Charts: Raptors in dangerous territory

___Rand___ · Post #2 » by **___Rand___** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 3:58 pm

Chart courtesy of https://x.com/kirkgoldsberry

The good news, Raptors are improving.

The bad news: Raptors are in the dangerous territory of being a middling team, again. Once we get everyone back, yes we'll be SOLIDLY mediocre. We won't be the worst, nor will we be the best. We can eek into the playoff, but we won't get anywhere.

MessiahUjiri · Post #3 » by **MessiahUjiri** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:01 pm

That’s an awesome chart. It shows that we’re actually closer to a play-in team, which we don’t want to be.

The biggest pop out to me here are the warriors and the Lakers. The Warriors are not as good as their inflated record currently shows. And the Lakers are sneaky championship contenders, if they can just make one more trade.

NotMyKawhi · Post #4 » by **NotMyKawhi** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:06 pm

I actually think losing in the playin is best for the team. Gets the young guys experience while still having a chance at the lottery.

2 teams w playin level win totals won the lottery last year. It's a crap shot and MU is a great drafter. I'm good with Will Riley and play off experience.

HangTime · Post #5 » by **HangTime** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:54 pm

With everyone healthy, I'd take a play-in spot. This group is fun to watch.

I think the Tank was a mirage, only a narrative that our terrible media was pushing.

Rebuilding and Developing doesn't equal tanking.

If the draft is as deep as everyone thinks it is, we might find someone better later and on a cheaper rookie deal.

Ell Curry · Post #6 » by **Ell Curry** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:58 pm

Easy to see us finishing about 8th, which is a little too low for my liking in what right now looks like a draft with a very exciting top 6. 12 teams that are bad, assume Philly, Phoenix and Indiana get better and that leaves 9 teams tanking.

Maybe 1 of Atlanta or Charlotte can edge us out, someone will get randomly hot, and the Pelicans are a medical mystery (Ingram healthy, then their other 5 main guys have played a total of 20 games). And maybe one team that looks okay (Pistons, Spurs) will pivot to tank or a West team being carried by 2-3 guys will go down to injury issues (Clippers, Lakers, Kings hard to predict) and that conference's strength.

So, yeah, in the 7-8 range.

___Rand___ · Post #7 » by **___Rand___** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:12 pm

NotMyKawhi wrote:I actually think losing in the playin is best for the team. Gets the young guys experience while still having a chance at the lottery.

2 teams w playin level win totals won the lottery last year. It's a crap shot and MU is a great drafter. I'm good with Will Riley and play off experience.

I think what you're thinking is good for next year, not this year given the quality in the top half. IF we're going to be picking, get a higher pick. Next year we start shooting for playoffs with the eye towards giving kids the playoff experience.

Nebuchadnezzar · Post #8 » by **Nebuchadnezzar** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:14 pm

More using of advanced data to make entirely non-evidence based claims about how to acquire talent.....moving on.

artsncrafts · Post #9 » by **artsncrafts** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:28 pm

NotMyKawhi wrote:I actually think losing in the playin is best for the team. Gets the young guys experience while still having a chance at the lottery.

2 teams w playin level win totals won the lottery last year. It's a crap shot and MU is a great drafter. I'm good with Will Riley and play off experience.

Its arguably the worst spot to finish. You dont make the playoffs, you have the worst odds to get a top 4 pick and you most likely get the worst pick out of all teams that made the playoffs.

Raps in 4 · Post #10 » by **Raps in 4** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:31 pm

I think we're going to be a lock for the play-in when finally healthy. i think we have more talent than Chicago, Charlotte, Detroit, Atlanta, and BKN.

Tor_Raps · Post #11 » by **Tor_Raps** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:36 pm

OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

Zeno · Post #12 » by **Zeno** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:53 pm

artsncrafts wrote:
NotMyKawhi wrote:I actually think losing in the playin is best for the team. Gets the young guys experience while still having a chance at the lottery.

2 teams w playin level win totals won the lottery last year. It's a crap shot and MU is a great drafter. I'm good with Will Riley and play off experience.

Its arguably the worst spot to finish. You dont make the playoffs, you have the worst odds to get a top 4 pick and you most likely get the worst pick out of all teams that made the playoffs.

that is true usually but with the West/East discrepancy, if you are the 10th seed going in and lose in the play-in, I could see you getting up to the 7th best odds.

Scase · Post #13 » by **Scase** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 5:59 pm

NotMyKawhi wrote:I actually think losing in the playin is best for the team. Gets the young guys experience while still having a chance at the lottery.

2 teams w playin level win totals won the lottery last year. It's a crap shot and MU is a great drafter. I'm good with Will Riley and play off experience.

This would be the absolute worst possible outcome for this team, I don't understand how anyone can see that as a positive. The goal isn't to cap out as a 1st or 2nd round team, it's to be a legit contender, and this roster barring any Giannis like pick in the teens, aint gonna result in that.

SFour · Post #14 » by **SFour** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:01 pm

They're a middling team when healthy but the positive is that everyone knows they're not far off from being a solid playoff team in the east...but it would require getting a top pick in the draft.

Psubs · Post #15 » by **Psubs** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:02 pm

Tor_Raps wrote:OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

They on Jalen Williams in the teens. Raptors just need another Dick level pick.

The Spurs got Wemby but likely need another #2. Castle might be a #3 or #4 like Derrick White. They are treadmilling and even though they have the Bulls pick along with their own, they might not get a top 5 pick.

ontnut · Post #16 » by **ontnut** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:12 pm

Psubs wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

They on Jalen Williams in the teens. Raptors just need another Dick level pick.

Jalen Green, the highest pick on the Rockets, is probably the least important player of the Rockets core.
Not arguing the point that picking higher has a higher chance of hitting big, just that...picking high ENOUGH is usually good enough.

Raptors need more than Dick. They need a Barnes+ player. I don't see the Raps picking worse than 10th this year.

SHFT · Post #17 » by **SHFT** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:13 pm

___Rand___ wrote:Chart courtesy of https://x.com/kirkgoldsberry

The good news, Raptors are improving.

The bad news: Raptors are in the dangerous territory of being a middling team, again. Once we get everyone back, yes we'll be SOLIDLY mediocre. We won't be the worst, nor will we be the best. We can eek into the playoff, but we won't get anywhere.

I mean, the chart indicates we are basically mediocre right now, why would addition of starters only push us like 5% forward?

Sent from my SM-G991W using RealGM mobile app

Zeno · Post #18 » by **Zeno** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:20 pm

ontnut wrote:
Psubs wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

They on Jalen Williams in the teens. Raptors just need another Dick level pick.

Jalen Green, the highest pick on the Rockets, is probably the least important player of the Rockets core.
Not arguing the point that picking higher has a higher chance of hitting big, just that...picking high ENOUGH is usually good enough.

Raptors need more than Dick. They need a Barnes+ player. I don't see the Raps picking worse than 10th this year.

Unless you have the Raps making the playoffs, it is a near certainty that their floor is 10th and likely they go into the lottery with higher odds than that even as the 10th seed in the east play-in. While I get the benefit of tanking in general, to not want the team to establish even brief stretches of mild moments of success within the vast stretches of losing is over the top.

Tor_Raps · Post #19 » by **Tor_Raps** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:23 pm

ontnut wrote:
Psubs wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

They on Jalen Williams in the teens. Raptors just need another Dick level pick.

Jalen Green, the highest pick on the Rockets, is probably the least important player of the Rockets core.
Not arguing the point that picking higher has a higher chance of hitting big, just that...picking high ENOUGH is usually good enough.

Raptors need more than Dick. They need a Barnes+ player. I don't see the Raps picking worse than 10th this year.

Masai has shown he's amazing at drafting so the higher we draft, the higher chance we can get that true 1st scoring option this team desperately needs. Just 1 year of true pain for years of future success should be the mindset of this franchise.

Los_29 · Post #20 » by **Los_29** » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:25 pm

Tor_Raps wrote:OKC forced SGA to tank for a few seasons when he was actually good enough to carry them. It helped them land Holmgren and now they're one of the best teams in the NBA.

Masai needs to step in by trading the vets and letting Scottie know just 1 season of pain will lead to us being the next OKC/Rockets.

Chet has actually missed more games than he’s played. And I really hope that’s not true about SGA? Imagine asking MJ to sit out games so his team can lose?