Tank World Order V (Rise of the Phoenix)

[Scase]

Honestly I consider myself a big advocate of tanking and I’ve never been more positive about the Raptors since the Gasol trade.

I think the future is very bright with one more Barnes level or better talent added and another trade like the draft trade last year.

Most everyone is relatively positive with the caveat that we get another Scottie level talent, hence the push for a bad record for that top 5 pick. The people he's referring to, are the ones that think this current iteration of the team is a 30+ win level roster.

That's the thing, it's logical to be positive based on the pieces so far, while also being realistic and acknowledging that it's still got a glaring hole talentwise, and that this season they are going to be bad. But throwing things around like net rating, and some random hope that they can be 2x better than they have been for no apparent reason makes no sense.

Net rating is important for good teams, it also completely ignores how we are one of the worst teams in the league in net rating in clutch situations. Just because we can keep the games close, doesn't mean that we're going to win them, and these are the arguments being used as to why we aren't as bad as our record.

Which side note, is one of the dumbest arguments ever. If you weren't as good/bad as your record, you wouldn't have that record. They are, who we thought they were.

That’s all fair. The larger the sample size the less validity to the claims “they are better than their record” and it also ignores everyone deals with injuries.

I was calling for 27-32 wins in July.

Exactly, they think the team will get better with the bigger sample size, I think we remain the same. And as for the injury excuse, the Clips, Suns, Grizz, Blazers, and C's have comparable losses from a raw $$ amount and they all have better records.

Raps have lost 17mil and are 2nd, and the C's who are 9th are at 11m. It's important to note that of that 17mil over 5mil of it is BB, who we know would not move the needle a whole lot. So realistically we have IQ who accounts for 6.5mil of that 17mil, and then nothing until KO who is 2.5mil. Also another player that contributes very little to winning.

Meanwhile you have teams like the suns missing beal and KD a decent amount and yet they are 10-8. Sure, we are pretty injured, but most of it has been IQ and then a bunch of players that have little impact. It's just copium.

[PushDaRock]

You think anyone of these anti tanker would ever admit to mistakes??
We have years of terrible and soul sucking basketball when we watched teams gather assets and pass us by, and still they think they are right. They are just here for the sake of arguing. (I mean why come into a tanking thread in the first place? To spread positivity? Gtfoh )

Honestly I consider myself a big advocate of tanking and I’ve never been more positive about the Raptors since the Gasol trade.

I think the future is very bright with one more Barnes level or better talent added and another trade like the draft trade last year.

Most everyone is relatively positive with the caveat that we get another Scottie level talent, hence the push for a bad record for that top 5 pick. The people he's referring to, are the ones that think this current iteration of the team is a 30+ win level roster.

That's the thing, it's logical to be positive based on the pieces so far, while also being realistic and acknowledging that it's still got a glaring hole talentwise, and that this season they are going to be bad. But throwing things around like net rating, and some random hope that they can be 2x better than they have been for no apparent reason makes no sense.

Net rating is important for good teams, it also completely ignores how we are one of the worst teams in the league in net rating in clutch situations. Just because we can keep the games close, doesn't mean that we're going to win them, and these are the arguments being used as to why we aren't as bad as our record.

Which side note, is one of the dumbest arguments ever. If you weren't as good/bad as your record, you wouldn't have that record. They are, who we thought they were.

I think you are just making things up to fit your own narrative when you say NRTG matters for good teams but not bad ones. That doesn't even make sense.

Is a team that's bad in the clutch expected to lose more close games? Yes, but that doesn't mean they should automatically lose every close game. There is obviously some variance at play in a close game where good and bad teams can both lose games when it comes down to a play or 2 that can go either way.

We are less than 20 games into the season, do you consider that a large enough sample size to say every team right now is "who we thought they were"?

[sidsid]

I'm obviously biased on this at the moment, but with the league fining the Hawks for bogus health scratches and flat-out staging a coup against The Process...

There should be rewards for ethical tanking. If games are still exciting leading into the final minutes, that's achieving Silver's mandate.

Point differential, games ending within 5 points or whatever. At the end of the season there should be some re-ranking within, say, 3 spots of wherever you end up and teams move up/down based on the shameless/ethical tanking metrics.

[nikster]

Most everyone is relatively positive with the caveat that we get another Scottie level talent, hence the push for a bad record for that top 5 pick. The people he's referring to, are the ones that think this current iteration of the team is a 30+ win level roster.

That's the thing, it's logical to be positive based on the pieces so far, while also being realistic and acknowledging that it's still got a glaring hole talentwise, and that this season they are going to be bad. But throwing things around like net rating, and some random hope that they can be 2x better than they have been for no apparent reason makes no sense.

Net rating is important for good teams, it also completely ignores how we are one of the worst teams in the league in net rating in clutch situations. Just because we can keep the games close, doesn't mean that we're going to win them, and these are the arguments being used as to why we aren't as bad as our record.

Which side note, is one of the dumbest arguments ever. If you weren't as good/bad as your record, you wouldn't have that record. They are, who we thought they were.

That’s all fair. The larger the sample size the less validity to the claims “they are better than their record” and it also ignores everyone deals with injuries.

I was calling for 27-32 wins in July.

Exactly, they think the team will get better with the bigger sample size, I think we remain the same. And as for the injury excuse, the Clips, Suns, Grizz, Blazers, and C's have comparable losses from a raw $$ amount and they all have better records.

Raps have lost 17mil and are 2nd, and the C's who are 9th are at 11m. It's important to note that of that 17mil over 5mil of it is BB, who we know would not move the needle a whole lot. So realistically we have IQ who accounts for 6.5mil of that 17mil, and then nothing until KO who is 2.5mil. Also another player that contributes very little to winning.

Meanwhile you have teams like the suns missing beal and KD a decent amount and yet they are 10-8. Sure, we are pretty injured, but most of it has been IQ and then a bunch of players that have little impact. It's just copium.

The numbers aren't really that close. We have a pretty meaningful gap with Memphis whos right behind us, and are about 1.5 x Blazers total.

BB and KO aren't high impact players but the more injuries you have the more those depth injuries hurt, because the guys you end up are replacing them with are that much worse. Like Kelly is way better than Fernando (especially how he first started). Our top 5 leaders in minutes this year are Poeltl, Gradey and Agbaji, RJ and Davion in that order. Davion Mitchell is our 9th man at best but is 5th in total minutes (and might be our 11th best player if you think Walter or Mogbo could be more impactful).

If you want to start nit picking value lost, BB is overpaid but Scottie is on a rookie deal making him massively underpaid. the Suns lost Durant but Beal missed just as much and he is terribly overpaid ($20 million more than Scottie and BB combined).

Factor in our tough schedule and a net rating thay indicates we're better than our record it doesn't look that bad.

[YogurtProducer]

That’s all fair. The larger the sample size the less validity to the claims “they are better than their record” and it also ignores everyone deals with injuries.

I was calling for 27-32 wins in July.

Exactly, they think the team will get better with the bigger sample size, I think we remain the same. And as for the injury excuse, the Clips, Suns, Grizz, Blazers, and C's have comparable losses from a raw $$ amount and they all have better records.

Raps have lost 17mil and are 2nd, and the C's who are 9th are at 11m. It's important to note that of that 17mil over 5mil of it is BB, who we know would not move the needle a whole lot. So realistically we have IQ who accounts for 6.5mil of that 17mil, and then nothing until KO who is 2.5mil. Also another player that contributes very little to winning.

Meanwhile you have teams like the suns missing beal and KD a decent amount and yet they are 10-8. Sure, we are pretty injured, but most of it has been IQ and then a bunch of players that have little impact. It's just copium.

The numbers aren't really that close. We have a pretty meaningful gap with Memphis whos right behind us, and are about 1.5 x Blazers total.

BB and KO aren't high impact players but the more injuries you have the more those depth injuries hurt, because the guys you end up are replacing them with are that much worse. Like Kelly is way better than Fernando (especially how he first started). Our top 5 leaders in minutes this year are Poeltl, Gradey and Agbaji, RJ and Davion in that order. Davion Mitchell is our 9th man at best but is 5th in total minutes (and might be our 11th best player if you think Walter or Mogbo could be more impactful).

If you want to start nit picking value lost, BB is overpaid but Scottie is on a rookie deal making him massively underpaid. the Suns lost Durant but Beal missed just as much and he is terribly overpaid ($20 million more than Scottie and BB combined).

Factor in our tough schedule and a net rating thay indicates we're better than our record it doesn't look that bad.

Where are you guys even finding this information (games lost vs salary)?

My first thought was Scottie's salary is not reflective of his "$"'s lost.

[YogurtProducer]

Which side note, is one of the dumbest arguments ever. If you weren't as good/bad as your record, you wouldn't have that record. They are, who we thought they were.

The truly dumb argument is thinking that injuries, schedule, or none of that actually play a factor ESPECIALLY in a small 20-game sample size.

You've never been strong with sample sizes I understand, but you gotta understand that 19/20 games into a season that there are a huge number of factors that can make it noisy, right?

[PushDaRock]

That’s all fair. The larger the sample size the less validity to the claims “they are better than their record” and it also ignores everyone deals with injuries.

I was calling for 27-32 wins in July.

Exactly, they think the team will get better with the bigger sample size, I think we remain the same. And as for the injury excuse, the Clips, Suns, Grizz, Blazers, and C's have comparable losses from a raw $$ amount and they all have better records.

Raps have lost 17mil and are 2nd, and the C's who are 9th are at 11m. It's important to note that of that 17mil over 5mil of it is BB, who we know would not move the needle a whole lot. So realistically we have IQ who accounts for 6.5mil of that 17mil, and then nothing until KO who is 2.5mil. Also another player that contributes very little to winning.

Meanwhile you have teams like the suns missing beal and KD a decent amount and yet they are 10-8. Sure, we are pretty injured, but most of it has been IQ and then a bunch of players that have little impact. It's just copium.

The numbers aren't really that close. We have a pretty meaningful gap with Memphis whos right behind us, and are about 1.5 x Blazers total.

BB and KO aren't high impact players but the more injuries you have the more those depth injuries hurt, because the guys you end up are replacing them with are that much worse. Like Kelly is way better than Fernando (especially how he first started). Our top 5 leaders in minutes this year are Poeltl, Gradey and Agbaji, RJ and Davion in that order. Davion Mitchell is our 9th man at best but is 5th in total minutes (and might be our 11th best player if you think Walter or Mogbo could be more impactful).

If you want to start nit picking value lost, BB is overpaid but Scottie is on a rookie deal making him massively underpaid. the Suns lost Durant but Beal missed just as much and he is terribly overpaid ($20 million more than Scottie and BB combined).

Factor in our tough schedule and a net rating thay indicates we're better than our record it doesn't look that bad.

Missing IQ is also being downplayed because we have no credible replacement for what he does. We have largely had to run Mitchell and Shead especially without Scottie out there for 48 minutes at PG while they put up 48.7% and 45.2% TS respectively and both shooting 29% from three. They're both major liabilities on offense right now that we have been forced to play.

[nikster]

Exactly, they think the team will get better with the bigger sample size, I think we remain the same. And as for the injury excuse, the Clips, Suns, Grizz, Blazers, and C's have comparable losses from a raw $$ amount and they all have better records.

Raps have lost 17mil and are 2nd, and the C's who are 9th are at 11m. It's important to note that of that 17mil over 5mil of it is BB, who we know would not move the needle a whole lot. So realistically we have IQ who accounts for 6.5mil of that 17mil, and then nothing until KO who is 2.5mil. Also another player that contributes very little to winning.

Meanwhile you have teams like the suns missing beal and KD a decent amount and yet they are 10-8. Sure, we are pretty injured, but most of it has been IQ and then a bunch of players that have little impact. It's just copium.

The numbers aren't really that close. We have a pretty meaningful gap with Memphis whos right behind us, and are about 1.5 x Blazers total.

BB and KO aren't high impact players but the more injuries you have the more those depth injuries hurt, because the guys you end up are replacing them with are that much worse. Like Kelly is way better than Fernando (especially how he first started). Our top 5 leaders in minutes this year are Poeltl, Gradey and Agbaji, RJ and Davion in that order. Davion Mitchell is our 9th man at best but is 5th in total minutes (and might be our 11th best player if you think Walter or Mogbo could be more impactful).

If you want to start nit picking value lost, BB is overpaid but Scottie is on a rookie deal making him massively underpaid. the Suns lost Durant but Beal missed just as much and he is terribly overpaid ($20 million more than Scottie and BB combined).

Factor in our tough schedule and a net rating thay indicates we're better than our record it doesn't look that bad.

Where are you guys even finding this information (games lost vs salary)?

My first thought was Scottie's salary is not reflective of his "$"'s lost.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/injured/_/year/2024/view/team

I saw this for team but didn't see the breakdown for individual, just extrapolated based on contracts.

[dohboy_24]

Lol... some of you need to stop and run the numbers before making your predictions...

Based on their record (5 wins - 14 losses = 26% win rate) and the remaining games in their schedule, the projections for our win-loss record at the end of season are currently:

ESPN: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections

CBS SportsLine: 29 wins - 53 losses
SOURCE: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings/

Bleacher Report: 24 wins - 58 losses
SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144807-every-nba-teams-win-loss-record-prediction-with-remaining-schedule

The Analyst: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://theanalyst.com/2024/11/nba-predictions-2024-25

Sports Betting Dime: 28 wins - 54 losses
SOURCE: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/win-totals-best-odds/

Odds Shark: 25 wins - 57 losses
SOURCE: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

Sounds about right to me...

With 63 games remaining, the Raptors would have to win more than 40% of their remaining games to end up with a record of more than 30 wins.

25% win rate over the next 63 games = 16 wins - 47 losses for a final record of 21 wins - 61 losses
30% win rate over the next 63 games = 19 wins - 44 losses for a final record of 24 wins - 58 losses
35% win rate over the next 63 games = 22 wins - 41 losses for a final record of 27 wins - 55 losses
40% win rate over the next 63 games = 25 wins - 38 losses for a final record of 30 wins - 52 losses
45% win rate over the next 63 games = 28 wins - 34 losses for a final record of 33 wins - 49 losses
50% win rate over the next 63 games = 31 wins - 32 losses for a final record of 36 wins - 46 losses
55% win rate over the next 63 games = 35 wins - 28 losses for a final record of 40 wins - 42 losses

Unless you think we're going to increase our win rate by more than 15% for the rest of the season and end up winning more than 40% of the games we have left to play, the math says we're not going to end up with more than 30 wins.

[PushDaRock]

Lol... some of you need to stop and run the numbers before making your predictions...

Based on their record (5 wins - 14 losses = 26% win rate) and the remaining games in their schedule, the projections for our win-loss record at the end of season are currently:

ESPN: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections

CBS SportsLine: 29 wins - 53 losses
SOURCE: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings/

Bleacher Report: 24 wins - 58 losses
SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144807-every-nba-teams-win-loss-record-prediction-with-remaining-schedule

The Analyst: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://theanalyst.com/2024/11/nba-predictions-2024-25

Sports Betting Dime: 28 wins - 54 losses
SOURCE: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/win-totals-best-odds/

Odds Shark: 25 wins - 57 losses
SOURCE: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

Sounds about right to me...

With 63 games remaining, the Raptors would have to win more than 40% of their remaining games to end up with a record of more than 30 wins.

25% win rate over the next 63 games = 16 wins - 47 losses for a final record of 21 wins - 61 losses
30% win rate over the next 63 games = 19 wins - 44 losses for a final record of 24 wins - 58 losses
35% win rate over the next 63 games = 22 wins - 41 losses for a final record of 27 wins - 55 losses
40% win rate over the next 63 games = 25 wins - 38 losses for a final record of 30 wins - 52 losses
45% win rate over the next 63 games = 28 wins - 34 losses for a final record of 33 wins - 49 losses
50% win rate over the next 63 games = 31 wins - 32 losses for a final record of 36 wins - 46 losses
55% win rate over the next 63 games = 35 wins - 28 losses for a final record of 40 wins - 42 losses

Unless you think we're going to increase our win rate by more than 15% for the rest of the season and end up winning more than 40% of the games we have left to play, the math says we're not going to end up with more than 30 wins.

30 wins gets us to maybe 8th or 9th worse. That might even be good enough for the last play in spot with how pathetic the East looks. Basically, 30 wins would have Tank Nation in shambles.

[ItsDanger]

Some just won't acknowledge other teams are missing players also.

[ArthurVandelay]

Lol... some of you need to stop and run the numbers before making your predictions...

Based on their record (5 wins - 14 losses = 26% win rate) and the remaining games in their schedule, the projections for our win-loss record at the end of season are currently:

ESPN: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections

CBS SportsLine: 29 wins - 53 losses
SOURCE: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings/

Bleacher Report: 24 wins - 58 losses
SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144807-every-nba-teams-win-loss-record-prediction-with-remaining-schedule

The Analyst: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://theanalyst.com/2024/11/nba-predictions-2024-25

Sports Betting Dime: 28 wins - 54 losses
SOURCE: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/win-totals-best-odds/

Odds Shark: 25 wins - 57 losses
SOURCE: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

Sounds about right to me...

With 63 games remaining, the Raptors would have to win more than 40% of their remaining games to end up with a record of more than 30 wins.

25% win rate over the next 63 games = 16 wins - 47 losses for a final record of 21 wins - 61 losses
30% win rate over the next 63 games = 19 wins - 44 losses for a final record of 24 wins - 58 losses
35% win rate over the next 63 games = 22 wins - 41 losses for a final record of 27 wins - 55 losses
40% win rate over the next 63 games = 25 wins - 38 losses for a final record of 30 wins - 52 losses
45% win rate over the next 63 games = 28 wins - 34 losses for a final record of 33 wins - 49 losses
50% win rate over the next 63 games = 31 wins - 32 losses for a final record of 36 wins - 46 losses
55% win rate over the next 63 games = 35 wins - 28 losses for a final record of 40 wins - 42 losses

Unless you think we're going to increase our win rate by more than 15% for the rest of the season and end up winning more than 40% of the games we have left to play, the math says we're not going to end up with more than 30 wins.

22 works for me

[nikster]

Some just won't acknowledge other teams are missing players also.

The irony of posting this right under a conversation comparing our games lost to other teams

[ItsDanger]

Some just won't acknowledge other teams are missing players also.

The irony of posting this right under a conversation comparing our games lost to other teams

"Some". Not post above mine. Maybe look up irony.

[Scase]

Crying when people talk about tanking in other threads, then crying in the tanking thread. Never change.

[YogurtProducer]

Crying when people talk about tanking in other threads, then crying in the tanking thread. Never change.

Whose crying?

[YogurtProducer]

Lol... some of you need to stop and run the numbers before making your predictions...

Based on their record (5 wins - 14 losses = 26% win rate) and the remaining games in their schedule, the projections for our win-loss record at the end of season are currently:

ESPN: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/projections

CBS SportsLine: 29 wins - 53 losses
SOURCE: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/standings/

Bleacher Report: 24 wins - 58 losses
SOURCE: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144807-every-nba-teams-win-loss-record-prediction-with-remaining-schedule

The Analyst: 30 wins - 52 losses
SOURCE: https://theanalyst.com/2024/11/nba-predictions-2024-25

Sports Betting Dime: 28 wins - 54 losses
SOURCE: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/win-totals-best-odds/

Odds Shark: 25 wins - 57 losses
SOURCE: https://www.oddsshark.com/nba/season-win-total-betting-odds

Sounds about right to me...

With 63 games remaining, the Raptors would have to win more than 40% of their remaining games to end up with a record of more than 30 wins.

25% win rate over the next 63 games = 16 wins - 47 losses for a final record of 21 wins - 61 losses
30% win rate over the next 63 games = 19 wins - 44 losses for a final record of 24 wins - 58 losses
35% win rate over the next 63 games = 22 wins - 41 losses for a final record of 27 wins - 55 losses
40% win rate over the next 63 games = 25 wins - 38 losses for a final record of 30 wins - 52 losses
45% win rate over the next 63 games = 28 wins - 34 losses for a final record of 33 wins - 49 losses
50% win rate over the next 63 games = 31 wins - 32 losses for a final record of 36 wins - 46 losses
55% win rate over the next 63 games = 35 wins - 28 losses for a final record of 40 wins - 42 losses

Unless you think we're going to increase our win rate by more than 15% for the rest of the season and end up winning more than 40% of the games we have left to play, the math says we're not going to end up with more than 30 wins.

Considering we have been missing 2/5’s of our starters (if not 3), and our arguably best 2 bench guys for every game this season and the schedule is gonna ease up it’s really not crazy to think we could increase it 15%.

[YogurtProducer]

Some just won't acknowledge other teams are missing players also.

The irony of posting this right under a conversation comparing our games lost to other teams

Danger doesn’t ever like context, it never works for him.

It’s clear we’ve been the most (or at best, 2nd worst behind NOP) injured team in the league.

I don’t know why some of the TWO people have such a hard time comprehending data. It’s not like anyone is saying “I hope we go .500 the rest of the way and finish the season 40-42 in the 10 seed!”. Everyone understands that’s the worst cast scenario.

[ItsDanger]

Some just won't acknowledge other teams are missing players also.

The irony of posting this right under a conversation comparing our games lost to other teams

Danger doesn’t ever like context, it never works for him.

It’s clear we’ve been the most (or at best, 2nd worst behind NOP) injured team in the league.

I don’t know why some of the TWO people have such a hard time comprehending data. It’s not like anyone is saying “I hope we go .500 the rest of the way and finish the season 40-42 in the 10 seed!”. Everyone understands that’s the worst cast scenario.

The context is Raps just beat a decimated Pelicans team. They beat a Sixers team missing Embiid. Let alone what these other teams records would be if they were healthy also. This isn't complicated at all.

[YogurtProducer]

The irony of posting this right under a conversation comparing our games lost to other teams

Danger doesn’t ever like context, it never works for him.

It’s clear we’ve been the most (or at best, 2nd worst behind NOP) injured team in the league.

I don’t know why some of the TWO people have such a hard time comprehending data. It’s not like anyone is saying “I hope we go .500 the rest of the way and finish the season 40-42 in the 10 seed!”. Everyone understands that’s the worst cast scenario.

The context is Raps just beat a decimated Pelicans team. They beat a Sixers team missing Embiid. Let alone what these other teams records would be if they were healthy also. This isn't complicated at all.

And we lost how many 2/3 point games with Barnes/IQ/RJ/KO/BB/Dick injured?

Again, why is that ignored?