with 34/9/10 and had 51 wins despite injury riddled season for his team.
Both were penalized by their record to finish the season.
LeBron in 2011 had the best statistical season and had 2nd seed, no one voted for him because the bar is very high when you break the competition and form a super team.

There is no denying Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league, but MVP award has its prestige and the more you win it, the harder it should be to win again, there is not rule book people go by to determine who the MVP should be, it's subjective and narrative driven.
That's my opinion at least, I will say that with each passing day, it's inching more and more towards certainty with the way he plays, but for those who don't remember, last year also Jokic started very strong, and later lost his lead and almost lost the award.

You keep bringing up Lebron James in 2011 but do you not realize he was playing with 2 all star teammates? Wade was 2nd all nba team, 7th in mvp voting, and had similar numbers to James that year. What other mvp candidate can say they played with that much talent?

Pre-KD Steph? Klay was 3rd team all NBA and Draymond was 2nd team all NBA, DPOY runner up and 1st team all defense, the Heat were the big 3 and a bunch of minimums, Warriors had actual depth after these 3...

GS was clearly Curry’s team. James went to Wades team and that first year they played together, their impact and numbers were very similar.

GS drafted Curry, Thompson, and Green. They did it the right way. James, Wade, and Bosh teamed up to create a superteam. Clear difference between the two.

[Mavrelous]

You keep bringing up Lebron James in 2011 but do you not realize he was playing with 2 all star teammates? Wade was 2nd all nba team, 7th in mvp voting, and had similar numbers to James that year. What other mvp candidate can say they played with that much talent?

Pre-KD Steph? Klay was 3rd team all NBA and Draymond was 2nd team all NBA, DPOY runner up and 1st team all defense, the Heat were the big 3 and a bunch of minimums, Warriors had actual depth after these 3...

GS was clearly Curry’s team. James went to Wades team and that first year they played together, their impact and numbers were very similar.

GS drafted Curry, Thompson, and Green. They did it the right way. James, Wade, and Bosh teamed up to create a superteam. Clear difference between the two.

Yeah, you keep moving the goal posts, we've strayed very far from the original topic.

[Statlanta]

As I said in the 76ers thread, it is hilarious that NBA professional analysts and fans believe with confidence that Giannis is in the conversation when his team was literally at the bottom of the standings a week or so ago.

[MavsDirk41]

Pre-KD Steph? Klay was 3rd team all NBA and Draymond was 2nd team all NBA, DPOY runner up and 1st team all defense, the Heat were the big 3 and a bunch of minimums, Warriors had actual depth after these 3...

GS was clearly Curry’s team. James went to Wades team and that first year they played together, their impact and numbers were very similar.

GS drafted Curry, Thompson, and Green. They did it the right way. James, Wade, and Bosh teamed up to create a superteam. Clear difference between the two.

Yeah, you keep moving the goal posts, we've strayed very far from the original topic.

Not moving the goal posts, i just dont think you like hearing about the way it is/was.

Getting back to the original topic of this thread, its Jokic by a mile. Nobody is carrying their team more than this guy and its not even close.

[Exp0sed]

As I said in the 76ers thread, it is hilarious that NBA professional analysts and fans believe with confidence that Giannis is in the conversation when his team was literally at the bottom of the standings a week or so ago.

he's putting up historic numbers, his team has played without key players (Middelton is a max player in street clothes) and Dame looks semi-washed. they also started the season with the toughest schedule (playing the Cavs and C's twice each in the first 10 games) and have the worst coach in the league

I think most folks can extrapolate and weigh in those factors. sure he won't be in the convo if the Bucks finish last but everyone knows they'll be a top 4 seed in the East unless Giannis misses significant time, so he's def in the convo

would Giannis be in the convo if he had JB+White+Jrue and the best bench in the league? how many games does that team win?

[JayMKE]

As I said in the 76ers thread, it is hilarious that NBA professional analysts and fans believe with confidence that Giannis is in the conversation when his team was literally at the bottom of the standings a week or so ago.

And now they’re 2.5 out of the 3rd seed, shouldn’t make hot takes ~15 games into the season. Jokic’s team has 8 win, Bucks have 7.

[scrabbarista]

People talking about voter fatigue and Jokic having only one championship so they can’t give him his fourth well Lebrón won his fourth MVP with only one title at the time.

That was prime LeBron, GOAT level player, and he was carrying terrible rosters to 60+ wins, Jokic isn't on this level.

It should've been his 5th MVP BTW, he deserved it in 2011 also, prime LeBron was better than Jokic, look back at the Cavs squad he got 66 wins with.

Just heard on the Hoop Collective that the Nuggets offense is 31 pp100 better with Jokic on the court. The best number for James during his five-year MVP stretch occurred in Cleveland and was 15 pp100. Kind of puts the words "carrying" and "terrible" into perspective.

[mademan]

If Nuggets get a top 4 seed, its Jokic and not really close. Im not sure who else you would give it to over him

West is tough tho and i dont really see Nuggets finishing top 4. So probably Shai?

[Wolfgang630]

They screwed up and screwed Wilt when he averaged 50 ppg and gave it to Bill Russell because of “team win”. Wow dude got to play with like 10 Hall of Famers. Don’t make that same mistake again.

[WarriorGM]

They screwed up and screwed Wilt when he averaged 50 ppg and gave it to Bill Russell because of “team win”. Wow dude got to play with like 10 Hall of Famers. Don’t make that same mistake again.

That was in 1962. Wilt would go on to dominate the league by winning the most championships in his era and make all those who didn't vote for him regret their decision. Except well... uh, er, no he didn't.

Bill Russell meanwhile kept winning even with a new set of teammates and even against a superteam led by Wilt and the league's first FMVP arrayed against him.

[Packbuckman]

They screwed up and screwed Wilt when he averaged 50 ppg and gave it to Bill Russell because of “team win”. Wow dude got to play with like 10 Hall of Famers. Don’t make that same mistake again.

That was in 1962. Wilt would go on to dominate the league by winning the most championships in his era and make all those who didn't vote for him regret their decision. Except well... uh, er, no he didn't.

Bill Russell meanwhile kept winning even with a new set of teammates and even against a superteam led by Wilt and the league's first FMVP arrayed against him.

Who was their coach? Some unknown guy Red something or other. If you say you think he don’t matters at all in all those championships for Boston besides the players besides Russell your not being honest. Packers were winning in same era In football sure they had players but they are not winning all those championships with out Vince

[CodeBreaker]

If they rob Jokic once again...

[CodeBreaker]

It’s pretty close really dame vs Murray both streaky shooters now dame finally realizing that Giannis is best player and to pass the ball. Malone vs Doc who ya got?

Dame is at least shooting better. Their defense are close to the same right now. Let just put it this way if you swapped Murray and Dame. The Nuggets would be in first no question

Please give me Dame. If Murray and Dame are close then swap them. Bucks can take Murray.

Current Dame is still on another tier over Murray. It's not close.

[scrabbarista]

If Nuggets get a top 4 seed, its Jokic and not really close. Im not sure who else you would give it to over him

West is tough tho and i dont really see Nuggets finishing top 4. So probably Shai?

I'd say Tatum as of today. For Jokic, it'll be games played and possibly team wins. He's playing so well that I wouldn't even say they have to be top four. But as of exactly this morning, Tatum is a good choice, imo.