At what point does 76ers hole become too big?

[HotelVitale]

I keep telling myself that as long as they make the play-in they'll be fine but the losses are piling up. Yes they're only 3.5 games out of the 10th seed but they're also 11 games under .500 and more than likely Embiid and George will probably miss some more games. Eventually they got to get going.

Feel like there was a lot of posts that distracted from it here but when the team should actually cut the cord is a good question. The franchise and FO is definitely not thinking about tanking away the year so we should probably assume the season priority is to give the team a chance at the PO, but also keep in mind that at some point you gotta think about your draft pick. Even if just as a trade asset.

First thing to note is the Sixers owe a top-6 protected pick to OKC. These days you have to be bottom 5 to have a 50%+ chance at keeping the #6 pick, and even #5 would have a 36% chance of losing it. At the same time the bottom 9 teams end up with at least a 25% chance of landing a top-4 pick, which is worth something in a year with a strong top of the draft. So it's pretty directly valuable if the Sixers can stay bottom 5, and a worthy gamble if they can stay bottom 9 or so.

Next thing is that they could probably estimate that, in realistic best case scenario, making the play would require 34 wins. They have 65 games left now. Let's say Embiid doesn't seem ready for another 20 or so games and the team goes at the same pace (with PG either also missing time or not moving needle), which would put them at like 7-30 with 45 games left. They'd still only need to go about .600 to win 34 games at that point (27w-18l), and wins do tend to be easier to come by in the last two months of the season. Once that carried on for like 30 games, though, you'd be looking at them being like 9-38 and needing to win 70%+ of remaining games to hit even the lowest estimate of play-in games. I think that might be the time when anyone should see the window closing, and stop e.g. rehabbing Embiid to come back ASAP and start giving him 6 months to get back into form.

It's a big old mess no matter what. But I don't think you're going to see serious interest in calling it a lost season and going for draft positioning until at least the 45-game mark--which is still 2+ full months away. And even then I'd kinda doubt they'll start pulling healthy guys etc.

[Vampirate]

Last year it took 36 wins to get the #10 spot in the east. So they gotta be a .500 team and go 33-32 from now until the end of the season. I dont see it happening

I think with some health and a softer schedule they'll make the playin eventually.

Part of their record is a mix of injuries with a very tough schedule to start.

[Sixers in 4]

It isn't even about the record it's about Embiids health. I think we are going to make the playin but making the playin with Embiid who is a shell of his former MVP self is a road to nowhere.

What concerns me is the longterm functionality of Embiids knee and whether he'll ever be able to play at that level again because the entire roster is built around that. If he isn't right this team is going nowhere.

[cgf]

It already is. They may still get the 10th seed but even if they won both play-in games, they'd just get smacked in round 1.

Nah went off the deep end here and voiced the wrong concern. They're like 5 games from being the 5th seed and 1/5th of the season has passed. Mathematically any solid two-week stretch for the whole season could be enough for them to catch up.

So the situation is still plenty salvageable if they can start playing better...problem is more that it's hard to be confident that's going to happen anytime soon. If Embiid isn't at least very good, this team doens't have the depth or star power to do much.

But that's with a number of those teams ahead of them starting poorly because they had to develop the chemistry that Philly still needs to start doing with its big 3. So the rate at which the teams they need to catch to avoid a first round massacre, should be stacking wins at faster rates as the season progresses.

That's why even if Embiid, Maxey, and George gave you 60 games together from here on out and clicked ASAFP; I still think you'd end up in the play-in, battling for the honor of a first-round ass-whooping.

[bkkrh]

Not trying to be defensive about the Sixers, believe me Philly folks are not feeling this team at all now. Aint no defending them. But this whole destiny talk always seems like sports talk nonsense, stuff to pull out when the host has to pass 45 minutes talking about a team. Lots of games and series can go either way and it's weird to pretend they were fated to go like they did, and teams can switch things up at any moment too. The Warriors were a joke for years until they were a dynasty, the Celtics were chokers until they became masters sometime last season, etc.

Generally you are right of course, at this point it's just Embiid and for a few seasons now Maxey.

I see it more from the perspective of as you said as well already having tried a Million different things and in every other season I kinda liked their chances more. I generally always thought they had a pretty good roster and often also did trades during the season that looked good on paper. It just never worked out. Even in 17-18 I thought they had a really impressive team after the offseason, only knock against them was the lack of playoff experience.

Last season they mostly signed role players and players that had played well on bad teams like Oubre, but even there I could see that there is some potential for things to work out, with a relatively low risk. This season I kinda felt already that the offseason moves aren't that great. Caleb Martin is of course a decent addition and I don't think that Paul George has fallen off as badly in one offseason as he currently looks, but until now I don't see anything to really be optimistic about that they just switch a flip and win enough games while keeping all their players healthy and rested for the playoffs.

I think the point will come where they need to decide to either throw away this year, hope to get their pick and either trade it for a proven player, or trade a rookie that can help immediatelly, or to push for the playoffs, which might then result in some of their key players not being healthy or fit for the actual playoffs. Kinda similar to Kobe's last healthy year, when the Lakers realized that they weren't as good as they thought and he pretty much brought them into a Playoff spot by playing almost the full length of each game until he went down with his injury and they lost in the first round.

In general you are of course right with teams having a certain reputation until they beat it, it's not that long ago that you heard "Knicks gonna Knicks" related to pretty much each trade and signing we did .

[MrBigShot]

They aren't good enough even if everyone is playing for them to dig themselves out of this hole, best case scenario is sneak into play in.

[Jabroni Lames]

They are in the east, one 5 game winning streak and they are back in the thick of things.

I don't know if they can win 5 straight bec schedules for facing East and West teams are pretty spread out.
And it's not like most East teams are bad. Detroit and the Nets somehow are finding some rhythm and cohesion.
They face the Pistons and Charlotte... bad then back to back vs Orlando which is tough then 3 bad teams in Hornets, Bulls and... Spurs..If they don't rack up 6 wins there... When is Embiid coming back?

That's the thing, no one knows about Embiid's health so this is all just wheel-spinning. If Embiid comes back healthy and playing like he has in the past 5 years, there'll be no problem whatsoever. They've played at a .600+ pace for a long time now when Embiid's been healthy and the supporting cast is solid enough. So whether you're using last season or this one as a measure of what they need to get to a decent seed, the season's not in danger if he can get back.

But if he's out for half the season, if PG misses a bunch more time, if Embiid doesn't come back looking very good, etc, then yeah the Sixers are toast. But there's really nothing more to say now than 'guess we'll see what happens with the injured guys in the next couple weeks.'

The question is for what exactly. The Sixer haven't beaten a single decent opponent since the process started in the Playoffs. The best team were the 6th seed Raptors and Barnes and VanVleet both missed parts of that series. So the likeliness of them beating the Celtics or Cavaliers (assuming things don't change) as a play in team seem to be close to zero.

The 'Sixers' are a logo, there's nothing inherent to the team besides that. Literally no one is on the team besides Embiid from 2021, and only Maxey and him from 2022. They've changed GMs, coaches, almost the whole coaching staff, the entire roster and offensive philosophy/strategy, etc since 2019 too. And they were also a lucky bounce or two from beating the champ TOR team in '19 and BOS in '22. Even if you're tying this to Embiid and not believing in him, they now have two co-stars (Maxey and PG) and a whole new roster who are going to determine a series much more than Embiid on his own will.

Not trying to be defensive about the Sixers, believe me Philly folks are not feeling this team at all now. Aint no defending them. But this whole destiny talk always seems like sports talk nonsense, stuff to pull out when the host has to pass 45 minutes talking about a team. Lots of games and series can go either way and it's weird to pretend they were fated to go like they did, and teams can switch things up at any moment too. The Warriors were a joke for years until they were a dynasty, the Celtics were chokers until they became masters sometime last season, etc.

Calling the Tatum/Brown iteration of Celtics "chokers" is just dumb. Tatum and Brown were in their early 20's when they made the ECF, and then made multiple appearances. That's called over-exceeding. They have basically been measured against their own way too early success.

Sixers, on the other hand, have never even made it out of the second round. And after a decade, they have a broken down Embiid, on the wrong side of 30 and PG, who will be 35 in May.

You're using 2 completely different measuring sticks here.

[jokeboy86]

It already is. They may still get the 10th seed but even if they won both play-in games, they'd just get smacked in round 1.

Nah went off the deep end here and voiced the wrong concern. They're like 5 games from being the 5th seed and 1/5th of the season has passed. Mathematically any solid two-week stretch for the whole season could be enough for them to catch up.

So the situation is still plenty salvageable if they can start playing better...problem is more that it's hard to be confident that's going to happen anytime soon. If Embiid isn't at least very good, this team doens't have the depth or star power to do much.

But that's with a number of those teams ahead of them starting poorly because they had to develop the chemistry that Philly still needs to start doing with its big 3. So the rate at which the teams they need to catch to avoid a first round massacre, should be stacking wins at faster rates as the season progresses.

That's why even if Embiid, Maxey, and George gave you 60 games together from here on out and clicked ASAFP; I still think you'd end up in the play-in, battling for the honor of a first-round ass-whooping.

See I think Morey is thinking the same thing that the Lakers FO has basically been thinking since they partnered AD & Lebron: as long as their stars get to the playoffs healthy they feel they can beat anybody. That's probably the reason that the Lakers have run through as many coaches as they have because Jeanie and her lapdogs expectations are out of whack. The Clippers have basically been operating the same way which is why they're still rolling with Kawhi. I'm sure Philly ownership and management have been telling themselves that the reason for their playoff failures is only because Embiid has never entered or gotten through the playoffs healthy.

[HotelVitale]

Not trying to be defensive about the Sixers, believe me Philly folks are not feeling this team at all now. Aint no defending them. But this whole destiny talk always seems like sports talk nonsense, stuff to pull out when the host has to pass 45 minutes talking about a team. Lots of games and series can go either way and it's weird to pretend they were fated to go like they did, and teams can switch things up at any moment too. The Warriors were a joke for years until they were a dynasty, the Celtics were chokers until they became masters sometime last season, etc.

Generally you are right of course, at this point it's just Embiid and for a few seasons now Maxey.

I see it more from the perspective of as you said as well already having tried a Million different things and in every other season I kinda liked their chances more. I generally always thought they had a pretty good roster and often also did trades during the season that looked good on paper. It just never worked out. Even in 17-18 I thought they had a really impressive team after the offseason, only knock against them was the lack of playoff experience.

Sure, I'm just saying not to lose the trees for the forest with this stuff. I.e. not to flip from 'the Sixers haven't beaten good teams for a variety of complicated reasons' to 'the Sixers could not have and never will beat good teams.' The Sixers in '19 had lots of limitations and the same ongoing issues with Simmons+Embiid, but still they absolutely could've beat the Raptors, that was a coin flip series. (Even if you liked the Raptors more and would've bet on them, Sixers would've still had like a 40% chance of winning--which for some reason lots of sports fans don't get is still a very very good chance.)

Same thing with '22 Celtics series--Sixers were up by a bunch in the second half of game 6 at home (with a 3-2 lead), and then they just missed like 14 of 15 3s in a row, and then Tatum got hot and overtook them. Which yes shows that the Celtics had a guy like Tatum who can and did get hot when he needed to, but his hot streak wouldn't have mattered if the Sixers hit a couple more open shots. You can still think 'I don't know, Embiid till doesn't feel right to me' and acknowledge that having a variety of reliable shooters miss tons of 3s in a row wasn't 'fated' to happen. It just did, and it could've gone differently. (That's why we like sports, right?)

On another note, if you're saying that in other offseasons recently you liked the team more, I think that's a pretty unusual take that I'm not sure about. The Sixers haven't been a disaster this year because their roster is bad based on reasonable recent expectations--they've been a disaster cuz Embiid is usually a legit monster in the RS and has barely played and looked bad when he did, cuz PG has barely played, cuz Maxey has played worse than his last 3-year sample, cuz the not-too-old vets like Caleb Martin and Drummond and Oubre are all playing way worse than recently, etc. The mystery parts of the roster entering the season have all been pretty nice--Yabusele is better than expected, McCain of course a big surprise, even the old af new additions haven't been that bad overall (though not really good either). If everyone was on the court and playing like they did last year, seems like the team would be looking pretty nice.

[HotelVitale]

Nah went off the deep end here and voiced the wrong concern. They're like 5 games from being the 5th seed and 1/5th of the season has passed. Mathematically any solid two-week stretch for the whole season could be enough for them to catch up.

So the situation is still plenty salvageable if they can start playing better...problem is more that it's hard to be confident that's going to happen anytime soon. If Embiid isn't at least very good, this team doens't have the depth or star power to do much.

But that's with a number of those teams ahead of them starting poorly because they had to develop the chemistry that Philly still needs to start doing with its big 3. So the rate at which the teams they need to catch to avoid a first round massacre, should be stacking wins at faster rates as the season progresses.

That's why even if Embiid, Maxey, and George gave you 60 games together from here on out and clicked ASAFP; I still think you'd end up in the play-in, battling for the honor of a first-round ass-whooping.

See I think Morey is thinking the same thing that the Lakers FO has basically been thinking since they partnered AD & Lebron: as long as their stars get to the playoffs healthy they feel they can beat anybody. That's probably the reason that the Lakers have run through as many coaches as they have because Jeanie and her lapdogs expectations are out of whack. The Clippers have basically been operating the same way which is why they're still rolling with Kawhi. I'm sure Philly ownership and management have been telling themselves that the reason for their playoff failures is only because Embiid has never entered or gotten through the playoffs healthy.

Nah, man, they're just making the very reasonable and rational calculation that there aren't many ways to win a title, that it takes years and lots of luck to get your team one of those ways, and that you should keep trying when you have those chances, even if they're only like 10% or 15% or whatever. That means you're mostly going to lose your gamble (85-90% of the time) but it's not unreasonable to think it's giving you a better chance than some other course of action.

Also CGF I'm really not optimistic for this season for the Sixers but seems like you're going to weird lengths to defend the point that the Sixers are completely boned even if things turn around tomorrow. Like here you're assuming the Pacers are a sleeping giant that's vastly underachieiving at .500, or that a mediocre Heat team is also about to take off when they seem like about a .500 team. Sixers just need to get to the 6th seed to avoid what you keep calling a pounding, and that means beating out MIA and IND. You're also assuming the Cavs are suddenly an instant buzzsaw in any PO series, even after how the same exact team played last PO. I'd obviously want to avoid them but using phrases like ass-whooping and curb-stomping for anyone who faces that team might be an indication you want to paint thinks a little rougher than they are.

[HotelVitale]

Calling the Tatum/Brown iteration of Celtics "chokers" is just dumb. Tatum and Brown were in their early 20's when they made the ECF, and then made multiple appearances. That's called over-exceeding. They have basically been measured against their own way too early success.

Sixers, on the other hand, have never even made it out of the second round. And after a decade, they have a broken down Embiid, on the wrong side of 30 and PG, who will be 35 in May.

You're using 2 completely different measuring sticks here.

Not sure what you're up to here, by my count you're plucking out the 2nd less-relevant example given to support a different point made in response to someone else. Who also wasn't arguing anything that you're arguing.

But I'll try to work with what you got and say that, yeah, the Process could've very, very easily ended up with Tatum and Brown and a bunch of other assets. It's not knocking the idea of the Process to say that they happened to draft two very flawed all-NBA guys in Simmons and Embiid, while the Celtics happened to draft two more mentally sound and focused all-NBA guys with similar picks (that were gifted to them in a historically bad deal).

Also if you don't remember the mountains of doubt and derision that people heaped on the Celtics teams form 2021-23, you either have a terrible memory or are playing dumb to make your point.

[SFour]

Sixers are the new Clippers.....Embiid's body isn't built to last a full 20+ playoff game championship run.

[mkot]

3-14 at the moment, so 17 games gone, 65 remaining.

Let's say they only get the main guys together for 50 games the rest of the season, and in the remaining 15 games, they go 5-10 (I'm being pessimistic about it to stretch how much of a hole they could be in), so 8-24 in those 32 games.

If they win the other 50 games at a 50 win pace, that would get them to 38 wins, which is a .463 win percentage.

Currently, .463 win percentage would be 9th and would have them in the play-in. I'm assuming as long as they can make the play-in, they are content, so I suppose anything that projects them around 38+ wins they would be content to stomach.

And then get bounced by either Boston or Cleveland in the first round, what's the point?

This is a new team that need the regular season to build chemistry and cohesion, and stay healthy and I think they are slowly running out of time with no timetable for Paul George and Embiid returning. I think it might be better to just shut it down and let Embiid's body heal and then make one last run next year. Cut/dumb/trade guys like Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond and sign some young legs and see if there's some diamond in the rough.

[phanman]

3-14 at the moment, so 17 games gone, 65 remaining.

Let's say they only get the main guys together for 50 games the rest of the season, and in the remaining 15 games, they go 5-10 (I'm being pessimistic about it to stretch how much of a hole they could be in), so 8-24 in those 32 games.

If they win the other 50 games at a 50 win pace, that would get them to 38 wins, which is a .463 win percentage.

Currently, .463 win percentage would be 9th and would have them in the play-in. I'm assuming as long as they can make the play-in, they are content, so I suppose anything that projects them around 38+ wins they would be content to stomach.

And then get bounced by either Boston or Cleveland in the first round, what's the point?

This is a new team that need the regular season to build chemistry and cohesion, and stay healthy and I think they are slowly running out of time with no timetable for Paul George and Embiid returning. I think it might be better to just shut it down and let Embiid's body heal and then make one last run next year. Cut/dumb/trade guys like Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond and sign some young legs and see if there's some diamond in the rough.

In this given scenario, Philly would've had to build that chemistry and cohesion with the big 3 in order to make it to the playoffs. As good as Cleveland has been so far, I like a healthy Philly team's chances against Cleveland. Theywouldn't be favourites but it wouldn't be a stomp like your suggesting either. I can guarantee you that Cleveland would rather face any other team than Philly in R1.

Boston on the hand, is just a different monster. With a chip under their belt, there is no team they should be and are scared of.

[og15]

3-14 at the moment, so 17 games gone, 65 remaining.

Let's say they only get the main guys together for 50 games the rest of the season, and in the remaining 15 games, they go 5-10 (I'm being pessimistic about it to stretch how much of a hole they could be in), so 8-24 in those 32 games.

If they win the other 50 games at a 50 win pace, that would get them to 38 wins, which is a .463 win percentage.

Currently, .463 win percentage would be 9th and would have them in the play-in. I'm assuming as long as they can make the play-in, they are content, so I suppose anything that projects them around 38+ wins they would be content to stomach.

And then get bounced by either Boston or Cleveland in the first round, what's the point?

This is a new team that need the regular season to build chemistry and cohesion, and stay healthy and I think they are slowly running out of time with no timetable for Paul George and Embiid returning. I think it might be better to just shut it down and let Embiid's body heal and then make one last run next year. Cut/dumb/trade guys like Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson, Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond and sign some young legs and see if there's some diamond in the rough.

What's the point is a good question, and they might decide it's not worth it.

...but, their chances with the current main core don't get better as years go by. If they are truly a contender, then they would still have to get past that #1 seed team to get to the finals or conference finals regardless of their seeding. So if they believe that when healthy they actually have a championship shot, you take it. It doesn't get better next season.

This doesn't mean this season looks good for them, just saying that championship windows are fickle regardless.

[CS707]

When you extend Embiid and sign Paul George.

[BigGargamel]

I read the goal is to get to 33 wins and the play in. The fact that 33 wins in the East can possibly get you into the playoffs shows how pointless the regular season is. That play in is so stupid.

[Jabroni Lames]

Calling the Tatum/Brown iteration of Celtics "chokers" is just dumb. Tatum and Brown were in their early 20's when they made the ECF, and then made multiple appearances. That's called over-exceeding. They have basically been measured against their own way too early success.

Sixers, on the other hand, have never even made it out of the second round. And after a decade, they have a broken down Embiid, on the wrong side of 30 and PG, who will be 35 in May.

You're using 2 completely different measuring sticks here.

Not sure what you're up to here, by my count you're plucking out the 2nd less-relevant example given to support a different point made in response to someone else. Who also wasn't arguing anything that you're arguing.

But I'll try to work with what you got and say that, yeah, the Process could've very, very easily ended up with Tatum and Brown and a bunch of other assets. It's not knocking the idea of the Process to say that they happened to draft two very flawed all-NBA guys in Simmons and Embiid, while the Celtics happened to draft two more mentally sound and focused all-NBA guys with similar picks (that were gifted to them in a historically bad deal).

Also if you don't remember the mountains of doubt and derision that people heaped on the Celtics teams form 2021-23, you either have a terrible memory or are playing dumb to make your point.

Well, no. That whole point of The Process was to specifically account for "misses" in drafting by getting "a bushel of picks". That's pretty close to a direct quote from Sam Hinkie, explaining his rationale for trading useful NBA calibre players for picks.

And sure, I remember the Celtics derision, but criticizing a 20-something core for achieving great things early on was obviously dumb back then, and it looks even dumber today.

That's completely different than banking on growth from a Sixers team led by a 30-year Embiid, who is breaking down regularly, and is now surrounded with a soon-to-be 35 year old Paul George. That was more of the point I was trying to make. You can't compare their situations.

I mean, sure, Embiid might finally make it out of the 2nd round and even sniff a championship within the next 5 years if he can string together a healthy playoff run... but it's getting more unlikely as each year passes.

[JFiasco]

Tankathon has the 76ers with the 21st easiest SoS
https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
Power Ranking Gurus have them with the 22nd easiest schedule
https://powerrankingsguru.com/nba/strength-of-schedule.php
Crazy part to this is they havent played BOS, OKC, GSW DAL

that does give the 6ers some life but again biggest issues are:
1. How many games will Embiid actually play and which games! like is he gonna duck Denver in Denver again? they cant give away free games. Embiid really needs to play against Davis, Joker, KAT, Sabonis, Wemby other bigs he can probably miss.
2. How many games will PG play and again which?
3. Will Maxey survive carrying a bigger burden with his 2 co-stars continually missing games?
4. This team is essentially brand new, great signings but they need to find their feet together as a group, if they arent playing together continuously, how will they build that?

[Iwasawitness]

When it prolapses.

This needs more and1s.