Official NBA General Discussion 2024-25 V1.0

[JB7]

I don't think you would suddenly see teams revert to post-ups and mid range jumpers for the majority of their offense, but I think it's a reasonable argument that things have tilted too far in the other direction with only paint 2's, 3's and FT's.

Players back in the earlier days weren't shooting that many 3's at least partly because they weren't good at shooting them. Now, they're good at them and everybody let's it fly. Shooting 3's also became an essential skill, who's to say that couldn't happen for the mid range? Let's say the elite mid range shooters can get up close to 60% and the mediocre ones get closer to 50%, well that's a whole lot different to guard than the typical sub 40% mid range shooter.

Either way, offenses will eventually evolve and find the next inefficiency not being exploited currently to get an advantage over the competition and then there will be copy cats, then eventually everyone does it and rinse and repeat.

I don't see how the half court doesn't become a lot more post ups and ISOs. Players actually haven't gotten all that better at shooting the 3, it's only attempts that have increased. And players hit the mid-range at a higher % than the 3. The 3 is the better shot because it's worth more points resulting in higher expected points, not because it's an easier shot.


The only saving grace would be teams not shying away from transition as they did in the 2000s. But in the half court? It will be ugly basketball.

The percentages are skewed when probably 90% of the league shoots them now versus a much smaller percentage back in the 90's and early 2000's. There were almost no 5's that shot them and barely any 4's back then. I don't think it's even debatable to say players have gotten much better at shooting 3's. You also have to look at the degree of difficulty on movement 3's being shot now. Even if the percentages are comparable, you weren't seeing anyone shooting step back 3's or from the logo in that era as they were extremely low percentage shots.

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

[mdenny]

The low key move for the Rockets is to add jacob poetl for traditional centers minutes. He's got proven pnr chemistry with their team captain, Fred Vanvleet aka player-coach, and he would add more vet savvy to the young team. It would be such a better move than cashing in all their chips for an aging star like KD at this time. Prolonging their window and their options while keeping the big move for a later date. Sengun is a point forward....not a center. Also...Fred should be allowed to play with a whistle around his neck lol.

Works out for the raptors too because they have so many assets to trade unlike the warriors or lakers or whoever.

I think adding poetl could get the Rockets past a first round. Give them a shot at getting past 2 rounds. Sets them up for the big chips-down move next season.

They could pick up fred's option and keep that important trade salary for the big move next season.

While Ime loves Fred, I don't think the GM is prepared to hold onto his contract, with Green and Sengun new deals kicking in next year. They also need to save money for when Jabari and Tari are due new deals the following season.

Why bring in a player to complement a player they probably won't have long term?

Picking up fred's team option doesn't impact the jabari/Tari signings for the followng summer. That's the beauty of it. And he becomes a salary filler trade piece the likes that OKC doesn't have.

[mdenny]

I don't see how the half court doesn't become a lot more post ups and ISOs. Players actually haven't gotten all that better at shooting the 3, it's only attempts that have increased. And players hit the mid-range at a higher % than the 3. The 3 is the better shot because it's worth more points resulting in higher expected points, not because it's an easier shot.


The only saving grace would be teams not shying away from transition as they did in the 2000s. But in the half court? It will be ugly basketball.

The percentages are skewed when probably 90% of the league shoots them now versus a much smaller percentage back in the 90's and early 2000's. There were almost no 5's that shot them and barely any 4's back then. I don't think it's even debatable to say players have gotten much better at shooting 3's. You also have to look at the degree of difficulty on movement 3's being shot now. Even if the percentages are comparable, you weren't seeing anyone shooting step back 3's or from the logo in that era as they were extremely low percentage shots.

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

That's an interesting point. Whenever I heard about the cap I always assumed it meant 3s made. Applying the cap to attempts is VERY different.

I wonder if applying it to attempts has too many side-effects though. You mught end up seeing teams just let the shot clock expire if they don't have a good shot and hand the ball to the ref. That isn't ideal.

You also won't see any mid-court heaves at end of quarters or stuff like that.

[JB7]

The low key move for the Rockets is to add jacob poetl for traditional centers minutes. He's got proven pnr chemistry with their team captain, Fred Vanvleet aka player-coach, and he would add more vet savvy to the young team. It would be such a better move than cashing in all their chips for an aging star like KD at this time. Prolonging their window and their options while keeping the big move for a later date. Sengun is a point forward....not a center. Also...Fred should be allowed to play with a whistle around his neck lol.

Works out for the raptors too because they have so many assets to trade unlike the warriors or lakers or whoever.

I think adding poetl could get the Rockets past a first round. Give them a shot at getting past 2 rounds. Sets them up for the big chips-down move next season.

They could pick up fred's option and keep that important trade salary for the big move next season.

While Ime loves Fred, I don't think the GM is prepared to hold onto his contract, with Green and Sengun new deals kicking in next year. They also need to save money for when Jabari and Tari are due new deals the following season.

Why bring in a player to complement a player they probably won't have long term?

Picking up fred's team option doesn't impact the jabari/Tari signings for the followng summer. That's the beauty of it. And he becomes a salary filler trade piece the likes that OKC doesn't have.

Yes, depending on how close or over the tax threshold they want to be nick season, they could pickup Fred's option. But why trade assets for Yak, when he is then only a helper for the rest of this season and next, and then becomes a problem 2 seasons from now when they need to pay their other guys?

[JB7]

The percentages are skewed when probably 90% of the league shoots them now versus a much smaller percentage back in the 90's and early 2000's. There were almost no 5's that shot them and barely any 4's back then. I don't think it's even debatable to say players have gotten much better at shooting 3's. You also have to look at the degree of difficulty on movement 3's being shot now. Even if the percentages are comparable, you weren't seeing anyone shooting step back 3's or from the logo in that era as they were extremely low percentage shots.

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

That's an interesting point. Whenever I heard about the cap I always assumed it meant 3s made. Applying the cap to attempts is VERY different.

I wonder if applying it to attempts has too many side-effects though. You mught end up seeing teams just let the shot clock expire if they don't have a good shot and hand the ball to the ref. That isn't ideal.

You also won't see any mid-court heaves at end of quarters or stuff like that.

Yes, it would probably eliminate inefficient chances taken from beyond the 3pt arch. But I would think for those end of shot clock situations, they would just get the ball to a player inside the 3pt arch for an attempt.

It ultimately just forces teams to be much more selective of their 3pt attempts.

[mdenny]

Paul George podcast cluckbait tomorrow: "sixers historically disappointing season hits new low. Who's to blame?"

[Syd-TK3]

Jordi Fernandez got the Nets at 9-10 with some huge road wins

[Harry Palmer]

If you think Sengun is a defensive liability, you have not been watching the Rockets. Literally leads the league in DWS, DRT of 100, 4 stocks per 100.

[PushDaRock]

I don't see how the half court doesn't become a lot more post ups and ISOs. Players actually haven't gotten all that better at shooting the 3, it's only attempts that have increased. And players hit the mid-range at a higher % than the 3. The 3 is the better shot because it's worth more points resulting in higher expected points, not because it's an easier shot.


The only saving grace would be teams not shying away from transition as they did in the 2000s. But in the half court? It will be ugly basketball.

The percentages are skewed when probably 90% of the league shoots them now versus a much smaller percentage back in the 90's and early 2000's. There were almost no 5's that shot them and barely any 4's back then. I don't think it's even debatable to say players have gotten much better at shooting 3's. You also have to look at the degree of difficulty on movement 3's being shot now. Even if the percentages are comparable, you weren't seeing anyone shooting step back 3's or from the logo in that era as they were extremely low percentage shots.

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

I think 25 attempts would be way too low. If something like this ever got put in, it would need to be some sort of soft cap and it likely needs to be removed all together in the last 6 minutes at the very least. You can't have games effectively be over if down like 15 with 5 minutes to go only being able to score 2 points at a time because a team ran out of their 3 point attempts.

[mdenny]

The percentages are skewed when probably 90% of the league shoots them now versus a much smaller percentage back in the 90's and early 2000's. There were almost no 5's that shot them and barely any 4's back then. I don't think it's even debatable to say players have gotten much better at shooting 3's. You also have to look at the degree of difficulty on movement 3's being shot now. Even if the percentages are comparable, you weren't seeing anyone shooting step back 3's or from the logo in that era as they were extremely low percentage shots.

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

I think 25 attempts would be way too low. If something like this ever got put in, it would need to be some sort of soft cap and it likely needs to be removed all together in the last 6 minutes at the very least. You can't have games effectively be over if down like 15 with 5 minutes to go only being able to score 2 points at a time because a team ran out of their 3 point attempts.

That's a good point about the end of games being out of reach but it's important to note that ANY new rule to limit 3 attempts will have that impact to SOME degree.

But I agree that consideration has to go into the calculus.

[sidsid]

If you think Sengun is a defensive liability, you have not been watching the Rockets. Literally leads the league in DWS, DRT of 100, 4 stocks per 100.

Brought up earlier here. It's the same setup used to prop up KAT as a viable big for a strong defense in Minny. Sustainable if you have Gobert in the playoffs, but the Rockets don't. The first weak link every playoff opponent will lean on when Green isn't on the floor.

Spoiler:

The secret to being able to play centers who can't defend like Sengun (or KAT, or Sabonis, etc.) is to have them not play center. Still a tough construct to pull off in the playoffs, and ultimately likely unworkable for a contender in general.

https://bsky.app/profile/michaelvpina.bsky.social/post/3lbrsop55i22w

Unless one is a generationally offensive dominant, like Jokic, these type of centers don't work.

I think Sengun and Sabonis are too short (arms) to be effective in the playoffs.

A quote from Udoka in there is he believes it's sustainable because of a relative lack of blow-bys...

Sengun at the 4 when today's average playoff 4 is Durant, LeBron, Tatum, JWill, etc. is not the recipe for success I'd be banking on.

[DelAbbot]

Jordi Fernandez got the Nets at 9-10 with some huge road wins

Jordi the tank destroyer

[JB7]

I think this chart shows the easiest way to solve the overreliance on 3's is to cap the number of attempts in a game. Could be capped at say 25. I would imagine then that the percentages on 3 would tick up, as teams become more selective of their opportunities and who is taking them.

The way the cap would work is once the team has hit its cap of 25 attempts in a game, then everything taken from that distance after the cap would only count as 2pts. This should bring back some of the mid range game, and keep games a bit closer in score.

I think 25 attempts would be way too low. If something like this ever got put in, it would need to be some sort of soft cap and it likely needs to be removed all together in the last 6 minutes at the very least. You can't have games effectively be over if down like 15 with 5 minutes to go only being able to score 2 points at a time because a team ran out of their 3 point attempts.

That's a good point about the end of games being out of reach but it's important to note that ANY new rule to limit 3 attempts will have that impact to SOME degree.

But I agree that consideration has to go into the calculus.

I would think though that a cap on attempts keeps games from getting out of hand so quickly, if teams are trying to be more selective in their use of their 3pt attempts. Part of the reason games get out of hand now is teams start launching 3's immediately, and one of the teams is just more successful in their attempts than the other.

The actual number for the cap could be easily adjusted by the league based on how it impacts the games.

[sidsid]

While Ime loves Fred, I don't think the GM is prepared to hold onto his contract, with Green and Sengun new deals kicking in next year. They also need to save money for when Jabari and Tari are due new deals the following season.

Why bring in a player to complement a player they probably won't have long term?

Picking up fred's team option doesn't impact the jabari/Tari signings for the followng summer. That's the beauty of it. And he becomes a salary filler trade piece the likes that OKC doesn't have.

Yes, depending on how close or over the tax threshold they want to be nick season, they could pickup Fred's option. But why trade assets for Yak, when he is then only a helper for the rest of this season and next, and then becomes a problem 2 seasons from now when they need to pay their other guys?

The absolute deal breaker for the Rockets when they were negotiating with Fred was a 3rd year. They relented with a team option. That's because they had roadmapped their plans years in advance.

Trading for those Suns picks is also a transparent signal of intention. Fred's expiring is for a star trade if they plan on going over the tax.

There are situations where they could trigger the team option, but they all revolve around that initial intention. They have a deal in mind that can possibly be done before the draft, or gambling to make it happen after. If they are taking that gamble, but can't seal the deal right away, I think they then pivot to dumping some of Green's salary to avoid the tax as they continue to shop Fred's expiring until the deadline.

[causal_fan]

Ben Simmons almost had a triple double - we may be seeing a resurrection. Jodi Fernandez may be coach of the year.

[JB7]

Ben Simmons almost had a triple double - we may be seeing a resurrection. Jodi Fernandez may be coach of the year.

14/9/8 - let's calm down there

Jodi is benefitting from having key players playing for the next contracts, where their performance could mean a significant difference in pay (Schroder, Simmons, Thomas & Williams, plus DFS has a player option this summer).

It is working out in terms of building up their value for trades. They just need to be careful about not winning too many games, which could hurt them come the draft.

[mdenny]

Picking up fred's team option doesn't impact the jabari/Tari signings for the followng summer. That's the beauty of it. And he becomes a salary filler trade piece the likes that OKC doesn't have.

Yes, depending on how close or over the tax threshold they want to be nick season, they could pickup Fred's option. But why trade assets for Yak, when he is then only a helper for the rest of this season and next, and then becomes a problem 2 seasons from now when they need to pay their other guys?

The absolute deal breaker for the Rockets when they were negotiating with Fred was a 3rd year. They relented with a team option. That's because they had roadmapped their plans years in advance.

Trading for those Suns picks is also a transparent signal of intention. Fred's expiring is for a star trade if they plan on going over the tax.

There are situations where they could trigger the team option, but they all revolve around that initial intention. They have a deal in mind that can possibly be done before the draft, or gambling to make it happen after. If they are taking that gamble, but can't seal the deal right away, I think they then pivot to dumping some of Green's salary to avoid the tax as they continue to shop Fred's expiring until the deadline.

Yep. This is why I can see rebuilding teams do more and more signings like the Rockets did with Fred. It was kinda genius. They can trade him and his salary this season or next and pick up a star for ONLY FUTURES without destroying their current depth.

OKC doesn't have a salary like that on the books. So if they try to get a star....they would have to lose alot more CURRENT assets (that already help get wins) in the trade package to match salaries.

The Rockets could conceivably add a high end allstar player while ONLY losing Fred from the current roster.

Works for the player involved too. Fred gets about 30 to 40 million more dollars than he's actually worth during the term. The team gets a player who will help prospect development rather than seek his own allstar stats plus a key salary for trading purposes.

Too late in the process for the raps to do something similar. The team needs to do it BEFORE their prospects sign their first big extensions.

[mdenny]

Ben Simmons almost had a triple double - we may be seeing a resurrection. Jodi Fernandez may be coach of the year.

14/9/8 - let's calm down there

Jodi is benefitting from having key players playing for the next contracts, where their performance could mean a significant difference in pay (Schroder, Simmons, Thomas & Williams, plus DFS has a player option this summer).

It is working out in terms of building up their value for trades. They just need to be careful about not winning too many games, which could hurt them come the draft.

14/9/8 is an ideal statline from Simmons so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it. A player who can put those numbers up with his matchup presence and versatility on defensive end is high value.

Let's not forget....Simmons stands as an extremely unique player on the defensive side of the ball where you can essentially eliminate the effectiveness of a high scoring SG or PG that lacks size over a 7 game series. When we played the sixers during our chip run....our biggest problem was norm and fred and Kyle were neutralized as scoring options and none of them had a favorable matchup on defense. (Ie fred's quote "who am I supposed to cover?")

Simmons is still a matchup nightmare being so unique.

The only reason we squeaked by in that series is because kawhi's historic iso performance bailouts plus Ibaka's bench contribution.

[JB7]

Ben Simmons almost had a triple double - we may be seeing a resurrection. Jodi Fernandez may be coach of the year.

14/9/8 - let's calm down there

Jodi is benefitting from having key players playing for the next contracts, where their performance could mean a significant difference in pay (Schroder, Simmons, Thomas & Williams, plus DFS has a player option this summer).

It is working out in terms of building up their value for trades. They just need to be careful about not winning too many games, which could hurt them come the draft.

14/9/8 is an ideal statline from Simmons so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it. A player who can put those numbers up with his matchup presence and versatility on defensive end is high value.

Let's not forget....Simmons stands as an extremely unique player on the defensive side of the ball where you can essentially eliminate the effectiveness of a high scoring SG or PG that lacks size over a 7 game series. When we played the sixers during our chip run....our biggest problem was norm and fred and Kyle were neutralized as scoring options and none of them had a favorable matchup on defense. (Ie fred's quote "who am I supposed to cover?")

Simmons is still a matchup nightmare being so unique.

The only reason we squeaked by in that series is because kawhi's historic iso performance bailouts plus Ibaka's bench contribution.

Let's not forget that was one game from Simmons. He should easily be able to average those numbers with his size, handle and athleticism. But for the season he is averaging 6pts, 6 rebs & just over 6 assists per game, and he is still only 28 years old.

That is the problem with Simmons. Too inconsistent, still afraid to shoot, which makes it difficult to keep him on the court, because on O, they are almost playing 4 on 5.

And the only reason Simmons is even showing up this year is because his contract is about to expire, and he is hoping some team is dumb enough to give him another deal.

[tsherkin]

14/9/8 - let's calm down there

Jodi is benefitting from having key players playing for the next contracts, where their performance could mean a significant difference in pay (Schroder, Simmons, Thomas & Williams, plus DFS has a player option this summer).

It is working out in terms of building up their value for trades. They just need to be careful about not winning too many games, which could hurt them come the draft.

14/9/8 is an ideal statline from Simmons so I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it. A player who can put those numbers up with his matchup presence and versatility on defensive end is high value.

Let's not forget....Simmons stands as an extremely unique player on the defensive side of the ball where you can essentially eliminate the effectiveness of a high scoring SG or PG that lacks size over a 7 game series. When we played the sixers during our chip run....our biggest problem was norm and fred and Kyle were neutralized as scoring options and none of them had a favorable matchup on defense. (Ie fred's quote "who am I supposed to cover?")

Simmons is still a matchup nightmare being so unique.

The only reason we squeaked by in that series is because kawhi's historic iso performance bailouts plus Ibaka's bench contribution.

Let's not forget that was one game from Simmons. He should easily be able to average those numbers with his size, handle and athleticism. But for the season he is averaging 6pts, 6 rebs & just over 6 assists per game, and he is still only 28 years old.

That is the problem with Simmons. Too inconsistent, still afraid to shoot, which makes it difficult to keep him on the court, because on O, they are almost playing 4 on 5.

And the only reason Simmons is even showing up this year is because his contract is about to expire, and he is hoping some team is dumb enough to give him another deal.

Simmons is Simmons. I'd generally thought that had become accepted by now. He was drafted almost a decade ago; he's 28 years old. He is who he is. Missed time aside, I don't think it's sensible to expect major development from him in terms of his fundamental approach at this stage. If he plays 20 games this season, that'll be a victory compared to last year. If he plays 50, it'll be a victory compared to the year before. If he plays 60, it'll be the first time since 2019. He is playing under 25 mpg. His TOV right now is 35.3%, which is manically high, against the second-lowest USG of his career.

He's barely drawing fouls and he's hit them at a rate well above his career norm. He still doesn't take 3s, basically doesn't shoot outside of 10 feet. When he bothers, he's still quite proficient inside 10 feet.

But that's Simmons, that's basically who he has always been when he's on the court. A lot of wasted talent. Some due to injury, some due to mentality.